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Will there be an economic reset, and what do you think an economic/monetary reset would look like?

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  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,814 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Even as the dollar has dropped 15% against the basket, the ruble has dropped 40% against the dollar. Hard to fathom that some rail against the former and laud the latter.

    You forgot to post a link to the national anthem. maybe a flag isn't covering their eyes. Blind faith in most cases proves to be a mistake. the truth always sets one free.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 19, 2023 8:44AM

    @derryb said:

    ... the truth always sets one free.
    >

    Indeed!!! Perhaps it's time to come out of your bunker prison then.

    https://youtu.be/c8tK3u3P53Y

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,891 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    ... the truth always sets one free.
    >

    Indeed!!! Perhaps it's time to come out of your bunker prison then.

    https://youtu.be/c8tK3u3P53Y

    PS: "merica is boomin! The market is on fire!! RGDS!!!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,814 ✭✭✭✭✭

    food prices are on fire. LOL

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    food prices are on fire. LOL




    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 20, 2023 9:53AM

    Trusting those FED charts again? LOL

    USDA: In 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase 6.0 percent

    6% inflation is 300% of your FED's target. I'd call that more than "luke warm."

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Trusting those FED charts again? LOL

    USDA: In 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase 6.0 percent

    6% inflation is 300% of your FED's target. I'd call that more than "luke warm."

    You suggest Govt info is not to be trusted then post Govt info.

    And you've often used FRED charts to try to prove your point.

    You're too much man. Too much.

    I hope food prices triple again. That might just curb our obesity crisis and save us trillions in Healthcare costs.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,814 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I've also post BLS employment charts and I strongly, publicly disagree with them because we all know they get later "revised" to worse numbers.

    Paying less for food? You're the only one. LOL

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • RobMRobM Posts: 551 ✭✭✭

    Direct quote from the BLS, "the food index increased 0.1 percent in June after increasing 0.2 percent the previous month".

    derryb suggests food prices "are on fire", and cohodk responds with "LOL". Guess what, both are, respectfully, incorrect. Annualizing increases using the past couple months CPI data would yield a 1.8% annual inflation rate for food. This is not "on fire", but within the range the FED is targeting (illegally IMO). But perhaps a greater exaggeration is using Producer prices for food to somehow suggest that consumers are paying less for food. They are not, and I doubt that food producers or retailers have plans to cut prices any time soon.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    I've also post BLS employment charts and I strongly, publicly disagree with them because we all know they get later "revised" to worse numbers.

    Paying less for food? You're the only one. LOL

    Didn't say that, but I will say im.not paying more.

    You do seem to disagree a lot with the truth though. But that seems to be the norm these days.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 20, 2023 3:02PM

    @RobM said:
    They are not, and I doubt that food producers or retailers have plans to cut prices any time soon.

    Stop buying so much. All of us probably have a months worth of foodstuffs in our house. Prices would collapse if we stopped our gluttony, but we are weak.

    In the meantime.....sure.loving current interest rates.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,460 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 20, 2023 8:55PM

    @cohodk said:
    I hope food prices triple again. That might just curb our obesity crisis and save us trillions in Healthcare costs.

    @cohodk said:

    @RobM said:
    They are not, and I doubt that food producers or retailers have plans to cut prices any time soon.

    Stop buying so much. All of us probably have a months worth of foodstuffs in our house. Prices would collapse if we stopped our gluttony, but we are weak.

    In the meantime.....sure.loving current interest rates.

    .

    Some people are weak (minded).

    You are apparently not familiar with "economy of scale". With products that are renewable and perishable (such as food), producing less does not necessarily mean that prices decrease. In fact, the opposite can be true.

    .

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,891 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @RobM said:
    They are not, and I doubt that food producers or retailers have plans to cut prices any time soon.

    Stop buying so much. All of us probably have a months worth of foodstuffs in our house. Prices would collapse if we stopped our gluttony, but we are weak.

    In the meantime.....sure.loving current interest rates.

    Here in The Commonwealth we produce much of our own foodstuffs. Certainly there are things we need to acquire at the grocery but that rarely amounts to more than $50 a week for me and the Missus. Current interest rates are certainly a blessing. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:
    I hope food prices triple again. That might just curb our obesity crisis and save us trillions in Healthcare costs.

    @cohodk said:

    @RobM said:
    They are not, and I doubt that food producers or retailers have plans to cut prices any time soon.

    Stop buying so much. All of us probably have a months worth of foodstuffs in our house. Prices would collapse if we stopped our gluttony, but we are weak.

    In the meantime.....sure.loving current interest rates.

    .

    Some people are weak (minded).

    You are apparently not familiar with "economy of scale". With products that are renewable and perishable (such as food), producing less does not necessarily mean that prices decrease. In fact, the opposite can be true.

    .

    I "apparently" am not, so could you please cite some examples?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,814 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Bearly, your first link doesn't work. :'(

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb

    Mish is a thoughtful blogger. I agree with his assessment of the BRICS as follows:

    “Launching a BRIC currency is, for now, somewhere between extremely difficult and impossible, in any meaningful sense.”

    Also, his assessment that reform of the global monetary/payment system is likely to evolve from EU initiatives rather than from disgruntled upstarts:

    “don’t be surprised if something truly significant starts with the EU”

    Among other things, the Europeans have many decades of experience in building institutions,

    Higashiyama
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I keep reading that a global payment system isn't possible without a well-developed bond market, and yet - it's a debt-based system (and the ways in which it has been used) that seems to be under fire because of manipulation by a small inner circle and its weaponization against real or imaginary adversaries.

    Debt isn't capital. It's a control mechanism.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said: "Debt isn't capital. It's a control mechanism."

    The first statement is definitely true. (Although if I own bonds in good standing, they are of course assets, and contribute to my capital)

    Regarding the second, debt is a lot of things, primarily, a critical tool for economic growth and societal well being. Prudently used, it of course adds value. Many, many, many home owners are glad to have had mortgages available. Many business owners were able to grow their businesses through prudent use of debt. Even in established businesses where liquidity needs vary over time, short term debt can be an essential management tool.

    With that said, I am not unsympathetic to the idea that lenders (private or government) can use debt as a way to seduce, manipulate, and control. We should work to mitigate the down sides of debt financing, but we would kill the economy if we tried to eliminate debt altogether.

    Higashiyama
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If you blow up schools and hospitals, condone rape and murder, and deprive folk of basic necessities such as food, water and electricity, then you had better hope a confiscation of assets is all you suffer.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 23, 2023 5:31PM

    Coho - did you get a waiver from posting political diatribe?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 25, 2023 5:13AM

    Jim Rickards: New BRICS Currency Boosts Gold & Destroys Dollar

    Inflation is gonna get worse for items priced in dollars.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It might be interesting to see what happens to precious metals pricing around Aug. 22nd.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,891 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Jim Rickards: New BRICS Currency Boosts Gold & Destroys Dollar

    Inflation is gonna get worse for items priced in dollars.

    Only thing inflating these days is my 401K, IRA's, and bank accounts. Rickards is a quack, he's been doomsday preaching about the end of the world for decades now. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 25, 2023 1:29PM

    @blitzdude said:

    @derryb said:
    Jim Rickards: New BRICS Currency Boosts Gold & Destroys Dollar

    Inflation is gonna get worse for items priced in dollars.

    Only thing inflating these days is my 401K, IRA's, and bank accounts. Rickards is a quack, he's been doomsday preaching about the end of the world for decades now. RGDS!

    probably explains why he is an economic consultant for US intelligence and why he is a seven times best selling financial book author. Smart man who understands not only what the future economic landscape looks like, but also why it looks that way and how to prepare for it.

    Hell, he probably even knows more about your wild chickens than you do.

    So cut the cohooka approach of attempting to discredit the messenger simply because you are not qualified to discredit the message.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,814 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The "economy" is interesting....

    You folks are absolutely fascinating!

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 1, 2023 6:00PM

    @Baley said:
    The "economy" is interesting....

    You folks are absolutely fascinating!

    it ain't rocket science. Anyone that balances a checkbook, pays bills and knows how to control their spending should have no probelm understanding it. ;)

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 19, 2023 1:26AM

    @RobM said:
    Direct quote from the BLS, "the food index increased 0.1 percent in June after increasing 0.2 percent the previous month".

    derryb suggests food prices "are on fire", and cohodk responds with "LOL". Guess what, both are, respectfully, incorrect. Annualizing increases using the past couple months CPI data would yield a 1.8% annual inflation rate for food. This is not "on fire", but within the range the FED is targeting (illegally IMO). But perhaps a greater exaggeration is using Producer prices for food to somehow suggest that consumers are paying less for food. They are not, and I doubt that food producers or retailers have plans to cut prices any time soon.

    Don't fall in love with stats from the BLS, even the PPI or Food Prices which on the surface seem simple to calculate. They have lots of little tricks installed to ensure the numbers are smaller than reality. Substitutional effects for one. For example if the price of steak gets too high, people will start shifting to beef. And if beef gets too high, they'll shift to hot dogs or dog food. All of those shifts represent a reduction in the cost of living, despite the quality of your living being reduced. There are also "quality" effects and "hedonics." Even nuttier is the "geometric averaging" which makes no sense in one's basket of goods purchased with analog or digital dollars. This kind of mentality is laced throughout the CPI, PPI, Core CPI, etc. The idea is to get us the lowest possible PPI and CPI for our tax dollars.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @derryb said:
    Jim Rickards: New BRICS Currency Boosts Gold & Destroys Dollar

    Inflation is gonna get worse for items priced in dollars.

    probably explains why he is an economic consultant for US intelligence and why he is a seven times best selling financial book author. Smart man who understands not only what the future economic landscape looks like, but also why it looks that way and how to prepare for it.

    https://dailyreckoning.com/the-great-american-blunder/

    Speaking of Rickards....on the economic and geo-political impact of pushing Russia and China together.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,257 ✭✭✭✭✭

    FWIW, dollars are effectively more “real” than gold to anyone who has debts denominated in dollars, at least up to the amount of the debt. In fact, it’s those debts that ensure the demand for dollars. (By comparison, bitcoin and gold are purely speculative because there’s no fixed source of demand.)

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,814 ✭✭✭✭✭

    In light of the fact that international banking (SWIFT payment system controlled by the US> @MrEureka said:

    FWIW, dollars are effectively more “real” than gold to anyone who has debts denominated in dollars, at least up to the amount of the debt. In fact, it’s those debts that ensure the demand for dollars. (By comparison, bitcoin and gold are purely speculative because there’s no fixed source of demand.)

    debt is a promise. Gold promises dollar protection.

    debt does not create a demand for dollars. debt is a paper game unless one is paying debt with cash. and even then it is just a musical game for dollars, they simply go from here to there.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Debt is a control mechanism, denominated in dollars. The demand for dollars is indeed created by the loans that banks make, and having no reserve requirement only adds fuel to the eventual conflagration. The banks can do whatever the hell they want with no repercussions.

    The debt in dollars is certainly made real for borrowers, but the defaults on bad loans never fall on the decision-makers or officers who run the banks that make the bad loans in the first place. They'll always get their bonuses, no matter what.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,288 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Took on debt to buy silver. I'm gonna bet the percentage on the loan will be offset by the gains in the metal. If not, I default and turn my silver into bullets to kill the werewolf when he comes.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Took on debt to buy silver.

    Up $0.76 today. Good timing! ;)

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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