2019 Reverse Proof Palladium to be MTO?
BackroadJunkie
Posts: 3,745 ✭✭✭✭✭
Did anyone else get the survey? (I scanned the 2018 thread and didn't see it...)
So, a Mint-To-Order with a one week window, at a price (today) of $1,850. The coin would go on sale in around 6 months, so the price would certainly move one way or another.
Should Pd continue to rise like it has, it will be a $2K coin.
2
Comments
That would be interesting. Would likely remove most flippers except those with deep pockets and a lot of faith
Nice move, not the mint's job to subsidize & is to make FAIRLY available these coins.....
Well, just Love coins, period.
The 3-month wait was a definite turn-off and made a comment to that effect... maybe 1-month.
Basically, I suspect, is what the Mint has done with the Apollo 5ozers as an experiment to see how many will wait for delivery.
Wonder how first strike/release will be handled by the TPGs.
The Apollo 5 oz coins are not an "experiment". They are different in that there is only one press that can strike the coins. They couldn't start them until January 1st and had a limited window to get them made before the release date. They also had a planchet availability issue.
The palladium coins are later in the year so they could be already striking them. They don't have the press limitation either.
It's also worth noting that is not the first time they've used the "ordering window" strategy. Just last year with the armed forces medals they did the same thing.
Except the down side for the Mint is that they may end up selling fewer this way.
recycling 2 100 year old designs on one coin is truly marvelous.
How far past peak mint are we at this point?
This is a new approach and with a 6 month lag before the order window it will be very hard to judge what mintage orders will be over that full week. The Mint mint lost money 2017 and 2018 platinum bullion and 2017 palladium bullion coins and they may be worried about how expensive palladium blanks would cost them so want us to pay up early to reduce their cost of goods risk.
Palladium is up 60% in the last 6 months and they want to reduce their cost risk for blank purchases and don't want to have to deal with all the so-called multiple household order scrutiny and complaints from those who were not able to buy any last year. Their directive is to make coins available to everyone who wants them, not just fast ordering flippers.
I hope people and businesses don't overdue it and shoot the mintage orders up too high. Paying in advance, also helps the Mint's cash flow and scheduling around the ATB 5 ounce coins for the one press that can do them.
It seems the price we pay during that week 6 months from now will be locked in and the following 3 month market price risk is all ours. Since I believe palladium is overpriced way above real auto demand due to commodity future market speculators, currently a new record high again around $1,524 today, I am going to have to wait and see what the actual order price is in 6 months before deciding if I want to risk an order of more than one. Platinum is also making a move and is up $50 in 10 days from the low Feb 14th.
The new Mint director seems to be making some good moves IMO. If he can get a congress person to change the law to eliminate clad commemorative half dollars and make them in .999 silver that would be another plus.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I had forgotten about the Armed Forces coin/medal. I agree.
I do understand the issue of cutting cost and reducing the amount sent back for scrap but 3-months is a bit long. Maybe 1-month for mint-to-demand.
I think they want the orders and payment first, then they will get the reverse proof blanks ordered and fabricated during the 3 months, and then strike them. They are not buying palladium now for the reverse proofs, just the bullion which comes earlier in the year. They got burned buying platinum blanks early last year at $1,000 and sold to dealers at a loss when the price dropped steadily to $800 last year. See the attached Mint report ending Sept 2018.
https://www.usmint.gov/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/2018-Annual-Report-ADA.pdf
Edited to add https://www.congress.gov/111/plaws/publ303/PLAW-111publ303.pdf which #8 second page says they are not supposed to lose money on this, so they came up with a new plan, since they did lose money last time on bullion per the financial report.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
That is a beautiful coin..... both obverse and reverse.... I will not be ordering one (but gratefully accept all gifts
)....I like gold and silver mainly.....Cheers, RickO
The 2013 West Point Silver Eagle Set also had this similar approach (although those had a 4 week window). As others have mentioned, it’s a good approach for the mint to limit risk in terms of palladium spot volatility. However, it will scare a bunch of people off (especially flippers who don’t want to tie up money over that long of a stretch with that much risk). That will likely lead to lower sales than if the mint had just set a limit.
http://www.coinnews.net/2013/10/26/sales-revised-lower-for-2013-west-point-silver-eagle-set/
RickO, Sig 716, or a $2,000 palladium coin? LOL
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Nice one ricko I am with you! Second in line maybe wonder can help!
As a sidenote, for those that bought Palladium Eagles in 2017 and 2018, what spot price would convince you to sell them for melt?
From CNBC, today:
Palladium hit a new record high on Monday as the threat of strikes in the South-African mining industry exacerbated a supply deficit for the metal, while gold rose as the dollar slipped on signs of a U.S.-China trade deal.
Palladium was up 2 percent at $1,527.50 an ounce by 11:48 am ET, after scaling a peak of $1,531, with the autocatalyst metal having soared more than 80 percent since mid-August on a sustained supply shortage.
At least 15 mining firms in South Africa, home to the world's biggest platinum group metals deposits accounting for over 90 percent of global output, have received notices of strikes next week in support of colleagues at Sibanye-Stillwater who downed tools over wages and job cuts.
"The fundamental issue with palladium is any strike will drive prices through the roof because there is a shortfall with normal production, so any collapse of production will support prices," said Miguel Perez-Santalla, vice president of Heraeus Metal Management in New York.
"The threat of the South African mines strike spreading to the platinum mining industry is enough to make people nervous and that's why we're seeing some short-covering in platinum and palladium, driving both the metals higher."
At times like these, it might be helpful to review what happened in platinum during 2008. Anything can happen when they start messing with the mines.
I knew it would happen.
@Hemispherical said:
Wonder how first strike/release will be handled by the TPGs.
First Strike, I believe, is set by first ship date. From the First Strike page:
The PCGS First Strike program designates coins issued in the first 30 days of the Mint's release.
In this case PCGS would know of the "Mint To Order" for these and the delay in shipping. It would stand to reason that the First Strike window would be from the ship date. Otherwise, PCGS would be loosing money as NO 2019 Palladium Reverse Proof coins would be eligible. A bonus for the delayed ship date would be that ALL of these coins would be eligible for First Strike increasing the possible coins submitted for that designation. Equals a bigger chance of more money for PCGS. Seems like a no brainer.
Putin must be having a really good day as Russia was already the #1 palladium producer even without more mine shut downs in SA.
It is platinum that I believe that will be go up the most percentage wise from here and rhodium, which are mostly from SA only. Also quoted South Africa deposits/reserves are overstated.
Edited to add people better plan on car price increases of several hundred dollars just for the converters and theft will become very profitable. Plan on paying $1,000 to replace yours if someone cuts it off and steals it.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
jmski52| I along with many others that have been holding a few or more platinum eagles, would surely like to see a repeat of 2008 in platinum!
For sure, to be a flipper on these 2019's, one will have to have nerves of steel to play the game. I see no middle ground on the flipping game on this one-only big winners and big losers. Give me the dice though, as I may play the game for ONE!
You ain't kidding.
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
not selling.... even the ngc p/l
Wish I had bought several more Palladium Maple leaf's a couple years ago. I got 1 for $800 when it was $700 melt. I have considered selling it with the all time highs but I might just wait and see if there is a strike. I have heard that as catalytic convertors are used less there will be less demand for Palladium. Anyone know for sure?
Bestday: Having only one of each 2017 and 2018, I doubt if I would sell unlest the prices really went crazy. Platinums are another matter, as I had several of the earlier issues-before 2008-and being abroad was unable to play the game and still have them. With those, if there is ever a 2008 type of run-up, at least half would be on the block. Perhaps all. This may get interesting!
Too much unknown at this point, I'll probably pass...
Electric cars have zero emissions and no exhaust, so no catalytic converters of any kind. For sure.
Actually, it started with the 2012 San Francisco ASE set. A four-week window, MTO. It was done in response to the 2011 25th anniversary ASE set, because of all the complaints that only 100K 25th sets (with an HHL of 5) were too few, even though it took the 2006 20th ASE set (also 100K mintage) months to sell out.
And after it was over, people complained too many were made. Same for the 2013 ASE WP set.
Mint is damned if they do, and damned if they don't.
Edit to add: Does anyone remember the daily sales counter they had on the web page?
Does anyone remember the daily sales counter they had on the web page?
I do. And there was a count down timer to release for one issue. Can't remember which coin.
Apollo.
Jumping the shark.