Optimism in Coin Market

Cougar1978

The uptick in gold 29% and silver 33 % from current one year lows (kitco) has created optimism spilling over to the coin market. Uncertainty in equity markets appears to be another contributing factor.

This tidal wave has increased sales on both bullion and numismatic material for me both online and shows. Strong areas I have experienced demand wise have been Classic commems, CC coins, and gold / silver coins bullion based (both slabbed and raw).

I am looking forward to attending the upcoming Houston show Oct 4 & 5.

jmlanzaf

That's always a mixed bag. Interest due to financial market turbulence will either be short lived (market corrects) or the start of a longer term downtrend. Neither scenario is good for the longer term market view.

BryceM

It’s an over-simplification, but in many ways the coin market seems to act contrary to the broader market. “Coin people” certainly get juiced by rising PM prices though.

bolivarshagnasty

If that is the case, why aren't we seeing an uptick in the PCGS 3000 composite? Are you buying lower and selling lower?

TwoSides2aCoin

I'm seeing weird things come into my text messages via my phone.
A sign that people are LQQKing ... for something.

ctf_error_coins

The future's so bright I gotta wear shades

https://youtu.be/8qrriKcwvlY

Walkerfan

I never saw the correlation between PM prices and the rare coin Market. The price difference is sooo drastic. Lack of optimism and confidence in the stock Market makes better sense to me, though.

WCC

I have read similar sentiments for metal prices. I don't know how factually true it is outside of bullion substitutes but it has some plausibility.

Buying coins or collectibles as a substitute for financial assets where the outlay is financially meaningful to the buyer? I don't believe it is material since coins don't have sufficient liquidity.

MrEureka

Two big issues at play.

First, it’s a lot easier to retail rare coins to investors when bullion is trending higher.

Second, coin shops and bullion dealers see increased buying and selling, which means more profits and more cash available to buy rare coins.

ricko

Buy high, sell low..... I see it every cycle.... It was really bad back when gold and silver was peaking (2010/2011)...and a lot of people ended up under water - some still are...Cheers, RickO

jmski52

I do more of both private buying and selling when the metals are moving up. More overall liquidity in the coin and precious metals markets. It gives me a chance to jettison coins I no longer want while chasing some of the ones I do want.

Cougar1978

I can’t answer for the Pcgs indexes. I do look at them mainly track what they are vs say 3 yr back or whatever.

I do consider them a reliable indicator.

I have seen strong demand in areas I do and coins moving I wondered if they would ever sell at that asking price. Not that it was too much just not giveaway...

Winchester1873

I just spent too much on a gold dollar this afternoon, but I’m ok with that. Cash and coins are still being exchanged out there! Happy to do my part in keeping the hobby energized!

savitale

@MrEureka said:
Two big issues at play.

First, it’s a lot easier to retail rare coins to investors when bullion is trending higher.

Second, coin shops and bullion dealers see increased buying and selling, which means more profits and more cash available to buy rare coins.

This makes more sense to me. The precious metal content in most quality numismatic material is so low that it can't logically be a factor when buying or selling. But if the dealers suddenly see a windfall from increased bullion trading I could see that money being used to buy coins that they otherwise would not have.

air4mdc

I just don’t see any tidal wave in this market. Really haven’t heard anyone mention things were getting better either. I just attended a one day show in Illinois and it was a bomb. Low attendance, and one dealer reported no sales, and another major dealer packed up and left halfway into the show because of lack of business. I also didn’t see a tidal wave at the ANA either.
I know there is the exception for people that have a lot of money and pay way over market prices for coins. But the average collector.....????
I think I will keep my life preserver on the shelf for a bit.

Cougar1978

My optimism is best described by the statement by Mr Eureka above.

My sales for been strong for September - a 1926-s Oregon NGC MS64 realized close to $200 in bay auction considerably above bid. Retails sales strong for commems, WLH, mod commems, slabbed bullion related coins like Mexico onza, and China Pandas (an MS70 slightly better date went for $95). An investor in Clear Lake purchased a 1904 PCGS 63 $20 Lib I picked up at the Bellaire show back in August for $1895, around CPG.

The increase in cash flow has allowed me bid on more items.

topstuf

If one considers "bullion value" to be the same as "face value" (I do that) then there are tons of $5, $10. $20 gold coins c that are selling AT FACE VALUE !!

Certainly something to consider.

Walkerfan

@MrEureka said:
Two big issues at play.

First, it’s a lot easier to retail rare coins to investors when bullion is trending higher.

Second, coin shops and bullion dealers see increased buying and selling, which means more profits and more cash available to buy rare coins.

Good explanation. Thanks.