How do you estimate the ‘real pop’ for a card?

1951WheatiesPremium

Just curious how folks come up with a guess for a card’s population of graded AND raw cards for older cards where there’s not always hard data for print runs.

For example, you can obviously do

PSA+SGC+BVG* = Approximate Toal Graded**

But then how do you feel that reflects in the TOTAL population.

Just one of the random things I think about.

*plus any other company whom you respect)
**with the crossover of high dollar cards especially, you have to account for the ‘dead certs’ somehow

JoeBanzai

I just use the PSA pop report. Is it wrong? Probably, but it gives me an idea of what's out there.

Lucky for me, I only really focus one one guy who played 1955-75, so most of the graded cards will be PSA.

Overall population is another matter, I go with knowledge from other collectors and a little common sense (since I only have a little ;-)).

I remember, for example when everyone was excited about 1971's and a dealer I knew scoffed and said 1962's are way tougher in nm-mt and better. NO ONE would have agreed with him at that time.

I happened to be looking for a mint 1962 AL HR Leaders card at a "National". All I could find was a raw one that did grade an 8. Been looking ever since (25 years) and unable to find a better one. Have seen a few that are astronomically priced.

9's in 1971's tough too.

kerryville

I figure them up as a total and take away 10 to 15 percent for crossover. Always rounding up.