With metals prices moving upwards, how will it affect the mintages of the modern bullion coinage?
jmski52
Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
I tend to pay some attention to the mintages of modern bullion coinage, hoping someday that the lower mintage coins will acquire meaningful premiums. (I am referring to the ordinary bullion issues and not the "collector bullion" issues which I will address in a separate post.)
This strategy seemed to have validity back in 2006-2008, but not so much since then. Undeterred, I stand by this approach in a rising precious metals environment. (I do think that rising prices enhance demand for individual issues, as more actual collectors are lured into the game by the rising prices.)
So, how do you think that rising silver, gold and platinum prices will affect the 2019 and 2020 mintages for silver, gold and platinum eagles? And gold buffalos?
A secondary question - do you think that meaningful premiums will develop for some of these issues if the mintages go low?
I knew it would happen.
Comments
IMO even low mintages of bullion coins are actually high mintages. I never pay a premium for bullion coin mintage.
Rising prices will create more demand. US mint bullion is minted to meet demand. Mintages should go higher.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I've paid nominal premiums for virgin rolls of gold & platinum, but not after the year of issue. A rising price negates a lot of potential screwups and the lure of another 1991 1/2 oz AGE still beckons.
If mintages do go higher along with a rising price, that makes 2018 and 2019 issues more desirable, maybe.
I knew it would happen.
Rising PM prices will also mean rising Mint prices....and profits will not be short term... if at all. If a low mintage occurs, it might be worth speculating...though it seems unlikely. Cheers, RickO
I know you excluded collector gold, but that, my friend is where the low mintages during higher prices will occur. Little late for much action this year, but keep an eye on next year's collector gold issues.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
$50 over on 2013W proof gold
https://www.apmex.com/product/73866/2013-w-1-oz-proof-gold-american-eagle-w-box-coa
I've become a little bit jaded on the collector gold, but not so jaded that I no longer pay attention. The initial premiums have always been high, and the grading costs make them even more dicey.
I was pretty bold in 2006 and 2008 with the burnished fractional AGEs & Plats, and profited thereby. It's the high initial premium and requirement of a major price rise that has somewhat tempered my enthusiasm for these types of issues. That, and also the performance of the 1 oz burnished AGEs, which also have been a disappointment.
Nevertheless, it's when people like me are lukewarm - that the real winners materialize. I already know that.
I knew it would happen.
Why would modern crap carry a premium if 150 yr gold does not?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Why would modern crap carry a premium if 150 yr gold does not?
Collector demand?
I knew it would happen.
bring it on.
$50 over on 2013W proof gold
https://www.apmex.com/product/73866/2013-w-1-oz-proof-gold-american-eagle-w-box-coa
Flippers are paying it in hopes of a higher return on their investment. "Some days peanuts, some days shells."
Would be interesting to know what percentage of the new PM mint issues are purchased by the likes of APMEX. We do know that 100% of the bulk bullion sales go to the flippers (authorized purchasers) for resale.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Why climate change of course....