2020 Hobby Predictions
balco758
Posts: 1,415 ✭✭✭✭✭
2020 shaping up to be interesting. Election year / 4th year of Presidential cycles can be challenging to the economy.
What does your crystal ball say:
- Will there be a pullback on prices?
- Does unopened continue to rise?
- Does interest rise in previously lower interest years (thinking years such as 74, 76-77, 80-81, Judy a few examples). Also, the somewhat forgotten HOFers from 1960s.
Other predictions?
Steve
0
Comments
1 and 2 will go the way of the economy. If it continues to do well, you won’t hear from Chris.
I think that older unopened continues to go up, as people realize how relatively rare things are (like say an unopened 1961 Topps wax pack) compared to a PSA 10 of any of the big names from that set. 1970's unopened has been jumping pretty good, and I think that continues. I think that 1980's unopened starts to level off a bit after increasing quite a bit in the last 12-18 months.
kevin
I think there are a handful of cards like the 1986 Fleer Jordan and the 89 Upper Deck Griffey Jr. that are good barometers of the strength of the card market. Both cards are very strong and I think this bodes well for cards in general.
There was an interview last year with Gary V where he said a lot of the sneaker heads were going to get into cards. In the past month I have become more educated on just how much money is moving around in the shoe market and the depth of the participants. I think his forecast sounds very rational and this could bring a lot of new buyers into the market.
At this point the markets are convinced that Trump will win re-election and so unless something radical changes I don't see the political climate being a headwind for the economy. With how far left some of the candidates have gone their poll numbers have fallen significantly and so that risk appears off the table.
PSA continues to have massive backlogs and to me this is very important to the continued strength of the card market. If people are investing money in getting cards graded that means they have a belief that their investment will payoff and that type of sentiment is bullish.
For the cards I collect the number of new high grade copies finding their way into the market has really slowed the past few years and so for areas that are more niche supply is a huge factor in price performance and this is a tailwind at this point.
The job market remains incredibly strong and there are no signs of this changing and as long as people are employed and earning more money they will want to do something with it. Income growth is very strong and this is a by product of the tight labor conditions and once more just adds fuel to the fire.
One of the things I think that is really creating more interest in cards is the onslaught of content on social media. Every time I see a Griffey Jr. video get shared I think damn I forgot just how awesome he was. Someone goes to EBAY and says oh man I want to grab one of the cards I had when I was younger.
I have never totally understood the unopened market because of the inverse correlation between what is inside and what it sells for but generally speaking with so many packs being busted it certainly helps from a supply standpoint and there is no question there have been big gains there and unless collectors sour overnight on this segment I can't really see things changing.
Overall I am bullish.
Good luck with your collections next year everyone.
Personally I don't like unopened; I never met a pack I didn't want to shred. With that said though, I too will say unopened prices will continue to rise. Supply and demand. There seems to be growing interest in collecting unopened product and conversely, vintage packs are being opened every day. Seems like a recipe for growing prices/values. I also agree with @tulsaboy that the older unopened will see the greatest gains.
Yaz Master Set
#1 Gino Cappelletti master set
#1 John Hannah master set
Also collecting Andre Tippett, Patriots Greats' RCs, Dwight Evans, 1964 Venezuelan Topps, 1974 Topps Red Sox
My take:
1) prices for popular stars will continue to rise in all sports (Ruth, Jordan, Brady, etc.)
2) Unopened continues to have strong demand although I own none.
3) I have been collecting the NFL Top 100 player Rookie cards and feel you can get 50’s & 60’s player cards for low prices. Not sure if collectors will flock to vintage football, but I like it 🏈
I think that eventually the interest and price of autos will decrease, not sure if it will be 2020 or shortly thereafter. We have already seen it with "relic" cards. the market is only so big. It will only support so many autos of even popular players. Think of the 10's of thousands of Trout autos on the market, and every year thousands upon thousands more are produced.
I think vintage unopened will continue to increase
I think Basketball cards will continue to increase with the rich foreign investors.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
-as many others have previously posited, unopened will continue to rise - with 83 and earlier leading the way
-my regret for straying into modern in 2017 will continue to increase.
-and one that I have noticed, Heritage and Archives will continue their decline trend in $$ value proposition - I got into modern at the peak with a lot of others and since then Archives and Heritage have fallen off
I am far from an authority, these are my, likely, provincial observations of the small section of the hobby in which I am active
Hope that the hobby stays strong and generates some positive press relative to the 2019 headlines that were made.
John
I predict that the hobby gains strength and popularity in 2020. As always though, buy smart!
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
With a strong economy, I predict...
1) A continued rise in the elite HOFers in highest grade condition. People always want the best of the best. Borderline HOFers and stars will trend sideways.
2) Unopened from 1986 and older will continue to rise across all sports. Collectors love to display this stuff and hold the “what if” from their childhood. Everyday there are more singles and less unopened. The fastest percentage rise in prices will be 1975-1980 baseball.
3) Off years without major rookies or borderline HOF cards will trend sideways unless there is a near possibility of HOF inclusion (e.g. Mattingly, McGwire).
Regardless, collect what you love and you will always be happy with what you have.
I predict....
-Low to mid grade vintage will command ever increasing prices especially for star power cards (for this example vintage meaning pre-1978).
-Raw will become ever more popular as the average collector will become disillusioned with the whole grading process and the baggage that seems to go with it these days. Those collectors will start doing their homework once again and educating themselves on the cards they are collecting for the fun of it and not for investment potential and buy cards they know to be genuine and untouched.....like they did back in the day.
-The National will have at least two arrests
-The hobby will continue to see record numbers of collectors as the draw of hitting a decent card in packs that have a varied price point will continue to attract them. As much as I am not a fan of the new stuff, many collectors certainly are and ripping packs will continue to be a popular past time.
-I may be Captain Obvious here but we will continue to see more breakers in the hobby especially those who have a name to draw collectors to their breaks. Think Phil Hughes and how his YouTube videos are blowing up. People are seeing what he is doing and this will draw even more "names" to this area of the hobby.
-Trump will most certainly win re-election (This is not a political statement but rather a statement on the impact of the economy) and the economy will continue to be strong allowing collectors to use a portion of their disposable income on their hobby.
-Although more cards that have been tampered with will be uncovered, there will be little to no impact on the hobby in terms of high end card sales. The registry is a powerful drug and will continue to be so.
-I will near 90% completion of my 1956 Topps baseball set by the end of 2020.
Drew Brees cards will experience a sharp increase at some point in 2020, similar to sharp increases we have seen for Griffey, Jeter, Jordan, etc....he holds like 75 records and more are going to drop in the next couple years, yet I still get the feeling many don't view him as being in the upper echelon of all-time QBs...thinking that is going to change in a big way
The Facebook group "Vintage Football Cards" will hit 6,000 members by the end of 2020. The baseball card collectors will watch in horror as the prices of vintage football cards start to rise, slowly at first, but eventually over taking their baseball counterparts, and becoming the king of cards. All 6,000 members will throw their heads back and scream a war cry before we descend from atop our mountain and attack the baseball groups, eliminating them and their old skinny pre-war cards with the never ending stats. The blood will run deep that day, my friend .. as we burn the villages and pilfer our just rewards. Moo Hoo Haa haa .
Oops ... Was I saying that out loud?
Sorry, I meant .. Happy Holidays to everyone .. and peace on earth.
And of course just like the year itself, hindsight will be 2020.
>
Post wasnt aimed at either party, rather a general consensus to the question posed as to what transpires with our economy.
As for my political views, I agree with keeping it hobby related:
Predictions:
HHOF: Iginla, Alfredsson, Mikhailov
Isn't this all a moot point until our resident expert comes online to tell us exactly where the market is going (Mr Crisser)?? Then of course we do the exact opposite
Work in progress - Unopened Racks/Cello/Wax with star power for Baseball, Football and Basketball
Collecting unopened 80's boxes and graded packs
I may be hoarding too much 80's junk wax but I like it!
Heritage will be quite popular even if it is overproduced. Hopefully they won't have so many plain spring training backgrounds. They're boring to look at.
High end, limited production art cards will gain popularity as they become more visible and mainstream collectors continue to get priced out of their vintage wish lists. Perhaps an art card registry or encapsulation service?
I definitely believe raw cards will begin to show up more frequently in the under 250.00 dollar range.
Sellers of quality commons and regional stars in high grade will begin listing them on line in increasingly visible venues.
"You've gotta be a man to play this game...but you'd better have a lot of little boy in you, too"--Roy Campanella
Where is the Crisser and his doom and gloom?
Prediction for the low-value set building items (slim-margin, small market stuff):
I think it a fair assumption that the pop quantities of commons from latter 1960's through modern will stop changing. 9's are easy to find for less than grading fees for the most part, and potential 10's likely won't be subbed since it is cost-prohibitive. I think that sales prices will rise for PSA 7's and 8's for sets where the supply isn't as readily available. For example, with the more overproduced 70's OPC baseball (e.g., 1st (low#) series '72; '73; '77-'79), and much of the 1980's OPC as well, if PSA 7 commons were at approx. $5 and PSA 7 stars were approx. $12, I'd see it possible to see them move to the $10-12 range for PSA 7's-8's commons and $16-18 range on NM 7 stars because there is not as much graded supply at this point, and looking ahead at bulk submission fees, it won't make financial sense to sub them anymore. In turn there would be a related jump in the few 9's & 10's out there. Obviously the key RC's and top-tier HOF'ers from each year will still get subbed in the future, but anything lower than that in the player hierarchy will be stagnant on the pop report.
I'm also guessing we'd see a higher than usual rise in sales prices for PSA 10 early 90's junk wax HOF RC's as another fallout effect from increasing grading fees, while 9's struggle to be worth the shipping cost.
Multiple Choice
A) Picking our the perfect hotel and room in AC for the coming National.
. Gibson’s, dude.
C) Poolside mackin chicks.
D) Way ahead of the curve
E) All of the above (despite it not being physically possible)
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Maybe it will take until 2021, but I am guessing at some point the buyers of cards like this will realize that it probably wasn't the best idea at that price point:
https://ebay.com/itm/LUKA-DONCIC-2018-19-Panini-Prizm-Silver-Rookie-PSA-10-GEM-MINT-RC-Prizms-/333430972943?hash=item4da208e20f%3Ag%3A1AMAAOSw8LNd7cTP&nma=true&si=qKjz6u1Ti1CAzmENOqgroZuG6nk%253D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
You forgot the this one
In the basement at Mom's house, complaining that he wanted Hot Pockets, not Pizza Bites!. At the same time playing Qbert on his Sega Dreamcast, And upset because his AOL account won't allow him to dial in using his 9600 baud modem anymore so that he can log into the CU forum
Work in progress - Unopened Racks/Cello/Wax with star power for Baseball, Football and Basketball
Collecting unopened 80's boxes and graded packs
I may be hoarding too much 80's junk wax but I like it!
I predict my wife making me live in a tent due to purchasing too many Joe Louis cards and Jack Daniels will become my best friend. "Go away, nobody's home!"
I predict his posting numbers will be more than down 20% next year versus last year 😉
KC
That literally might be a picture of me. Where did you find it?
No. His name has got to be matt, right?
That would be appropriate, but sadly, no (at least if it's me).
The lead up?
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Notice his beer remains upright the whole time...impressive!
He gets noticed.
I've also been training the rat that lives in our wall, to steal from my wife's purse.
Fwiw the PWCC indexes all show that prices are flat since 2016. And thats with all of the cash flowing into non financial assets the past few years. I’m not making any predictions but would assume if and when this asset bubble pops it will get a bit ugly. I wouldn’t want to have a large portion of my investments in sportscards
Totally Disagree. 2016 was an aberration. Time is ALWAYS on the side of the investor.
chaz
Eye appealing Midgrade PSA 3,4,5, cards of HOFs from the 50s and 60s will increase.
2nd year cards of superstars in any sport will do well
Depends on the asset class. I agree that time is on the side of the RE and equity investor. Not sure that hobby’s like sportscards all play out that way. Sure, if you have the best of the best cards. But most of us don’t play in that pool.
Is someone in 25 years going to pay a premium for my mid grade hockey set run? I’m sure a case of 85 opc hockey will continue to appreciate but there are maybe 100 of these and they are not a good proxy for the wider market.
Average age on this forum is around 50. I’m not convinced there will be a next generation there to absorb all the collections that will hit the market in the next 30 years, but who knows. I am sure there will be 10+ billionaires willing to but Wagners, mint Mantles and rare wax. But that mint 77 set, high grade commons or obscure pre war? Not so sure.
I AM confident that banks, energy producers, utilities etc will continue to be relevant for the next few generations. So thats where my investments are, I collect with the expectation that my cards will possibly be worth what I put into them, but more likely a fraction of what I’ve spent.
I heard that interview and my gut feeling coming out of that was that the sneaker flippers turned card flippers weren't going to be long-term participants in the hobby. Once something new comes along they will drift to whatever is popular. That being said, platforms like StockX now having a large sports card section will definitely change the dynamic and at least in the short-term, bring more non-traditional collectors into the market.
One thing I've tried to keep in mind is that the modern sneaker market that we see today hasn't been through an economic downturn, interested to see what happens during a recession.
Currently Collecting:
Flickr: https://flickr.com/gp/184724292@N07/686763
Street money. And that is not an insult.
Not a lot of their money is even sitting in banks let alone their personal portfolios tied up in things effected by the dow.
Great jeffgoldblum episode on netflix or amazon about this emerging market most of which was shot at sneaker con. Forget what the name of the show is as I'm not really a goldblum fan. Reminds me of Geraldo.
But let's face it, the card & graded card market is a natural evolution to the sneaker-heads portfolio. Athletes bank on shoe money, sneaker heads bank on the shoes and how well an athelete does (not just on the field). A lot of these shoe releases are limited editions and yes, they even have unauthorized reprints and legitimate ones, such as rereleases or even the jordan retro line, And both shoes and cards are fairly easy to liquidate nor are they fdic insured or backed.
My prediction. Is that I will add something really good soon.
I collect hall of fame rookie cards, https://www.instagram.com/stwainfan/
Just glad I'm a collector and not an investor in the hobby and couldn't care less if prices go up or down. Have my collection and that makes me happy! A lot of good insight from fellow hobbyist here. My take: sellers will continue to ask 30-100% over value--- Prizm, Chrome and up-dates will dictate Modern, un-opened continues to rise in their niche of the hobby, Vintage HOF players slightly increase, a moderate movement to mid-grade HOF GOATS (Mantle, Mays, Aaron, etc.), and basketball will out perform football. If I was investing in our hobby I would have bought Collectors Universe stock.... $10.01 a year ago and $22.88 last close with a 52 week high around $30.00 and 0.175 dividend payed each quarter....
I'm not familiar with this sneaker-collector milieu. Can somebody explain to me why sneaker collectors would be interested in cards? Thank you, kindly.
Andy
Fast money and many of the shoes are sports related.
There are 50,000 active daily participants just in the Atlanta Facebook marketplace alone.
Functionally you can flip them in the same way. They're both sports related. As DPeck mentioned, these are 'fast money' participants rather than 'real money' participants. Not looking to collect or hold for long-term.
Currently Collecting:
Flickr: https://flickr.com/gp/184724292@N07/686763
Was written above. But if that didnt do it, take a listen to the Hot Tuna song Bowlegged Woman.
@Huskies11 and @Dpeck100 thank you both for your clear and concise responses. Very helpful.
Andy
I think you'll see 2019 Football Box prices continue to Drop in 2020 though the Spring , while specific singles demand rises.
Basball to remain some what idle and 18-20 Basketball Basketball to sky rockett
BIGLEAGUE SportsCards
"Respect The Hobby"
www.bigleaguesc.com
https://www.ebay.com/str/bigleagueseller