State Of The Collectible Market

1Mike1

From writer Cyrus Sanati "Looking at the market as a whole, from 2008 to 2018, classic car values jumped a whopping 288%, according to Knight Frank, the London based real estate giant, making it the fastest growing collectible market for the rich. For comparison, classic car values grew five times faster than the fine art market which only increased 55% in the same time period. Classic cars also bested collectible watches 69%, stamps 103%, jewelry 138%, fine wine 178%, and rare coins 182%.". Interesting information on the high end collectible market. Thought it might be an interesting topic to discuss.

Paradisefound

Interesting stat @1Mike1
Fine wine fares slightly lower to rare coins ..... or maybe they were consumed by the same segment of population.
I wouldn't know either way .... but I do enjoy my libation slightly better than my coins.

1Mike1

Drinking your profits is never a good thing.

daltex

@1Mike1 said:
From writer Cyrus Sanati "Looking at the market as a whole, from 2008 to 2018, classic car values jumped a whopping 288%, according to Knight Frank, the London based real estate giant, making it the fastest growing collectible market for the rich. For comparison, classic car values grew five times faster than the fine art market which only increased 55% in the same time period. Classic cars also bested collectible watches 69%, stamps 103%, jewelry 138%, fine wine 178%, and rare coins 182%.". Interesting information on the high end collectible market. Thought it might be an interesting topic to discuss.

Wait. You're telling me stamps increased 7.34% per year over the last decade?

MFeld

I don’t know about the other categories, but the reported value increase for rare coins sounds way too high. I’m curious as to how it was determined.

Soldi

@MFeld said:
I don’t know about the other categories, but the reported value increase for rare coins sounds way too high. I’m curious as to how it was determined.

Classic cars bested collectible watches makes sense. What else makes sense is the "high end" collectible market goes to show us you can't just buy any old thing.

I agree rare coins sounds too high, so maybe only those with a "high end" collection.

jmlanzaf

@MFeld said:
I don’t know about the other categories, but the reported value increase for rare coins sounds way too high. I’m curious as to how it was determined.

This must be very selective. Stamp values, in general, have dropped considerably over 10 years but not the 50k+ segment. If he's only looking at 5 or 6 figure items, it says very little about the overall market.

oldabeintx

I call BS.

ricko

Interesting, however, without knowing the details of the survey (who conducted it, how, where etc.) it is just data... Once the 'rest of the story' is known, it can become information - either good or bad. We have all seen 'polls' in the past... Cheers, RickO

johnny9434

Would there be other polls to maybe back this up or maybe not?

topstuf

Soooooo....if there aren't any, they do well?

291fifth

The "makers" are "takers".

Broadstruck

The Classic Car values will drop as most all are aged like Stamp collectors nearly 6 feet under.

Younger generations will want a souped up Honda Accord not a 57 Chevy.

Cougar1978

The PCGS 3000 appears to have dropped from slightly over 70000 in 2008 to its current 55402.

neildrobertson

@Cougar1978 said:
The PCGS 3000 appears to have dropped from slightly over 70000 in 2008 to its current 55402.

Yes. Because of this I highly question the data used in the original post.

topstuf

The only way to get coins competitive with classic cars would be to have huge electric flashing bezels.
Ones that would constantly flash the price of the coin,

Cars have done well due to the enormous egos of the VERY wealthy.
A cool Delahaye,.,

....is gonna SCREAM .... I'm richer than you !! wherever anyone takes it.

To be sought, it's best to be visible. And so enormously more expensive than the peons can have that the wealthy the world over will clamor for it.

topstuf

And wodda WE got?

"It's nice. I like it."

2dueces

The Art world has done quite well also.

Zoins

@1Mike1 said:
From writer Cyrus Sanati "Looking at the market as a whole, from 2008 to 2018, classic car values jumped a whopping 288%, according to Knight Frank, the London based real estate giant, making it the fastest growing collectible market for the rich. For comparison, classic car values grew five times faster than the fine art market which only increased 55% in the same time period. Classic cars also bested collectible watches 69%, stamps 103%, jewelry 138%, fine wine 178%, and rare coins 182%.". Interesting information on the high end collectible market. Thought it might be an interesting topic to discuss.

That means coins have been going up around 11% per year.

Does this mean coins are a way better investment than stocks if the S&P went up 6.5% per year

291fifth

Never trust statistics that are related to sales pitches.

Baley

Percentage returns for "select blue chip" assets is not the same as the return on typical or "average" assets within a class or category.

Same holds true for stocks and real estate. Articles like this are not talking about common Morgan dollars, your wife's wedding ring, Kinkaid paintings, or that 67 mustang my neighbor has been working on for 10 years.

Zoins

@Baley said:
Percentage returns for "select blue chip" assets is not the same as the return on typical or "average" assets within a class or category.

Same holds true for stocks and real estate. Articles like this are not talking about common Morgan dollars, your wife's wedding ring, Kinkaid paintings, or that 67 mustang my neighbor has been working on for 10 years.

We know about bifurcation so the smart money would be on blue chip coins.

Baley

@Zoins said:

@Baley said:
Percentage returns for "select blue chip" assets is not the same as the return on typical or "average" assets within a class or category.

Same holds true for stocks and real estate. Articles like this are not talking about common Morgan dollars, your wife's wedding ring, Kinkaid paintings, or that 67 mustang my neighbor has been working on for 10 years.

We know about bifurcation so the smart money would be on blue chip coins.

It doesn't appear some of the replies do, or else have forgotten.

And it's probably better characterized as a multi-furcation, as there are more than 2 levels, indeed dimensions.

metalmeister

Coins aren't the only collectibles being faked. Classic cars (clones), Antiques, Wine labels, etc.
Buyer beware.

shorecoll

The coin thing is easy to figure...they only interviewed TDN! Seriously, everything is niche, niche, niche...my sister has a decent 68 Camaro, sorry...69's and 70's are now "IT".

djm

@1Mike1 said:
From writer Cyrus Sanati "Looking at the market as a whole, from 2008 to 2018, classic car values jumped a whopping 288%, according to Knight Frank, the London based real estate giant, making it the fastest growing collectible market for the rich. For comparison, classic car values grew five times faster than the fine art market which only increased 55% in the same time period. Classic cars also bested collectible watches 69%, stamps 103%, jewelry 138%, fine wine 178%, and rare coins 182%.". Interesting information on the high end collectible market. Thought it might be an interesting topic to discuss.

You should have posted the entire article about the Pebble Beach Concourse d'Elegance. The article was referring to the fact that even the ultra rich were not spending in this economy and sales were severely down both in the number of vehicles sold and the total dollar amount of the sale. The portion posted above shows that collectable cars still out performed the rest of the collectable field.

djm

@Broadstruck said:
The Classic Car values will drop as most all are aged like Stamp collectors nearly 6 feet under.

Younger generations will want a souped up Honda Accord not a 57 Chevy.

They are not talking about widgets. They are talking about true classics such as Turbo Cords, Auburn Boat Tail Speedsters, ultra rare Porsches and other cars in excess of 1 million dollars.

MasonG

Depending on the posts you read here, either the hobby is dying a slow death or it's getting to be nearly impossible to buy anything without getting outbid at auction anymore.

DIMEMAN

@neildrobertson said:

@Cougar1978 said:
The PCGS 3000 appears to have dropped from slightly over 70000 in 2008 to its current 55402.

Yes. Because of this I highly question the data used in the original post.

PCGS stock prices really has nothing to do with the price of coins.

neildrobertson

@DIMEMAN said:

@neildrobertson said:

@Cougar1978 said:
The PCGS 3000 appears to have dropped from slightly over 70000 in 2008 to its current 55402.

Yes. Because of this I highly question the data used in the original post.

PCGS stock prices really has nothing to do with the price of coins.

It's not a stock price. It's an index that's a composite of the price guide price for 3000 coins that they've selected to be representative of the coin market. The PCGS price guide is not 100% accurate, but I'd still expect overall trends in the index to reflect the overall state of the market and pricing.

https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pcgs3000

jmlanzaf

@MasonG said:
Depending on the posts you read here, either the hobby is dying a slow death or it's getting to be nearly impossible to buy anything without getting outbid at auction anymore.

lol. So true.

But, honestly, both are probably true. If you have high end tastes and the budget to back it, your other wealthy friends are always outbidding you. On the other hand, good luck finding someone to buy your widgets.

jmlanzaf

@neildrobertson said:

@DIMEMAN said:

@neildrobertson said:

@Cougar1978 said:
The PCGS 3000 appears to have dropped from slightly over 70000 in 2008 to its current 55402.

Yes. Because of this I highly question the data used in the original post.

PCGS stock prices really has nothing to do with the price of coins.

It's not a stock price. It's an index that's a composite of the price guide price for 3000 coins that they've selected to be representative of the coin market. The PCGS price guide is not 100% accurate, but I'd still expect overall trends in the index to reflect the overall state of the market and pricing.

I always like to show the index from 1989 to the present...

I do wonder how the coins were chosen @heatherboyd Is it attempting to create a volume weighted index? A dollar weighted index?

neildrobertson

@jmlanzaf said:
I do wonder how the coins were chosen @heatherboyd Is it attempting to create a volume weighted index? A dollar weighted index?

My assumption is that they built the index by summing up the 3000 coin prices and then scaling it down to a $1000 using 1970 as the basis.

I don't think volume factors into it at all. They likely don't have that information available. I suspect there are some high value rare coins that have a disproportionate impact on the index compared to lower value, commonly traded items as a result.

If you go from 1970 to present, the PCGS 3000 suggests that coin prices have outpaced the S&P 500. I find hard to believe given how the last 10 years have gone, but I wasn't around for the 70s and 80s in coins. Looking at 1990 to present is a different story and much less attractive.

I was a little kid in the late 80s and early 90s when the collectible world of baseball cards and comics were completely and utterly saturated. From what I can tell, the card/comic companies nearly killed the market back then.

What do people have to say about Magic The Gathering cards and other collectible cards now? It seems like comic books are in a place now where people mostly do it for the love of it and not for investment purposes.

thefinn

Wait. You're telling me stamps increased 7.34% per year over the last decade?

Makes sense actually. The FOREVER stamps now keep up with the rate of inflation.

selling3

@Broadstruck said:
The Classic Car values will drop as most all are aged like Stamp collectors nearly 6 feet under.

Younger generations will want a souped up Honda Accord not a 57 Chevy.

If anyone doubts this, go to a few car shows. I always joke that it's like visiting a retirement home.

oldabeintx

The author's definitions and sources are unknown.

selling3

@topstuf said:
The only way to get coins competitive with classic cars would be to have huge electric flashing bezels.
Ones that would constantly flash the price of the coin,

WHOA, make that flashing price update constantly and you just came up with "the latest and greatest thing" to hit the coin market in years!! Run with this idea.

jmlanzaf

@neildrobertson said:

@jmlanzaf said:
I do wonder how the coins were chosen @heatherboyd Is it attempting to create a volume weighted index? A dollar weighted index?

My assumption is that they built the index by summing up the 3000 coin prices and then scaling it down to a $1000 using 1970 as the basis.

I don't think volume factors into it at all. They likely don't have that information available. I suspect there are some high value rare coins that have a disproportionate impact on the index compared to lower value, commonly traded items as a result.

If you go from 1970 to present, the PCGS 3000 suggests that coin prices have outpaced the S&P 500. I find hard to believe given how the last 10 years have gone, but I wasn't around for the 70s and 80s in coins. Looking at 1990 to present is a different story and much less attractive.

I was a little kid in the late 80s and early 90s when the collectible world of baseball cards and comics were completely and utterly saturated. From what I can tell, the card/comic companies nearly killed the market back then.

What do people have to say about Magic The Gathering cards and other collectible cards now? It seems like comic books are in a place now where people mostly do it for the love of it and not for investment purposes.

That is not what I'm asking. If you want to create an index to mirror a market, there's a couple ways to do it. You can choose representative samples that mimic the market breadth [appropriate number of widgets, high end coins, etc.] based on the % of each segment in the market. Alternatively, you could choose coins designed to mimic the market breadth based on $ representation. It makes a huge different in how well the index mimics the market.

neildrobertson

@jmlanzaf said:

That is not what I'm asking. If you want to create an index to mirror a market, there's a couple ways to do it. You can choose representative samples that mimic the market breadth [appropriate number of widgets, high end coins, etc.] based on the % of each segment in the market. Alternatively, you could choose coins designed to mimic the market breadth based on $ representation. It makes a huge different in how well the index mimics the market.

I understand what you are asking. I think PCGS could have selected coins with some of those concepts in mind. If you look at the coins on the list, anything after ~1945 is absent, which means it ignores the prices of more contemporary items, a large portion of the coin market by volume. It only includes MS grades for coins other than key dates and rarities. At least some common date Morgans are included. I highly doubt that they factored in volume into the actual calculation.

It seems safe to say it was not built with the entire coin market in mind, which means it has limited quantitative value. However, the list is expansive enough that I think you would have a tough time arguing that the coin market is doing well when the index is not. The other indices that they have available do not list the coins included in the index

cameonut2011

@1Mike1 said:
From writer Cyrus Sanati "Looking at the market as a whole, from 2008 to 2018, classic car values jumped a whopping 288%, according to Knight Frank, the London based real estate giant, making it the fastest growing collectible market for the rich. For comparison, classic car values grew five times faster than the fine art market which only increased 55% in the same time period. Classic cars also bested collectible watches 69%, stamps 103%, jewelry 138%, fine wine 178%, and rare coins 182%.". Interesting information on the high end collectible market. Thought it might be an interesting topic to discuss.

Someone is full of it (the author of the article).

jmlanzaf

@neildrobertson said:

@jmlanzaf said:

That is not what I'm asking. If you want to create an index to mirror a market, there's a couple ways to do it. You can choose representative samples that mimic the market breadth [appropriate number of widgets, high end coins, etc.] based on the % of each segment in the market. Alternatively, you could choose coins designed to mimic the market breadth based on $ representation. It makes a huge different in how well the index mimics the market.

I understand what you are asking. I think PCGS could have selected coins with some of those concepts in mind. If you look at the coins on the list, anything after ~1945 is absent, which means it ignores the prices of more contemporary items, a large portion of the coin market by volume. It only includes MS grades for coins other than key dates and rarities. At least some common date Morgans are included. I highly doubt that they factored in volume into the actual calculation.

It seems safe to say it was not built with the entire coin market in mind, which means it has limited quantitative value. However, the list is expansive enough that I think you would have a tough time arguing that the coin market is doing well when the index is not. The other indices that they have available do not list the coins included in the index

i agree with you right up until the last two sentences. The problem is the bifurcation of the market. If your index has too much high end material, in a bifurcated market like we have now it could be giving erroneous signals on the broader (by volume) segment of the market.

As you mention, there are no moderns in there. Is there adequate representation of widgets (common date BU Morgans, Walkers, Mercs,etc.) to show the carnage in that segment of the market? I'm not sure. But I think a PCGS volume weighted Morgan $ average would show something very different.

7over8

Stamps??? Please.

jmlanzaf

@7over8 said:
Stamps??? Please.

It's true of $100,000 stamps. Sadly, it's not remotely true of even $100 stamps much less $10 stamps.

topstuf

@selling3 said:

@Broadstruck said:
The Classic Car values will drop as most all are aged like Stamp collectors nearly 6 feet under.

Younger generations will want a souped up Honda Accord not a 57 Chevy.

If anyone doubts this, go to a few car shows. I always joke that it's like visiting a retirement home.

Yes, but wait til the oldsters stop not only collecting stuff, but also stop financing the grandkids.

jmlanzaf

@topstuf said:

@selling3 said:

@Broadstruck said:
The Classic Car values will drop as most all are aged like Stamp collectors nearly 6 feet under.

Younger generations will want a souped up Honda Accord not a 57 Chevy.

If anyone doubts this, go to a few car shows. I always joke that it's like visiting a retirement home.

Yes, but wait til the oldsters stop not only collecting stuff, but also stop financing the grandkids.

It's the stamp problem...and maybe cars and coins and art... When an old-timer dies, it's a double-whammy. That's one less collector and one MORE collection that the market needs to absorb.