Going to the Dublin International Coin Fair next month! Anyone else going? Advice request.
Clio
Posts: 488 ✭✭✭✭✭
Hello! I just wanted to check and see if anyone here would be attending next months show in Dublin Ireland and get some advice as well.
I collect namely Irish Shillings. Specifically 10 dates from 1928-1942 that were minted in silver. For those familiar with the series you know they can be hard to find in high grade. Because of this there's not a lot of data to review when buying examples. This poses a bit of a hurdle for me. So let's discuss the coin in question.
1937 Ireland Shilling is the key date of the series. One in particular that I was intending to pick up. Ideally as nice as I can afford which might not get me far. First off PCGS only lists 5 coins in total graded in Mint State. A 62, 3 64s and a single 65. Of these I can only find 2 auction records.
An auction in 2004 sold one MS64 for $1,150. Seen here:
https://coins.ha.com/itm/ireland/world-coins/ireland-republic-shilling-1937-harp-bull-s-6635-km6-ms64-pcgs-the-rarest-lowest-mintage-irish-shilling-in-choice-condition-t/a/340-15266.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
An auction in 2011 sold one MS64 for $1,610. Seen here:
https://coins.ha.com/itm/ireland/ireland-republic-shilling-1937-/a/3012-24852.s?hdnJumpToLot=1&x=0&y=0
As far as NGC goes there's 11 in their pop reports in MS. A 61, 3 62s, 2 63s, 2 64s and 3 65s.
As far as auction results and listings:
This example sold in 2016 a MS62 for $1,116.
https://coins.ha.com/itm/ireland/world-coins/ireland-free-state-shilling-1937-ms62-ngc-/a/3046-30230.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
This particular coin has been listed on eBay awhile for $1,500 here:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Rare-1937-Ireland-Silver-1-Shilling-Bull-Harp-NGC-MS62/232601358814
This examples stands to be the most recent example to sell at auction in 2018. A NGC MS62 for $780.
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-BGHQ5/ireland-shilling-1937-ngc-ms-62
And finally there's a MS61 Listed on eBay for $2,100 as we speak. here:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1937-Ireland-Republic-1-Shilling-Silver-Coin-MS-61-NGC-Low-Mintage-Key-Date-KM-6/253138928027
That leaves us with raw examples. Of which I only know one which is worth mentioning.
http://www.irishcoins.com/?id=141 This particular example shown asking quite a large premium over past sales. However the coin is very elusive so I suppose there's a customer for it. $3,500.
I would say I would be very surprised to see any of the slabbed examples at the show. Perhaps there will be some we shall see. My question is what do y'all think my budget should be on a nice example and what should my goal grade wise be? I see a total of 16 coins between the two companies graded so I am up in the air on whether or not to be particularly picky about the number grade. I certainly would prefer a 63 or 64 but I am unsure if one appeared if I could afford it. The 61 and 62 on eBay are not attractive to me and I do tend to avoid them. My budget is relatively small compared to many on the forums. I am a bit apprehensive because I will likely never get to attend an Irish coin show in the future as I will likely move after this year. I don't know how this impacts my chances to make the purchase.
If you don't have any specific advice I would just as well like to hear advice for your run of the mill collector going to their first big show. Should I carry cash? Will people be accepting card? etc.
https://numismaticmuse.com/ My Web Gallery
The best collecting goals lie right on the border between the possible and the impossible. - Andy Lustig, "MrEureka"
Comments
Cash is King. I would say you would have the best chance of finding a nice raw coin at the show as anywhere. Are you comfortable with your grading skills? Only you know what you are willing to pay and as you have shown the price range is pretty wide. I would be hoping to buy 1 for less than your lowest price realized and go from there depending on how nice it is if you find one.
I am reasonably confident I could buy a problem free one raw but not so confident I could buy a MS vs AU example raw. Sliders are difficult for me to differentiate. So not sure what raw price should be in comparison. 75% of graded? 50%?
https://numismaticmuse.com/ My Web Gallery
The best collecting goals lie right on the border between the possible and the impossible. - Andy Lustig, "MrEureka"
Hmmmm, If this is the case that will cripple your ability to buy if you want to play it safe. If I really want something and am confident of the grade I will pay close to what a graded coin will sell for. Of course when you step up the ladder in MS grades you would want to pad yourself a grade...if I think it's a 64 pay 63 type money unless a deal is struck based on what it would grade.
Would you be happy with an AU58? Many are worth 62 or 63 money if they are very attractive.
Edit to add: I'm more or less just giving you food for thought!
No experience with a European show but I've been to big ones in the US and Japan.
Looks like you have done your homework re: pricing. Which is smart and really can inform your actions.
As for it being your first big show, I still remember the first time I walked into a Baltimore show and it was super surreal and was hard to know where to start.
If you can get a dealer list and a bourse map ahead of time you can circle the 'most likely' dealers and make a preliminary plan for which tables to hit first.
First maybe take a nice stroll around the periphery to get a feel for the flow, then hit the short list of dealers. After that start table by table in an orderly fashion so you don't miss anyone. I'd 'budget' the first couple hours (not sure how big the show is actually, so adjust accordingly) to be laser focused on this coin. After that is taken care of, then do another leisurely stroll and hit every table just to see all the other cool material.
Cash is great, but as I generally have far to travel (and have taken to using the train/public transportation more to get to the big shows), I don't like carrying as much.
Fortunately my checks are usually well accepted and I often go to the same dealers so they are okay with it...and a few times I've had them carefully check my ID/get my contact numbers. Other times asked other dealers who I knew etc. I can't remember the last time I used a card at a show for a smaller transaction. I've done it, but it's been a long time. And I would fully expect to pay more for the privilege as they have fees to cover and do incur some risk there. At least my check they can compare to my DL vs. what's on the check.
I don't know if Europe feels differently about cash vs. checks vs. cards. Hard to go wrong with cash unless you are in the US and get stopped by some local law authority that decides you fall under civil asset seizure/forfeiture because only a drug dealer would carry 'too much' cash.
Back to The Coin. I'd spend the first few hours laser focused on looking for that one. Look at every one you can first with your short list of dealers and if you haven't found it yet, then expand to the rest. You might find you are more comfortable with self grading the nice AU vs. MS. If you aren't, don't worry about it. Maybe this isn't the time/place for you to make 'the find'. Be prepared to walk away with cash in your pocket especially if you find you are still unsure of judging a raw coin yourself.
Price-wise, you know the market of what people ask vs. what sells. Obviously the coins on eBay are languishing and the price is too high. The more recent solds of lower MS ones are a good guide and set that as your mental price--you know that market. The higher graded ones with old sales, well that depends on the market. I suspect they'd sell for quite a bit more nowadays.
Depending on your goals I'd take enough cash to buy what you are after. Would you be happy with a great eye appeal slider? Or do you want the elusive MS? Is a 61/62 going to satisfy you or do you want a gem or near gem for the prize coin in your collection? Do you NEED the TPG, is this a commonly counterfeited coin? Are you planning on slabbing, and if so do you want to pay a premium to have it in the slab of your choice? There are plenty of coins I buy in slabs just so I'm not trying to weigh/caliper coins in real time.
In the end, set in your mind your actual budget. Decide if the coin will be 'enough' for you. Then look at all the coins you can and see if one speaks to you. Take note of dealers that might be able to get you that coin in the future or who you might want to do business with. Don't feel like you have to buy one just because it is there. But don't hesitate to make a decision if you see one you like.
I lived in Dublin and attended this show for years. It’s small, lots of “stuff”. Talk to Chris Denton and Del Parker as your best shots.
Latin American Collection
That was what I was afraid of! I have contacted Chris Denton but no reply as of late. I did buy a coin off your recommendation of him before and it's easily the nicest Shilling in my set! I will find him first off to speak with him. Del Parker has nice stuff but I can't afford it.
I think at the end of the day it will all end up being about eye appeal. A MS62 is OKAY if it looks nice for the grade. The one on eBay for example looks terminal and unattractive imo. Whereas the one that sold on Stacks looked nice but a bit more like an AU imo. I think what you said about the dealers makes the most sense for me here. To just secure the line for future deals seems great. I hope I can meet some folks and make a decent impression.
https://numismaticmuse.com/ My Web Gallery
The best collecting goals lie right on the border between the possible and the impossible. - Andy Lustig, "MrEureka"
I have been there, but it was over 20 years ago. I think cash is your best bet. As the Germans say "Bar ist wahr". You should be able to get euros from the ATM if you don't want to carry cash while traveling. Chris Denton takes sterling, too, if I remember.
Pacific Northwest Numismatic Association
Denton hopefully is still active. He is an older guy and may be slowing down.
Latin American Collection
Del is onna the higher priced types. The only time I was able to buy something from him was when I didn't have my books with me and took his word for the catalogue prices. Well, let's just say I was unhappy and p*ssed when I got home and looked and never ever look at his stuff anymore to this day. Maybe he has changed as this was 15 or 20 years ago.