@morgansforever said:
1st confirmed death in Washington state, not good news for all of us.
10,000 people die of the flu every year don't they? And there is a vaccine for flu , which most people don't even get .
seems like a media driven frenzy , if it wasn't repeated every 60 seconds by the media we wouldn't even notice
Media coverage is possibly a bit overblown, but yours is an ignorant statement. This is an extremely infectious virus, and 20% of all cases are critical. This means that when it shows up in a community, it leads to an outbreak, and when there is an outbreak it overloads local hospital facilities (bad news not only for people with the virus but anyone else with medical issues). Of that 20% who are critical, fatality rates are about 10%. Also, unlike the flu, there is evidence that immunity resistance isn’t developed in those who have been sick, as there have been a lot of examples of reinfections. What this means about the development of a vaccine is still unclear.
It’s not useful when people panic without knowing what is actually going on (and there’s plenty of that, though it does create buy opportunities) but also not useful when people spout off about not worrying when there is a real problem, which can lead to a worsening of the spread of the virus. Do your research before you say things.
Possibly? 1 death so far and every channel is a non stop corona panic fountain. Im in Mass I saw about 20 people at the super market wearing masks yesterday
Not “possibly,” these are statistics. On the other hand, I don’t know where you’re getting “1 death” from; thousands of people are documented to have died from this virus since December.
Mass, by the way, has already been on high flu alert for almost a month now as the weather conditions are conducive to the spread of viruses, and the universities have been struggling with high rates of absences because students don’t practice good hygiene (nor do people on the T). That includes simple behaviors like covering your mouth (with an elbow or, yes, a mask) and washing your hands. Or do you not believe in that, either?
1 death in the US right? Not talking china , not talking worldwide 1 death here in the US . In the last two months here in the US how many deaths from seasonal flu?
CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through February 22, 2020, there have been:
32,000,000 – 45,000,000
flu illnesses
14,000,000 – 21,000,000
flu medical visits
310,000 – 560,000
flu hospitalizations
18,000 – 46,000
flu deaths
Let’s run with your numbers then. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt on their veracity, and in favor of your argument I’ll take the high number of hospitalizations and the low number of infections. 560,000/32,000,000 is a 1.75% hospitalization rate. Even during flu season, that adds a lot of workload to our health care system, but it’s very very far from the 20% rate presented by the coronavirus. If the infection rate touches even the bottom estimate of that for the flu (which it may not, we don’t have the population or pop. density of China, and we are closer to spring which may or may not mean anything), that would be 6.4 million hospitalizations in the US. These generally last about 2 weeks and require respiratory machinery, which our facilities are not prepared to accommodate on that scale. The consequences of lack of beds in hospitals during an outbreak like this are a higher mortality rate and generally increased social instability.
My in-laws work in the medical field in China, and in the first days of the outbreak there one of the biggest issues was the general population poo-pooing the severity of the virus based on contemporary numbers of deaths, and instead of listening to advice of the medical professionals (when it wasn’t being censored, but that’s a different issue), refusing to modify their behavior as a preventative measure. This virus has a two week incubation period where the carrier is infectious but not presenting symptoms, so we have all seen how well that attitude worked out for them; at least in the US we have the benefit of advance notice. Why on earth would you think the mortality statistics in the US are a relevant way to assess the nature of this virus?
@morgansforever said:
1st confirmed death in Washington state, not good news for all of us.
10,000 people die of the flu every year don't they? And there is a vaccine for flu , which most people don't even get .
seems like a media driven frenzy , if it wasn't repeated every 60 seconds by the media we wouldn't even notice
corona death rate is 2% of those infected. flu death rate is .2%.
With a death rate 20 times that of the flu and no known vaccine it has the attention it deserves.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
@morgansforever said:
1st confirmed death in Washington state, not good news for all of us.
10,000 people die of the flu every year don't they? And there is a vaccine for flu , which most people don't even get .
seems like a media driven frenzy , if it wasn't repeated every 60 seconds by the media we wouldn't even notice
Media coverage is possibly a bit overblown, but yours is an ignorant statement. This is an extremely infectious virus, and 20% of all cases are critical. This means that when it shows up in a community, it leads to an outbreak, and when there is an outbreak it overloads local hospital facilities (bad news not only for people with the virus but anyone else with medical issues). Of that 20% who are critical, fatality rates are about 10%. Also, unlike the flu, there is evidence that immunity resistance isn’t developed in those who have been sick, as there have been a lot of examples of reinfections. What this means about the development of a vaccine is still unclear.
It’s not useful when people panic without knowing what is actually going on (and there’s plenty of that, though it does create buy opportunities) but also not useful when people spout off about not worrying when there is a real problem, which can lead to a worsening of the spread of the virus. Do your research before you say things.
Possibly? 1 death so far and every channel is a non stop corona panic fountain. Im in Mass I saw about 20 people at the super market wearing masks yesterday
The so called "high mortality" rate of the corona virus appears to be prevalent to those over 70 with serious preconditions not related to the virus. Who is benefiting by the media and online overblown scare?
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
@OPA said:
The so called "high mortality" rate of the corona virus appears to be prevalent to those over 70 with serious preconditions not related to the virus. Who is benefiting by the media and online overblown scare?
The term “high” is relative, but for your statement to have any value you need to clarify what you are comparing. The 70+ bracket and pre-existing conditions bracket have the highest mortality rates of all age/health brackets for this virus, but that isn’t unusual (most things kill a 70 year old smoker easier than say a 30 year old athlete). The coronavirus also has a higher OVERALL mortality rate (all brackets combined) compared to the flu and most other bacterial/viral infections we can expect to encounter in everyday life. It has higher mortality rates, in fact, in most brackets compared to these infections. So again, to steer the conversation away from vague, uncited, and conspiratorial thinking, and having our conclusions embedded in our premises, it is not a “so-called” high rate but a statistically high one.
(Not as high as say, ebola, though, which sits around 50% and would be a genuine cause for mass panic should it start to spread in the US. Which it hasn’t.)
DOW sees biggest one day gain ever. . . on hopes of further FED stimulus. Is it just me, or is their something wrong with this picture? Is this what a strong economy now looks like? The landscape sure has changed since the days of "fundamentals."
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
@OPA said:
The so called "high mortality" rate of the corona virus appears to be prevalent to those over 70 with serious preconditions not related to the virus. Who is benefiting by the media and online overblown scare?
@OPA said:
The so called "high mortality" rate of the corona virus appears to be prevalent to those over 70 with serious preconditions not related to the virus. Who is benefiting by the media and online overblown scare?
3M
anti-globalists (American production hopes)
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
@jmski52 said: The winner is if you are long ( long term high quality bonds)
Long term bonds are like playing a game of "chicken" that revolves around trust in the Fed. Good luck with that.
Meh, investing in a bond ETF diversifies away much of the risk of holding long-term bonds. If the US defaults, I think I'll be worrying about things other than my future retirement.
The biggest bond ETF's have diversified holdings (long-term, short-term, treasuries, corporate etc) and are VERY low cost to own, many have .03% or .04% expense ratios. Take a look at BND, VBMPX etc. as additional interest rate cuts occur, these funds will inevitably make $$$.
@OPA said:
The so called "high mortality" rate of the corona virus appears to be prevalent to those over 70 with serious preconditions not related to the virus. Who is benefiting by the media and online overblown scare?
Cramer was very bullish on Gold and medical device stocks tonight and even more nervous than before the rate cut.
God bless those in TN that lost everything.
@OPA said:
The so called "high mortality" rate of the corona virus appears to be prevalent to those over 70 with serious preconditions not related to the virus. Who is benefiting by the media and online overblown scare?
The term “high” is relative, but for your statement to have any value you need to clarify what you are comparing. The 70+ bracket and pre-existing conditions bracket have the highest mortality rates of all age/health brackets for this virus, but that isn’t unusual (most things kill a 70 year old smoker easier than say a 30 year old athlete). The coronavirus also has a higher OVERALL mortality rate (all brackets combined) compared to the flu and most other bacterial/viral infections we can expect to encounter in everyday life. It has higher mortality rates, in fact, in most brackets compared to these infections. So again, to steer the conversation away from vague, uncited, and conspiratorial thinking, and having our conclusions embedded in our premises, it is not a “so-called” high rate but a statistically high one.
(Not as high as say, ebola, though, which sits around 50% and would be a genuine cause for mass panic should it start to spread in the US. Which it hasn’t.)
it will drop below 1% , you cant trust the numbers at the start , the sample size is too small.
investing in a bond ETF diversifies away much of the risk of holding long-term bonds.
I disagree. The whole debt market is tied together with interest rate derivatives. The whole structure may not collapse (then again - it might), but the only two options are more money creation, which is obviously what's happening as we speak - or much higher taxes (which John Roberts would be happy to authorize).
Trillion dollar deficits are backfilled with money from thin air. That free money does have costs associated with it, (including its unequal distribution and the impact that it has on investment in plant & equipment, i.e. the means of production, i.e., productivity.
If the US defaults, I think I'll be worrying about things other than my future retirement.
The default is ongoing. It just hasn't been declared as a default. Insolvency is when your income can't cover your expenses. The US is insolvent, and the only two options are much higher taxes or money creation. We know that much higher taxes won't be acceptable to most breathing taxpayers.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
Let’s run with your numbers then. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt on their veracity, and in favor of your argument I’ll take the high number of hospitalizations and the low number of infections. 560,000/32,000,000 is a 1.75% hospitalization rate. Even during flu season, that adds a lot of workload to our health care system, but it’s very very far from the 20% rate presented by the coronavirus. If the infection rate touches even the bottom estimate of that for the flu (which it may not, we don’t have the population or pop. density of China, and we are closer to spring which may or may not mean anything), that would be 6.4 million hospitalizations in the US. These generally last about 2 weeks and require respiratory machinery, which our facilities are not prepared to accommodate on that scale. The consequences of lack of beds in hospitals during an outbreak like this are a higher mortality rate and generally increased social instability.
My in-laws work in the medical field in China, and in the first days of the outbreak there one of the biggest issues was the general population poo-pooing the severity of the virus based on contemporary numbers of deaths, and instead of listening to advice of the medical professionals (when it wasn’t being censored, but that’s a different issue), refusing to modify their behavior as a preventative measure. This virus has a two week incubation period where the carrier is infectious but not presenting symptoms, so we have all seen how well that attitude worked out for them; at least in the US we have the benefit of advance notice. Why on earth would you think the mortality statistics in the US are a relevant way to assess the nature of this virus?
corona death rate is 2% of those infected. flu death rate is .2%.
With a death rate 20 times that of the flu and no known vaccine it has the attention it deserves.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Why didn't you stop me and say hi?
The winner is if you are long ( long term high quality bonds)
Long term bonds are like playing a game of "chicken" that revolves around trust in the Fed. Good luck with that.
I knew it would happen.
The so called "high mortality" rate of the corona virus appears to be prevalent to those over 70 with serious preconditions not related to the virus. Who is benefiting by the media and online overblown scare?
The term “high” is relative, but for your statement to have any value you need to clarify what you are comparing. The 70+ bracket and pre-existing conditions bracket have the highest mortality rates of all age/health brackets for this virus, but that isn’t unusual (most things kill a 70 year old smoker easier than say a 30 year old athlete). The coronavirus also has a higher OVERALL mortality rate (all brackets combined) compared to the flu and most other bacterial/viral infections we can expect to encounter in everyday life. It has higher mortality rates, in fact, in most brackets compared to these infections. So again, to steer the conversation away from vague, uncited, and conspiratorial thinking, and having our conclusions embedded in our premises, it is not a “so-called” high rate but a statistically high one.
(Not as high as say, ebola, though, which sits around 50% and would be a genuine cause for mass panic should it start to spread in the US. Which it hasn’t.)
DOW sees biggest one day gain ever. . . on hopes of further FED stimulus. Is it just me, or is their something wrong with this picture? Is this what a strong economy now looks like? The landscape sure has changed since the days of "fundamentals."
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
The media.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I knew that silver is antibacterial and I wondered whether or not it is also antiviral. Apparently, it is. Colloidal silver.
Interesting...
I knew it would happen.
Meh, investing in a bond ETF diversifies away much of the risk of holding long-term bonds. If the US defaults, I think I'll be worrying about things other than my future retirement.
The biggest bond ETF's have diversified holdings (long-term, short-term, treasuries, corporate etc) and are VERY low cost to own, many have .03% or .04% expense ratios. Take a look at BND, VBMPX etc. as additional interest rate cuts occur, these funds will inevitably make $$$.
gold is in a free climb....
Me, thanks for askin...
Cramer was very bullish on Gold and medical device stocks tonight and even more nervous than before the rate cut.
God bless those in TN that lost everything.
I'm not assessing the virus , I'm saying turn your TV news off and never turn it back on , be it virus o
it will drop below 1% , you cant trust the numbers at the start , the sample size is too small.
investing in a bond ETF diversifies away much of the risk of holding long-term bonds.
I disagree. The whole debt market is tied together with interest rate derivatives. The whole structure may not collapse (then again - it might), but the only two options are more money creation, which is obviously what's happening as we speak - or much higher taxes (which John Roberts would be happy to authorize).
Trillion dollar deficits are backfilled with money from thin air. That free money does have costs associated with it, (including its unequal distribution and the impact that it has on investment in plant & equipment, i.e. the means of production, i.e., productivity.
If the US defaults, I think I'll be worrying about things other than my future retirement.
The default is ongoing. It just hasn't been declared as a default. Insolvency is when your income can't cover your expenses. The US is insolvent, and the only two options are much higher taxes or money creation. We know that much higher taxes won't be acceptable to most breathing taxpayers.
I knew it would happen.
Dang... Rhodium went up by around $1200 today. I wish I had more. I'd be Rhich.