MS-65 $10 Indians?
blackhorse360
Posts: 298 ✭✭✭
Ok so I have this hang up for Double Eagles and $10 Indians. I absolutely love these coins and have been very blessed to assemble an Amazing collection of each over many years. I remember when common date $10 Indians in MS-65 were $5,000.00+ however now if you can find them common date “1926 and 1932” are going for around $2300.00 to $2500.00. So my question is with the market being where it is do you guys feel that there is some real future potential upside on this specific coin in this specific grade? PCGS and NGC of course.
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As long as you purchase these coins with no loss of surface frost on their high points (for whatever the reason given) graded MS-65, you should do OK in the future. That said, who knows what the future will bring.
Are today’s 65 yesterday’s 64 or lower?
Also, be sure to PCGS CAC as that can be a 50% premium these days.
You are correct. In fact I have a professional that approves these coins at 65 before I buy them. One thing I have noticed is that it seems that CAC is Extremely hard on $10 Indians even more so then other Gold coins.
you are correct
If you are looking at them from an investment standpoint you are likely to be disappointed ... unless you are one of the board members who believes there are thousands and thousands of young people with money trolling the internet looking for expensive coins to buy. So far as grading goes, I have never been a fan of TPG grading of gold coins. I have always considered them to be too liberal versus my own standards.
Ditto, but of course gold is a soft coinage metal...
I don't believe that.
At the last FUN show I found a dealer offering MS66 common date CAC Saints for $4200, he agreed to come down to $4000. Hilarious....I told him 100% markup for CAC was a bit high for me when they can be bought all day long for $2000. I don't believe anyone in their right mind would pay double for a CAC coin (and I support CAC).
Legend just posted that one of their customers did, though this person is now asking for a refund. This collector paid $147,500.00 for a coin where a non-CAC sold for $105,000.00.
They also mention 1904 PCGS CAC MS66 double eagles where non-CAC is $5,250.00 and their wholesale sight unseen bid is $11,250.00 for CAC.
I shifted gears quickly from your reference point (50%) to my closest relatable example (100%/double) from the last FUN show. Other than this one dealer listing more than double, and I looked at literally dozes of 66 Saints at many tables, no one else was offering silly prices, including 50% markup, for common date 66 CAC Saints.
Calling @specialist. She can help here as it seems like her customers routinely pay large premiums for PCGS CAC.
@matt_dac While it may seem like there is a double market up on CAC coins, that is just not the case. While I agree that paying double for a sticker is a bit excessive, there are published bids at $3550. $4000 is only a ~15% markup which is reasonable. Sure someone with a keen eye can double up on buying a coin then getting it stickered, the person paying $4000 is not going to lose half his/her purchase price.
As far as high grade generic gold a few things have happened to bring the price down. Some of them are good, some are bad and some are ugly. The good news is that large quantities of generic gold was being sold by telemarketers to unsuspecting buyers at huge prices. Several of the worst offenders have either been put out of business or pressured into charging more reasonable prices. Sure they may not be "cheap" but they are not 100% markups. This has weakened demand. The second thing that has happened is general demand is down. People are buying less coins. Third, many of the marketers have moved away from selling classic coins to modern widgets. Buy a monster box at $20, get them graded for $10, break even on the 69s and double up on the 70s. Same goes for modern commems. Fourth loads and loads of coins are coming in from Europe overwhelming demand. Lastly, the grading on generics has been "cyclical". There are other factors that I really won't get into.
From work-in-progress research on Saint-Gaudens $10, there appears to be limited upward value except for truly excellent quality coins. Buyers of quality pieces are rarely stuck on labels, holders, stickers, or other do-dads.
There are many interesting varieties (including doubled dies) in this series, but lower mintages dictate the number of varieties are proportionate to Double Eagles.
I've heard that "modern" issues have replaced vintage coins at one and probably three TPGS. At one, the carts full of this crap are overflowing into the hallways! Pays the bills.
I agree with many of your points. I'm I saying I don't believe dealers are able to sell CAC coins for 50%+ over non CAC examples based on real selling prices. At least not to any measure of an informed collector. I am not referring to stunning CAC examples and same grade but junk non-CAC examples of course. In the case of my hunt for an MS66 Saint last month at FUN, I did not see evidence of this kind of markup other than that one dealer. I should have noted he was not the only dealer selling common date MS66 CAC Saints but the only one asking $4200 for them. I think a 15% markup is reasonable for CAC, $2300 for CAC MS66 common date Saints based on the real selling prices (widely available at $2000) for nice looking non-CAC 66 Saints. I had settled on the coin I wanted (MS66 non-CAC) until I came across an MS65+ CAC that I thought was stunning and had to have it.
I also agree there are tons of MS gold coins that look like junk in terms of eye appeal. I had a really hard time finding a gold Indian eagle as a type for example because A LOT of MS graded coins were just junk to my eyes. I came across an AU58 that really spoke to me (I submitted to CAC after I purchased and it beaned).
I've seen several MS66 Saints that did not look 66 to me... I can imagine that's why so few are stickered and demand a lot more money...
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Aside from the cac nonsense that seems to rear its nauseating head in many threads, my take is that the pops for common date saints and $10.00 Indians are so high that i believe their only real investment potential going forward would be a substantial move up in precious metals prices.
Your hobby is supposed to be your therapy, not the reason you need it.
Beware combining your "hang ups" collecting inclinations with investment strategies. Seems to me that your downside is more limited with gold versus other numismatic options.
I agree. I don’t buy $10 Indians only because of the investment possibility’s but along with the double eagles I just love that coin. All of mine that are graded are MS-65 and I have a pretty significant amount that are raw that I haven’t sent in yet. Anyway it’s good to have upside in the coins you love to collect anyway
It happens. Look at the 1926 MS 66 coins in Coin Facts. There are PCGS non-CAC coins in the $5k-$7.5k range. The last two CAC coins fetched $22k each.
It depends. For later dates and common dates, European hoards are a major threat.
Serious question. With all the guys bringing back gold from Europe over the last forty years, perhaps you could tell us where/who has all these hoards that are overhanging the market. Thanks in advance.
15% to 20% more for CAC in my humble opinion .
I don't have names and addresses if that's what you're asking for. Occasionally the topic comes up in articles for Numismatic News and Coin World. There are also a few threads here on the topic. European banks in particular were well known for hiding stockpiles of both U.S. and foreign gold coins.
It depends on the quality of the coin. Some coins may be very well be deserving of larger premiums. Sometimes green stickered CAC coins do upgrade and resticker at higher grades. It happens more than you think, but like everything else in this hobby, it should be decided on a coin by coin basis. Admittedly Saints, Lib Double Eagles/Eagles, and Indian Eagles have been hit hard by grade inflation and many of the CAC coins are deserving of healthy premiums.
OK guys and gals,
I came to this thread hoping to see a bunch of beautiful Indians. Not one photo. Not one!
Here you go! Here’s one of my 1926’s
Concerning European gold hoards, @cameonut2011 said: "I don't have names and addresses if that's what you're asking for. Occasionally the topic comes up in articles for Numismatic News and Coin World. There are also a few threads here on the topic.
European banks in particular W E R E well known for hiding stockpiles of both U.S. and foreign gold coins."
I can think of several folks who traveled back and forth either as agents or for their own company buying gold from European banks. My present boss is one of them! AFAIK, most of this stuff has dried up.
Are you quoting/reading stuff from the 1980's? Please stop posting "forth-hand crap" that YOU PERSONALLY have no specific experience about. As I asked a serious question, does ANYONE reading this have specific knowledge of a bank hoarding (NOT FOR SALE OR VIEWING) U.S. vintage gold coins.
I shall ask a gold dealer what he thinks about these (?) hoards tomorrow.
BTW I already know lots of countries are stocking up on gold.
No. I'm not relying on stuff from 30 years ago, but recollection of reliable materials from the last few years. If we cannot discuss reference materials and are constrained to personal accounts and primary sources in our posts, then we might as well shut the forums down now. I'm not writing an academic journal article. You asked a question I interpreted to be targeted to me, and I responded. My comment was accurate. The prospect of new hoards coming from Europe is a potential threat.
Here is a relatively recent hoard from Monaco from the last couple of years. I do not claim to know the source of the coins. The point remains that hoards are real threat to this segment of the market.
Recent research indicates that only small quantities of US gold coins remain in Europe. See the data and analysis in Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles (Heritage Auctions, Ive Press LLC)
Thank you!
I agree but with $10 Indians being as condition sensitive as they are what do you think the odds are of getting enough MS-65’s or 66’s that would affect the market out of these hoards? I realize you don’t have a crystal ball but I’m just wondering what your opinion is Thanks
https://coins.ha.com/itm/books/the-coinage-of-augustus-saint-gaudens-as-illustrated-by-the-m/i/960001281.s?type=surl-morse
I have no idea. I would defer to @RogerB and others. My comments were general and in response to another poster. I wouldn't consider gold a safer area of numismatic than others because of the prospect that future hoards may come forward.
For sure something to consider!
Here’s mine.
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Very Nice! Thanks for Sharing!
For what it's worth, here are some better grade coins I have collected over the years.
This 1907 No Periods $10 gold is graded MS-62. I think that it's under graded by one or even two points. I bought this piece almost 20 years ago. The grading on this type is inconsistent because of less than sharp strikes and muted luster.
This one is a PCGS MS-64, CAC. It has blazing luster with just enough marks to prevent it from making MS-65. The mark on the cheek is not as obvious when you see this in person.
This one is an NGC MS-66. Like it or not for the grade, it is a pleasing example for the type. Once more my photo makes some marks look bigger than when you see the coin in person.
Overall it's hard to find this type in high grade because there are a lot of smooth, open surfaces. Unlike $20 gold which has rays and design details that can hide marks, every little ping is obvious.
My type example in 64+ CAC.
Would like a gem example someday but it has to be the exact look I'm after with gold to justify the huge jump from my 64+.
I love that 66!
Gosh, I love all three!
As I suspected you are a very classy guy. Roger just refuted your opinion: "only small quantities of US gold coins remain in Europe." and you thanked him. If there are any hoards, they may be on other continents, just not Europe.
Bill,
That 1907 at the top does not look as original as the others. I think al the hairlines + the rub (common) limited to MS-62. I "looks" much higher.
Wowee those are some stunning examples.
This is my 1914-D AU58 CAC:
Wow! I love that one to! Keep the pictures coming!
Exactly. With common, late date eagles and double eagles, it needs to be a really beautiful coin that photographs well. Any marks, rubs, stains, or unevenness at all must not be singularly noticeable in a picture, if anything catches your eye in the trueview, it's probably not a Real MS65 or higher.
Those common coins that do qualify will probably appreciate from these prices as nice type coins if/ when bought well. Scarcer dates and types, I can forgive more surface action (i.e as lower graded coins & price, not being able to afford those issues as gem coins) but a common coin should be Special to to be worth putting away in my collection.
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Compare the 1907 and 1908 coins Bill posted. Notice the completely new hubs for 1908?
Also, Eagles were much more frequently sent to Central and South America as payments. There was only limited local gold coinage, which meant that a greater proportion of gold sent to these areas either remained in its original form, or was transshipped to Europe (mostly Britain) for infrastructure payment.
To generalize:
in Europe the economic situation caused US gold coins to be received and melted, or counted and re-counted (baggy, AU coins resulted).
In Central and South America the economic situation caused US gold coins to be received and retained, or shipped to Europe.
i think this is the granite lady hoard from san francisco.
Very nice examples, thank you all for sharing !!!
in Europe the economic situation caused US gold coins to be received and melted, or counted and re-counted (baggy, AU coins resulted).
This is why high grade $10 Indians are hard to find. The design was not one that stood up well to the "bag treatment." Marks are common and easier to see than on the other gold coin designs.
If I remember correctly, the 1907 No Periods $10 Indians were based on St. Gaudens assistent Henry Herring's work. The 1808 and later pieces were Charles Barber's interpretation. Barber knew how to make dies for coins that would be used in general curculation. St. Gaudens and most of his students didn't. The one exception was Aldolph Weinman.
I agree but how have we been getting such high grade examples out of Europe for the few decades. I do agree that most were “Bagged” resulting in AU coins but some were obviously put in safe keeping to maintain these higher grades. Am I correct on this?