Which would you rather have......

VintagemanEd

For future value percentage wise in the next 2-5 years let’s say. If you could by some quantity of any of these which is better.
01 Pujols UD psa 10
01 Pujols Topps Chrome Traded psa 9
89 Griffey fleer psa 10
89 Griffey UD psa 9
89 Randy Johnson UD psa 10
98 Manning bowman chrome psa 10
98 Manning Topps chrome psa 10

What’s your vote?

soxaddict

You can’t go wrong with 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. PSA 9.

craig44

I would go with the upper deck griffey

1951WheatiesPremium

My two cents...

First, I am biased toward baseball. I have been hearing about a coming explosion in vintage football and basketball for years that has never materialized. Good value increase, for sure, though no ‘explosion.’ Doesn’t mean it will never happen, just that it hasn’t despite being predicted for 20 years.

Everybody thinks Albert Pujols sucks now (at this precise moment) so his cards are a little undervalued; in 6 years, I d bet he’ll be the 2nd 100% elected player and even if not he’ll be placed his proper context as a top 10 player all time and inner circle Hall of Famer.

Jeter underwent a similar track and we all see where his cards are now as we head to hall of fame - buying at the end of a hall of fame career BEFORE they retire - and tack on a few mediocre seasons - often offers a pretty good discount from peak values of career prime and lead up to Hall of Fame.

Methinks there’s good value there that won’t be there much longer...

ReggieCleveland

Well, which is it? Because if your plan is to hold for 2 years the answers are entirely different than if your plan is to hold for 5 years. Honestly, if you're looking to flip in 2 years you should be looking at players that are either prospects or have less than two years of pro experience under their belt. That's where you're going to see movement.

I think there's a very good chance that all of the cards you listed are about the same price they are now in two years. Pujols is 7 years away from being elected into the HOF. My guess is we're 5 to 5.5 years away before the collective as a whole starts the "I should probably get a Pujols rookie" wave, and this is coming from someone who just recently bought a Pujols rookie. I bought a cheap one and then read somewhere where someone pointed out to me that it was going to be 7 years before he gets inducted and I was like "what the hell am I doing this now for?"

Don't get me wrong, I agree with Tim 100%. Prices will almost certainly never be lower. I just don't see anything moving them up for years to come. Why blow my money on this now when they'll be around for me later? I need to focus on stuff that is either going to move outside of my price range soon or scratches an itch that I need to have scratched.

If your goal is nothing more than to make money over the next 2, 3, 4, or 5 years, those are really bad options to choose from. If you want to collect them, just buy one of each and move on to something else.

Arthur

remedylane

@ReggieCleveland said:
Well, which is it? Because if your plan is to hold for 2 years the answers are entirely different than if your plan is to hold for 5 years. Honestly, if you're looking to flip in 2 years you should be looking at players that are either prospects or have less than two years of pro experience under their belt. That's where you're going to see movement.

I think there's a very good chance that all of the cards you listed are about the same price they are now in two years. Pujols is 7 years away from being elected into the HOF. My guess is we're 5 to 5.5 years away before the collective as a whole starts the "I should probably get a Pujols rookie" wave, and this is coming from someone who just recently bought a Pujols rookie. I bought a cheap one and then read somewhere where someone pointed out to me that it was going to be 7 years before he gets inducted and I was like "what the hell am I doing this now for?"

Don't get me wrong, I agree with Tim 100%. Prices will almost certainly never be lower. I just don't see anything moving them up for years to come. Why blow my money on this now when they'll be around for me later? I need to focus on stuff that is either going to move outside of my price range soon or scratches an itch that I need to have scratched.

If your goal is nothing more than to make money over the next 2, 3, 4, or 5 years, those are really bad options to choose from. If you want to collect them, just buy one of each and move on to something else.

Arthur

Sound words here from Arthur. My take is what will the hobby be like in 7 years? I would be willing to bet the vast majority of us on this forum are aged 35 and up. I know the hobby is hot now. I know some kids are mildly interested in cards. But it doesn't seem to be anything like it was when we were kids. Hell, were the ones buying the majority of the new cards I'd guess.

As an antiques buff/dealer I see it all the time where an items collectors either already have the piece, or the collector base starts to die off. I've had many pieces that were worth double and triple 10 years ago vs what they are now. Now I'm not trying to kill off cards. They have never really died.. Especially the HOFers. I still think it's crazy what some of the more modern HOFers go for vs what some of the older and arguably more rare ones go for. Sorry for rambling, just thinking out loud and wondering where our hobby will actually be a decade from now.

ndleo

Along Remedy's point, right now a lot of collectors in the hobby grew up during the crazy late 1980's - 1990's. I was a young man a few years out of school when I joined the board 20 years ago. The majority of my spending occurred in the early 2000's to now. Do I think I have 20 years more in the hobby? Honestly NO. I'm probably closer to the end of my peak collecting run. That doesn't mean I'm going to have a garage sale but I find myself net/net pruning cards rather than adding.

The one thing that gives me hope is that the retail product game has really improved since I started collecting. Those sub-$50 products allows younger collectors to play the game. In fact I've have found retail more enjoyable and profitable than most hobby. Anyone that was lucky enough to get modern Panini retail BKB knows what I mean. The only sad part is watching a fat 40+ yr old in sweatpants knock over kids to get every last Mega box at Target.......and no I don't wear sweatpants to Target!

remedylane

Same here. I'm 43. My heyday was the early 80s till the early 2000s. I stepped away from collecting until a few years ago. I still would not consider myself a hardcore collector. I am mainly just collecting rookies of my favorite modern day players and collecting things I couldnt afford years ago. And also grading some of my personal cards from years ago.

I was not at all implying the hobby will die. Just that I wonder what will happen. I don't see today's kids as being into it as we were. Technology wins kids now. Trust me, I'm raising 3 of them.

1951WheatiesPremium

@remedylane said:
Same here. I'm 43. My heyday was the early 80s till the early 2000s. I stepped away from collecting until a few years ago. I still would not consider myself a hardcore collector. I am mainly just collecting rookies of my favorite modern day players and collecting things I couldnt afford years ago. And also grading some of my personal cards from years ago.

I was not at all implying the hobby will die. Just that I wonder what will happen. I don't see today's kids as being into it as we were. Technology wins kids now. Trust me, I'm raising 3 of them.

There’s some appeal for millennials with the public nature of the Registry - young people love the gilded life.

You also described to a T what gives me hope; more and more 40 year olds with growing kids doing exactly as you said - getting the cards they wanted as kids.

I think more will...

JoeBanzai

@soxaddict said:
You can’t go wrong with 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. PSA 9.

I love the card, but in today's market I would only want a 10, so I pick the 01 Pujols UD psa 10.

maddux69

I would go for the Manning Bowman Chrome in PSA 10 much for the same reason as JoeB above. Its nice to have the best card of a HOF'er in top grade.