@Coinstartled said: "Reality is a single man either blesses your coin or he doesn't. As long as the emperor is benevolent and makes us money we curtsy. There are serious collectors now buried financially in there sets. Too bad and caveat emptor and all of that but going forward how do you build confidence for those that want to put serious money into 150 year old coins? Maybe you don't."
Actually, a single man and his team blesses the opinion of several other professionals who evaluated the coin first!
It is sort of like when YOU purchase a coin in a slab, it got your blessing. However, I don't think YOUR blessing caries much weight in the market place.
@Boosibri asked: "Are they buried because of CAC or are they buried because they bought marginal coins? Across many facets of society today quality finds ways of rising to the top, punishing the uninformed or naive or arrogant in the process."
I think it will turn out that "they" were buried by the hype. While I feel truly sorry for anyone who pays $$$,$$$ for a colorful graded Mercury dime or two, I am very happy that they found a way to enjoy their money!
@Insider2 said: @Boosibri asked: "Are they buried because of CAC or are they buried because they bought marginal coins? Across many facets of society today quality finds ways of rising to the top, punishing the uninformed or naive or arrogant in the process."
I think it will turn out that "they" were buried by the hype. While I feel truly sorry for anyone who pays $$$,$$$ for a colorful graded Mercury dime or two, I am very happy that they found a way to enjoy their money!
I like this answer a lot.
This hobby is full of people overly obsessed with "investment". Have fun!!! Fun doesn't require a sticker at all. Someday I'll post some of the (virtually literal) crap that I've bought just because it's fun!
@jmlanzaf said:
Too bad and caveat emptor and all of that but going forward how do you build confidence for those that want to put serious money into 150 year old coins? Maybe you don't.
You could build confidence by telling those people to only buy CAC'ed coins. Just saying...
And, again, you're myopic. The same "burial problem" was true of all the people in 1990 who were "buried" in raw sets they had collected. How many people discovered, thanks to TPGS's, that their prized S-VDB had been a counterfeit all along? How many people discovered that they had overpaid for raw coins that wouldn't straight grade? CAC is a second opinion in addition to the TPGS's 1st opinion. You may either value it or not, it's up to you. Because people DO value it, it adds market value. All this proves is that you don't agree with the market, not that the market is "wrong" or even has a problem.
From tunnel vision to myopia in a single thread. Fortunately cataracts are not a problem.
Seems that every month or so we have a truculent cac thread on the forum. CU is tolerant until they boil over at 135 posts.
Does that not in itself send off an alarm that all is not well in TPG land. I don't see belligerent NGC or Anacs or ICG threads percolating here. To put it in the nicest way, the cac system depends on a host or it does not exist. That is a fragile foundation when a billion plus dollars of coins are affected.
@Coinstartled said:
Was looking at an 1879 Morgan at GC Sunday. PCGS MS67, no cac sticker.
It realized $26.5k, which was a cool $25.5k over the same coin in MS66 which also ended that night. 66+ withought a sicker will bring about $3,000.
So if one was in the market for a coin in that lofty a grade, what did he buy for the equivalent of a modest Toyota.
Should one automatically assume that the coin has been seen by Mr. Albanese? Well logically of course as a coveted sticker could add ten or fifteen thousand dollars to the auction price of the coin.
So if the coin did not sticker, is the coin in JA's eyes really a $3000 66+ or maybe a $1000 66? Or perhaps it falls into that very tiny island of "C" level MS67, where perhaps the 25 to 1 grade to grade price jump is justified. Or maybe the buyer just cares about registry points on this pop 8 coin so the holder could be stuffed with cracker jack crumbs for all he cares, as long as the grade on the holder is verifiable.
Confusion never makes a market stronger and the opaqueness that cac has added has in my opinion contributed to the downward valuation spiral that the hobby has been experiencing.
You could remove CAC from the equation, entirely, and consider that each coin could (or already did) grade differently on another occasion. And/or that each coin could bring a significantly different price if re-offered for sale. Many of the coins with the largest percentage price declines over the last several years aren’t even eligible for review by CAC. CAC isn’t responsible for any of those market realities.
But cac has become the dominant player in the classic coin arena. Place a gold bean on the 67 Morgan and you have a six figure coin. But the guessing game continues as we don't know which pieces have been evaluated by the kingmaker and which were merely never submitted. When the top tier full service grader can no longer stand alone as the determiner of value and the oft considered best eyes in the business refuses to slab coins or provide a comprehensive data base of submissions, we have quiet chaos which impedes confidence.
And if you’re looking at an NGC coin, which would sell for a much higher price in a PCGS holder, you don’t know whether it was already tried at PCGS for crossover. You seem to have tunnel vision.
And you seem to have a misaligned rear view mirror as we have both been banned here before, so discussing failings of the PCGS system regarding virtually risk free crossovers and upgrades puts us at odds with the hosts. For that reason it is better to keep the discussion on topic which is cac.
I don't pin the entire collapse of mid tier classic coins to cac, but as Topstuf noted above, complication never helps anything and that is true when dual third parties have to be employed to maximize return on a coin sale.
I also realize that a nearly free crapshoot will always be popular, so anteing up $15 or $50 for a chance at another thousand or ten thousand or hundred thousand dollars will continue to split the market, at least until the strategy no longer works...and when it doesn't, another gimmick will take its place.
I wasn't talking about failings of anything, but rather, the obvious realities of the marketplace.
Reality is a single man either blesses your coin or he doesn't. As long as the emperor is benevolent and makes us money we curtsy. There are serious collectors now buried financially in there sets. Too bad and caveat emptor and all of that but going forward how do you build confidence for those that want to put serious money into 150 year old coins? Maybe you don't.
Are they buried because of CAC or are they buried because they bought marginal coins? Across many facets of society today quality finds ways of rising to the top, punishing the uninformed or naive or arrogant in the process.
Plenty of reasons. Registry runups caused ms68 common Washington Quarters to run up to over $10,000. Whether you had a nice one or a manginal one, you will still take is on the chin during resale.
The split cac/no cac conundrum is more of a Titanic, post iceberg dilemma.
Missing from the discussion is that several naive and uninformed collectors would not recognize quality at various grade levels unless quality bit them ... In a certain place that I would be banned for mentioning if it where written here. And even then I am not convinced that they would be willing recognize quality over reprocessed crap which is what is mostly available today. Or the preconceived notions are as to what coins of a certain age should look like. Even quality has a subjective component and there seems to be an unwillingness to learn what real quality should represent.
That needs to change. And that knowledge and need to develop skill is on collectors or just those that choose to develop an interest in buy graded coins for whatever the reason. So this is beyond TPG and CAC... It is about people who choose to be collectors or investors that choose to buy coins.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
@topstuf said:
Add a TPG refund/buyback on any "fails" and things would get interesting.
CAC fails? That is a gross misunderstanding of what CAC means. Failure to CAC does NOT mean the coin is overgraded, just that it is at the bottom of the range.
It may be very hard to get a refund on a grading opinion. Anything obvious could be a "mechanical error." The Proof/MS question is probably an exception.
As a collector I value yet another professional opinion. I’m ok paying a bit more for that opinion. In some cases the premium appears excessive however.
@topstuf said:
Add a TPG refund/buyback on any "fails" and things would get interesting.
CAC fails? That is a gross misunderstanding of what CAC means. Failure to CAC does NOT mean the coin is overgraded, just that it is at the bottom of the range.
@oldabeintx said:
As a collector I value yet another professional opinion. I’m ok paying a bit more for that opinion. In some cases the premium appears excessive however.
The "premium" seems excessive to JA also. But don't argue with the market, it's always right.
@topstuf said:
Add a TPG refund/buyback on any "fails" and things would get interesting.
CAC fails? That is a gross misunderstanding of what CAC means. Failure to CAC does NOT mean the coin is overgraded, just that it is at the bottom of the range.
Can I start a bottomball set?
Ha! You could, except PCGS wouldn't recognize it. You need CAC to create registry sets for coins that don't sticker.
I've not gotten the letter yet. Hope they've not cancelled my membership since I've not submitted in a looooong time.
I think the letters are sent out in batches. I also received an email. Did you check your hobby/coin email? I haven't submitted as much recently (as I haven't been buying much), and I haven't been cancelled yet. I doubt they would do that without some sort of notice.
Comments
@Coinstartled said: "Reality is a single man either blesses your coin or he doesn't. As long as the emperor is benevolent and makes us money we curtsy. There are serious collectors now buried financially in there sets. Too bad and caveat emptor and all of that but going forward how do you build confidence for those that want to put serious money into 150 year old coins? Maybe you don't."
Actually, a single man and his team blesses the opinion of several other professionals who evaluated the coin first!
It is sort of like when YOU purchase a coin in a slab, it got your blessing. However, I don't think YOUR blessing caries much weight in the market place.
@Boosibri asked: "Are they buried because of CAC or are they buried because they bought marginal coins? Across many facets of society today quality finds ways of rising to the top, punishing the uninformed or naive or arrogant in the process."
I think it will turn out that "they" were buried by the hype. While I feel truly sorry for anyone who pays $$$,$$$ for a colorful graded Mercury dime or two, I am very happy that they found a way to enjoy their money!
I like this answer a lot.
This hobby is full of people overly obsessed with "investment". Have fun!!! Fun doesn't require a sticker at all. Someday I'll post some of the (virtually literal) crap that I've bought just because it's fun!
From tunnel vision to myopia in a single thread. Fortunately cataracts are not a problem.
Seems that every month or so we have a truculent cac thread on the forum. CU is tolerant until they boil over at 135 posts.
Does that not in itself send off an alarm that all is not well in TPG land. I don't see belligerent NGC or Anacs or ICG threads percolating here. To put it in the nicest way, the cac system depends on a host or it does not exist. That is a fragile foundation when a billion plus dollars of coins are affected.
Plenty of reasons. Registry runups caused ms68 common Washington Quarters to run up to over $10,000. Whether you had a nice one or a manginal one, you will still take is on the chin during resale.
The split cac/no cac conundrum is more of a Titanic, post iceberg dilemma.
Missing from the discussion is that several naive and uninformed collectors would not recognize quality at various grade levels unless quality bit them ... In a certain place that I would be banned for mentioning if it where written here. And even then I am not convinced that they would be willing recognize quality over reprocessed crap which is what is mostly available today. Or the preconceived notions are as to what coins of a certain age should look like. Even quality has a subjective component and there seems to be an unwillingness to learn what real quality should represent.
That needs to change. And that knowledge and need to develop skill is on collectors or just those that choose to develop an interest in buy graded coins for whatever the reason. So this is beyond TPG and CAC... It is about people who choose to be collectors or investors that choose to buy coins.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Add a TPG refund/buyback on any "fails" and things would get interesting.
CAC fails? That is a gross misunderstanding of what CAC means. Failure to CAC does NOT mean the coin is overgraded, just that it is at the bottom of the range.
It may be very hard to get a refund on a grading opinion. Anything obvious could be a "mechanical error." The Proof/MS question is probably an exception.
As a collector I value yet another professional opinion. I’m ok paying a bit more for that opinion. In some cases the premium appears excessive however.
Can I start a bottomball set?
The "premium" seems excessive to JA also. But don't argue with the market, it's always right.
Ha! You could, except PCGS wouldn't recognize it. You need CAC to create registry sets for coins that don't sticker.
I think the letters are sent out in batches. I also received an email. Did you check your hobby/coin email? I haven't submitted as much recently (as I haven't been buying much), and I haven't been cancelled yet. I doubt they would do that without some sort of notice.
That metric keeps moving faster than a seventy year old belly dancers hips.
You're free to disregard the stickers if you don't see any value in them, you know.