@Gradedmoderncoins said:
The 1990 $25 is a $1500-1600 coin in ms69 and that has a higher mintage than the 2018, so once these coins are distributed into long-term holders' hands so their is minimal available supply, I would imagine the 2018 could get to a similar or perhaps even higher price level.
I've always had the feeling that with the '90, '91, and a couple of other "nearby" dates that there's something a lot of us are missing that has led to a scarcity that can't be explained by their mintages alone. Could be that a bunch of them are sitting in vaults overseas perhaps, but it's obvious that mintages don't correlate to values. It wouldn't surprise me if someday, a bunch of these early dates suddenly flooded the market. As a collector, I'll also add that because these business strike coins are NOT made specifically for collectors, that makes them more interesting—and perhaps more valuable. All that said, I'll be surprised if the 2018s ever approach values anywhere near the '90, '91, etc... Too many people are paying attention now, so every coin is going to get accounted for. That wasn't true in '91.
—Thoughts of an Ignorant Collector
I agree completely. This feeds into the dispersion idea, and why as a corollary that modern "scarcities" such as the recent $5 gold commems will likely not rise to similar values as flipper madness continues but possibly (and hopefully) slacking just a bit....
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
size of collector base keeps the premiums down for the modern gold comms and for the gold ladies. The speculation that drives these up initially begins to fade without collector demand.
@Gradedmoderncoins said:
The 1990 $25 is a $1500-1600 coin in ms69 and that has a higher mintage than the 2018, so once these coins are distributed into long-term holders' hands so their is minimal available supply, I would imagine the 2018 could get to a similar or perhaps even higher price level.
I've always had the feeling that with the '90, '91, and a couple of other "nearby" dates that there's something a lot of us are missing that has led to a scarcity that can't be explained by their mintages alone. Could be that a bunch of them are sitting in vaults overseas perhaps, but it's obvious that mintages don't correlate to values. It wouldn't surprise me if someday, a bunch of these early dates suddenly flooded the market. As a collector, I'll also add that because these business strike coins are NOT made specifically for collectors, that makes them more interesting—and perhaps more valuable. All that said, I'll be surprised if the 2018s ever approach values anywhere near the '90, '91, etc... Too many people are paying attention now, so every coin is going to get accounted for. That wasn't true in '91.
—Thoughts of an Ignorant Collector
If I recall in Eric's book he suggests the possibility that some business strikes like the '91 $25 hide in IRA accounts.
mintage on the the bulk bullion issues is a non-issue. Even the "low" mintages are high. Speculation eventually loses its luster. If ya got 'em, sell 'em.
@Gradedmoderncoins said:
Value isn’t just determined by supply. Demand is as much a factor in setting the value in the market. The 1/2 series is very popular with collectors.
because of its mintage number. Supply has an affect on demand.
I don't agree with this statement in that supply is not always and identical identity. Please see comments as to dispersion.
I will also drum up the often-cited examples of the 1982 and 1983 PD quarters. Literally hundreds of millions struck, but as a percentage (and even in absolute numbers) few were saved out.
Or, the 1991 $25 Eagle in Unc. which will IMO remain, and so far has tracked way above, recent $5 commems or even the more recent satin unc. special US Mint struck $50 gold - far lower numbers as far as supply but actually far more available and moreover a much lower demand in any case.
Anyway, I could go on and on.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
Sleeper- Most of these bullion sales (prior to November) of the 2018 were made and dispersed as Bullion- effectively removing them from the collector market. Once the existing supply from recent sales burns out- as I believe is happening- then prices theoretically should increase. Isn’t this actually happening now?
The Apmex premium for an original roll of 2018 half-ozers over the 2019 roll pre-sale price is now $9,877 (corrected). They decreased their premium for a roll by almost $2,000 since Saturday. That's a now a premium of $247/coin.
They must not have been selling them at the higher price.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
The Apmex premium for an original roll of 2018 half-ozers over the 2019 roll pre-sale price is now $9,877 (corrected). They decreased their premium for a roll by almost $2,000 since Saturday. That's a now a premium of $247/coin.
They must not have been selling them at the higher price.
Apmex had a quantity of rolls. They only have one left. Therefore, it’s logical to assume they are selling- and selling quite well. Apmex has been increasing the price as their inventory was decreasing- with the exception of the most recent minor adjustment.
Prices on raw and ms69 appear to still be moving up on eBay. Supply is lower as well. I have heard reports of some large transactions of 69 graded coins. Any others reports?
I've always had the feeling that with the '90, '91, and a couple of other "nearby" dates that there's something a lot of us are missing that has led to a scarcity that can't be explained by their mintages alone. Could be that a bunch of them are sitting in vaults overseas perhaps
The same could be true for any given year, including 2018. I remember buying 5 each of the 1988 and 1989 half ozers, but money got tight in 1990 and I didn't buy any more 1/2 ozers again until 1997. I think that once the coins leave the Mint, it's anybody's guess when they'll resurface, if ever. No doubt that they exist, but where?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Is there any reliable price guide anywhere that identifies which dates of the fractional gold eagles are worth a premium?
Are there any one ounce gold eagles that are worth a premium?
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Still a high pop between PCGS and NGC for this coin to get premiums to be that high. They are much rarer in 69. I might send in the two I have for grading if people are desperate enough to pay these prices.
Finally a scarcer one, after getting one each year in a 70 - well I did not start getting slabbed ones until 2002 but have the date run of earlier ones handpicked....
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
Finally a scarcer one, after getting one each year in a 70 - well I did not start getting slabbed ones until 2002 but have the date run of earlier ones handpicked....
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
Is there a reliable price guide to which dates of which fractionas are worth a premium?
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
This could be a pump and dump coin. Gold moving up could make for another low mintage year in 2019. Probably a long term hold to get a nice premium assuming it is bought at melt or close to it...
I haven't read all the posts, so this might be a repeat. To my knowledge, the earlier AGE were not collected immediately and this accounts for the lower populations in the higher or highest TPG grade. Buyers bought it as bullion and weren't as careful to preserve it as occurs now. Also, maybe (I do not know) these earlier issues are not as well made.
The 2018 might have the 2nd lowest mintage but I see no possibility that it will be worth a substantial premium longer term except maybe in whatever the highest grade turns out to be. This issue will be better preserved in much larger numbers from day 1. Also, an above average proportion of these buyers aren't necessarily predominantly collecting but buying it as a substitute for another asset. They likely don't have the same affinity as collectors of non-NCLT which means that the turnover will be higher for the supply and reduce the price from what it might otherwise be.
Regarding the comments above regarding the preservation of 2018 coinage... This issue was not expected to be good. In other words- there was no saving/ hoarding until the last moment when the mint announced production had ceased along with the sellout of inventory.
And the quality of the 2018’s was low as compared to other recent issues.
I agree this will not be a $7,000/ $10,000+ coin in MS70 like the 1991/ 1990. And there is a lot of space between the two. Same with the ms69 grades noting that the values are smaller.
None of these coins above have likely been melted. In other words the survival rates are high and the mintages are an accurate comparison to scarcity.
I agree with Teamplayer1. I would also note that with the 90 ms69 worth about $1600 and the 91 ms69 worth about $2400, there is no reason to think the 2018 ms70 can't be worth these levels or more since there are about as many 90 & 91 ms69s in the pop reports as there are 2018 ms70s. Hence with a similar supply of 2018s in ms70, it's easy to envision the demand for2018 ms70s to be similar to or exceed the demand for the lower graded 90 & 91 ms69s, particularly if they continue to be marketed aggressively by the dealers who like to push the better date $25 gold eagles.
It may be a relatively small factor, but I create gold rings from coins, and 2018 was a fairly good year for me. I created 14 rings from 2018 1/2 oz coins alone, and I know I'm not the only game in town. Like I said, it's a relatively small factor, but. . .
I've had great transactions with people like: drwstr123, CCC2010, AlanLastufka, Type2, Justlooking, zas107, StrikeOutXXX, 10point, 66Tbird, and many more!
@Teamplayer1 said:
Regarding the comments above regarding the preservation of 2018 coinage... This issue was not expected to be good. In other words- there was no saving/ hoarding until the last moment when the mint announced production had ceased along with the sellout of inventory.
And the quality of the 2018’s was low as compared to other recent issues.
I agree this will not be a $7,000/ $10,000+ coin in MS70 like the 1991/ 1990. And there is a lot of space between the two. Same with the ms69 grades noting that the values are smaller.
None of these coins above have likely been melted. In other words the survival rates are high and the mintages are an accurate comparison to scarcity.
IMO... Sleeper.
The coins don't need to be saved or hoarded to result in the outcome I described. Bullion coins are better preserved generally than in the early years even if not by every buyer and even though the quality varies somewhat from year to year.
The PCGS count in 69 for the 1991 is almost identical to the current 2018 count in 70. Given the price difference between a 69 and 70 for the 1991, there are going to be some (or many) duplicates while no one is going to resubmit a 2018 70. I also doubt that every 2018 buyer has evaluated what they bought and submitted every 70 eligible example, even assuming they can tell the difference which most cannot. I'd say it's likely the actual eventual count for the 2018 in 70 will be some multiple of what is recorded now. If the 1991 are unintentionally hoarded such as in IRAs in large numbers, I'd say it's more likely it will lose value later versus other dates matching its current price.
There is also limited correlation between the pop numbers and mintage versus the prices. As one example, the 95-W ASE doesn't sell for it's current price just because it is the lowest mintage date. As a 68 or 69, it sells for a higher multiple than it's mintage versus other "low" mintage coins in the series in 70 for a variety of reasons. The coin isn't remotely scarce as it should be apparent that there probably isn't a single other coin anywhere else with this availability selling for such a high price. It's the "key" in a very widely collected series which is otherwise composed of cheap or relatively inexpensive (by US standards) coins which means that practically any collector of the series has a reasonable chance of acquiring it, eventually.
@CaptHenway said:
Is there a reliable price guide to which dates of which fractionals are worth a premium?
Anyone? Class? Bueller?
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Looks like 32,000 with no sales in December, but 16,000 were sold in January. So, it's not clear how many 2017-dated coins were sold in January which would reduce the total for the 2018 coins.
In other words - 32,000 max. Sales were steady through the end of 2017, so there was no clear cutoff. I suspect that means some 2017-dated coins did carry over into January 2018 when a total of 15,000 were sold.
Since 15,000 were also sold in January 2019 (with no carryover from 2018), it looks as if the initial run each year has been 15,000. Therefore my estimate for the 2018-dated coins is 31,000.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
My sources tell me the Jan 2018 sales included 2017 coins. Why? Because the mint required them to purchase back dated coins to receive the current ones. The question is how many. Therefore, the mintage is likely to be under $30k, and maybe by a lot.
Of course we won’t know until the mint provides official numbers. Those that are well positioned will likely be rewarded.
Today via email to its resellers- The US mint announced that 2019 1/2 oz coins are no longer available and finished for the year.
It looks like it is happening again! This years one half ounce is now sold out and it appears the mintage/ sales figures are lower than 2018 which turned out to be a winner and still probably is.
2019 appears to be another sleeper and is currently still available from a few sources- but supply is drying up quickly.
Anybody have a final official mintage for the 2018 half eagles yet?
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
I totally understand the appeal of collecting bullion versions instead of burnished. Nearly all of the burnished issues will be handled properly whereas the more common bullion versions will not. The 2006 1 ounce BU platinum eagle is a great example, with the mintage of only 6000. sure, there are proofs and burnished coins with lower mintages but none of those are getting mishandled or melted down en mass like bullion issues may be.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
@CaptHenway said:
Anybody have a final official mintage for the 2018 half eagles yet?
Anyone?
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Comments
I've always had the feeling that with the '90, '91, and a couple of other "nearby" dates that there's something a lot of us are missing that has led to a scarcity that can't be explained by their mintages alone. Could be that a bunch of them are sitting in vaults overseas perhaps, but it's obvious that mintages don't correlate to values. It wouldn't surprise me if someday, a bunch of these early dates suddenly flooded the market. As a collector, I'll also add that because these business strike coins are NOT made specifically for collectors, that makes them more interesting—and perhaps more valuable. All that said, I'll be surprised if the 2018s ever approach values anywhere near the '90, '91, etc... Too many people are paying attention now, so every coin is going to get accounted for. That wasn't true in '91.
—Thoughts of an Ignorant Collector
I agree completely. This feeds into the dispersion idea, and why as a corollary that modern "scarcities" such as the recent $5 gold commems will likely not rise to similar values as flipper madness continues but possibly (and hopefully) slacking just a bit....
Well, just Love coins, period.
size of collector base keeps the premiums down for the modern gold comms and for the gold ladies. The speculation that drives these up initially begins to fade without collector demand.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
If I recall in Eric's book he suggests the possibility that some business strikes like the '91 $25 hide in IRA accounts.
The Apmex premium for an original roll of 2018 half-ozers over the 2019 roll pre-sale price is now $11,873. That's a premium of almost $300/coin.
I knew it would happen.
mintage on the the bulk bullion issues is a non-issue. Even the "low" mintages are high. Speculation eventually loses its luster. If ya got 'em, sell 'em.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Value isn’t just determined by supply. Demand is as much a factor in setting the value in the market. The 1/2 series is very popular with collectors.
because of its mintage number. Supply has an affect on demand.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I don't agree with this statement in that supply is not always and identical identity. Please see comments as to dispersion.
I will also drum up the often-cited examples of the 1982 and 1983 PD quarters. Literally hundreds of millions struck, but as a percentage (and even in absolute numbers) few were saved out.
Or, the 1991 $25 Eagle in Unc. which will IMO remain, and so far has tracked way above, recent $5 commems or even the more recent satin unc. special US Mint struck $50 gold - far lower numbers as far as supply but actually far more available and moreover a much lower demand in any case.
Anyway, I could go on and on.
Well, just Love coins, period.
Sleeper- Most of these bullion sales (prior to November) of the 2018 were made and dispersed as Bullion- effectively removing them from the collector market. Once the existing supply from recent sales burns out- as I believe is happening- then prices theoretically should increase. Isn’t this actually happening now?
The Apmex premium for an original roll of 2018 half-ozers over the 2019 roll pre-sale price is now $9,877 (corrected). They decreased their premium for a roll by almost $2,000 since Saturday. That's a now a premium of $247/coin.
They must not have been selling them at the higher price.
I knew it would happen.
Apmex had a quantity of rolls. They only have one left. Therefore, it’s logical to assume they are selling- and selling quite well. Apmex has been increasing the price as their inventory was decreasing- with the exception of the most recent minor adjustment.
Prices on raw and ms69 appear to still be moving up on eBay. Supply is lower as well. I have heard reports of some large transactions of 69 graded coins. Any others reports?
I was at the Indiana State Numismatic show over the weekend. There were none there.
I've always had the feeling that with the '90, '91, and a couple of other "nearby" dates that there's something a lot of us are missing that has led to a scarcity that can't be explained by their mintages alone. Could be that a bunch of them are sitting in vaults overseas perhaps
The same could be true for any given year, including 2018. I remember buying 5 each of the 1988 and 1989 half ozers, but money got tight in 1990 and I didn't buy any more 1/2 ozers again until 1997. I think that once the coins leave the Mint, it's anybody's guess when they'll resurface, if ever. No doubt that they exist, but where?
I knew it would happen.
I have heard of some large deals trading at numbers over $800 per coin. Any other reports?
Large quantities of 70s are moving for $1300+. I'm sure 69s will take off in price when it's impossible to find any 70s.
Is there any reliable price guide anywhere that identifies which dates of the fractional gold eagles are worth a premium?
Are there any one ounce gold eagles that are worth a premium?
It’s officially 2019- no more 2018 coinage can be minted.
Some MS70’s are now selling for over $1,500@ on eBay.
This Sleeper is slowly waking up. I wonder how high this one can go?
Happy New Year!
Still a high pop between PCGS and NGC for this coin to get premiums to be that high. They are much rarer in 69. I might send in the two I have for grading if people are desperate enough to pay these prices.
Finally a scarcer one, after getting one each year in a 70 - well I did not start getting slabbed ones until 2002 but have the date run of earlier ones handpicked....
Well, just Love coins, period.
Finally a scarcer one, after getting one each year in a 70 - well I did not start getting slabbed ones until 2002 but have the date run of earlier ones handpicked....
Well, just Love coins, period.
Sold all mine. This has been a great coin for me. It'd be nice (for me) if the 2017's also see final mintage below 35k.
Raw coins are now selling for over $900 on ebay with ms70’s quickly selling near $1,500.
Is there a reliable price guide to which dates of which fractionas are worth a premium?
Very few 2018 1/2 oz sightings at the FUN convention. Prices continue to advance.
This could be a pump and dump coin. Gold moving up could make for another low mintage year in 2019. Probably a long term hold to get a nice premium assuming it is bought at melt or close to it...
I haven't read all the posts, so this might be a repeat. To my knowledge, the earlier AGE were not collected immediately and this accounts for the lower populations in the higher or highest TPG grade. Buyers bought it as bullion and weren't as careful to preserve it as occurs now. Also, maybe (I do not know) these earlier issues are not as well made.
The 2018 might have the 2nd lowest mintage but I see no possibility that it will be worth a substantial premium longer term except maybe in whatever the highest grade turns out to be. This issue will be better preserved in much larger numbers from day 1. Also, an above average proportion of these buyers aren't necessarily predominantly collecting but buying it as a substitute for another asset. They likely don't have the same affinity as collectors of non-NCLT which means that the turnover will be higher for the supply and reduce the price from what it might otherwise be.
Regarding the comments above regarding the preservation of 2018 coinage... This issue was not expected to be good. In other words- there was no saving/ hoarding until the last moment when the mint announced production had ceased along with the sellout of inventory.
And the quality of the 2018’s was low as compared to other recent issues.
I agree this will not be a $7,000/ $10,000+ coin in MS70 like the 1991/ 1990. And there is a lot of space between the two. Same with the ms69 grades noting that the values are smaller.
None of these coins above have likely been melted. In other words the survival rates are high and the mintages are an accurate comparison to scarcity.
IMO... Sleeper.
I agree with Teamplayer1. I would also note that with the 90 ms69 worth about $1600 and the 91 ms69 worth about $2400, there is no reason to think the 2018 ms70 can't be worth these levels or more since there are about as many 90 & 91 ms69s in the pop reports as there are 2018 ms70s. Hence with a similar supply of 2018s in ms70, it's easy to envision the demand for2018 ms70s to be similar to or exceed the demand for the lower graded 90 & 91 ms69s, particularly if they continue to be marketed aggressively by the dealers who like to push the better date $25 gold eagles.
It may be a relatively small factor, but I create gold rings from coins, and 2018 was a fairly good year for me. I created 14 rings from 2018 1/2 oz coins alone, and I know I'm not the only game in town. Like I said, it's a relatively small factor, but. . .
That looks pretty cool!
The coins don't need to be saved or hoarded to result in the outcome I described. Bullion coins are better preserved generally than in the early years even if not by every buyer and even though the quality varies somewhat from year to year.
The PCGS count in 69 for the 1991 is almost identical to the current 2018 count in 70. Given the price difference between a 69 and 70 for the 1991, there are going to be some (or many) duplicates while no one is going to resubmit a 2018 70. I also doubt that every 2018 buyer has evaluated what they bought and submitted every 70 eligible example, even assuming they can tell the difference which most cannot. I'd say it's likely the actual eventual count for the 2018 in 70 will be some multiple of what is recorded now. If the 1991 are unintentionally hoarded such as in IRAs in large numbers, I'd say it's more likely it will lose value later versus other dates matching its current price.
There is also limited correlation between the pop numbers and mintage versus the prices. As one example, the 95-W ASE doesn't sell for it's current price just because it is the lowest mintage date. As a 68 or 69, it sells for a higher multiple than it's mintage versus other "low" mintage coins in the series in 70 for a variety of reasons. The coin isn't remotely scarce as it should be apparent that there probably isn't a single other coin anywhere else with this availability selling for such a high price. It's the "key" in a very widely collected series which is otherwise composed of cheap or relatively inexpensive (by US standards) coins which means that practically any collector of the series has a reasonable chance of acquiring it, eventually.
Here's an NGC MS70 BIN for $1375 (or Make Offer): ebay.com/itm/2018-25-1-2-oz-Gold-American-Eagle-NGC-MS70-2nd-lowest-25-mintage
Several raw pieces are around $900.
Anyone? Class? Bueller?
Anyone? Class? Bueller?
I'd have to say that the best guide would be completed ebay sales.
I knew it would happen.
Not really, mintage numbers (not up todate) offer a fair reflection of prices
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Any new sales data?
Looks like 32,000 with no sales in December, but 16,000 were sold in January. So, it's not clear how many 2017-dated coins were sold in January which would reduce the total for the 2018 coins.
In other words - 32,000 max. Sales were steady through the end of 2017, so there was no clear cutoff. I suspect that means some 2017-dated coins did carry over into January 2018 when a total of 15,000 were sold.
Since 15,000 were also sold in January 2019 (with no carryover from 2018), it looks as if the initial run each year has been 15,000. Therefore my estimate for the 2018-dated coins is 31,000.
I knew it would happen.
Coins still drying up.
My sources tell me the Jan 2018 sales included 2017 coins. Why? Because the mint required them to purchase back dated coins to receive the current ones. The question is how many. Therefore, the mintage is likely to be under $30k, and maybe by a lot.
Of course we won’t know until the mint provides official numbers. Those that are well positioned will likely be rewarded.
Today via email to its resellers- The US mint announced that 2019 1/2 oz coins are no longer available and finished for the year.
It looks like it is happening again! This years one half ounce is now sold out and it appears the mintage/ sales figures are lower than 2018 which turned out to be a winner and still probably is.
2019 appears to be another sleeper and is currently still available from a few sources- but supply is drying up quickly.
Anybody have a final official mintage for the 2018 half eagles yet?
I totally understand the appeal of collecting bullion versions instead of burnished. Nearly all of the burnished issues will be handled properly whereas the more common bullion versions will not. The 2006 1 ounce BU platinum eagle is a great example, with the mintage of only 6000. sure, there are proofs and burnished coins with lower mintages but none of those are getting mishandled or melted down en mass like bullion issues may be.
Anyone?
To follow up on Capt's request, does anyone have the final mintages for both the 2018 AND the 2019 half eagles?
I knew it would happen.
Ughh ban this guy! He’s worse than an STD