Good ol debate... graded cards vs wax?
VintagemanEd
Posts: 932 ✭✭✭
Let’s talk about buying graded versus bbce wax strictly for investment purposes. Let’s say 5 years from now. I have sold quite a bit over the last month or so and have had some great people buy from me on the boards. So I have some cash building up and was thinking about going after a Jordan psa 10 but it seems like wax just keeps going up so I would be fine with dumping the funds into more wax. It seems we have all been conditioned that graded hofers is the way to go but is it? I have a good mix of graded and wax now so the go after what you love does not apply with me because I love both sides! Discussion anyone?
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Good topic. Personally, I cant see the price run-up in unopened continue at such a pace. The P/L on ripping and getting the 1. Right cards, in the 2. Right condition and 3. PSA agreeing on said condition, is not a great bet. Holding the unopened to flip one day, may be a better bet, but I believe this is set / supply of key card specific. For example, we can all agree a 52T box may always increase astronomically, but will a 75 Mini box, or a 79 OPC box? Can you see (1) 70T pack going from ~$1000 to ~$2,500, even in 10 years? I am not convinced. I am betting on the HOFers in PSA 9's.
I am a big fan of wax/ cellos, especially with my favorite players showing. The scarcity and mystery of what could be and how they remain unopened is appealing to me.
Pretty much where all of my fun money is going now.
Looking forward to others responses.
PC Walter Payton - Bear Down!
I think if group breaks continue to happen it'll drive up demand for unopened while also reducing supply. I don't have the numbers but that could be fueling the current price increases and then it's a matter if this will continue to happen or not!
i have never lost money buying unopened wax and boxes in general. i broke even on a few but never lost.
however I will probably sell off my boxes before I sell my PSA collection. i enjoy the cards more.
Ok let’s compare a 68 Ryan psa 7 and a 1979 Topps baseball wax box bbce. Which one has the bigger increase by percentage over the 5 years? Is it the wax because the Ryan is a psa 7? If the Ryan is a psa 8 is it then the Ryan over the wax?
Just checked eBay sales.
It appears - recently - that prices are starting to climb on 79T wax.
Other than that? I have no idea.
Just checked the auction prices for a PSA 7 Ryan: from 05 to 15 it started to jump from around 500 to 800 and then in 16 anywhere from 1000 to 1600 - appears that it dropped a bit in 17 and now in 19? We're in the 1100+ range?
The wax just may be showing a bit more promise?
That was a quick check - I'm sure we have some people here who "do" invest who will have a way more cogent rationale.
On this question...yes, easily. In a matter of months, this has gone from a $400 pack to a $1k pack. I think we are just at the beginning stages of the "ripping" craze. There are only a couple places out there, that I know of, that rip older packs. With the profit to be made selling spots, I'm sure there will be some other people starting to do this as well. Now, how long it lasts, I don't know. But what I do know is that the crumbs that are left over after the feeding frenzy will be few and far between. Even some prominent unopened collectors have mentioned on this board and others that the prices being realized for some of this stuff is getting too hard to pass up. In 5 to 10 years, there will be the same number or more of whatever HOFer in PSA 9 but there will be less unopened than there is right now.
Vintage Breaks sold off 53 spots of a 71 Topps cello a couple months back and they just sold out another that they will be ripping tonight. That's people paying $250 for a single card that in all likelihood is going to be worth no more than $10!
I am NOT someone who buys to invest but I do track card values and markets of all kinds.
I think the best bet is the biggest star(s) in the highest grade in popularly collected ‘vintage’ sets. I use quotes because I’m going to be using the definition a little loosely.
T206
33 Goudey
52T
To me those are the big 3 in baseball. Argue over it in another thread who is 4, 5, 6 (or even 1, 2, 3, I guess) but I would actually say ‘86 Fleer Basketball is sort of the younger generations version of a vintage set for basketball that is well collected in many forms - player sets, company sets and it’s seeing increasing prices and demand over time.
In any type investing, there are inherent risks of course but also practical, tried and true strategies too. There’s money to be made running with the herd but you could get trampled, too. There’s also the old boring blue chip route and there’s money to be made there too.
There will always be fads and right now unopened is just that - the latest fad. I don’t mean that money will be lost by those who choose to invest, mind you, just that like all fads it has seen a meteoric rise in prices and it will come to an end one way or another - price itself out, supply runs out, scandals, forgeries and re-seals ruin consumer confidence or some other new card related fad comes along. Company sets, player sets, Super sets, unopened - the hobby cycles through them and recycles them, too. Though what every single person in on unopened is after is what happened at the National - pull THE star in Mint condition. If you have the opportunity to buy one rather than play the lotto? I’d go that route - no matter which of the fads is en vouge, the mint card trumps all.
My advice? Beware the herd and play in safe spaces.
Go get your PSA 10 Jordan.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
The unopened isn't the fad, it's the ripping the unopened that is the current fad. Comparing is really apples to oranges. I mean, one could say that the 52 Topps pack has well outperformed the 86 Fleer Jordan. Honestly, the Jordan in a 10, other than some PWCC auctions has been pretty flat at about $20k for what, about 3 years now? I also remember when they were bringing $40k+ years ago when there were very few of them and Don West was hocking them as the next 52 Mantle. Then you could pick them up under $10k. Again, there are always going to be as many, if not more of certain graded cards. Just isn't going to be as much unopened vintage.
Now, I will agree that you can't go wrong with and of the sets above....T206, 33 Goudey and 52 Topps...for the most part.
I quick story to age myself. I remember as a 9-10 year old and of course, even then, the 52T Mantle was the star. Late 70's early 1980 the prices came down....book was about $3500 usually for whatever grade it was they listed...probably nm but they were fetching about $1500. Anyhow, the market was a bit soft, my dad took me to my first big card show in Chicago. There was one at a table that was mid grade, if memory serves me correct. Guy wanted $700 and I begged my dad to get it. Needless to say, that was a lot of money back then and he wasn't into cards at the time. We passed and I wonder to this day where that card is, lol.
Strictly from an investment standpoint, I would vote unopened for ROI. There will be outliers on both sides, so you can surely pick a single graded card that will explode and beat the return on wax. However, I believe that all things being even that wax is the safer option and has the higher ceiling in most cases. IMO, the unopened product with the highest upside is not found in vintage though.
Depends on what you consider "vintage"!!
Haha, "vintage" is in the eye of the beholder. For my purposes, I was describing pre 80's wax.
I agree . After watching the Jordan insert craze drive up late 1990's Skybox BKB boxes a few years ago, I went big in 2000 FB and Topps Chrome 2001-2005.
From a football point of view, I do like 2016-2018 Donruss Optic for hoarding, however it is hard to find them for a decent price.
If you are talking about the increase of an iconic RC vs. unopened from the same set and year, then unopened will have the better return. Meaning an 86/87 Fleer wax box will outpace a Jordan PSA 10 in % increase. This is simply due to the fact that there will always be more singles as packs get opened, but the supply of unopened will never increase. People seem to always pay for the elusive chance of “what if” with unopened.
Unopened, all day, every day.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I can give Tim a little backing here...
Back around 1993, a full box of 76OPC was in the $600 range or so - I picked up a box from the BBCKid in 1993 or 4 - I'm hoping to find a box full of invoices down the road to back up my memory.
This box is now in the 5K range I believe. Tim can back me up on this?
edit: and the packs are pristine IMO.
88 Fleer Basketball is another interesting year, with all of the RC's and the Jordan. I will be curious to see where both graded cards and unopened go. There are 3 or 4 cards in that set that easily command a minimum of $300 in PSA 10. I can't see that continuing long term.
Working on the following sets
1980's and 1990's Topps Baseball BBCE FASC - Cello or Wax Boxes
1952 Bowman US Presidents PSA 7 & up
Pro Football Hall of Fame Indianapolis Colts PSA Registry Set
June 9th Cubs full ticket or stubs - 1981 to 2020
Andre Dawson Topps Basic registry PSA 10's
Mark Grace Topps Basic registry PSA 10's
Beautiful box, Mike! Yes, I'd say 6K is right in the ballpark for that box.
Tonight a common 1976 rack sold for $533 on ebay. Prices just continue rise at a very rapid rate for any vintage unopened product.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I only collect single graded cards but there is no question that unopened will win hands down in most cases. As it's been stated here before, there is a finite number of unopened to be had and only decrease in numbers.
Graded can really only go up in numbers. Plus there is the added "lottery" aspect of hitting a card for 1/10 the price in 1 pack. The "what if" factor.
Interesting stuff. Perhaps I should pick up a little more of the unopened stuff.
Great discussion. Of those holding, is it all investment? Just like having unopened to display? Intent to open at a future date?
Clearly there is not much of a debate here - unopened carries the day here...
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Had no idea this stuff was taking off again Tim?
My best run is with OPC - '76-79 - was not planned - '78-79 were spur of the moment "national" pickups.
So let’s take a strong vintage card like a Clemente rc in the same type of price range as the $6,000 1976 OPC box. That woud be a let’s say a nice psa 6.5 Clemente rc...... so we are thinking the 76 box will outpace the Clemente in 5 years?
Personally I collect unopened for a couple of different reasons:
1. Nostalgia- It gives me great joy to see the boxes and packs that I either opened as a kid or lusted after as a kid when I was on a tight allowance budget and couldn't afford whole boxes. Buying those things now, that I couldn't afford then (or that I could afford but now simply want to relive my childhood) gives me a very simple joy. I keep a handy supply of my favorite years available to open from time to time just to remind me of my childhood and happy memories collecting cards with my dad, brothers, and friends. I am sure that much of my unopened will remain unopened, but there is some of it that I will open (or that I will let my kids open) because it is just fun.
2. Fun to display- At their most basic, boxes and packs were marketing tools designed to encourage parents and children to buy sports cards. So for the most part, their graphics are fascinating little time capsules of our world decades ago. They still display well, and are fun to look at. I have a number of boxes and packs at my office, and they are without question the first thing that visitors comment on when they walk in. I even have a box of 1986 Topps baseball that I hand out packs from to visitors who seem to have a real connection with them.
3. Investment- this is the least important reason I collect unopened, but I am not unaware of the money I put into unopened versus the likely return. I have yet to lose money on unopened. I bought a box of 1975 mini wax at 800 a box. Bought my 1978 Topps baseball at 400 a box. Even the things I am buying now have started to creep up, whether it is 1981 baseball or 1984 baseball. All of it is increasing slightly, and much of it outpaces the stock market. Granted there will be the perpetual boom and bust cycle, but shy of an absolute market collapse (or national economic collapse) I believe there will always be people with disposable incomes looking to recapture their childhood. As others have pointed out, there is a daily diminishing supply of unopened product. That reality is visible in the transition of how unopened is available for sale. 20 years ago you could get a case of 1975 minis or 1978 Topps baseball wax. When was the last time you saw more than one? Even for mid-80's product, using ebay (or even BBCE) as a barometer, it is rare to see an intact wax or cello case from pre-1986 more than once a month or so. There is a steady transition from intact cases being readily available to intact boxes being readily available to sealed individual packs being readily available. For anything pre-1986, watch that trend. It has happened with 1970's unopened product, and is now starting to happen with early 1980's.
At the end of the day, though, it is just a hobby. And it is just fun money, not my life savings or my retirement. With that perspective, it is much easier to just sit back, buy what makes me happy, and to enjoy baseball cards like I did 40 years ago. (and to enjoy many of those same cards that I did 40 years ago too!)
kevin
I just wish I had focused in on those cards back when I could've gotten a nice card and afforded it better.
I believe his cards had a "pop" a few years ago when there were reports of an 8 going for 90K - I definitely know of 1 that sold for that and the buyer reneged.
A 6.5 was in that surge and came back to earth around 5K.
Beyond that? Can't say.
While I fully enjoy talking with you about this stuff, I'm not a speculator and can't with any authority posit what will happen pertaining to this card.
Tulsaboy that was well said. I agree 1000%. I think the fact that we are drawn to the colors and artwork of the packaging of cards is overlooked sometimes. I always tell my wife that a box of 73 football or 85 baseball is like a piece of art. Just like someone would stare at a fine painting I love to stare at those.
Thanks Tulsaboy/Kevin. I agree with your post. Well said.
grab all the legit unopened you can afford 1985 and earlier as a general cutoff. That line isn't so straight in reality though. After watching available late 70's dry up like the last watering hole in the Sahara it's only a matter of time (a few years? who knows) before early 80's stuff becomes tougher to find. Already happening with 1980 Topps. I'm talking strictly baseball of course as I don't collect anything else.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Buy a full box of anything pre 1969 from any sport or any brand.
Pre 1969?
lol buy a PACK of any sport
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I was thinking some of the boxes from HA the other month.
1960-62 Fleer Baseball were like 12kish and they also had football go for like 15kish I think.
They also have 68-69 FB boxes and a tempting 1966 Philly box with awesome HOF rookies possible. Jim brown goes for 12k in a 9! Ditka 8.5 went for like 6k. 1959 Fleer Ted boxes are like 20k. 8card box went for 30kish and it doesnt have gum!! So no stress for juicing or decaying. I thought the prices were a good buy.
This-----
and this---
and this---
and these---
all day--every day and twice on Sundays
It could end up being counterproductive to be marketing and showing live rips like all the companies are doing now.
What if people get desensitized from seeing the sub par rips that it becomes another fad.
Or it could just fuel the addiction and continue in its upswing.
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
great stuff as always manny hope all is well...i would say it will be wax over graded with the rips and at the rate packs are being opened there is less and less of this out there every day...just think about going to a show to find lets say a 1976 nolan ryan psa 9 and see how many 1976 boxes you can find..my point is you can go to a show and find psa graded cards much easier than the unopened product...my vote is for unopened all day and to me its not even that close...just my take terry
Unopened. Easiest for me to think of it this way. New singles show up daily, but unopened cant be put back together.
1992 Collectors Edge Football case?
Hiya Manny
Sweet!
I'm really partial to the 69T pack.
Are those rings in the background?
Jeff alluded to the attraction to unopened boxes, e.g., because of the "graphics."
That underscores the entire reason I got involved in Baseball Board Games.
The flagship of my collection is Major League "indoor" Baseball Game.
The photography (Horner) is the same that one would see in the T206 set - featuring Honus Wagner e.g.
Of the 16 portraits - 11 are in the HOF!
I can't overemphasize, IMO, the role of graphics in ones decision to collect something/anything.