the Impact of the Hansen Collection
Gazes
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I have thought for awhile that Hansen's collection would impact collectors far more than has been discussed. I decided to make this a new thread instead of posting in Currin's thread because I did not want it to derail the excellent thread that follows the purchases of the Hansen Collection. Further, I am not being critical in anyway of the Hansen collection---I very much enjoy watching it and admire what Mr. Hansen is doing. The main thrust of this post is to consider the impact of such a huge collection on the coin market. Finally, I am looking at the impact on the upper end of the market (although there are plenty of coins in the Hansen collection that are not expensive)---I am sure that disclaimer won't stop the usual posts about "he doesn't effect me, etc."
My assumption is that the Hansen collection will be off the market for decades. What is unique about Hansen's collection is it literally touches every series of coins. From old gold to modern coins to copper to proof and on and on. Further, he is collecting all dates so his collection impacts key dates, semi keys, high grade common type coins and mint collecting (i.e Dahlongea, etc). In general, Hansen has tried to obtain concensus condition coins. I will loosely define that as top 5 for the date.
So one direct impact that I think we will see is about a 20% decrease immediately in the availability for a condition census coin in almost any date and series. Now in most series there is another dedicated collector who has condition census coins for his series (i.e for liberty quarter eagles it would be the Kansas Collection). Assuming those collectors continue to hold their coins that means about 40% decrease in those condition census coins potentially available (and if there are two collectors who are building top collections which is probably the case more than not than 60% decrease in availability).
Obviously this does not really impact coins where the top pop is 15 and the next grade down has a pop of 35. But my thought is that as time moves on there will be a very real impact on the dearth of condition census coins in many series as a direct result of the Hansen collection. Further, that impact may be felt even more for those who prefer PCGS and CAC coins. In some cases, those type of condition census coins may just not be available.
What Hansen is doing is fairly unique in recent numismatics both with regard to quantity and quality. I think its impact will be greater than most people think.
Comments
I'd like to see his collection get some widespread publicity like Life Magazine did in the old days.
At the same time I agree that it would discourage me from trying to go crazy with a top pop search if I were so inclined.
Overall, I consider it a plus for numismatics in general.
Museums sometimes have the finest known example of a type, leaving other coins to be called the "finest in private hands".
I could see it discouraging other top pop collectors unless they're fine having the "second finest" = "finest available" but in a competitive world, knowing you can only get a silver medal possibly isn't as exciting.
Cases where coins are overall superior but of a lower numerical grade will be a great place to focus.
And, happily, he sells off duplicates - his collection isn't just a black hole - so the #2 coins will become available if he upgrades.
Fortunately, his quality quest doesn’t extend to the early coinage as of yet.
Certainly for what i collect (early quarter eagles), he doesn't yet seem to be focused on quality. Only a few coins are condition census. Fortunately for me, he I really haven't had to compete with him and i have almost all of the collection made.
Regarding the OP's thesis that the number of available CC coins will be lesser as a result of Hansen, I agree from a general sense.
I wonder what his highest grade average pre1840 set is
Based upon a quick browse, looks like it’s the early dimes closely followed by the early half dimes.
I wouldn't necessarily count another (or two) dedicated collectors as part of the "Hansen Effect" because those collectors have often been in the market longer than Hansen.
In the scenario where there are 2 dedicated collectors before Hansen, it seems more appropriate to say there was a 40% decrease in availability due to dedicated collectors before Hansen, and Hansen has increased it to 60%, so the Hansen Effect is still just 20%.
Of course, it would be different if the other dedicated collectors became active because of Hansen, but I'm not sure that's the case. It seems more popular to say some new collectors are being less competitive for top sets due to the number of condition census collectors out there, not just Hansen. Here, there would be no "multiplier effect" for dedicated collecting because of Hansen, but perhaps even a decrease in competition.
Maybe Hansen could apply for status as "Controversialest Collector Ever"
Wonder if he factors in the 20% vig when bidding?
Publicity would have an impact IMO, at least in the short run.
Unless he becomes an "Everyman" Collector he doesn't affect me!
Hansen can only buy coins that are available on the market.
Coins like the 1933 DE, 1794 SP $1, 1870-s $3, etc, are not in his collection since they are not for sale, not because he can’t or doesn’t want to buy them.
If they were not in his collection they would be in someone else’s. Many collections are off the market for over a decade; in fact it’s kind of a recent thing that collections aren’t kept in families for more than a few years.
I don’t think this effects the market by 20% as might be implied. Most of the coins that he owns could’ve been bought by anyone with deep enough pockets. He is just more willing to pay more.
He’s only collecting a few years. I’m sure many of us started a collection with the intention of keeping it in the family forever, only to change interests and eventually sell. Let’s see him keep the collection intact for the next 10 or 20 years before we consider it to be a long term holding.
I have thought for awhile that Hansen's collection would impact collectors far more than has been discussed.
it is probably as simple as you thought it would affect things more than it has.
Another thing to consider is when Hansen buys top ranked dedicated collector sets. I’m these cases, the addition of Hansen is offset by the exit of a collector so there may be no effect on number of collectors or availability of condition census coins.
For those who want to shoot for the top spot, there are still many things to collect that are not yet a focus for Hansen. Patterns, Pioneer Gold, Fractional Gold, Colonials, Tokens, Medals, US Philippines, etc. Although I don't expect any imminent fireworks in those areas, I would not be surprised to see more collectors moving in those directions.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
i think you need to factor in that some collectors/collections were sold primarily because Hansen was in the market. In other words, some coins would not have been sold at this time but were because of Hansen.
i think i know what you are saying and i think i agree.
"the Impact of the Hansen Collection"
None whatsover to my numismatic collecting. We collect completely different things and completely different price points. In fact, no other collector and their collection has an impact on my collecting and collection. But I suppose some out there care what rich people do(?). So I think this is a strange topic and sorry to be a debbie downer but there it is.
Best, SH
You say "i suppose some out there care what rich people do(?). So i think this is a strange topic..."
I dont care what Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos or Warren Buffet do. I do care about anything that involves numismatics. Like it or not, someone attmepting to put together an equal or better of the Eliasberg collection is a topic many collectors wish to discuss (there is a whole other thread about this guy...) Quite frankly, i think it is strange that anyone on a coin forum and who collects coins thinks the OP is a "strange" topic.
I decided that a nice gold "ring dollar" pattern (1852) would be cool.
I then decided it wouldn't.
If you're building a #1 PCGS registry set or bidding on an ultra rarity, then yes I think there is a Hansen effect. Otherwise, I don't see it. The only way he would feasibly make a difference on the rest of the market IMO would be if he drew more collectors into the hobby. I certainly see no evidence of this, and overall the coin market is almost where it was in the early 1990s, post crash, which is to say not great.
He’s totally out of my league.
No, that should be I’m totally out of his league.
This has been discussed before in threads other than the watch thread. For myself and a great many others his accumulation has no affect at all, I (like 95% of collectors) am not putting together a top pop set so his buying has not and will not change what I look at or buy going forward. And as someone mentioned unless his collection gets some press which brings a significant number of new collectors into the hobby that then build sets in the more meaty section of the grades (AU to MS66) would the numismatic community be affected overall. Its only the very top 1% or 2% of currently active collectors that are impacted in any way at all, those with or who want a top registry set.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
If he went low ball, he could squeeze EVERYTHING.
@cameonut2011 said "If you're building a #1 PCGS registry set or bidding on an ultra rarity, then yes I think there is a Hansen effect. Otherwise, I don't see it. The only way he would feasibly make a difference on the rest of the market IMO would be if he drew more collectors into the hobby."
I tend to agree with this.
Apart from the possible positive impact described by @cameonut2011, and the higher prices for some rarities and condition rarities, it is hard to see that there would be a major impact on even the higher end of the hobby.
Probably I am missing the point of the OP, but apart from taking some 'significant' coins off the market, what exactly is the affect?
Is removing these coins from the market really very significant? If so, why? For example, are there really a large number of people building high end registry sets who would leave the hobby if they knew they could not realistically achieve top status? Will Mr. Hansen's efforts discourage new entrants to this collecting segment?
Perhaps at some point there will be a reality check. And maybe reason will ultimately return to a hobby that should be for many instead of the perception that it is for Kings.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
As long as Hansen stays away from Latin American coins while I’m buying I’m good
Latin American Collection
So far there have only been two pieces of my series that have ended up in his registry sets that I have been under bidder to. I buy 2-4 coins a year, so as a casual collector and full time dealer it has limited what I can add. What does get to me is that he has started a second set of my series. Seems to be a hoarding issue more than collecting at some point.
We sold a few coins from my collection to Hansen in the last few weeks and from my end I can say now that I have no idea how he is making his buying decisions. He has been passing on some once in a lifetime opportunities (and missed them for good) while adding some later coins.
Honestly, Hansen doesn't want anything I own. And, being frank, I couldn't afford anything Hansen wants.
I really also don't know why I should care if 1000 top pop coins are locked into one collection or 1000 different collections. Either way they are in collections and off the market for 10-20 years or so.
I think Hansen has no effect on 98% of us other than maybe giving us reason to dream of riches. I think the only negative Hansen effect is that he frustrates the top 2% who wanted to (over)pay to feed their ego complete their top pop collection.
I am selling the number two finest colllection of shield and liberty nickel proofs because of this. I’ve lost interest because Gerry and Hansen have acquired top pops I know I won’t be able to buy. Chasing the top pop nickels cost me badly.
Going to buy another super car or buy some quality old gold or proof gold.
But yes some of the quality coins he has makes a difference but sorry he has a lot of non quality items and like private collector says it’s strange he’s passed on some really nice stuff. Makes no sense.
My Type Set & My Complete Proof Nickel Set!
While it might not make sense to you and some others, presumably, it does to him. He has his own collecting priorities and pursues them as he sees fit.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Regarding the impact - it will bring positive exposure to the hobby. For Deloy, given the speed at which he is putting together this set, the impact on him when he goes to sell will probably be a real eye opener (recent thread discussing "removing the buyer premium") should highlight this.
Deloy is very competitive, and his goal so expansive, which means he will be be buying most of the coins he is seeking with his checkbook wide open and little patience. I also tend to think that Deloy will not hold onto the set for long, but once finished, will promptly move to sell. This will also create a lot of buzz and be positive for the hobby. It probably won't be very positive for Deloy financially. Who knows? Deloy is collecting in the top sphere of numismatics and these are actually the coins that could do well when all the other widgets we collect continue to stagnate or decline.
Deloy is in his late 60s? Does he have enough time to finish the set to his own standards?
I think its all a net positive. Each collector has or her own interests and properties which changes over time. The pace and development of his collection is breathtaking. I have needed to compete with Del on few occasions, i feel John and Del are making for the most part very solid purchases. They appear to get outbid on a reasonable number of times and only rarely take a statute of liberty approach. So I think it's a positive for the high end market, which is positive for high end registry collectors and will as he gets closer to his goal, be great notice to the public that our hobby is alive and well and thriving.
Oh and from my interactions with him, i believe he is a very long term holder.
Given the recent, increasing, coverage of coins on CNN, Hansen is already making an impact. Hopefully, his entire collection will be showcased as well.
Gerry started after Hansen so I wonder what prompted him to start his collection? Was it the chance acquisition of the 1913 Liberty Nickel that kicked off the idea and effort? I wonder if Hansen had any effect on Forsythe starting this collection?
Grade inflation could be your friend.
How do you know ?
Oliver - I presume that his loss is my gain.
indeed.
I think perhaps if one looks no further than what experience DLRC brings to the table one might understand. When I think of the firm, two things jump to the forefront: 1894-S Barber dimes and Barber coinage in general. They weren’t known for their early coinage expertise but rather later 19th and earlier 20th century. And that’s where Del Loy is spending the money. Makes sense in that context.
If Tony Terranova (for example) was his advisor, I think we’d see a different emphasis
But why buy a nograde 1933 Eagle ? They are easy to buy if you dont need one in 4 weeks.
There are 40 of them, almost all of them better than nograde:
https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1933-10/8885
25 graded by PCGS62 or better.
If you notice the trend, it makes sense. He won’t ‘overpay’ for great coins - only for a multitude of lesser ones (merc dimes, for example). You and I know that you ALWAYS have to ‘overpay’ and the great coins are never cheap. He doesn’t have the experience to understand that some 1804 dollars are worse than others ...or that spending $1M for the best is better than $300k for something tooled. He sees it as throwing Hedgie’s price back in his face.
In the long run, who is to say which strategy is best. He won’t get some great coins but he won’t have to ‘overpay’ for them.
I understand all of that, but I wouldnt enjoy to look at a dull AU 1804 Dollar in a PR 62 holder compared to the wonderful PR 65. Its just not fun to look at AU or tooled coins, thats what I dont understand. I like to look at my coins.
I would rather have a coin for 5 Million I love than one for 3 Million I hate.
It takes time to become a connoisseur...it think it was rather telling when they said the reason for buying the tooled coin was a great one wasn’t available (at a good price) for two years. Pffft
You and I have been at this at an elevated level for near three decades. We have the experience to understand that quality outweighs price - as does opportunity
You guys done with the back-patting yet or is this scheduled to continue?
Well said, Bruce.
My biggest learning was to be patient (to wait for the right coin) and when it comes to go and buy it.
And sometimes you buy it cheap and sometimes expensive.
I find it both interesting and informative listening to two world class collectors.
The beatings will continue until morale improves...
My favorite coins are the ones that I ‘overpaid’ for...