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What Percentage of Collectors and Dealers Can Grade?
cameonut2011
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Using prevailing PCGS/NGC/CAC standards, what percentage of collectors and dealers can grade a coin accurately and identify problem coins without blind reliance on the label?
This is a serious question and not a troll thread. The question presumes that grading expertise for a collector would be limited to areas where he/she collects.
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They can all grade but some can grade more accurately than others.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Pretty open question. Maybe specify some accuracy and/or precision critieria. I find I tend to grade pretty accurately overall, but my standard deviation is probably one 'notch' or so. For some people this is pretty good, others seem to not so much. Also series dependent of course.
Aercus Numismatics - Certified coins for sale
42.0%
How can you specify accuracy when the grade is an opinion and when the same coin is sent to the same TPG you can easily get a different grade?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
....or when grading standards change over the years.
Or when the different coins of the same series are graded differently.
1920 & 1920-S saints for example.
How about 1907 (+1/3) or 1911-D (-1/3)
The population gets compressed into a certain range so there is more diversity in a particular grade.
Look at low grade branch mint commons as a good example.
My Saint Set
As stated above, grading is certainly an inexact science, or maybe an art. Just look at some of the GTG threads here. You get a coin put up to have us all guess the grade. And, you'll see guesses anywhere from AU-50 to MS-66DMPL for a coin that's PCGS MS-64, and we're all looking at the same pictures. Most guesses will be in the MS-63 to MS-65 range for that coin, which makes me believe most people here are pretty closely aligned. But, that's still one point differential on either side of the grade given by PCGS. I guess that's why the crack-out game still exists - maybe you'll get a favorable grading the next time you submit.
Rocking my "shiny-object-syndrome"!!!
Since grading standards do not exist, only grading guidelines exist, the question is impossible to answer. If you mean how many collectors and dealers will have the same opinion as PCGS/NGC/CAC, that's very difficult to answer without testing a representative sample.
Think about using Board members here as a sample, how many complain how 'wrongly' the TPG has graded their coins ... and how often that 'error' in a grade lower that what the 'real' (i.e. owner's) grade of the coin is.
If you ask collectors and dealers to self-report, it will be highly skewed in favor of how 'good' they are ... irrespective of real knowledge and skills. In other words, they will all be from Lake Wobegon.
Edited for spelling ...
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
The grading standard COLLECTORS should use is the grading standard DEALERS use when BUYING. I would estimate that well under 50% of collectors are skillful enough at grading to actually do this. When it comes to spotting surface alterations such as cleaning the numbers are even lower.
Some of the posters on this forum are very skillful graders while many others clearly are not. Just look at the "guess the grade threads" if you doubt this.
Collectors who are not skillful graders and who are willing to admit it, should select a trusted dealer to work with when buying coins.
The internet seems to have created a group of "internet only" collectors who are particularly out of touch with the ability to both grade and detect surface alterations and counterfeits.
Many dealers know two different grading standards for raw coins---the one they use when buying and the one they use for selling.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
I would say I’m better at grading circ. coins vs mint state. Mostly what I collect is circulated coins. I also think some series are harder to grade than others. So many things to take into account when grading certain dates. I think a good way to practice your skills are to not look at the grades and grade them yourself. Looking at the registry sets are a good way to practice your skills.
I would say my eye to pick out better coins is very good. That’s basically confirmed when I show dealers some of my coins. I also look at problem coins to study we’re the problems are. Especially plugged or tooled coins but you can only do so much from pictures.
My guess - It varies across the board. My take - it depends on experience. My concern is my grading skills not theirs.
Once one starts doing submissions the skill can be fine tuned. I had an ANA grading course years ago taught by JP Martin and since my skills fine tuned by submissions and bourse room experience. I can grade but don’t claim to be an expert grader. Before I send submissions I jot down estimated minimum and potential grades. Haven’t had anything go under minimum and a few upgrade. Having a good numismatic library is another plus.
What does PCGS require for their graders? Is there a Grading School, a rigorous course of grading, an apprentice program?? I'm still wanting to be able to look at a coin and give an accurate grade, but I've a lot of reference books to buy to learn the grading steps. What percentage of collectors grade like the pros???? I would guess perhaps 20%.
I thought I could grade.
Then some results posted yesterday and our host simply kicked me square in the jewels and laughed at my grading ability.
My thoughts too, but it's not just for raw coins. If it's graded/slabbed when he's buying a coin from you, he'll usually say something like, "wow they were generous with that grade" but when he's selling the same coin, he'll say something like, I'm thinking about cracking this one out and re-sending for a better grade or this one should be able to easily get a gold bean.
Without standards, we live with opinions....It is true, that based on guidelines, a general consensus can be reached. However, the consensus is based on opinions and therefore not fact. Until standards are developed, we will live with generalizations, coins will migrate through the crack out game, and debates and GTG will continue.... Remember... without standards, ANY assigned grade is a GTG. Graders guess and look for consensus...Cheers, RickO
Very good question. Something does not need to be immutable to be able to measured against, however. Let's say "getting the same grade as a pcgs holder". Yes a coin may receive slightly different grades for each submission, but the variance is not large, typically. Consider measuring a certain tool's agreement with a reference device. The reference device is not infallible but it is still "the standard". Similar situation here.
Aercus Numismatics - Certified coins for sale
Anyone been to a dealer's shop and seen a bunch of undergraded coins? Yeah, me neither. Dealers may overgrade, but they rarely undergrade. Most brick and mortar dealers I have been to seem to nail it pretty close.
Grading may be an art but grading COMPANIES .....certainly....are.
The grading companies use different standards within their own company regarding rarities. Look at a 1911, 1912 1913, 1914, 1915 saint in a pcgs ms65 holder. 98% it will look like a 1908,1924,1925,1927,1928 looks like in ms67.
I had graded hundreds of morgan dollars and could grade them quite accurately when I ran across a fresh 1889-cc in ms63 that I said MUST be a 64, 64+ or even ms65 based on the standards I was so accurate on. I paid up for the coin and kept sending it in not understanding why it never would not ms64. Eventually cac saw it and gave it a green bean and I learned my big lesson. Rarer coins tend to be graded on a different scale and in order for an 1889-cc to go ms64 it must look like an ms65. Of course some time later I came across my coin again- in an ms64 holder.
Point is, whos standard is correct?
With today's gradefaltion (as it's not uncommon to see a coin jump 2 whole points in fresh plastic) I wonder how many professional graders can actually grade?
Only when they are selling. The way money was made before the slab era was to buy as a fine and sell as a very fine, etc.
Is he buying the coin or selling the coin?
That's a joke.
Agree 100%
I'm thinking there are basically 3 levels of technical grading even thought there should only be one by definition.
+1/3 point........Right on..........-1/3 point
Compressed depending on rarity & skewed by top pops.
Now add a market grading premium & an eye appeal bump/cut and you've got +/- one full grade.
Presto, a 65 becomes a 67 and vice-versa.
My Saint Set
I would guess that about 80% of all collectors are only guessing and hoping they are right. The only basis they have to go on is other, perhaps graded coins they have seen, directly accepting someone else's OPINION.
As i said it soooooo often and say it again:
unless a basic norm for grading is established and recognized and adhered to by all involved, anyone's grades are their personal opinions ONLY. my favorite example is this: please point out the difference between a MS66 and a MS67 coin, so ANYONE will recognize it and understand why it is .
It will get extremely tricky if the 1/2 grades are involved, or god forbid, decimal grades. But, maybe decimal grades are not so bad after all????
A 20th Century specialist might be a total toad on EAC coins and pretty damn good on dollars.
EAC specialists might be pretty good on pre-Liberty gold but suck at Lincolns and Buffalos.
All these guys are mostly throwing darts at Moderns and wondering why much deeper marks are allowed on gem-level Franklins than gem-level Peace $1's.
Serious Standing Quarter collectors know the difference between TPG full heads and the real top-ends for the dates.
I used to be great at the 59/63 line on Bust and Seated. It disappeared.
People who can grade Morgans don't really need to know much else. Some don't.
I once told John Albanese (self-described as "a little over-rated") I was thrilled to agree with myself 92% of the time.
Both of us are lost when it comes to the 25-30 line on Small Eagle and Peace $1's.
YMMV
@ReadyFireAim said: "I'm thinking there are basically 3 levels of technical grading even thought there should only be one by definition.
I was getting ready to jump all over you for not having a "clue" about technical grading. Lucky for me (before making a fool of myself) I read your post again. You are correct. There is only one true technical grading standard. It is not used AT ALL except in some basic grading seminars. True technical grading is very precise because it is very strict.
50% of collectors and 50% of dealers are above average.
Does that help?
Coin grading is really easy to teach. I'll try to answer this question as an educational post only for beginners in Basic Grading 101.: BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS IS NOT FOLLOWED: Check out the recently discussed MS-67 $20.
This is mostly dealing with "moderns" as a typical vintage coin - even in 67, has many imperfections. I guess for most of us, after a while, it becomes a case of you know a 67 or 66 when you see one.
Virtually no hairlines. You won't need magnification to see them, just a bright light and proper orientation to it.
Fully original above average luster
Way above average eye appeal. A coin you rarely encounter without a Wow! Attractive toning may get the 66 a point up to 67.
So, the basic difference between these two grades comes down to the SIZE, LOCATION, and NUMBER of marks including hairlines and tiny spots.
Note: Marks = defects of any kind. Tiny mint-made defects may be overlooked by some graders.
You didn't ask but for me a 70 has none.
A 69 has one and you may need to look for it.
A 68 has a very few tiny marks (including spots). They are not obvious.
A 67 has less than four TINY marks that may not all be obvious.
A 66 has just a few more marks. Generally they are still very small and not detracting. Start marking up the fields of either of these two grades so the marks are obvious and the grade drops FAST.
Forget about most of this post if you are trying to put a value on a rare coin!
See comment above.
If there were accepted standards, and if all, some, a few bothered to learn the details, and if they could see all sides of a coin, and if they also learned to be impartial, then maybe 10%. Under the present "label looking" situation, maybe 5% of full-time dealers and 0.5% of real collectors (i.e., not just deep pockets and shallow brains).
OK -- these might be optimistic guesses -- think of them as analogous to AU coins in MS labeled holders....
Everyone. They just disagree on each other’s grades.
Less than the percentage that think they can.
Anyone looking to test their grading abilities is encouraged to participate in our upcoming competition at the Long Beach Expo. The 1st place winner will receive $1000 in grading credits, a PCGS Nike Drifit polo, a Coinfacts periodic table of coins poster and a swanky 1st Place trophy to ensure long-term bragging rights
Heather Boyd
PCGS Senior Director of Marketing
Heather,
sounds good...I would finally get to meet your doggy...
ONLY, it will cost me 2000 on airfare and another 1500 on Hotel plus, I love food and certain California wines...
is PCGS inviting????
Fun aside, even the winner would be at the mercy of the judges...OPINIONS.
Insider 2
I hear and fully understand what you are saying and how you approach the issue.
it is your opinion and I respect that. Others might have another opinion and again another collector or dealer might say: you must be kidding or out to lunch.
I will however say this: with scarce coins, a fraction, not necessarily a full point higher grade (again an opinion) might be much better expressed and might be better understood in pricing. I.E how much more expensive it is...or lower priced whichever the case might be. It could be perfectly adapted to your explanation.
Think about using the decimal points of 10 between the actual grades.
I can already hear the argument on a 10 K coin
About the same percentage who can sing.
Some, very well, no doubt.
Some, passably, if they sing with a group.
Some just move their mouths, make a lot of noise, and embarrass themselves.
(One should never grade in the shower, however.)
I’ve trained myself to try and grade as Pcgs/ CAC does. It’s made my life a lot easier
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Depends if they are buying or selling.
If you want an actual number I'd guestimate around 15%. Hell most people can't even distinguish AT let alone a numerical grade.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I would put it at the 50% range if you include Pre-screening
I am trying to learn myself. It takes time and no matter who the person is you have to do
the time yourself. No magic magic just alot of reading, help from Graders & others and time.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
Gravity is no friend when grading in shower.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
Thank you everyone for the excellent discussion! As many of you noticed, I intentionally left the question open ended and very broad to allow for differing experiences and fields. A few thoughts:
For those that cite lack of consistency or a lack of a consensus standard, I am largely sympathetic to your argument; however, there must be something that we as a collecting community rely on. If coin grading is akin to throwing darts and hoping that something sticks, then what is all of the hubbub with metallic green plastic wafers and fractions of a grade on a label? There must be something and that something is what I was hoping to target with this thread.
As for consistency more broadly, I think David Hall, John Albanese, and others have opined that the concordance rate among world class graders is around 80% or so. How many collectors or dealers can grade within a half a point with a 60% concordance rate? How about 50%; how many could beat the odds of predicting a coin toss? What it we extend it out to +/- one point of the label grade (i.e. a two point range)? How do these numbers compare generally (for all regular issue U.S. coins) and for individual specialities?
My estimate was 5-10% across the board could hit the TPG label within +/- 1 point based on my interactions in recent years and maybe 10-15% if we restrict to certain series/specialties .
Before anyone asks, this was not intended as a covert CAC or grade inflation thread. The impetus for this thread was Mark Feld's recent post about advice for newer collectors. I remarked that in addition to his points, I would be weary of any coin that lost most or much of its value when it was cracked out. While I obviously had modern "PF70/MS70" and registry quality coins where fractions of a point can mean several orders of magnitude of difference in price in mind, I began to think about my own comment. How many our "gems" could we obtain a fair price for without the assistance of a TPG slab/label?
Your last paragraph speaks to coins which stand on their own merits. If you can acquire such examples at reasonable or realistic prices, you’re probably doing well.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
RE: "Your last paragraph speaks to coins which stand on their own merits."
So--- those are the coins that "have legs" so to speak....;)
Fewer dealers then you know can grade. Some make their livings off of white mogans and circ gold. Don't be fooled.
As far as collectors, I'd say fewer then 1% really know how to grade Ex Link, Morlean, Blay, etc They all sit on the bourse floors and learn by trading and grading
I think most collectors have a decent idea about grade and designations. It’s a select few that submit to TPGs regularly and are around coins at shows or exposed to many coins and grading events that can dependably predict what the services will award. Two different things. Maybe that’s a dealer, doesn’t have to be, but I would bet most of these people are dealers.
Not sure about the percentages as asked for by the OP. I do however know that poster rampop has had 100% of his threads closed. Pretty dang impressive if you ask me
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I think I'll agree with you and the 1%. A trained monkey can pick out a top end coin for the grade on the label. My apologies to CAC. Besides, a coin's actual condition of preservation often has little to do with its commercial grade! Therefore, taking the obvious individuals out who are the best graders based on past performance, I'll say that anyone who can make a good living buying coins and selling them raw, upgrades, crack-outs, and detailed is a good grader.
I wrote to him earlier with a suggestion since one of mine was also closed. Think "thin ice."
If we're talking on being able to grade to TPG grader repeatability (ie 75-85%) then it's probably under 1% for collectors. Even for the very best collectors on this forum it might at best be 5%. If you don't do the gig full time for a decade or more it's tough to get there. And even with time, there are some skills that are instinctive and can't be taught. Some can never get there. I know some very successful 30 yr dealers who were in the market every day, buying tens of millions of dollars per year...and could only grade to about 30% accuracy of a TPG grader. They would usually only buy raw coins from other dealers after they came back from grading.
The best collectors can get up into the 50-65% range. Very few (like Stewart Blay) get any higher unless they have basically become vest-pocket or full time dealers themselves. Getting one area of coinage to that level is still quite an achievement. Getting a dozen or dozens of areas (ie all type coins) is quite another.
Some of the dealers I recall from the 1980's who were at the top level: Albanese, Akers, Halperin, Jay Miller, Salzburg, JD, Rick Sear, Bill Nagle, Sil, Kevin Lipton, The Avenas, Martin Paul, Marc Emory, Warren Mills, Charlie Brown, Eric Streiner, Bruce Kutcher, Bill Shamhart, HRH, Lee Bellisario, Dave Carr, the guys at NGE, Larry Whitlow, etc. A lot of ex-NERCG guys on that list. I know of VERY few classic coin collectors I'd put into that same camp....even in their specialty. Most of these dealers were buying raw coins at auctions and in deals... and making solid money slabbing them. Of all the top seated collectors I knew back then, not sure any could rise to that level. I haven't kept current at the under age 50 crowd other than maybe Ryan Carrol, Jason Carter, and Brian Yutzy. It's one thing to evaluate a coin in a TPG holder and determine if you like it for the grade (or -1 or +1)....and can arbitrage it for money....as you have the holder and/or eye appeal to fall back on. It's a lot different seeing it raw and then placing a grade on it. That's how you really grade. Kam Ahwash, Bruce Dubin and Jim O'Donnell were examples of highly successful coin dealers who had trouble grading choice and gem unc coins....at least by TPG standards. And both Bruce and Jim would routinely state as much. But, they knew how to recognize value and sell coins.
So what's the point? Back in the day there were approx 10,000 dealers listed across the country. Out of those at most 1-3% graded to the TPG level of 75-85% consistency....from under 100 to at most 300. Really good graders were in that top 10% or 1,000. They could make a living grading and trading raw coins. The advent of slabs brought the entire 10,000 into the fold of being able to make money and not even being a decent or competent grader that can split the hairs consistently in most series. The % of collectors is probably similar....at most 5%. When I was scouring my state in the 1980's there were around 30-50 coins shops. I can't recall more than a couple that could grade at the level to compete at national shows and auctions.
Different era today. You don't need to be able to grade coins really well to make a lot of money at it....but it sure helps.
What???!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"It is naught, it is naught, saith the buyer: but when he is gone his way, then he boasteth."
Serious active collectors and dealers probably had reasonable ability to grade, probably a third or so are accurate.