Survival Estimates

Smudge

How accurate are they? Do they factor into your purchase decisions?

blitzdude

Not accurate at all. Even today Pre-33 gold is getting melted right along with piles of broke junk jewelry. No way anyone has an accurate estimate of what survives.

Namvet69

I don't know, survival rates don't take into account all the coins languishing somewhere about to be rediscovered. We're talking all over the world. Like I dug over four dozen IHC's this past month alone. Peace Roy

thisnamztaken

I think they are a good general "current" guide if you supplement them with your own awareness of how many of those under your consideration you have actually seen offered by dealers, auctions, etc. over a significant period of time.

BillDugan1959

While my personal opinion means almost nothing, I often find myself scoffing at the survival estimates in the Bowers Series books. Mostly too low/ mostly seem to support quick purchase decisions.

I understand that a professional numismatist has some idea of what they have seen over the years, but as noted earlier, many decent coins are floating well outside the marketplace.

Survival estimates do not affect my buying decisions. That is based on the physical attractiveness of the specific coin, and its perceived value as a historical artifact. And oh yeah, just how much cash is burning a hole in my pocket at any given moment.

Nysoto

It depends on the series. The lower the survival numbers, the higher the accuracy. If the number is greater than five hundred, does it really matter?

The most accurate method is a census of coins from all sources, with images of each coin. TPG pops - not a good representation of survival numbers in all conditions.

The early half dollar current rarities are accurate. For R-6 to R-8 rarity, the Tompkins book has a picture census. The survival estimates in Dannreuther's early gold book I believe are accurate as he researched auction records over many years.

They do factor in pricing and bids for me.

Goldminers

I have been trying to estimate my own survival rate for years and I am pretty sure my personal estimate will not be any more accurate than many survival estimates for coins or medals. Especially relatively modern precious metal ones.

Sometimes I buy tough to find medals or coins just to get TrueView photos of them published and to help them survive longer without damage in slabs. If I have been looking for years for something I want, that tells me there are not many available, regardless of the "official" book number guesses. Better buy them now when they show up, before it is too late...

Walkerfan

If we're talking about population and census reports; they're very inaccurate and inflated.

Raybo

@Walkerfan said:
If we're talking about population and census reports; they're very inaccurate and inflated
@Walkerfan said:
If we're talking about population and census reports; they're very inaccurate and inflated.

I agree...and if you add pre 1900 mintage reports (according to the US mint) into the mix all bets are off.

ricko

I would call survival estimates to be 'guesstimates'....There are unknown collections, Grandma's trunks, buried coins, and Grandpa's sock drawer out there...to name a few places where treasures could be hidden. In general, when survival guesstimates are given, it is relative to key coins and based on knowledge of the coins mintage, history since minted and a familiarity with the market through shows, auctions and dealers inventories. Cheers, RickO