Silver has bottomed where I predicted...
cladking
Posts: 28,656 ✭✭✭✭✭
Well, I believe it has bottomed at $13.97 and I predicted "just under $14".
I've never seen sentiment so bearish for silver and to a lesser extent all precious metals. Butler might be the only bull
left.
Tempus fugit.
0
Comments
where will it top? Count me in with Butler.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The last good rally had it in the low 20's
I see no reason to send it back to those levels
The FED and trade wars oughta do it
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I believe that's why we're going back now.
I also believe that before we get there that inflation will have become obvious and we'll shoot right through it.
All markets are based not on supply or demand so much as psychology and the perception that silver is plentiful has pushed the price as low as it can go. Now sellers will begin to dry up because they've all sold. With buyers controlling the market the price can only increase until sellers gain the upper hand again. There is essentially no upside limit other than the old high adjusted for inflation. This will likely be a much faster and sharper move than we've seen previously.
I expect this inflationary cycle to be somewhat unlike most others. While good companies will die and bad ones propped up the damage to the economy will not be as severe as one might expect based on historic norms. Bottom lines will be flush with cash as money velocity increases. I expect strong employment, improving efficiency, and a resilient, if not buoyant, stock market.
Without inflation silver price will be capped at a much lower level. With it expect to see a buying panic at some point.
sellers will not be drying up because most of the buyers are resellers (speculation).
Silver's on the move recently, without a gain in inflation fears. Price is being driven by equity fears and Chinese trade fears. Speculators smell the fear and are helping drive the price.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Indeed!
This inflation is going to come bounding outta the blue.
It will be a psychological reaction to ballooning debt and faster money.
Things are worth what people believe they are worth and the belief in the value of the dollar will quickly erode over the next 18 month and beyond. The FED will be unable to raise interests rates sufficiently to have much effect because higher rates will destroy markets. We simply can't pay the interest on the many trillions of debt if the rates are much higher than they are now. They're going to be caught between collapse and inflation as people come to believe that the dollar isn't worth as much.
_ We simply can't pay the interest on the many trillions of debt if the rates are much higher than they are now. They're going to be caught between collapse and inflation as people come to believe that the dollar isn't worth as much._
Not to mention the pension funds who can't meet their projected payouts with rates low, and it's too late for the fund pools to recover even if rates increase.
There's no other way out besides default. We haven't even begun to see how much money creation will be required. Problem is, we'll never know where the money comes from, or where it goes. We can only try to cope.
I don't believe this arrangement can continue for a long time.
I knew it would happen.
There is still plenty of money dumb enough to keep pouring it into our debt.
There is plenty of room (time) left for more debt.
See Japan.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Then see Venezuela.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Venezuela started their own decline by seizing assets of foreign oil and mining companies.
Then they instituted price fixing.
They have the means to pay their debts but not the means to get it out of the ground and shipped. Although Russia very recently made a deal for $6 more billion to help their oil and mining industries. I can only guess they offered to help because the last $6 billion wasn't being regularly paid back on schedule. It seems having no paid brains and failing equipment doesn't get oil and gold to customers.
Plenty of time and room left. 15 years and $25 trillion easy.
Why?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
why not?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Only if you want to compare apples and oranges.
'Ville apples & oranges
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The oranges compare better to the apples.
Although a good Granny Smith can be quite nice.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Blood orange should be required eating in all public schools.
Lessons from Venezuela
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
All we have to do now is pretend the US is even remotely close to Venezuela. LMAO.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Mention Weimar and Zimbabwe and the Dutch tulip mania. Argentina and Mexico and a dozen others. Did silver save 'em?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I got friends hoarding cash. Some hoard gold. Some hoard realty. Some hoard guns and others hoard bullets. Bottom line is : most everyone, except for my friends who are poor, hoard something.
Yes, I have friends in low places.
Go figure.
'Silver has bottomed where I predicted"
It ain't over till the fat lady sings
It ain't over till the fat lady sings
It hasn't spiked upward yet either. So, there's that.
I knew it would happen.
You didn't predict the bottom because we haven't reached it.
Perhaps not but the amount of buying pressure that will be exerted anytime silver gets down to $14 will be stupendous.
Even a small drop in the stock market now should result in a large spike in silver.
How big of drop do you need?
Dec 3rd:
DJI - 25,885
Dec 10:
DJI - 24,106
Typically PMs drop along with equities as everyone runs to cash. PMs do tend to recover quickly when that cash figures out the best current place to go.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I run to short term treasuries ......
Interest exempt from state tax too
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I don't think anyone is ready.
Silver is grossly undervalued and this will change far more quickly than people think.
We now live in a "bubble economy" that is wholly unpredictable and is more dependent on government and financial manipulation than on any kind of fundamental.
I believe the only givens at this time is sharply higher inflation caused by these shenanigans and the history of spending, and increases in anything that can hold its value as profits, money velocity, and inflation soar.
cladking........The only comment of yours that I agree with is: silver may have bottomed out. The rest of your comments, in my opinion is the usual b.s. that has floated around for the last 50 years or so. Partial truths taken to the extremes.
cladking.......I agree that silver is undervalued. We have already seen higher asset inflation. Yes, we live in a bubble economy.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The next few months are usually good for metals plus the added bonus from the clowns on both sided running the country in the ground we like to say look how these children act now days well they are just watching the adults sad but true. I agree silver in the later part of 2019 will move into the $13 range but even $15 is fine for the long haul. Things are starting to unravel oversea as well as here faster then expected we might even see 2021 be the start instead of 2023.
Cost of mining an ounce of silver is about $11.... how much higher "should" it be valued?
Of course, that's the bulk price; it costs more to craft into cute little fetish shapes and to advertise it and ship it to the buyers, so maybe $15 is a fair number for most collectible trinkets.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Dont forget the Bag to Hold it in! 😉
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I prefer the green boxes.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Baley did you juice these photos?
It "shouldn't" be valued at any price whatsoever except as supply and demand dictate in a market free of the interference of government and financial pressures.
It is grossly undervalued right now for the simple reason that the bears are rampant. They make money selling metal they don't have and have been doing this so long they believe it can only continue. Bulls have been getting killed since 1979. Obviously if the sellers outweigh the buyers the price will be depressed and at this time the sellers outweigh the buyers of silver by the largest margin I've ever seen.
Almost everyone is a short-term, medium-term, and a long-term bear. Even bulls aren't looking for a short-term move. This is a prescription for explosive moves because this is the nature of the perversity of the species and natural cyclical patterns.
Silver, and everything else, has no intrinsic value. It simply seems that things have value that is dependent on their cost to produce but the reality is this cost is merely the fulcrum around which the price will usually oscillate. Even the cost to produce something can oscillate wildly and in a financial system where nothing is pegged to reality these fluctuations can have far more amplitude. For instance even the producers are probably short so much silver the cost of production will soar to cover the losses. Sure, someone else will step in to reopen profitable mines when the shenanigans make the CEO's wealthy and everyone else poor but this will involve disruptions to supply and further discontinuity in costs. In five years we could see the price of silver at $50 and the cost to produce it at 500. Of course, I'm not predicting such a thing.
I'm merely "predicting" everyone who can sell has sold and everyone who could buy isn't. This is as extreme as any pendulum can swing. The price has one way to go and in a bubble economy where there is no longer anything stable or of real lasting quality, it can be quite sudden.
Let me put this another way;
Anything the government can do to thwart the rising price of gold will now have an outsized negative effect on the stock and bond markets. They have no choice but to let the price run and it will run to about $2500 before they can regain the upper hand and drag it back down.
If gold weren't a "barbarous relic" its current price would be in the $30,000 area.
The long term cycles work strongly against it and this won't change (I hope).
Can you please quantify the words "grossly undervalued" as it pertains to your opinion of silver?
Also please explain how you derive st a $30,000 valuation for gold?
Thank you.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Grossly undervalued" simply means that the buyers and sellers are grossly out of balance and this situation always must rectify itself.
At one time the total value of all things and the aggregate value of all gold maintained a sort of equilibrium. This no longer is true because gold is a "barbarous relic" exactly as its detractors say. But it still reflects the absolute value of the first derivative of the decrease of the value of money as caused by inflation. In other words a small percentage of the population will use gold as a hedge to protect wealth during inflationary cycles. As inflation increases their holdings increase and the demand causes rising prices.
How high it goes is a complex question. With no bubble I'd expect to see it around $75 assuming only 10% inflation for the next two years and a 30,000 DOW. I expect the market and bonds to actually struggle because of the inefficiencies caused by inflation and fear. So I'll predict a quick run-up to $100 and then a precipitous drop as the first bout of inflation seems to start coming under control. After this it will depend on the specific behavior of quite a few highly fluid markets with no base in the reality of supply and demand. The next few years are highly unpredictable and politics and foreign subterfuge as well as the machinations of the wealthiest people will act like the tail wagging the dog.
The meek lost control of the earth 4000 years ago and won't regain it for a while yet.
A lot of what's going on has to do with China and their desires. But as always everything is founded on events of the past. It's not a good time to be wedded to any strategy or financial technique that has been effective in the past. Buy low and sell high has always been the only thing that actually works and is impossible without a crystal ball.
I was hoping you could provide some quantitative analysis on why you have determined the balance of buyers and sellers is so messed up? In a world where information is abundant and money flows freely, i would be interested in this arbitrage situation you have identified. I was hoping you could have said you believe silver is worth $75 because of this and this and this.
What evidence do you have that the value if gold vs the value of all things was in equilibrium?
Actual numbers do indeed help to prove a point. Can you please provide some tangible evidence to support your claim?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It's all relative brother.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
If I offer $25 to a kid to mow my lawn, and then after it's mowed I hand him an IOU with a promise to pay him in 6 months or 5 years at a slightly higher amount, have I created money?
If I repeat this process over the next 10 years with successively larger projects through various contractors and then at the end of 10 years, we all discover that I simply don't have the money to pay them, have I created money?
Even though some of the contractors know each other and know that my promissory notes haven't yet been paid, when some of them start to sell my notes amongst themselves at a discount in order to raise cash, have I created money?
What's the total world debt now? $225 trillion? more? less? What's the world's GDP? Who actually thinks that all that debt will ever be paid? What do you think will be the outcome when rising rates cause an inability to service the debt?
Somebody's not going to be happy.
Debt instruments really, really, really aren't "money".
At one time the total value of all things and the aggregate value of all gold maintained a sort of equilibrium. This no longer is true because gold is a "barbarous relic" exactly as its detractors say. But it still reflects the absolute value of the first derivative of the decrease of the value of money as caused by inflation.
+1
I knew it would happen.
I was posting while you were typing. If that doesn't answer the question I'll try again.
Frankly, I never did get much into research and building arguments from data. It's not my wheelhouse.
Going in a million directions at once is more my speed.
I believe the statements are reasonably accurate.
I will say that without large amounts of financial instruments there certainly had to be enough money (gold) to cover the goods and services extent. There was obviously a close correlation.
Not really!
When the pendulum swings all the way in one direction it must fall back. Bears transform into bulls like magic. Then when everyone is making tons of money on increasing prices the pendulum swings the other way and new bears manifest.
Everything is cyclical. Bears appear from falling prices and bulls from rising prices.
Of course on the individual level it's more complex but trying to understand humans on this level is quite complex especially as it concerns economic behavior.
Sounds like somebody is having a Big Mac attack. Noice! Stack on!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.