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Heads up on Apmex (and probably a few others)

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,402 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The point of this thread was to call attention to the things that constitute a yellow flag when considering a potential transaction. Things like:

    1) Not delivering on the promised date when it was a pre-order. A pre-order should establish a firm commitment to ship once stock is received. That should be Priority One for any viable company.

    2) Telling customers that an explanation for the delay and an update on the order status would be forthcoming, and then zero followthrough, especially after repeated promises to do so. An explanation has STILL not been provided, and I doubt that one will be provided now.

    Apmex is an authorized US Mint distributor, so they had to meet stringent financial requirements in order to become that. Their business model is sound in terms of profitability, so I previously had no real concerns about their financial position. Their recent performance has been pretty sloppy.

    Points 1 & 2 are EXACTLY the same type of thing that happened to me when both Tulving and NW Territorial Mint were in the process of going down the tubes. Order execution and customer service became very poor.

    I suspect that Apmex is quite busy, scrambling to secure more supplies and trying to maintain a business, BUT when a company starts cutting corners and starts to become less than transparent, something COULD be going on internally. That's the reason for my yellow flag.

    The risks:

    All of this is only a transaction risk to me - not a counterparty risk. The reason for my post was to alert people of a potential transaction risk. The precious metals themselves don't constitute a risk to anyone, other than a market risk in the event of a big move in the market prices, or maybe a security risk if you don't have good security.

    The gold & platinum & silver that I ordered have no counterparty risk to Apmex (or anyone else) - Apmex has already had my funds for several weeks and the payment cleared weeks ago.

    In contrast, the stock market is rife with counterparty risks - the brokerage house who executes your order and then holds the stock in street name, the company behind the stock, the clearinghouse who clears the order, and even the stock exchange itself. All of these entities can experience a disruption or financial difficulties in a down market.

    Gold has no counterparties that affect it's price or value. In my experience, it just sits there being gold.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 29, 2020 11:33AM

    @PerryHall said:

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Those aren't my definitions. I found them on the internet, so they must be true.

    You seem to be having trouble with the concept of "counterparty".

    Gold in-hand has no counterparty. If you believe that it does, please elucidate us. Who is this mysterious counterparty?

    Gold is worthless without a counterparty. Think about it.

    I assume you are referring to someone who is willing to buy your gold as being a counterparty.

    Ding ding ding. And i stated, this was a topic for another thread. It certainly is not a rabbit hole and IMO, is the biggest risk PM stackers face, other than time.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    taxmadtaxmad Posts: 961 ✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    Ding ding ding. And i stated, this was a topic for another thread. It certainly is not a rabbit hole and IMO, is the biggest risk PM stackers face, other than time.

    That isn't counterparty risk, it is market or transnational risk - there may not be someone willing to trade what they have with what you are offering. Could be any item - tulip bulbs, Cabbage Patch Kids, Beanie Babies, Reichmarks, Zimbabwe dollars or Federal Reserve Notes.

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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,804 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 29, 2020 11:56AM

    My understanding of 'counterparty risk' is that it refers to one party of an agreement or contract not being able to follow through. Even the term 'counterparty' infers there is another person involved. If I hold gold, or real estate... or anything else...there is no other person involved, and no contract or agreement. So not sure 'counterparty risk' is the appropriate term.

    Certainly... there is a RISK that when I want to sell in the future, there may not be a buyer willing to meet my selling price... but would seem that is more of a price discovery or what the market will bear rather than a counterparty risk.

    ----- kj
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    MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,312 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Wow, in the history of this forum, I don’t think there has been a word (CP-Risk) that has so many viscous and variable connotations as you all are trying so hard to precisely and narrowly define.
    Oh that’s right, Economics!

    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.
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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,804 ✭✭✭✭✭

    But if holding metals is defined as having counter party risk... so be it. Maybe I've had counter party risk from the day I took my first breath... perhaps all of life has counterparty risk. It's just a word... everyone can define it however they wish.

    ----- kj
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Gold has no counterparties that affect it's price or value.

    Yikes!!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,804 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MilesWaits said:
    Wow, in the history of this forum, I don’t think there has been a word (CP-Risk) that has so many viscous and variable connotations as you all are trying so hard to precisely and narrowly define.
    Oh that’s right, Economics!

    Shows how desperate we have become! Can't go to coin shows... can't go out shopping... can't go outside... nuthin' to do but sit behind this keyboard and argue about what the definition of 'is' is!! or CP!

    ----- kj
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,243 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MilesWaits said:
    Wow, in the history of this forum, I don’t think there has been a word (CP-Risk) that has so many viscous and variable connotations as you all are trying so hard to precisely and narrowly define.
    Oh that’s right, Economics!

    "premium" stirred up a few hornets.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭
    edited March 29, 2020 3:00PM

    As much as I hate APMEX as a collector with their false holder stock photos I’m sure you’ll get your coins.
    With prices going up I’ve had a dealer refund my money claiming he made a mistake 🖕but doubt you’ll get ripped off.

    It’s not like metals are going down in price with causes insolvency at times. APMEX has inventory and they sure aren’t losing money on it. Now if the price was dropping rapidly I’d be worried as they are stuck with inventory they couldn’t sell at their cost. Jmo

    If I brought a stock at $20 it would be hard to go broke if I could suddenly get $40 for it, get real✌️😁

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,243 ✭✭✭✭✭

    curious to see if they suddenly have inventory when premiums start to drop. Wonder if they are just sitting on inventory looking for higher premiums.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    With regard to counterparty risk -- for your amusement, take any two of the following three: counterparty risk, credit risk, default risk.

    Do a Google search on A vs B.

    I think you'll find there are about as many opinions as there are analysts.

    (I have my own views; but, I should dig up references from the CFA syllabus to see if there is any "official" view)

    Higashiyama
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,243 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 29, 2020 3:16PM

    well, it should be obvious that "counterparty" requires two parties.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said "well, it should be obvious that "counterparty" requires two parties."

    I think people agree on that!

    (although they may quibble on the definition of "party")

    Higashiyama
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,243 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Higashiyama said:
    @derryb said "well, it should be obvious that "counterparty" requires two parties."

    I think people agree on that!

    at least one poster to this thread believes otherwise.

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,243 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @Higashiyama said:
    @derryb said "well, it should be obvious that "counterparty" requires two parties."

    I think people agree on that!

    at least one poster to this thread believes otherwise. And he's never wrong. lol

    Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?

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    dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,028 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Gold has a "counterparty" when a futures contract is bought or sold.
    There is no "counterparty risk" at the conclusion of a physical trade.

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    dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,028 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Gold is worthless without a counterparty. Think about it.

    You obviously didn't.

    Think about why gold had value, even 5,000+ years ago.

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:
    Gold has a "counterparty" when a futures contract is bought or sold.
    There is no "counterparty risk" at the conclusion of a physical trade.

    at the conclusion of a physical trade

    And what is involved in this?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @Higashiyama said:
    @derryb said "well, it should be obvious that "counterparty" requires two parties."

    I think people agree on that!

    at least one poster to this thread believes otherwise.

    I think that poster most assuredly believes there needs to be 2 parties. Arrogance creates blindness...open your eyes.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 30, 2020 8:41AM

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:
    Gold is worthless without a counterparty. Think about it.

    You obviously didn't.

    Think about why gold had value, even 5,000+ years ago.

    Gold certainly has had value and Ive never stated otherwise. But obviously you havent thought about it.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    taxmadtaxmad Posts: 961 ✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    counterparty

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Yeah, probably right, :)

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    My gold, in my hands has no counterparty risk.
    My gold, when exchanged for cash has no counterparty risk, unless you want to consider that the cash may be worth zero when I go to spend. And even then, the cash had counterparty risk, not the gold.

    You still not seeing the risk. Oh well.

    I hope your beasts Jmski. Im sure you will.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,028 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:
    Gold is worthless without a counterparty. Think about it.

    You obviously didn't.

    Think about why gold had value, even 5,000+ years ago.

    Gold certainly has had value and Ive never stated otherwise. But obviously you havent thought about it.

    It appears that you will never get it. :neutral:
    So you can ignore what follows.

    Gold has value and uses without needing any counterparties.
    For example, most things made out of copper (plumbing, roofs, flashing, wiring, ornamentation, etc.) would function better if made of gold (due to gold's corrosion resistance and other properties). But gold is too scarce and valued too highly by others for it to be used for most of the things that it is best at.

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:
    Gold is worthless without a counterparty. Think about it.

    You obviously didn't.

    Think about why gold had value, even 5,000+ years ago.

    Gold certainly has had value and Ive never stated otherwise. But obviously you havent thought about it.

    It appears that you will never get it. :neutral:
    So you can ignore what follows.

    Gold has value and uses without needing any counterparties.
    ..... gold is too scarce and valued too highly by others for it to be used for most of the things that it is best at.

    "Too highly valued by others"

    Then there must be counterparties to determine value. How do they determine value?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,892 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 1, 2020 5:30AM

    Overselling. Under delivering. Reads like most businesses I deal with. Lousy business models holding another's money for weeks, and coming with lame excuses, after the fact.

    My sales and delivery beats theirs. Of course I do not sell what I do not have.

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:
    Gold is worthless without a counterparty. Think about it.

    You obviously didn't.

    Think about why gold had value, even 5,000+ years ago.

    Gold certainly has had value and Ive never stated otherwise. But obviously you havent thought about it.

    It appears that you will never get it. :neutral:
    So you can ignore what follows.

    Gold has value and uses without needing any counterparties.
    ..... gold is too scarce and valued too highly by others for it to be used for most of the things that it is best at.

    "Too highly valued by others"

    Then there must be counterparties to determine value. How do they determine value?

    Whats funny about this CuKevin and taxmad?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,028 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It is possible for something to have value only to one person and nobody else.
    VALUE and PRICE are not the same thing.

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    BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 8,102 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If I can't see it,smell it,touch it, I'm not buying it.

    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
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    CuKevinCuKevin Posts: 1,690 ✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:
    Gold is worthless without a counterparty. Think about it.

    You obviously didn't.

    Think about why gold had value, even 5,000+ years ago.

    Gold certainly has had value and Ive never stated otherwise. But obviously you havent thought about it.

    It appears that you will never get it. :neutral:
    So you can ignore what follows.

    Gold has value and uses without needing any counterparties.
    ..... gold is too scarce and valued too highly by others for it to be used for most of the things that it is best at.

    "Too highly valued by others"

    Then there must be counterparties to determine value. How do they determine value?

    Whats funny about this CuKevin and taxmad?

    Your unwillingness to accept a common and correct definition
    Same thing everyone else is laughing about :D

    Choice Numismatics www.ChoiceCoin.com

    CN eBay

    All of my collection is in a safe deposit box!
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Well at least you post a comment rather than just a LOL to every one of my posts. I do appreciate the attention though.

    LOL

    But you bring up a good point. You see, i am not unwilling to accept your definition, rather, i am offering another, which "everyone else" does not, or refuses, to see.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:
    It is possible for something to have value only to one person and nobody else.
    VALUE and PRICE are not the same thing.

    Then how does one place a price on value? Does it vary among everyone? Does it depend upon the situation and perhaps immediacy of the situation?

    Is it possible that you could place a price on gold given a perceived value, while derryb or jmski or cukevin could place another based on their perceived value?

    How is price discovered between counterparties if there is a difference in perceived value?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,402 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Mr. Market places the price. Importantly, there is a huge distinction between the physical price vs. the paper price.

    I would now posit that the physical price = value where there is zero counterparty risk, while the paper price is fraught with counterparty risk.

    This is the source of the intentional misdirection that we are being fed - the real vs. the imaginary crap we see on TV in both the markets and the news.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    taxmadtaxmad Posts: 961 ✭✭✭✭

    You are conflating market and counterparty risk. If I go to sell my gold and nobody wants it, it is due to a lack of a market for that item (tulips, beanie babies, shares in Pets.com) I abandon that transaction and look for alternatives that meet my immediate need. If I enter into a transaction that entails performance by the other party at a future date (install sheetrock in my house, deliver a bushel of wheat or pay off on a life insurance policy when I die) then there is a risk that the other person will not be able to deliver and I will be in a different position I was when I entered into the agreement because I made additional decisions based on the assumption I would have that service/good/money at the date I need. The ability of the counterparty of a transaction to complete that transaction at a future date is the risk. A transaction that exchanges one item of value for another item of value does not carry a risk as both parties have something of value equal to what they gave up

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2, 2020 9:13AM

    If I go to sell my gold and nobody wants it, it is due to a lack of a market

    .
    .

    So, if you go to sell your gold and cannot find another party to effect a transaction, or cannot agree to value, is this not counterparty risk?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,402 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You are conflating market and counterparty risk.

    Who is?

    If I trade physical gold for physical dollars, there's no counterparty risk because nobody's holding the bag, waiting for performance on the other side of the trade.

    If I buy or sell a paper contract, there's counterparties and counterparty risk all over the place.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    bigjpstbigjpst Posts: 3,035 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2, 2020 9:46AM

    @jmski52 said:
    You are conflating market and counterparty risk.

    Who is?

    If I trade physical gold for physical dollars, there's no counterparty risk because nobody's holding the bag, waiting for performance on the other side of the trade.

    If I buy or sell a paper contract, there's counterparties and counterparty risk all over the place.

    Counterparty risk in a physical metals transaction

    The value of the item cannot ever be agreed on and sale never takes place.
    Other party shows up with gun and takes said gold.

    Counterparty risk of holding physical metals

    Some other party determines value at some relationship to spot. What happens if gold is determined by governments and paper investors to be a useless rock. I personally don't make electronic or aerospace components so I cannot find a use for my stash so value to me is 0

    Some other person decides they like my useless rock more than me so they come in my home and take said shiny rock.
    Some bank decides they don't like me having a safe deposit box drills my lock and takes said shiny rock.

    I know everyone here likes to think they are Jason Bourne and says nobody is gonna rob me etc etc. I have said alarm and such and such gun. It can happen no matter how smart or tough you think you are.

    All that said, I like my shiny rocks and shiny round discs. But wouldn't like them as much if the value was 0

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    taxmadtaxmad Posts: 961 ✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    You are conflating market and counterparty risk.

    Who is?

    coho

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bigjpst said:

    Counterparty risk in a physical metals transaction

    The value of the item cannot ever be agreed on and sale never takes place.

    bigjpst gets it.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:

    If I trade physical gold for physical dollars, there's no counterparty risk because nobody's holding the bag,

    Who determines the number of dollars or ounces to trade?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    taxmadtaxmad Posts: 961 ✭✭✭✭

    If that is how you wish to frame it - then every transaction in your life has counterparty risk. Have fun with that...

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,402 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Who determines the number of dollars or ounces to trade?

    Makes no difference. Nobody is left holding the bag, waiting for the other party to make good.

    Counterparty risk in a physical metals transaction
    The value of the item cannot ever be agreed on and sale never takes place.
    Other party shows up with gun and takes said gold.

    That's not a counterparty. Nobody agreed on a transaction.

    Some other party determines value at some relationship to spot. What happens if gold is determined by governments and paper investors to be a useless rock.

    There's no counterparty in this scenario either. There's some market risk, being determined by things out of one's control. But, there's no counterparty and no transaction.

    The other scenarios likewise suffer from the same lack of a counterparty or a transaction.

    Counterparty risk in a physical metals transaction
    The value of the item cannot ever be agreed on and sale never takes place.

    I want $10,000,000 for my ounce of gold. Who's the counterparty? Oh, that's right - there is none.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,645 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2, 2020 1:11PM

    @jmski52 said:

    That's not a counterparty. Nobody agreed on a transaction.

    And there is your risk. Congrats. You finally see it. The risk is there is no counterparty.

    When you wanted to sell your gold, you couldnt. At that time and place it was worthless. Now what are you going to do?

    You need to get rid of your gold, unless you are like dcarr and do plumbing, so what are you going to do? You need to find a counterparty and that counterparty needs to agree to your price. Thats risk. Thats counterparty risk.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,312 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Cats in a bag.

    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.
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    KkathylKkathyl Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2, 2020 2:12PM

    @jmski52 said:
    This should probably apply to all bullion dealers at this point. We know that they all have shipping delays, but this is the same sort of thing that has happened before - right before they stop delivering and go into bankruptcy, i.e., Tulving, NW Territorial Mint.

    Here's my experience. I've had an order in place for awhile - some coins on "pre-order" with a ship date of 3/20. Specifically, some Queens Beasts. Pre-order means that you should get the coins when they arrive at the dealer, right?

    Now, they all show "sold out" even though my pre-order was placed in early March. I've messaged them 3 days running and am getting a runaround, with zero followup on their part.

    Heads-up.

    Pre-order items are items that are going to come from the US mint and go to grading so the delay is based on shipment coming out of one of the big suppliers there’s an issue getting material in the United States because of the coronavirus so I wouldn’t spread rumors of people are actually going bankrupt I’ve never not heard anything about Apmex so don’t know anything about their back deal but I know the state of Florida has just mandated that we don’t have people on staff so that’s going to apply to anybody who’s moving gold silver or whatever unless you’re in with the 7K metals family like me. Dm me to discuss or call

    Best place to buy !
    Bronze Associate member

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