Doug Winter: Rare Gold Coins: What Was In Demand In 2018?

Zoins

Did anyone here post this blog article? It's a worthwhile article and I don't recall seeing it at the time or with search now.

2018 was a decidedly mixed year for the rare coin market. In brief: interesting rare coins performed fairly well to very well, while uninteresting coins performed terribly.

To be more specific, the rare date gold market continued to be among the strongest—if not THE strongest—area of the coin market. This was especially true for series which were collector-oriented or which were popular for any number of reasons.

Not all rare date gold coins were in demand in 2018. And not all examples of a specific date or type were sought-after. It was very easy to sell choice, original early half eagles in collector grades (EF to low-end Uncirculated). But the exact same dates/types were difficult to sell if they had eye appeal issues. More than any time in recent memory, collectors wanted to own pretty, pleasing coins and if they were rare or interesting, so much the better.

There were at least four areas which stood out (at least in my opinion) in 2018. I base this on how well they sold on my website and how well they sold when they appeared at auction. The following list is based on my observation(s) and different dealers may have entirely different perceptions.

Continued here:

• https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2018/12/18/rare-gold-coins-what-was-in-demand-in-2018
• https://coinweek.com/dealers-companies/doug-winter-us-gold-dealers-companies/rare-gold-coins-what-was-in-demand-in-2018/

cameonut2011

"We now have pricing scenarios where a choice AU55 Capped Bust Right half eagle with CAC approval is worth more than a non-CAC MS61, or where a CAC EF45 Capped Bust Right eagle with CAC approval is worth more than an AU55 without a CAC sticker."

On its face this statement seems shocking and and unsustainable. On the other hand, there are so many problem coins in straight graded holders for the series. I wish he would have clarified whether the comparison coins are decent non-CACed pieces or run of the mill/scrubbed to death, "drecky" non-CACed coins.

cameonut2011

His picks are not surprising to me. The coins that seem to do best are truly rare coins (not faux rarity attributed to many U.S. issues) with great eye appeal and early federal coinage across all denominations and metal.

OnlyGoldIsMoney

I never imagined I would read a statement like the following one about the heretofore unpopular series I collect:

I expect the demand for Liberty Head quarter eagles to continue to be strong in 2019.

fc

I am not sure what to make of this. My first thought is that he buys what he knows he can flip. If prices for the material he normally wants is too high he has to pass. Which means that material is already selling at full retail at auctions and what not. Meaning what great material shows up, in less quantity then the past, he cant purchase it at dealer prices. Thus he gets and promotes what he buys which is the less desirable stuff. No offense to anyone. P and S can never compete with C and D in the overall rarity game. And early gold was always harder to find with eye appeal he wants. Anything he finds that passes his approval sells.

Baley

There has long been more to valuing rare early material than technical "remaining details" grade, there us also relative "beenfutzedwithness" that explains the higher price and liquidity of lightly worn but original surfaces versus all the details but whole thing been warshed off and shined up.

And of course the sticker implies a bid,
aka "the JA call" (or is it a Put?)

ricko

Interesting article... Thanks for the link. I like gold coins (and nuggets)...So always interested in different perspectives. Cheers, RickO

spacehayduke

Good to hear quarter eagles were strong, love to see that continue..........

AlexinPA

Very interesting, thanks.

CharlotteDude

Been there... still at it. Just say NO to market acceptable grading.

ranshdow

@Baley said:
And of course the sticker implies a bid,
aka "the JA call" (or is it a Put?)

It's like a put, but I understand JA hasn't bid on every CAC coin put to him. Also, there is no contract premium, no strike price, and no expiry, so it's a stretch to think of it like a securities option.

Of the two parties to an option contract, the type of contract it is (put or call) is defined by which party has the choice (the 'option') to exercise and which party is obligated to fulfill the contract. CAC is 'obligated', the coin's owner has the 'choice', so that's why it's put-like.

Baley

JA doesn't need to "make a market" in everything stickered, because many others also trade among themselves on the basis of his (their) judgment and solvency.