Rarity versus value
Ebeneezer
Posts: 264 ✭✭✭
I picked this one up from a local coin dealer having stopped yesterday only to leave her behind. With visions of owning this in my mind, after all, he had it listed at $1325 but offered it to me for 1200 since I was a loyal customer. Reflecting on the matter it occurred to me. With a mintage of 72,000 this was the deal of a lifetime when comparing it to the 1916d Winged Liberty (Mercury) and it's mintage of 264,000. You can't buy a VG8 for 1200. After a phone call this morning, twenty minutes later she was mine.
So could someone explain the logic behind placing a value on rarity? If you were doing the math I purchased a coin with roughly 1/4th the mintage, three full grades higher and approximately one third the cost of a like grade specimen. Popularity is all that I can think of as to why. Thoughts?
Comments
More people want to put together a complete date and mint mark set of winged liberty dimes than Seated liberty quarters.
Makes a big difference in demand.
This is a joke right????????????? The 1844 quarter PCGS XF-45 pictured is a $200 coin, I seriously hope you did not pay $1200. According to PCGS, this coin sold on eBay last year for $255 and more recently, another one sold on eBay for $163. Also, the mintage on this coin is 421,200, not 72,000.
@ArizonaRareCoins is right on the mark. PCGS Price Guide is $200 and it previously sold on June 3, 2018 for $255.
I wonder if the OP will be rethinking his loyalty, and if the dealer has a return policy?
Ouch!
BTW: Welcome to our forum, Ebeneezer. This is the place to come to for truth and opinion, and learn to differentiate between the two.
OINK
Where are these buyers at when I'm selling something, man talk about buried.
Its a nice coin, but holy cow!
if this is a true story the buyer needs to slow down and learn before making any more purchases and the dealer is a predator that should be outed and avoided.
I'm thinking of getting some PR63 later date Seated dimes to offer you at $46,000 each, even if you aren't a loyal customer.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars
Edit Delete, sorry broke my own rule of not posting what I own on the internet.
I think the OP is confusing the 1844 Quarter with the 1844 Dime.
Notwithstanding the issue of the price paid on this 1844 Seated quarter, scarcity is not always commensurate with prices if one were to apply it equally across the numismatic spectrum. It is all about the demand of a coin or series relative to its supply. Collectors know that the popular series "key dates" are not scarce in an absolute sense, they are just the least common coins of the series.
I personally prefer overall scarcity. An example would be the $5 or $10 Liberty gold coins. Some dates have a numismatic premium only 50% -100% over their intrinsic gold value, but are overall a hundred times scarcer than coin dates in the more popular coin series. Not as many folks building $10 gold Liberty sets as there are folks building Mercury dime sets.
Wow... I hope @Ebeneezer sees this thread and can return the coin.... That is really sad. As to the OP question regarding rarity/value....it is the basic market rule - supply vs. demand....Cheers, RickO
Popularity always wins.
If I am reading what he said. He stopped at the shop to sell and while leaving he was thinking of buying the above coin. I hope he saying he picked up 1200.00 cash for his coin and the above in trade for something he brought to sell.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
It doesn’t sound that way to me. He wrote: “..after all, he had it listed at $1325 but offered it to me for 1200.”
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Proof that not all dealers are saints.
With the bean craze, maybe the dealer or purchaser thought the green sticker was worth $1,000? 😆😳
Indian Head $10 Gold Date Set Album
My apologies on the wrong file photo in my haste and excitement. I simply saw 1844 listed alphabetically in my folder and selected it. Thank you for pointing that out. On that subject I believe I paid in the neighborhood of $300 for the quarter at a coin show a last year. Anyhow, this is the correct photo.
So, instead of paying $1200 for a $200 coin, you paid $1200 for a $750 coin......you still need to find a new coin dealer:
https://coins.ha.com/itm/seated-dimes/dimes/1844-10c-xf40-pcgs-pcgs-population-23-35-ngc-census-1-20-cdn-850-whsle-bid-for-problem-free-ngc-pcgs-xf40-mint/a/1271-7863.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
To answer the OP question, the number of Liberty Seated dime collectors is a lot lower than for the Mercury for a variety of reasons.
One: The relative scarcity and cost of both. Few collectors can afford (or are willing to commit the funds) to complete the liberty seated series and even if they wanted to do so, all the coins don't exist in sufficient supply, especially in the quality most collectors want today.
Two: it's also evident among bigger budget buyers that they just like the Mercury design more. Take a look at the prices of the more expensive Mercury dimes and the TPG population data. It's evident that, to the extent the coins are available, these buyers can afford to compete for most liberty seated dimes, even if in somewhat lower grades. They just don't.
Three: There aren't that many collectors (relatively) who will buy an expensive and somewhat scarce coin just because it is scarce. The 1844 dime isn't common but it isn't really that scarce either. It has a story behind it that some find appealing and to my recollection, is more expensive but concurrently more common than several other coins in this series.
By the way, both the quarter and dime are nice. I like both.
A few decades ago, the 1844 dime, despite it's relatively moderate mintage of 72,500, was extremely hard to locate. The coin was given the nickname of "little orphan annie". At the end of the last century, a large hoard of 1844 dimes hit the market and it's price plunged. Today, the 1844 dime is considered only moderately rare. There are dozens of much tougher key-dates, in the series, with mintages around 10,000......this is how rarity and availability ultimately works. JMO
ARC pretty much summed it up
The coin price may be a bit high, but please point me in the direction of dealer who prices his semi-key, key dates and better date coins the same as found in recent auction prices because I have yet to find one. BTW, Gerry Fortin sold two XF45 coins-pcgs and NGC for $1,550 Dec. of 2018. As you know, he is the go to Liberty Seated dealer selling to hardcore Seated collectors. Lastly, you pointed out a plastic grade. Did you consider that coin might be a bit of an ugly dog?
The 1844 “Little Orphan Annie”, recent hoard notwithstanding, is still hundreds of times scarcer than The 1916-D. Like the poster, it perplexes me also how coins so much scarcer are trumped by coins so common, yet so pricey. I get it, but I don’t.
I could literally own any grade 1916-D 30 seconds after I post this message. Where would I find a nice XF40 1844?
When it comes to SELLING Seated Liberty coins rather than BUYING them ... are dealers lining up to pay big premiums?
I suspect the line is a very short one.
Many better date Seated Liberty coins have been the subject of hoarding over the past 40 years. Most are less rare than the mintages would suggest but have supply problems in the current market due to such hoarding. The hoarding has made it very difficult to complete sets of Seated Liberty coins and this difficulty has driven many potential collectors away from this market.
Supply vs. demand.
ARCO your comment that Gerry Fortin is the “go to Liberty Seated dealer” is not accurate regarding Seated dollars.
I collect Seated Halves. Good to know there are other liberty Seated dealers.
Do not forget attrition.
In my view:
The 1844 10c is a $1050 coin retail.
The 1844 25c is about a $190 coin retail.
Wow. You guys are hard. Truth be told I enjoy hear it. Yes I did pay above the average, slightly. Yes I'm very familiar with Gerry Fortin. Last emailed him about a possible new 1889 DDR (as of yet graded) having enough to see without magnification. Yes this series is difficult, and quite possibly impossible to complete without some very deep pockets. Knowing this made me attempt it even more so. Why not a series few others can appreciate? Lastly, despite over paying on a few here and there the majority were under by more so over the series I'm still ahead of the game.
Appreciate all the posts equally. Thanks people!
Most of the comments come from people who have learned certain things the hard way. Almost always, what they say is motivated by a desire to help people. Harsh? Yeah, sometimes. I like that you like scarcity, but don't expect everyone to see it the same way. Coins are popular for no good reason sometimes. Good luck changing that.
Rarity
Scarcity
Desirability
Until these terms are crystal clear, do not invest more than $5.
Rare could mean few produced / few survived
Scarce: Not many AVAILABLE at this time
Desirability: Who wants it ?
Could be easier to peruse some of the Foreign coins. Many a RARE (few were ever made, maybe 10,000 ) and now SCARCE (of the 10,000 that were made, all but 50 have been lost or melted), but desirable? There are only 3 people on the planet that collect them, so there are 17X the number available than desired.
Cherry pickers guide shows all sorts of coins that are RARE (strange errors, double dies, etc.) and SCARCE (only a few are available and are listed at HIGH PRICES in the guide) but no one buys them because, well, they just don't.
I play in the pool of old cars. This question comes up over and over. Many cars are truly rare, but at what level. For example, 1967 Mustang had with 3 body styles, 28 different exterior colors, 6 engine choice, 6 transmission types, 21 different interiors, tinted or non tinted glass, deluxe or standard interior, AC or no AC, Power Brakes or no power brakes, Power Steering or no power steering, 4 different tire options, and PRESTO: There are almost 8 million possible combinations. The production was 427,212 then at least 93% of the combinations were never made, and that does not count that many were built "standard" (base engine, trans, common color, options). Even worse, Ford would allow a buyer to provide paint (custom color) or even pick another color (International Harvester Orange) if desired.
There is even a report that goes into a deeper level of options and at the bottom, it tells you it is 1 of 168 or whatever, and there are a lot of 1 of 1 cars. CROW CROW CROW, I have a unique car. True, but it was a dead dog ugly car (Lime Green exterior with Blue seats, no AC or PS, smallest engine, etc.)
It is estimated that 9% of the cars have survived, a huge number, as most cars of that era were at less than 3% at 15 years.
Others have nailed it pretty well. Part of the “desirability” equation is also knowledge and/or awareness, which I suppose also depends on marketing. The examples that come to mind for me are: the 1948 Canadian dollar, the king of Canadian dollars, with a mintage of only 18000, and in MS63 a $2-3000 coin. Can you imagine what a Morgan with the same mintage would bring? Then toss in the 1947 Maple Leaf dollar. Also minted in 1948, with a mintage of 21000, and yet only half the value of a dated 1948, because the knowledge factor has most collectors thinking it’s just another 1947 “variety”. Lots of factors at play in our hobby.
When I was a young collector one of the first lessons I learned was that value is a function of supply and demand.
Mintages were fun to memorize and compare, but they were virtually meaningless when learning value/cost. The coin coveted most by Lincoln cent collectors is the 1909S VDB but at 484,000 the mintage towers above many other far less expensive coins, especially if you include foreign.
Mintages might matter within a series, but are pretty irrelevant when comparing different series that have entirely different collector bases.
With the registry set madness, probably a billion dollars.