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The trend lines are not good folks.

Tread lightly, boys.

The Crisser
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  • akuracy503akuracy503 Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭

    I think he’s talking about the “bubble” on vintage and or unopened?

    If it’s at all related I was tracking quite a few heritage premier auction lots this weekend.

    A lot of deals to be had. Some falling short of estimates and others just going through the roof still. Looks like Mantle stuff cannot be stopped! A 1962 3rd series topps 5c wax baseball in psa 7 went $4800 with bp. Serious stuff!
    A 1951 mantle debut ticket stub beat its previous records and finished at $7200 with bp. Mantle stuff is just irrational at this point imho

    CU Ancient Members badge member.

    Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums

  • Can we get some examples or links or explanation? Or is this just a... "PSA" ;)

  • coinspackscoinspacks Posts: 952 ✭✭✭✭

    I think it's a psa thing.

  • bishopbishop Posts: 2,917 ✭✭✭

    "The other day I got out my can opener and started to open a can of worms. Then I thought, why am I doing that"... Jack Handey

    Topps Baseball-1948, 1951 to 2017
    Bowman Baseball -1948-1955
    Fleer Baseball-1923, 1959-2007

    Al
  • ndleondleo Posts: 4,064 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Prices go up, prices go down, sometimes they don't change.

    That pretty much sums up the entire collectibles world. I feel smarter now.

    Mike
  • AllenAllen Posts: 7,165 ✭✭✭

    "Collectors often decried how money had ruined their hobby, making it hard for them to form meaningful friendships through their cards. Money, however, made the hobby not only profitable but also more serious, more instrumental, and therefore more manly. The same collectors who complained about greed often bragged in the same interview about the value of their cards. Yet money, in turn, made the hobby less akin to child's play and more like work: lonely, competitive, unfulfilling, and alienating." - Author John Bloom in A House of Cards (1997)

  • Is this like a serious business for some people?

  • krisd3279krisd3279 Posts: 808 ✭✭✭✭
    edited February 25, 2019 12:01PM

    If this was my primary source of income it would no longer be fun (edit: and I would be bankrupt).

    Kris

    My 1971 Topps adventure - Davis Men in Black

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,398 ✭✭✭✭✭

    the sky is falling, the sky is falling!!!

    George Brett, Bobby Orr and Terry Bradshaw.

  • steel75steel75 Posts: 1,589 ✭✭✭✭
    edited February 25, 2019 1:41PM

    When I start buying cards that go for thousands, then I'll worry.

    1970's Steelers, Vintage Indians
  • addicted2ebayaddicted2ebay Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭✭

    I had to look at the date first. He’s been saying this for years.

  • waxman2745waxman2745 Posts: 717 ✭✭✭

    My hairlines are not good. They are receding. :#

    Adam
    buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball
  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Crisser did you bail on Bitcoin? That is the only item I have ever read you state you have owned.

  • akuracy503akuracy503 Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭

    @Dpeck100 said:
    Crisser did you bail on Bitcoin? That is the only item I have ever read you state you have owned.

    Talk about bubbles. Lesson learned folks...stay away from bubbles. Unless it’s the big league chew type. And anything Mickey Mantle...

    CU Ancient Members badge member.

    Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums

  • SdubSdub Posts: 736 ✭✭✭

    I'm thrilled Crisscross came on here with his dooms-day prediction. Every previous bear market Nostradamus prediction has resulted in a 15-30% GAIN. When Crisscross starts advocating cards are under valued, that's when I'll start selling.

    Collecting PSA 9's from 1970-1977. Raw 9's from 72-77. Raw 10's from '78-'83.
    Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
    Prefer to buy in bulk.
  • krisd3279krisd3279 Posts: 808 ✭✭✭✭

    Signs point to yes

    Kris

    My 1971 Topps adventure - Davis Men in Black

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CrissCriss said:
    Hey DPeck, I exited at the start of the fall. It hurt some, but was still up massively - shifted into other holdings that are fantastic.

    The naysayers here don’t seem to recall that I was on point with the last correction. Live and learn. Or don’t.

    Nice. What a wild move it had up and then down.

  • gemintgemint Posts: 6,066 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Hasn't the Crisser been predicting a downturn for a few years now? I you hold to a prediction long enough, you'll eventually be right.

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,398 ✭✭✭✭✭

    quite a downturn we are experiencing here. first a 350k basketball card sale, then a 400k Football card sale. and we all know how terrible the vintage unopened market is...

    George Brett, Bobby Orr and Terry Bradshaw.

  • krisd3279krisd3279 Posts: 808 ✭✭✭✭

    I predict it will go up until it goes down and then it will probably go up again.

    Kris

    My 1971 Topps adventure - Davis Men in Black

  • rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    It’s 12 o’clock. Shall I bump the thread when I’m right?

  • demondeacsdemondeacs Posts: 113 ✭✭✭

    Which market is going down? Modern player set registries? HOF registries? Pokemon? Prospects? Vintage commons? Vintage star cards? Rookie cup registries? Real one auto registries?

    You could list an indefinite number of markets. Some are always going up and down,

  • rtimmerrtimmer Posts: 1,347 ✭✭✭✭

    @CrissCriss said:
    Hey DPeck, I exited at the start of the fall. It hurt some, but was still up massively - shifted into other holdings that are fantastic.

    The naysayers here don’t seem to recall that I was on point with the last correction. Live and learn. Or don’t.

    I was a naysayer and you're right I don't recall you were on point with the last correction, as a matter of fact from when I disagreed with your prediction prices are higher.

    Follow me at LinkedIn & Instagram: @ryanscard
    Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
    1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
  • BPorter26BPorter26 Posts: 3,499 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Criss, you should have passed this gloom and doom message to the guy who spent $400k on the Brady Contender. Mom the meatloaf.

    "EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY IT SAYS IT RIGHT THERE ON THE WALL" - JACKIE MOON
  • akuracy503akuracy503 Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭

    I still don’t know what crisscriss warned us about specifically. Newbie here from the olden days

    CU Ancient Members badge member.

    Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CrissCriss said:
    DPeck - that market was cray cray! I knew a lot of guys who got slammed because they were emotional and were sure it’d rebound. Kinda reminds me of here. 😂😂

    I was addicted to watching the cyptos trade on worldcoinindex.com for a while. They mirrored internet stocks from the 2000 era to a T. I was so baffled at the public's willingness to buy into the concept that I have to admit I enjoyed watching them collapse.

    It sounds like as usual you got out of dodge at the right time.

  • DarinDarin Posts: 6,247 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There's a fine line between getting out of Dodge at the right time and being run out.
    The casino there is called the boot hill casino. Will probably go there Fri. or Sat. hope I get out at the right time.LOL.

    DISCLAIMER FOR BASEBAL21
    In the course of every human endeavor since the dawn of time the risk of human error has always been a factor. Including but not limited to field goals, 4th down attempts, or multiple paragraph ramblings on a sports forum authored by someone who shall remain anonymous.
  • swartz1swartz1 Posts: 4,911 ✭✭✭

    Silver is up!



    Looking for 1970 MLB Photostamps
    - uncut


    Positive Transactions - tennesseebanker, Ahmanfan, Donruss, Colebear, CDsNuts, rbdjr1, Downtown1974, yankeeno7, drewsef, mnolan, mrbud60, msassin, RipublicaninMass, AkbarClone, rustywilly, lsutigers1973, julen23 and nam812, plus many others...
  • 70ToppsFanatic70ToppsFanatic Posts: 2,103 ✭✭✭✭

    @pab1969 said:
    I am enjoying this thread but I have no idea what the heck I'm reading.

    You are reading a thread containing the alleged wisdom of the crisscriss, a self-proclaimed seer of doom, gloom and negativity who hides behind the anonymity of the message board to try and jolt our members out of their irrational exhuberence with respect to the sports cards markets. It is then followed by the community’s generally positive doubt of the impending disaster and optimism going forward.

    But don’t worry. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and a while. The crisscriss will make sure to let you know in the event that his prognostications finally happen



    Dave
  • PaulMaulPaulMaul Posts: 4,680 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The fascinating thing about collectibles is that they have zero intrinsic value. So their valuation is based on emotion and perception. While these are powerful forces, they are imprecise. While I firmly believe unopened to be way overvalued at this point, well, until everyone's perception of its value changes, I'll continue to be wrong.

  • BaltimoreYankeeBaltimoreYankee Posts: 2,894 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My prediction: We'll see what happens.

    Daniel
  • rtimmerrtimmer Posts: 1,347 ✭✭✭✭

    @PaulMaul said:
    The fascinating thing about collectibles is that they have zero intrinsic value. So their valuation is based on emotion and perception. While these are powerful forces, they are imprecise. While I firmly believe unopened to be way overvalued at this point, well, until everyone's perception of its value changes, I'll continue to be wrong.

    I feel the same about Picasso and Jaspers Johns works, the more they go up the more I don’t get it.
    .... but of course price history has proved me wrong for the last 60 years but I still prefer Bob Ross, 1980’s baseball and basketball unopened!!

    Follow me at LinkedIn & Instagram: @ryanscard
    Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
    1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
  • 45isodd45isodd Posts: 206 ✭✭✭

    The thing about market timing when it comes to sports cards is that it turns what is enjoyable and fun into something that becomes work. By and large, we work because we need to earn a living, and when a hobby turns into work, for me, much of the enjoyment is lost. In order for it not to become work, I try not to put myself in a position where I need to sell a card to cover my bills, and I normally don’t buy a card in order to flip it within a few weeks or months of buying it. From my own experience, I’ve tracked some of the big dollar cards that I’ve sold, and watched the buyers who’ve tried to sell the same card within a few months just take a bath. After witnessing this happen more than once, it taught me a lesson that you really need to wait until a card cycles out of a price range, which could take several years, before you attempt to sell. If you’re selling a card in the same range you bought it in, you’ll always lose due to sellers and/or consignment fees. Buy a card you can afford to put away and forget about for a while. And if you have to sell, don’t always look to sell the big cards, just because it will be the quickest fix. Sell a bunch of cards you don’t care as much about, even if it takes more time and effort.

  • flatfoot816flatfoot816 Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭

    collect what you love and none of this matters. I've been collecting for over 30 years. Unopened mostly but also high grade sets. I do not sell very often. Prices have gone up. Prices have gone down. And I've always loved what I have--swings in value notwithstanding

  • rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    @45isodd said:
    The thing about market timing when it comes to sports cards is that it turns what is enjoyable and fun into something that becomes work. By and large, we work because we need to earn a living, and when a hobby turns into work, for me, much of the enjoyment is lost. In order for it not to become work, I try not to put myself in a position where I need to sell a card to cover my bills, and I normally don’t buy a card in order to flip it within a few weeks or months of buying it. From my own experience, I’ve tracked some of the big dollar cards that I’ve sold, and watched the buyers who’ve tried to sell the same card within a few months just take a bath. After witnessing this happen more than once, it taught me a lesson that you really need to wait until a card cycles out of a price range, which could take several years, before you attempt to sell. If you’re selling a card in the same range you bought it in, you’ll always lose due to sellers and/or consignment fees. Buy a card you can afford to put away and forget about for a while. And if you have to sell, don’t always look to sell the big cards, just because it will be the quickest fix. Sell a bunch of cards you don’t care as much about, even if it takes more time and effort.

    I agree. I have some Acuna card that have been weighing on my mind. Sell now and make some money? Hold for a big gain at the risk of a loss? It takes the fun out of it.

  • brad31brad31 Posts: 2,530 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 1, 2019 8:41AM

    To me as long as my want list is longer than my have list bring on a crash. I cannot imagine a crash large enough for that equation to flip so I would welcome everything getting way cheaper. My collecting focus is 50s to 70s HOF in PSA 8 or 8.5. I spend what I can on cards and have pushed my budget the last few years as it seems more cards I would like to get move out of my price range each year. I try to identify some I can barely afford now and get them while I still can. If my most expensive purchase for a single card, a recently purchased ‘62 Mays in SGC 8 went down to $400 I would dance for joy - that would mean that ‘62 topps in PSA 8 moved well into my price range and I could get them all. If my most valuable card a Kaline rookie in 8 crashed to $100 I would excitedly snap up the Banks rookie I could now afford. Maybe I could start looking at PSA 9s in 1950s Topps as attainable - move into tobacco cards - get a Babe Ruth in high grade, open a bunch of 70s boxes!! Wow would that be fun. Unfortunately I do not think a severe crash will come - but it is fun to dream.

  • detroitfan2detroitfan2 Posts: 3,311 ✭✭✭✭

    You know it's been a long day when the 5th inning rolls around and the grounds crew goes out and drags the warning track.

  • KendallCatKendallCat Posts: 2,966 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @flatfoot816 said:
    collect what you love and none of this matters. I've been collecting for over 30 years. Unopened mostly but also high grade sets. I do not sell very often. Prices have gone up. Prices have gone down. And I've always loved what I have--swings in value notwithstanding

    Great advice Manny as well as 45isodd. I had someone give me advice years ago before I even knew what graded cards were and that is collect what YOU enjoy. He said it is just like collecting fine art, and pick pieces you enjoy looking at not pieces because others like them. That way if they become less valuable you will still enjoy them. I was working on a Mantle run from 1951-69, and I had picked up 1951-1960 with a couple of 60’s cards, but I abandoned the pursuit after determining there were cards like 1961, 1963, 1967... that I had no desire to collect or want. Makes no sense to pay for items that you don’t want so I changed course.

    There is question that there is a financial component to collecting and some cards are big money whether buying or selling. When I first started collecting PSA cards in the mid 90’s I was a “snob”in regards to grades and i would only collect PSA 8 examples or higher of cards. In recent years I have focused on the card itself and have found 5’s and 6’s that look like 8’s, and those are fun because it makes you work to find them but the payoff is savings and more budget to grab other cards.

    If someone asked me for advice I would keep it simple:

    1.) Collect what you like.

    2.) Have a budget

    3.) Remember #2 and stick to your budget

    4.) Give up the good cards to get the great ones - you can always go back and pick up the good ones later.

    5.) Don’t try to collect everything -it only leads to frustration.

    6.) Don’t try to keep up with the Jones’ - you don’t have their budget and can never keep up. Always go back to points 1 and 2.

    Finally - if you have kids include them and teach them about collecting. It is much more fun to do it as a family.

    KC

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