(Bloomberg 4/3) Gold bugs see predictions of doom coming true.
RonB
Posts: 636 ✭✭✭✭✭
RonB
Posts: 636 ✭✭✭✭✭
RonB
Posts: 636 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
The public health crisis is the first iceberg, the second one is the financial. How are residents and business going to pay property taxes at the end of July when so many are out of work and there's no revenue coming in? I live in CT and 250k UE claims have been filed in the last 3 weeks, couple that with unions and pensions, 401k's being decimated and everything else, this is Titanic. I'm very concerned it's consuming me, God bless us all.
We'll spend $10 trillion or so and get back on track by late this year.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) may be the next "Big One". China is racing Google, MIcrosoft and Apple. The winner might end up being the loser. Hey brother, can you spare a Yuan?
Gold is good... and pretty too...
There will be some interesting times ahead. No predictions here, just watching from the comfort of home... 
Cheers, RickO
This is not a permanent crisis. Mickey Mouse will again put smiles on little kids faces and Norm will again warm his seat at the bar.
The world is not ending.
Edit after reading article...
No Counterparty
Of course, some of the predictions were always a bit vague. The Armageddon survivalists see gold more as the ultimate haven against generalized risk. As a hard asset, it acts as an inflation hedge. It has deep, liquid markets in which to trade, has kept its value over centuries, and, most importantly, physical metal stored in a vault has no counterparty that can default, not even a government or central bank
They dont get it either.
LOL. HAHA
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
For a guy who denied the coming crisis, you sure did a 180. Contrary to many warnings, the economy was doing just great. debt didn't matter, stock buybacks didn't matter, paycheck to paycheck didn't matter. . . until suddenly it did. If it weren't so sad it would be funny.
unicorns and rainbows.
Your next warning -.QEver, bank deposits, derivatives and, once consumers are free to consume again, inflation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I normally buy 9mm by the 1000 round box for about $300
I get 20 boxes of 50 rounds in the big box for $15/box
If I go to Walmart, I see the same stuff for $20 per box.
If I bought 20 boxes at Walmart it would be $400 for 1000 or 125% of what I payed. (25% higher)
Use that for gold and the price per oz is 25% higher than buying by the kilo.
Price breaks for quantity isn't really suspicious anywhere else.
So far as delivering gold...
They put it on "backorder"
Nothing unusual about that either.
The big guys aren't going to let COMEX crash because it's their cash cow.
Most everybody buys more contracts than they can take delivery of and can't handle margin calls w/o getting frightened.
They will cash out and take a hit.
It's a pump to milk cash out of greedy people who don't have enough bank.
I could pay some South African warlord to disrupt mining and make the price jump or dump my gold and drop it.
It's just a big game...But they like playing and will never let it end.
My Saint Set
There are parallels to Weimar Germany developing now. Weimar was laboring under a crushing debt from Reparations and high post-war unemployment, along with many wounded war veterans living on the street. The Allies, with France as the enforcer seized the Ruhr industrial valley which further destroyed Germany's ability to pay the debt. These factors played into the massive hyperinflation. There was no other way to pay the debt, and the hyperinflation ruined the finances (and lives) of most people who didn't have hard assets.
We have similar phenomena right now, only it's worldwide. Crushing debt. Industrial shutdown. Healthcare systems starting to be, or already overwhelmed. Government is creating "money" via MMT as if there are not going to be any consequences at all. 10 million lost jobs practically overnight. Half the country doesn't have $400 in savings for hard times. It's not hard to see where this is going, and it's not pretty.
Debt is a major problem all over the world. It's instructive to ask, "who are all these debt payments going to?" We don't owe the national debt to ourselves, like some people want to believe. Who receives the debt payments that are going to be financed by never-ending money creation? Think it through and post your answers here. I'd like to see how other people assess the problem.
I knew it would happen.
@derryb said regarding @cohodk: "For a guy who denied the coming crisis, you sure did a 180. Contrary to many warnings, the economy was doing just great."
I think it would be hard to assert that the Coronavirus crisis invalidates Cohodk's assessments of the economy prior to the crisis. My recollection is that Cohodk's assertion was that the US economy was doing well in many sectors and many geographies. Unemployment was low. Many businesses were booming and there was notable innovation and energy.
The naysayers on this board argued, in contrast, that any hint of prosperity was fundamentally an illusion; a "house of cards" of debt was about to collapse; the financial sector was creating undue risk through derivatives; ongoing QE would light the fires of inflation. The implication was that the economy was weak and over-leveraged and would soon collapse due to internal factors.
The emergence of the Coronavirus tells us very little about the state of the economy six months ago.
The emergence of the Coronavirus tells us very little about the state of the economy six months ago.
Unfortunately, now it tells us how crushing debt, weak household finances and a worldwide economic shutdown will impact whole societies.
I knew it would happen.
There will be many crisis, no one has ever denied that.
I deny that world will end though.
Do you think the world is ending?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I dont think anyone is surprised that suspending the global economy would result in difficult financial conditions for many, just as every recession has proven before.
But if you think this is the beginning of a serfdom, then i believe you will be disappointed, just as those who came before you.
You can be of the thought that crisis makes us weaker, or you can believe crisis makes us stronger. You can believe that all is lost, or that opportunity abounds. Or that humankind is weak and puny, or strong and intelligent.
Growth and innovation is born of crisis. We can decide to be defeated, or rise to the challenge.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
if you think this is the beginning of a serfdom, then i believe you will be disappointed, just as those who came before you.
You can be of the thought that crisis makes us weaker, or you can believe crisis makes us stronger. You can believe that all is lost, or that opportunity abounds. Or that humankind is weak and puny, or strong and intelligent.
Growth and innovation is born of crisis. We can decide to be defeated, or rise to the challenge.
I saw a lot of bad mojo going on before this crisis, and I see an amazingly rotten trend going on in the financial system. I plan to make every effort to be stronger, but I see a quickly shrinking middle class, no doubt about it. That should be a major concern to you as well. One of my biggest concerns is that capitalism, real capitalism is being destroyed by tptb for the benefit of the very, very few.
I knew it would happen.
The emergence of the coronavirus proves to us just how weak the economy really was and how ill prepared individuals and entities were for a reduction in income.
Paycheck to paycheck is not the sign of a good economy. Some want to blame the virus, others realize many things could have lit the fuse on such a fragile economy. The effect of the virus on the economy says volumes about the state of the economy six months ago.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Humans are funny creatures..
They adapt.
But this will be a different world on the other side.
For me, some things never change.
Before & after..
Keep a reasonable emergency fund.
Minimal debt.
Diversify savings. Some portion in PM's.
Check in on folks, especially now.
They appreciate it, but won't ask.
Make sure everyone has what they need.
Even people living paycheck to paycheck can adapt to a "reduction". It's the wholesale closing of entire industries that we are dealing with now. When has this ever happened before?
I'm not trying to argue whether or not we have a strong economy or not. I'm still working and see no real economic effect right now. Mostly a blip with some pain in the A trips to the market.
But I know several people living paycheck to paycheck with no savings that have all sorts of unnecessary expenses they could chip off off the list if they really had to. The fact that people feel comfortable blowing all of their paychecks on useless crap because they expect another to come along makes me think that the economy was working for most.
They shut the world down for this virus. We won't know how "strong/weak" this economy was until we have something to compare it to. Or until this is over and we see what/if there is a rebound.
I guess we will have to wait for the next killer virus to come along so we have some data points.
My Ebay Store
Lobotomy, while you were busy listening to Van Halen some guy named Joey Ramone tried to warn you. At least @derryb got rich. Semper Fi! lol
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Refiners to resume work
https://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL8N2BT09A
My Saint Set
When has a segment of society not lived paycheck to paycheck?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Most people have lived paycheck to paycheck for centuries. Our perspective is different due to the enormous wealth in the U.S. in modern times.
Millions of Americans are flush with cash. Millions more struggle to make the rent and put food on the table. Millions more are added to the latter group every year while the former are so flush they blush.
Interesting, that NoOne responding to this thread “lives paycheck to paycheck”
Does that mean we are saved?
OK, I admit it, I am a hoarder.
That includes cash.
I heard someone tell of being able to take a “percentage” with me.
I would guess that compared to typical Americans, participants on this board, regardless of means, tend to be prudent with their money.
People forget one of the reasons immigrants come here...the people living on our streets have standards of living 600% higher than the median for many countries. The G-7 and G-20 will throw $T at this for years, it may not work but it will likely be years before we'll know. It's funny to me that all of the doomsayers are all claiming this event as their own, from hard money people, to zombie lovers, to Skynet to forecasters of the Rapture. All of this gives me hope that we'll come through this. Until we hear about the mass numbers of people giving up their unlimited cellphone plans and 700 of their 800 channels, I won't believe it's over.
Like saying "when has a segment of society not had a virus?"
Nearly 80 percent of American workers (78 percent) say they're living paycheck to paycheck, according to a 2017 report by employment website CareerBuilder. Women are particularly vulnerable: 81 percent of them report living paycheck to paycheck, compared with 75 percent of men.
Yet you deny this is a problem.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I think your "rainbows and unicorns" are ending. I think when the dust settles you will be saying "never thought it would end up this bad" and I will be saying "told ya so, shoulda listened."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
This virus thing may fix a lot of people's mindset about nest eggs and saving for a rainy day. A lot of folks had never seen a rainy day and now they have! Its tough to react to things if you have no frame of reference, well now we have one.
Things are going to be different for a decade or so after this. 911 woke people up to certain things , but we have mostly been dealing with regional disasters that wised up people here and there but this is everyone
Great point
No...i am commenting on your characterization that the economy is in a shambles and forever destroyed.
Global economies were just about to become in sync a few months ago. You better hold on to your nads when this crisis is resolved, because global economies are gonna rip!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The big problem with "paycheck to paycheck" is that a lot of state and local governments are running that way too. They can cut back on services, but they certainly aren't going to lower sales tax rates or property tax rates by any meaningful amount.
When one major entity starts cutting that forces others to cut back as well. Cutbacks beget more cutbacks. Pretty soon everybody wants out, but the exit doors are jammed (the government locked them). This cascading failure can lead to economic depression. So to keep everyone alive (and keep them from defaulting), the government is throwing a lot of money on the problem. But it just isn't enough (so far).
.
Yes, they are going to "rip" (like a bear market rally).
Major flaws of globalization have been exposed by this virus crisis. Localization is a better arrangement anyway.
There you go dcarr, youve identified a problem and offered a solution. Vision. I like it.
So how about some of those supply chains coming back to USA? Lots of job opportunity in the building and operating those supply chains. Good for economy.
And good economy means more tax dollars for the Feds, states, and municipalities. And since folks will feel good about their localized jobs, they wont even mind a slightly higher tax rate which will be even better for the tax collector, which gets spent on projects (jobs) that benefit the common good, which makes people feel even better and they wont mind paying a even sllightly higher tax rate.
And, hopefully, we can even get interest rates a bit higher which savers would feel great about and would spend some of that passive interest income, which would support more jobs and higher taxes.
Good economy, good stock market. Good real estate market. More wealth creation. More money to spend on silver trinkets. Good PM market.
Anybody fired up??!! Lets go make it happen!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Good economy's good. I'm all for that.
Globalization has run into all sorts of problems. But let's not forget why globalization was fostered in the first place.
Besides the boon for poor people it provided (Walmart-cheap stuff for our poor, lots of jobs for their poor, rising standards of living for unprecedented numbers), people envisioned a more interactive and interdependent world: one in which the incentives for people of different cultures' incentives were to cooperate, in which people would interact in much more personal and informed ways, in which the sorts of nationalist rivalries that led to such devastating wars would be mitigated, and in which apocalyptic nuclear (and worse) civilization-ending wars would hopefully be averted.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...