Absolute rarity and CAC question
redmoon
Posts: 15 ✭
I know that CAC topics are usually debated heavily, but as a collector I want to understand the following:
Take a rare issue, say a $1 or $3 gold proof piece maybe with less than 100 in mintage. Let's assume PCGS has graded only 1 or 2 top grades in PR66 DC and several in PR65 DC. If CAC only beaned the PR65 DC in record and we assume the higher grades have all been to CAC but none received sticker, how would you make your purchase decision if both the 65 and the 66 are being offered in market?
I'm asking because I thought PCGS graders are likely very careful in assigning a top grade to an absolute rarity (as 1 point in grade differential will result in huge amount of price difference). But then you see 30% premium on the PR65 CAC vs the PR66 and you get very confused. Why don't the seller of that PR66 DC coin crack out the coin repeatedly to get a downgrade to say PR65 and then get it beaned?
Comments
In addition to the grades and stickers which you mentioned, I would look at the coins.
In your scenario, people have down graded coins. @tradedollarnut has mentioned this in the past.
If both are fantastic looking coins, isn't even the lowest end of PR66 better than the highest end of PR65?
"...we assume that the higher grades have all been to CAC.....
Not always a good assumption. PCGS has graded WAY more coins than CAC..... 40 million vs 1 million (not sure.... someone help me here).
When dealing in anything that is thinly traded (almost all top pops in all series) guidebook values break down quickly. The coins are individual and distinct entities that have their own merits and qualities. Any coin can be strong for grade or weak for grade. The TPG have given their opinion, but the opinion of the guy putting money down to acquire the coin is perhaps equally (or more) important.
Finally, sometimes people do get coins downgraded and in a CAC holder. Sometimes it makes financial sense to do it. It just depends on circumstance.
Thanks - I know several cases in reality (the 66 didn't sticker), and I think for absolute rarity expensive coins most dealers probably already tried
You hold them both in front of you and pick the one you like better.
Welcome!
Good question. There could be multiple reasons why it didn't sticker: 1) CAC though it was messed with or 2) CAC thinks it's not a 66 "A or B" coin. Eye appeal could play a big factor as well.
As far as a downgrade, it could be a registry play to keep the higher grade/top pop.
No easy answers here. Enjoy the hunt!
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase/2819
You are also making the assumption that the coin will be CAC approved at the lower grade which is not automatically true. So you could very easily end up with a downgraded coin and still no sticker which could be a substantial financial loss, the risks at the deep end are extreme.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Serious question. Doesn't anyone collect coins just for the pleasure of collecting the coins any more?
The answer I get from reading the many threads like this one, on this forum, is the answer is no. It is not about the pure joy of just enjoying the coins. On this forum it seems to be all about the money.
This post made me sad, because I agree.
@coinhack
Yes! Most of them don't frequent the PCGS forum. People here are often dealers, quasi-dealers, or otherwise associated with the industry side of numismatics. For them, it's obviously all about the money, all of the time. That's how they pay the bills and feed the kids.
Beyond that, many people here are what you might call serious collectors. The definition of that is "If the wife finds out how much I spend on coins, I'll be in SERIOUS trouble." While it usually is, and should be about the coins, the finances required to acquire these little treasures is sometimes quite significant, and can't be ignored. Most people just want some assurance that they'll be able to get some (or all, or more) of the money back out again someday. Some collectors also get caught up in the speculation part of the game which is a bit like pulling the slot machine lever every time you send a submission in for grading.
Big score = dopamine in the brain = positive reward = continued similar behavior.
Do an Internet search on the Greater Fool Theory and you'll understand a bit of the psychology that goes into all of this.
If one wants to spend 5 figure or more without doing due diligence, I would think that is crazy. nothing wrong for coin collecting to be both a fun hobby and a significant investment. There are many who spend too much, realize they shouldn’t very late, and left.
Based on your stated assumptions, let's clarify what it means. CAC determined the 65 was strong for 65, and they decided the 66 was accurately graded (or not). Since there is no way to know the 'or not' part, you need to decide if you trust the TPG and grade assigned.
I would make my decision by determining the coin I enjoy looking at the most. Which coin has the most appeal to you? As we all know, a higher grade does not necessarily mean greater eye appeal to an individual buyer. Next, is the price on the coin you like the most reasonable to you?
Agreed, although often it’s difficult to compare if you can only rely on the photos available (even TrueView can be tricky to understand the grade due to different lighting used). I wonder how many people actually travel to see the coins, or perhaps it’s easier to get a dealer’s help on that.
For such a rarity cannot you just call CAC and ask if they viewed it in hand? I assume they keep notes. It might solve the problem straight away.
It is impossible to compare two coins in photographs, especially if shot by different people in different conditions. For big purchases, people often travel to see them on hand. Lot viewing at a big auction, meeting a dealer at a big show, or at the very least working with a deer who can describe the coin & provide a return privilege is important.
Your example is proof gold so I will base this answer on that. I would probably go with the PR 65 DCAM CAC since proof gold has a reputation of being messed with more than some other types of coins and I would prefer having the coin that JA has viewed and stickered. You could also ask the seller or auction house on the PR 66 whether it has been sent in to CAC (my guess is it has but you never know). This assumes I have viewed both coins and like them both.
Thanks and it’s a little bit surprising to me, I thought PCGS should be able to tell if the coin is messed with - otherwise it would be a huge financial mistake due to the guarantee? I know JA is one of the best but wouldn’t it be scary on high end coins when there is solid but maybe not top end 66 vs a tempered with 66?
Assumed "rarity" or "value" is unrelated to accurate coin authentication or grading - any connection, in my opinion, invalidates the grade.
A CAC sticker just says the issuer of the sticker would buy the coin - nothing else.
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I have had many dealers who know a lot about proof gold warn that you have to be especially careful with it. Many will say stick with PCGS over NGC. CAC is an extra layer of protection. Unless you yourself are very knowledgable about proof gold, I would stick with the PCGS CAC 65 over the PCGS PR 66. If you were an expert yourself, than I think you could make a decision based upon your own review of the two coins.
I am not sure why this thread would upset you. Its a fair question and no one is forcing anyone to read it. There are more threads on this forum about showing off a new coin, asking about a variety, guess the grade, show reports, etc than there are like the OP---so not sure why you think this forum is all about the money. The type of coin the OP is speaking about is a high priced coin and asking these type questions is a wise start. Finally, I see nothing in the OP that indicates that he or anyone else doesn't get joy from coins---just a curiosity about the impact on price of coins at different grade levels.
If it's a large auction house like Heritage you may be able to get an opinion from someone there who can look at it in hand. It will still be subjective though. I think of coins like wine in many respects....this bottle may taste great to me but to you..maybe not so great.
I understand your point, but I would absolutely ignore any stickers, and would just examine the coins. Makes things much simpler for me.
Dave
A CAC failure means that it didn't think (based on their opinion at that snapshot in time) that the coin was solid or high end for the grade. It doesn't mean that it is a problem coin or that it is overgraded. It may (or may not) be accurately graded. Coins like this often appear in major auctions and if you are unsure, you could hire an expert to lot view for you (normally no more than 2-3% of a winning bid). That way you don't artificially limit the supply of rare coins to choose from by plastic or sticker rarity.
I would pick the best coin for the money.
A 66 non-CAC might appeal more to a registry player. A 66 could fetch more than a 65 CAC although it is sometimes the other way around. The coin might be a 66 "C" coin and might not downgrade because it is accurately graded.
Remember that not everyone feels the need to send coins to CAC. So don't assume even the highest grades out there have been reviewed at CAC.
I know CAC fans constantly say CAC coins get more money, but it's pretty much a chicken/egg argument... nice coins for the grade can get better auction results with or without the stickers.
Many of us trust the professional graders we already paid when getting a coin graded. And there are many (I'd say the great majority) of collectors who don't know JA anymore than they know the folks who grade the coins at PCGS and NGC.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
100% wrong.
This is a great point. You risk that the coin could even go details, and then you are really screwed.
Downgrade doesn't mean crackout necessarily or at least I didn't interpret the OP's comments to suggest that.
Hi Gazes.
There is nothing in my comment that would imply that I was upset with the original post or the poster or anything else. So, why accuse me of being upset or being forced to read it? It seems more that my comment upset you. That's funny since the comment did not mention you and was not directed at you. It also did not mention nor was I referring to CAC which I believe may be what set you off.
My comment was about how many threads are purely about making money. Often without even a photo of a coin. What coins will flip for the most money? What grades, holders, stickers, labels, signatures are going to return the most money? You state that there are more threads about showing off a new coin, asking about varieties, guess the grade, show reports, etc. And you are correct. There are more of them. But a lot of those subjects also take a turn into making more money why my coins are better than yours and will certainly make more money.
The best reply to my comment was by a member whom I and most everyone else on the Forum respects was made by @BryceM , " Yes! Most of them don't frequent the PCGS forum. People here are often dealers, quasi-dealers, or otherwise associated with the industry side of numismatics. For them, it's obviously all about the money, all of the time. That's how they pay the bills and feed the kids."
Dead on.
And to the OP and anyone else. Best not to take offense where none was intended.
The fact that he said "crack out" in the OP can only be interpreted that way to me!
If I weren't confident in my ability to choose the best possible coin based upon the available information, I'd rather have the opinion of an acknowledged specialist in the given series than use stickers to guide me. It's a little old fashioned, I know...
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
coinhack---you said "there is nothing in my comment that Implied I was upset with the original post..." Reading your post I took it as a negative (see above)---if you didnt mean it that way then I'm glad---the OP set forth a valid area to discuss. thanks
You're absolutely right. I don't know how I missed that! With the regrade tier, I wouldn't crack any straight graded coin of value.
I was told it’s extremely unlikely PCGS downgrades during regrade so there must be people downgrade by cracking out so it can CAC, quite dangerous yet not unimaginable.
Nope.100% correct. Authentication and grade must always be disconnected from money. Absent that, the entire association is biased and cannot be trusted. Remember the old adage about the fox guarding the chicken house...
Gee...the best reply is the one that agrees with you. What a shock!
You don't have to be trying to make money to establish value. Let's say you would love to own an S-VDB cent. You've always wanted one and you've just come into some money. I've got a nice XF that you think is pretty and would like to own. I would like $5000 to sell it. Would you enjoy owning it at that price or would you consult a price guide? When you consult the price guide, do you ignore whether it is raw, holdered or CACed? As soon as you open the price guide, are YOU all about the MONEY?
If I ever decide to commit the kind of money it takes to buy nice proof gold, I will enlist the help of someone who really knows what to look for. I have $5,000 eyes, but not $50,000 eyes.
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<<< A CAC sticker just says the issuer of the sticker would buy the coin - nothing else. >>>
<<< I know CAC fans constantly say CAC coins get more money, but it's pretty much a chicken/egg argument... nice coins for the grade can get better auction results with or without the stickers. >>>
<<< I understand your point, but I would absolutely ignore any stickers, and would just examine the coins. Makes things much simpler for me. >>>
Common sense and free thinking have no place here, stop that!
Your hobby is supposed to be your therapy, not the reason you need it.
<<< The TPG have given their opinion, but the opinion of the guy putting money down to acquire the coin is perhaps equally (or more) important. >>>
Last I checked PCGS and NGC both back their grade opinions with a 100% cash backed guarantee which is far more substantial than someone putting decals on holders and then also making a market for and additional profit on the same coins he offered an opinion on for a fee. Come to think of it.........wasn't that why the FTC came down on David Hall and/or PCGS way back when, causing a big policy change that people who grade coins for a living cannot also commercially trade or make a market for such?
Your hobby is supposed to be your therapy, not the reason you need it.
I'll give CAC credit that they do usually make very fair offers (save for monster toners which there is no premium) and will buy it even if there is nothing wrong with the market grade per se but you discover that you are tired of a coin. TPG guarantees only cover errors when they admit that they made errors. TPG guarantees are hit or miss IMHO. Of course there is no CAC guarantee, but I have never heard a credible story of CAC refusing to make an offer. I dumped some gem/superb gem classic commemorative coins and other unexciting/less liquid items over the years and have never been refused.
@redmoon....Welcome aboard.... You certainly have opened a wide ranging discussion/opinion thread....Did you infer that you 'know' for sure the 66 had been to CAC? Or did I misinterpret your post? A lack of a sticker does not mean (as others have said) that it has been submitted and found lacking. Even so, a C coin at 66 is still a 66 - and remember, we are talking about 'opinions' here.... All decisions should be made on the coin itself. If the potential buyer is not skilled enough for such decisions, they should either seek help or save their money. Cheers, RickO
Thanks! I do know for sure, in 3 seperate cases, where the 66 had been to CAC. I open this discussion because I now see the 65 CAC being priced much higher than the 66. Generally I would think the 66 may be overgraded but in cases of absolute rarity PCGS is (and should be) careful in giving out top grades like that (market price is vastly different by a grade point and graders are informed and influenced). So yes we're probably looking at 66B/C vs 65A/B - if both coins are appealing with no doctoring and even without registry effect I think the pricing should favor the 66. But again it's easy to generalize given a small sample size and miss the finer details.
I did learn a lot from the discussions, very thankful for all the suggestions and comments.
@redmoon ... I do take exception to one part of your comment....I do not think that market pricing should affect the grade given by the TPG at all.... The grade is representative of the coin.... if it warrants a 66, it should get a 66. No consideration of any other factors should enter into the decision. Great topic and thanks for posting. Cheers, RickO
There are 2 issues here.
Not all certified coins have been to CAC raririty or not. A very small percentage.
I would to need to know denom / date/ mm to effectively analyze any CAC premium. The idea a CAC PR 65 priced more than a non CAC 66 seems absurd and I question if the CAC piece grossly over priced with the usual seller hype. A review of the bids in the sheet would reveal the true picture. If owner of the PR66 no I will not take a downgrade to get a bean especially if I agree with the TPG grade which trumps beans and the 65 CAC seller hype. My opinions are my own and not driven by individuals running a sticker service or multi million dollar coin sales enterprise.
I would advise you to look at the Coins in person and select the one which is the best deal to fill the hole assuming you like the coin. However - If CDN bid for a PR66 issue $1000 non CAC and CPG 1300 and the CAC bid for the lesser grade PR65 coin say $800, that coin sb around $1050 otherwise I would suspect it’s overpriced. Of course the seller of the CAC coin will hit u with the emotional buy the best sales pitch. This is a common tactic in auto sales. But the fact is theirs is not the best at least in terms of the TPG grade on the Holder! Additionally, you should find out CPG on both coins (free from CDN website) to really get the analysis of this deal u need. If not available for this issue would expand scope of research. If you can’t decide for yourself where either coin falls in the grade range and is fairly priced or not I would strongly recommend against this purchase and shift your investment to an area more easy to analyze. Furthermore how much more is the lesser grade CAC coin? How many (as an example) slabbed AGE / AGB MS69 or Slabbed Generic Double Eagles in MS63-MS65 would that purchase? Get the picture?
I don't think this is accurate when talking about better coins. JA has said that CAC has seen 80%-90% of the better coins that have been in the marketplace for the last 23 years. The OP talks about proof gold which certainly falls into that category. My hunch is given JA's comments, if it is gem proof gold, you should assume that it has been sent to CAC.
In general, I will agree with you FOR WIDGETS. It is only logical that a 65 A/B should be worth less than a 66C. BUT BUT BUT, that assumes the grades are accurate. Statistics don't apply to a single coin. In this case, suppose the 65 CAC could actually upgrade to 66B while the 66C should really be a 65A?
Also remember that grades aren’t absolute. It’s possible that if 100 experts examined each coin that the majority of them would prefer the 65 coin over the 66 coin. It happens all the time. Experts know when to ignore the price guides and when to stick their necks out. Crack both of these coins and resubmit them and the grades could swap. Of course they could remain the same, get a no grade, go up three grades, or any number of other things. Statistically, the most likely thing is that there wouldn’t be much change.
The grade is a place to start. It’s important to realize it’s an expert opinion, but likely not a unanimous or universally accepted opinion.
As for the whole CAC debate, I’m done listening. It’s tiresome. I know what it means to me and, no offense, I don’t really care what it means to anyone else. Somehow it seems very important to others that I see it their way. Tant pis!
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Common sense should be able to sense a trend.
Define ‘better’. There are numerous instances where the higher coin is neutral for eye appeal but the undergrade is a wow eye appeal coin with an extra tick or line