Velocity

MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 21,602 ✭✭✭✭✭

In thinking about the Hansen Collection, how it is being assembled, and how fast it’s being done, it occurs to me that it would have been impossible to do it so quickly 20+ years ago. Mostly because collectors were not so quick to sell their collections. We could debate the reasons forever, but we can probably at least agree that there’s a strong correlation between the length of time it takes to build a collection and the length of time it will be held.

So my question is, going forward from here, will the trend continue? Seems logical that it would, but I could easily see it going the other way.

Andy Lustig

Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.

Comments

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 21,602 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Realone said:
    Didn't Eliasberg buy Clapp's collection in one fell swoop? Can't get any faster than that.

    Clapp’s collection was multi-generational, and Eliasberg collected for decades.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • Are people quick to sell their collections now? How can we tell? I imagine with registry sets it's easier for buyers to reach out and attempt to buy coins in private sales.

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 21,602 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 12, 2019 8:36AM

    @neildrobertson said:
    Are people quick to sell their collections now? How can we tell? I imagine with registry sets it's easier for buyers to reach out and attempt to buy coins in private sales.

    My strong impression is that an unusually large percentage of the collections that have appeared in auctions in the past decade or so were obviously built quickly and somewhat recently. Correct me if I’m wrong.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • 291fifth291fifth Posts: 17,621 ✭✭✭✭✭

    New money may get bored easily.

    What's the next big thing I can add to my trophy room?

    All glory is fleeting.
  • CoinstartledCoinstartled Posts: 8,579 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MrEureka said:

    @neildrobertson said:
    Are people quick to sell their collections now? How can we tell? I imagine with registry sets it's easier for buyers to reach out and attempt to buy coins in private sales.

    My strong impression is that an unusually large percentage of the collections that have appeared in auctions in the past decade or so were obviously built quickly and somewhat recently. Correct me if I’m wrong.

    Much of that was brought on by the registry competition.

  • RealoneRealone Posts: 17,990 ✭✭✭✭

    In construction,along time ago homes were built to last forever i.e. 100+ years and if taken care of literally forever. Today homes are built to last the FHA owner guaranty of 10-15 years ( I can't remember) so if you ask a present day contractor he will tell you that what he is building just has to last 15 years. Today most have a short term viewpoint, where as in years gone by nothing every changed and most were patient and had a long term view. Today it is the "now" world.
    I believe it is as simple as that.

    'Never give in, never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy'.
    FYI: I only collect naturally toned coins with original surfaces and nothing else, trust me nothing else!
    OK with one exception!
  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 5,131 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Easy come, easy go.....

    But a coin just sits there and does not jump up and play fetch, drive you around or give you direct physical pleasure.
    Ergo, if you are not really interested in coins for coins sake, the interest is naturally going to fade...

    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • topstuftopstuf Posts: 13,066 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Wait til someone buys the ...entire.... Hansen collection and.... flips .... it. :D

  • 2ndCharter2ndCharter Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭

    Andy, you are absolutely right about the increasing velocity in today's market As someone who has cataloged for over 10 years for a certain firm in Dallas (albeit on the currency side), I have seen numerous items come through at least three times (and sometimes four) in that period of time. Of course, from the house's perspective, it's great because they collect fees coming and going each time. I guess many (not all) of today's collectors do not have the attention span of us old-timers.

  • HemisphericalHemispherical Posts: 7,302 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Technology is a big factor. What’s out there (or not) can usually be found in a matter of minutes if not seconds.

  • rickoricko Posts: 68,384 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I am old fashioned... I really enjoy my coins... the look, the design, the history...Where I found them and how long I have had them....However, my collection will never be anything like those mentioned above, and no one will be buying it...Cheers, RickO

  • ARCOARCO Posts: 4,082 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MrEureka said:
    In thinking about the Hansen Collection, how it is being assembled, and how fast it’s being done, it occurs to me that it would have been impossible to do it so quickly 20+ years ago. Mostly because collectors were not so quick to sell their collections. We could debate the reasons forever, but we can probably at least agree that there’s a strong correlation between the length of time it takes to build a collection and the length of time it will be held.

    So my question is, going forward from here, will the trend continue? Seems logical that it would, but I could easily see it going the other way.

    I don't know if it is "collections being sold faster", but it is evident that the internet has connected dealers all over the world. I am now buying most of my medals from Europe and European auction houses. I don't think that was really even feasible like it is today just 5-10 years back.

    The consequence for Hansen buying his collection so fast will be the prices realized when he sells. Slow over time tends to allow discernment to consider quality and price. Rushed buying means that there is little haggling and patient waiting. Surely some coins will do well, but given the vast size of the collection, there will be many coins just bought because they presented themselves in the moment and price considerations will be secondary in order to complete the set.

    For someone who has been so financially astute in business over the years, selling is going to be a real eye opener for Hansen IMO.

  • amwldcoinamwldcoin Posts: 6,004 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 12, 2019 4:35PM

    Doesn't sound like Hanson has given even the slightest hint he's going to sell. I think it will be at least a generation before you see a possible sale.

    The coins he is buying are in very strong hands!

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 21,602 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 12, 2019 7:12PM

    Here's one argument for it going the other way. Obviously, the market is now more efficient in quickly getting coins into the most suitable hands. And perhaps as the reshuffling and redistribution nears completion, trading and velocity will slow dramatically. In fact, one could argue that we're already seeing signs that that is happening in a big way.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • breakdownbreakdown Posts: 1,575 ✭✭✭

    If the velocity theory is correct, then the maxims of the best coins being in strong hands and the lack of fresh coins on the market should no longer apply. Maybe I have these concepts confused somehow...

    "It's a beautiful world.
    So hold me tight. I had to fight
    Every day of my life. It's a beautiful world."
    Mudcrutch.
  • BryceMBryceM Posts: 8,006 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Does it matter? Are all classes of coins moving at the same velocity? It’s clear that some are trading rather frequently...... but maybe they always did. It’s hard to really know.

    We certainly have more information now about transactions than at any prior point in history. We also have a more visible nation-wide auction & coin show mechanism than ever before.

    Relatively weak markets tend to keep a lot of nice material tucked quietly away.

  • jgennjgenn Posts: 437 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 13, 2019 11:15AM

    ...there’s a strong correlation between the length of time it takes to build a collection and the length of time it will be held.

    The Millennia Collection certainly fits this theory. I've been curious about how and why this collection was built. I know the Goldbergs were largely involved in researching, selecting and acquiring most of the items for their customer. From what I've read about it, I believe it may have been assembled in only five years, held for one and then auctioned off in 2008. Others with better connections know more about this than I do, but to me It seems a shockingly short period of time between the beginning of acquisition of a collection of this value to its sale.

    Andy, please feel free to chime in with any nuggets about the Millennia Collection and its owner.

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 19,572 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 12, 2019 10:22PM

    @Realone said:
    In construction,along time ago homes were built to last forever i.e. 100+ years and if taken care of literally forever. Today homes are built to last the FHA owner guaranty of 10-15 years ( I can't remember) so if you ask a present day contractor he will tell you that what he is building just has to last 15 years. Today most have a short term viewpoint, where as in years gone by nothing every changed and most were patient and had a long term view. Today it is the "now" world.
    I believe it is as simple as that.

    Is the reference to a guaranty meaningful? Were there guaranties to compare to a long time ago? Did anyone offer 100+ year guaranties back then?

    Also, some cheap homes last a long time. For example, I don't imagine Joseph Eichler's Palo Alto homes were intended to last very long, but they did and are quite expensive now.

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 19,572 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 12, 2019 10:23PM

    @7Jaguars said:
    Easy come, easy go.....

    But a coin just sits there and does not jump up and play fetch, drive you around or give you direct physical pleasure.
    Ergo, if you are not really interested in coins for coins sake, the interest is naturally going to fade...

    Well, a coin could be probably be used to play fetch and it wouldn't be so bad in a slab ;)

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 19,572 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 12, 2019 10:26PM

    @BryceM said:
    Relatively weak markets tend to keep a lot of nice material tucked quietly away.

    An interesting thing is that I thought a lot of sets became available to Hansen because of the relatively weak markets.

  • @Zoins said:

    Is the reference to a guaranty meaningful? Were there guaranties to compare to a long time ago? Did anyone offer 100+ year guaranties back then?

    Also, some cheap homes last a long time. For example, I don't imagine Joseph Eichler's Palo Alto homes were intended to last very long, but they did and are quite expensive now.

    Yes. Building codes have improved overtime. It's definitely a case of nostalgia and survivorship bias. I'm not sure why houses would have anything to do with coins

  • mrearlygoldmrearlygold Posts: 17,854 ✭✭✭

    Can one of the sub questions be will another billionaire collector try to top it , if so when ? Battle of the Titans

  • I think the ability for Dell to build the collection so fast is based on (a) the internet and (b) there seem not to be multi generation collections anymore. Look at all the big collections sold the last 10 years, none of them was given to inheritance like it was the case with Eliasberg, Garrett, Norweb...

    Additionally from what I have seen in 20 years is that everybody who built fast also sold fast again. I would not be surprised to see the whole Del collection to hit the market again in 5-10 years but of course I hope not.

  • oldabeintxoldabeintx Posts: 596 ✭✭✭✭

    One facet that may not have been mentioned explicitly is the ease of selling. When I grow tired of a set or a coin, or want to upgrade, it's much easier for me to sell today than it was 20 or 30 years ago. I my case I'm turning my coins over more because I can with FAR less hassle. In my case I'm not buying and getting out, my overall collection is increasing.

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 21,602 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @mrearlygold said:
    Can one of the sub questions be will another billionaire collector try to top it , if so when ? Battle of the Titans

    There are already other billionaires in the game, and at least a couple of them are spending in Hansen's league. But when you consider the quality of Hansen's collection and the speed at which he built it, the only way to top his achievement will be to buy his collection intact and take it to the next level.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 21,602 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jgenn said:

    ...there’s a strong correlation between the length of time it takes to build a collection and the length of time it will be held.

    The Millennia Collection certainly fits this theory. I've been curious about how and why this collection was build. I know the Goldbergs were largely involved in researching, selecting and acquiring most of the items for their customer. From what I've read about it, I believe it may have been assembled in only five years, held for one and then auctioned off in 2008. Others with better connections know more about this that I do, but to me It seems a shockingly short period of time between the beginning of acquisition of a collection of this value to its sale.

    Andy, please feel free to chime in with any nuggets about the Millennia Collection and its owner.

    I met the guy but have no idea what was going through his head. All I know, at least to the best of my knowledge, is that he started with US coins, then switched to US paper, and then switched to World and Ancient coins. And FWIW, it wouldn't surprise me if he never owned anything for more than a decade.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • davewesendavewesen Posts: 2,714 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have seen some top sets built in 3 or less years just to be sold off. They seem to bump up the price of the top end in the series. I have always gotten the impression they took a beating when disbursed (but do not have data to back that up).

    Are you suggesting Hansen may be liquidating in the next few years?

  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 5,131 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don't know, that just seems to be a coin (and I don't say numismatic) manifestation of much else going on in this economy. The wealthy nice, middle class OK but generally with some worrisome signs, and the lower economic class - well toug- s---. So roll in with big bank, buy anything and everything regardless of price, and roll on out.

    Cool, but the old phrase "easy come, easy go" absolutely comes to play....Some years ago, I had more disposable income (NOT Hansen level) and I could buy 4,5,6 or more very rare coins in my area and did this every month, more or less. That was OK, and I certainly have appreciated having coins that are today impossible, but now that reality and parenthood, etc. has hit, I appreciate all the more the coins I have and the many fewer additions I now obtain.

    Like Ricko, mine will likely not be sold other than duplicates or coins I should not have gotten in the first place and now the stars I have held for 20 and more years. So goody for me, but I just wonder about this rapid flux of coins traded as commodities and large chunks sold en bloc - it seems to subtract from stability in the market.

    But more power to the Hansens, et al of the world. I'll just be on the sidelines and watch. Meanwhile, there are still many coins out there for the rest of us, and many of real significance and beauty.

    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It seems to me that the entire collectibles market will find much stronger legs as the dollar continues to be devalued. It's not a new phenomenon, and I believe that it's still in play.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 40,710 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Big fish eats little fish. Then, feeds a school with its droppings

  • scubafuelscubafuel Posts: 795 ✭✭✭✭

    "Here's one argument for it going the other way. Obviously, the market is now more efficient in quickly getting coins into the most suitable hands. And perhaps as the reshuffling and redistribution nears completion, trading and velocity will slow dramatically. In fact, one could argue that we're already seeing signs that that is happening in a big way."

    @MrEureka I think this is a really interesting argument. But I'd want to adjust it a bit from "most suitable hands" to "highest paying hands". And they're often not the same. People who might have held long-term as part of a major collection are not necessarily those that are high bidders in any given auction now.
    In the past, you had to "know the right people" long-term to get access to some of these coins. That took a lot of work and dedication. Now that it's not as necessary, you see people cutting the line a bit who have maybe not paid their dues as much. That could create shorter holding terms.

    Coin-specific photobucket alternative:
    CollectiveCoin

    Check it out!
  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 5,131 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I too agree on "most suitable hands". Yikes, social Darwinism? That is a big fat "NO" IMO to using that expression!

    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • topstuftopstuf Posts: 13,066 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'd guess things will settle and be fine once any transitions are completed.
    I've done transition on my stuff. I have one more small batch in the process of being liquidated. :s

    Dreck will quite likely find its level and whatever it's replaced with will be far better and reflect new standards of demand.

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 21,602 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 14, 2019 12:54PM

    @scubafuel said:
    "Here's one argument for it going the other way. Obviously, the market is now more efficient in quickly getting coins into the most suitable hands. And perhaps as the reshuffling and redistribution nears completion, trading and velocity will slow dramatically. In fact, one could argue that we're already seeing signs that that is happening in a big way."

    @MrEureka I think this is a really interesting argument. But I'd want to adjust it a bit from "most suitable hands" to "highest paying hands". And they're often not the same. People who might have held long-term as part of a major collection are not necessarily those that are high bidders in any given auction now.
    In the past, you had to "know the right people" long-term to get access to some of these coins. That took a lot of work and dedication. Now that it's not as necessary, you see people cutting the line a bit who have maybe not paid their dues as much. That could create shorter holding terms.

    Fair points. Then again, if the high buyer is not a serious long term collector, he's more likely to sell sooner rather than later. So an efficient market will, given some time, be more efficient in putting more coins into the hands of serious long term collectors. (Or to put it another way, the more often a coin comes to market, the sooner it's likely to find a good long term home.)

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 19,572 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 15, 2019 5:32PM

    I think collecting is getting faster with more transfers of complete, or mostly complete sets.

    This thread got me thinking of the following announcement in which a life long dream seems like it was completed in 2 purchases, an ultra-rarity followed by the #1 PCGS Registry Set, combining these into a new set. This seems like a good way to make a #1 set if you can afford it and the right opportunity comes along. Wait until you pick up the ultra-rarities first and then buy the existing #1 set to complete your set.

    With the prevalence of PCGS Set Registry rankings, PCGS is playing a big role in allowing people to fulfill their dream of owning great sets of coins.

    Legend Numismatics Announces “the Completion of a Life Long Dream” in Assembling the #1 Truly Complete PCGS Registry Set of Proof Liberty Nickels

    It seems like there were two steps to completing this set mentioned in the article, emphasis mine:

    Since the creation of the Set Registry at PCGS, the client, who wishes to remain private, has dreamed about assembling this set. The first step became possible at the 2018 ANA, when the Eliasberg-Legend-Smith 1913 nickel, graded PCGS PR66 CAC came up for sale. The final piece came together recently, after Legend Numismatics was able to negotiate the purchase of the former #1 PCGS Registry Set and obtained it for the collector, making this the greatest set of Proof Liberty nickels ever assembled.

    https://www.pcgs.com/news/legend-numismatics-completion-proof-liberty-nickels

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