2018 1/2 ounce AGE: 2nd lowest mintage?

It is my understanding that the US Mint stopped producing and selling the 2018 1/2 ounce bullion coin. The coin sales total per the US Mint for 2018 is 30,000 which also includes leftover 2017 coins. Therefore, the actual 2018 mintage will be less than 30,000 making this the 2nd lowest mintage for the entire series after the very valuable 1991. Thoughts?

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Comments

  • HemisphericalHemispherical Posts: 6,398 ✭✭✭✭✭

    2018 1/2 oz AGE at 15,000 oz or 30,000 coins, still need the rest of November and December numbers.

    2017 1/2 oz AGE at 18,500 oz or 37,000 coins.

    1991 1/2 oz AGE at 19,500 oz or 38,000 coins.

    US Mint: https://www.usmint.gov/about/production-sales-figures/bullion-sales

  • I was told all US Mint Distributers of the bullion gold eagles received a letter from the US Mint that they were out of 1/2 oz coins and that the Mint would NOT be striking any more. Can anyone confirm this?

  • The above link shows 1991 year dated sales/ mintage. That link for actual year dated mintage figures only provides data through 2016.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 26,902 ✭✭✭✭✭

    1 oz. burnished eagles top the list for lowest mintage AGEs.

    AGE mintages trough 2016

    If talking only half oz. eagles, there are number of proofs with less than 30K.

    All debt-based consumption steals from the future to gratify the present. It is tomorrow’s consumption pulled forward. It signs a perpetual check against an overdrawn future.

  • The data for 1991 below is wrong (see annual production figures). The below link provides monthly sales data- and it does not break out the dates of the coins sold. In other words- January sales frequently include leftovers of coins minted from the prior year. We will not know actual production figures for the given year until about two years afterwards. What we do know is that the mintage cannot be higher than the sales number if the mint is sold out before the year ends- as is the case this year with the 1/2 oz coins.

    Can anyone confirm the accuracy of my statements?

    @Hemispherical said:
    2018 1/2 oz AGE at 15,000 oz or 30,000 coins, still need the rest of November and December numbers.

    2017 1/2 oz AGE at 18,500 oz or 37,000 coins.

    1991 1/2 oz AGE at 19,500 oz or 38,000 coins.

    US Mint: https://www.usmint.gov/about/production-sales-figures/bullion-sales

  • @derryb said:
    1 oz. burnished eagles top the list for lowest mintage AGEs.

    AGE mintages trough 2016

    If talking only half oz. eagles, there are number of proofs with less than 30K.

    I am referring to the bullion coins only. The burnished coins are always made in smaller quantities and are made for collectors. Comparing the bullion coins to the burnished coins is like comparing mint state coins to proofs as proofs always have lower mintages.

    For example, 1991 1/2 oz coins are the lowest bullion mintage (24,100) half ounce gold coin and are worth between $2,500 and $7,000 (ms69-70) even though most (all?) burnished gold coins have lower mintages and are worth less. It’s the same with the proofs. In other words they are apples, oranges, and grapefruits (bullion ms, burnished ms, and proof).

  • derrybderryb Posts: 26,902 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Would be clearer if you referred to them as "business strike" coins. All AGE's are bullion coins, authorized by congress under the Gold Bullion Coin Act of 1985

    All debt-based consumption steals from the future to gratify the present. It is tomorrow’s consumption pulled forward. It signs a perpetual check against an overdrawn future.

  • HemisphericalHemispherical Posts: 6,398 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Teamplayer1

    Select:

    -American Eagle

    -By-Month (this is key)

    -Year (pick a year)

    I know it looks backward but that is the way they made it.

    It will show all data (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) by month from 1986 to November 2018.

    The link you provided is a basic summary and is updated annually and is a year behind.

  • 92vette92vette Posts: 411 ✭✭✭

    @Teamplayer1 said:
    The data for 1991 below is wrong (see annual production figures). The below link provides monthly sales data- and it does not break out the dates of the coins sold. In other words- January sales frequently include leftovers of coins minted from the prior year. We will not know actual production figures for the given year until about two years afterwards. What we do know is that the mintage cannot be higher than the sales number if the mint is sold out before the year ends- as is the case this year with the 1/2 oz coins.

    Can anyone confirm the accuracy of my statements?

    @Hemispherical said:
    2018 1/2 oz AGE at 15,000 oz or 30,000 coins, still need the rest of November and December numbers.

    2017 1/2 oz AGE at 18,500 oz or 37,000 coins.

    1991 1/2 oz AGE at 19,500 oz or 38,000 coins.

    US Mint: https://www.usmint.gov/about/production-sales-figures/bullion-sales

    It's not true that the mintage number cannot be higher than the sales number. I ran a spreadsheet last year and found plenty of years with mintage higher than sales for the 1/2 oz bullion AGE. It all depends on when the mint 'books' sales and I doubt the public is privy. That said, it's entirely possible that the '17 and '18 could finish with mintage below sales.

  • 92vette92vette Posts: 411 ✭✭✭

    Years with mintage higher than sales: '86, '92, '93, '97, '99, '00, '03, '06, '08, '10, '11

  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 26,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Read my post.

    As they say in the wallpaper trade, "How's it hanging?"
  • derrybderryb Posts: 26,902 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If I were making my decision on AGE purchases based on mintage, I would stick with the graded 1 oz. burnished collector versions.

    All debt-based consumption steals from the future to gratify the present. It is tomorrow’s consumption pulled forward. It signs a perpetual check against an overdrawn future.

  • 92vette92vette Posts: 411 ✭✭✭

    Capt,
    Are you saying the mint, since 2003 ,melts unsold Eagle bullion at calendar year's end so that it cannot be sold into the next calendar year?

  • derrybderryb Posts: 26,902 ✭✭✭✭✭

    We do know that the AGE proofs and collector versions remain available into the next year, if they have not sold out.

    All debt-based consumption steals from the future to gratify the present. It is tomorrow’s consumption pulled forward. It signs a perpetual check against an overdrawn future.

  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 26,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    That was the rule put into place in 2003. Whether any subsequent Mint Director or Acting Director changed the policy I could not say.

    Try asking the Mint what they do. Good luck getting a straight answer out of them.

    As they say in the wallpaper trade, "How's it hanging?"
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 411 ✭✭✭

    I don't think that's the policy anymore. Coin Update will sometimes run stories in January about AP orders being fulfilled with remaining inventory of prior-year coins:
    http://news.coinupdate.com/us-mint-gold-and-silver-bullion-sales-fall-short-of-prior-year-3135/

  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 26,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @92vette said:
    I don't think that's the policy anymore. Coin Update will sometimes run stories in January about AP orders being fulfilled with remaining inventory of prior-year coins:
    http://news.coinupdate.com/us-mint-gold-and-silver-bullion-sales-fall-short-of-prior-year-3135/

    Interesting.

    As they say in the wallpaper trade, "How's it hanging?"
  • @CaptHenway said:
    Back when I was still working at Harlan J. Berk in Chicago and kept track of this stuff, the December sales in any given calendar year were almost always pre-orders for the new coins of the NEXT calendar year, so that the distributors could pick up their coins on January 2 and immediately ship orders to dealers like us that had pre-ordered rolls from the distributor. We always had a standing order for two rolls of the one ounce golds and a solid roll of each fractional, and then we just re-ordered one ouncers as needed. We also ordered two solid cases of the silvers, with the understanding that we would get one from the initial delivery and the second one when the distributor had enough to go around.

    Carry overs of old date coins were rare. Then in 2002 the Mint added a new distributor late in the year, and since he knew that future allocations when supplies were scarce were based upon previous sales, he ordered a million silver eagles and offered them to dealers virtually at cost just to get established in the supply system. The Mint struck another million silver eagles to replace them, but none of the distributors ordered any because the market was saturated with the cheap loss leaders.

    Just before Jan. 1, 2003, the Mint informed the distributors that their initial orders for 2003 silver eagles would be filled with 40% 2002-dated coins until the 2002 coins were gone. No option to refuse the 2002 coins. The distributors were screwed, as they had pre-sold 2003-dated coins to dealers like us and they could not deliver 2002 coins. They had to re-order just to get more 2003's, and in doing so got more 2002's that they had to eat. Our distributor was offering cases of 2002's below cost just to get rid of them. It was a mess.

    Then in January of 2003 the Mint had the official release of the Illinois Statehood Quarter at the State of Illinois Building two blocks from our store, and Harlan hosted a meet-and-greet reception for the Mint Director in our Library afterwards. Several local collectors came over from the ceremony, as well as Mike Pesha of Gold Dust Coins in Chicago. Gold Dust was a sub-distributor for the official distributor down in Springfield.

    Pesha told the Director about the fiasco over the silver Eagles, and she said that this was the first she had heard of it. I was there and believed her. She returned to D.C. that evening and the next day the Mint announced that from then on the Mint would melt leftover bullion coins after the end of the calendar year.

    This is why the Mint stops production of the current calendar year in November after giving distributors one last chance to order, and then begins production of the next calendar year coins. It also sells them for delivery after Jan. 1.

    So, the Mint sold 3,000 gold half eagles in Dec. of 2017 and 30,000 in Jan,-Nov. of 2018. The likely final mintage is 33,000, quite a bit more than the 24,100 of 1991 but still legitimately scarce.

    TD

    Thank you! How come H Berk is not listed as a Direct US Mint gold Distributer?

    Us Mint Gold Distributers:
    The vendors, their location, and the bullion coinage the Mint has authorized each to purchase are:
    ➤  A-Mark Precious Metals; Santa Monica, California; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤  Jack Hunt Coin Broker; Buffalo, New York ; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Coins 'N Things; Bridgewater, Massachusetts; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Fidelitrade; Wilmington, Delaware; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Dillon Gage Inc.; Dallas, Texas; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Manfra, Tordella & Brookes, Inc., MTB; New York City; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ American Precious Metals Exchange, APMEX; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ The Gold Center; Springfield, Illinois; silver only.
    ➤ ScotiaMocatta; New York City; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Deutsche Bank AG; Frankfurt, Germany; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤  Bayerische Landesbank; Munich, Germany; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Tanaka Kinkkinzoku Kogyo K.K.; Tokyo, Japan; gold and platinum
    https://www.coinworld.com/news/precious-metals/2018/02/us-mint-has-12-authorized-purchasers-for-bullion.all.html

  • HemisphericalHemispherical Posts: 6,398 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Source: https://catalog.usmint.gov/coin-programs/bullion-authorized-purchasers.html

    I think one or two may have dropped out.

  • @92vette said:

    @Teamplayer1 said:
    The data for 1991 below is wrong (see annual production figures). The below link provides monthly sales data- and it does not break out the dates of the coins sold. In other words- January sales frequently include leftovers of coins minted from the prior year. We will not know actual production figures for the given year until about two years afterwards. What we do know is that the mintage cannot be higher than the sales number if the mint is sold out before the year ends- as is the case this year with the 1/2 oz coins.

    Can anyone confirm the accuracy of my statements?

    @Hemispherical said:
    2018 1/2 oz AGE at 15,000 oz or 30,000 coins, still need the rest of November and December numbers.

    2017 1/2 oz AGE at 18,500 oz or 37,000 coins.

    1991 1/2 oz AGE at 19,500 oz or 38,000 coins.

    US Mint: https://www.usmint.gov/about/production-sales-figures/bullion-sales

    It's not true that the mintage number cannot be higher than the sales number. I ran a spreadsheet last year and found plenty of years with mintage higher than sales for the 1/2 oz bullion AGE. It all depends on when the mint 'books' sales and I doubt the public is privy. That said, it's entirely possible that the '17 and '18 could finish with mintage below sales.

    I qualified my statement that the mintage number cannot be higher than the sales number “IF THE MINT IS SOLD OUT BEFORE THE YEAR ENDS”. The mint sent a letter to their distributors that they were sold out in early November and would not be producing anymore coins. Therefore, if the Mint makes sales in December for 2019 coinage the sales in 2018 will be greater than the mintage.

    The questions are-

    1. Were the 3,000 1/2 sold in 2017 dated (2017 or 2018). Can anyone confirm that the Mint even sells coins in the end of the year for the next year?
    2. Were the 16,000 1/2 coins sold in January 2018 all 2018 coins or could there have been leftovers from 2017 in the total?
    3. Can anyone confirm the letter that the Mint is sold out of 1/2 ounce coins and that they will not make more?

    It appears that the 2018 1/2 oz coins will be the second lowest regular issue 1/2 ounce gold eagle. This may be significant because these coins are marketed and collected separately from the burnished and proof coins- which would explain why they are more valuable- There are numerous issues of the regular issue bullion coins that are worth more than the proofs while having higher mintages than the proofs (or burnished when applicable).

  • @92vette said:
    I don't think that's the policy anymore. Coin Update will sometimes run stories in January about AP orders being fulfilled with remaining inventory of prior-year coins:
    http://news.coinupdate.com/us-mint-gold-and-silver-bullion-sales-fall-short-of-prior-year-3135/

    Thank you! Based on this article the Mint only takes orders for the regular issue bullion coins in January. Therefore the 3,000 1/2 oz coins sold in December of 2017 could not be dated 2018.

    Now we need to find out if the 16,000 January 2018 1/2 oz sales could include leftover 2017 coins.

  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 26,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Teamplayer1 said:

    @CaptHenway said:
    Back when I was still working at Harlan J. Berk in Chicago and kept track of this stuff, the December sales in any given calendar year were almost always pre-orders for the new coins of the NEXT calendar year, so that the distributors could pick up their coins on January 2 and immediately ship orders to dealers like us that had pre-ordered rolls from the distributor. We always had a standing order for two rolls of the one ounce golds and a solid roll of each fractional, and then we just re-ordered one ouncers as needed. We also ordered two solid cases of the silvers, with the understanding that we would get one from the initial delivery and the second one when the distributor had enough to go around.

    Carry overs of old date coins were rare. Then in 2002 the Mint added a new distributor late in the year, and since he knew that future allocations when supplies were scarce were based upon previous sales, he ordered a million silver eagles and offered them to dealers virtually at cost just to get established in the supply system. The Mint struck another million silver eagles to replace them, but none of the distributors ordered any because the market was saturated with the cheap loss leaders.

    Just before Jan. 1, 2003, the Mint informed the distributors that their initial orders for 2003 silver eagles would be filled with 40% 2002-dated coins until the 2002 coins were gone. No option to refuse the 2002 coins. The distributors were screwed, as they had pre-sold 2003-dated coins to dealers like us and they could not deliver 2002 coins. They had to re-order just to get more 2003's, and in doing so got more 2002's that they had to eat. Our distributor was offering cases of 2002's below cost just to get rid of them. It was a mess.

    Then in January of 2003 the Mint had the official release of the Illinois Statehood Quarter at the State of Illinois Building two blocks from our store, and Harlan hosted a meet-and-greet reception for the Mint Director in our Library afterwards. Several local collectors came over from the ceremony, as well as Mike Pesha of Gold Dust Coins in Chicago. Gold Dust was a sub-distributor for the official distributor down in Springfield.

    Pesha told the Director about the fiasco over the silver Eagles, and she said that this was the first she had heard of it. I was there and believed her. She returned to D.C. that evening and the next day the Mint announced that from then on the Mint would melt leftover bullion coins after the end of the calendar year.

    This is why the Mint stops production of the current calendar year in November after giving distributors one last chance to order, and then begins production of the next calendar year coins. It also sells them for delivery after Jan. 1.

    So, the Mint sold 3,000 gold half eagles in Dec. of 2017 and 30,000 in Jan,-Nov. of 2018. The likely final mintage is 33,000, quite a bit more than the 24,100 of 1991 but still legitimately scarce.

    TD

    Thank you! How come H Berk is not listed as a Direct US Mint gold Distributer?

    Us Mint Gold Distributers:
    The vendors, their location, and the bullion coinage the Mint has authorized each to purchase are:
    ➤  A-Mark Precious Metals; Santa Monica, California; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤  Jack Hunt Coin Broker; Buffalo, New York ; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Coins 'N Things; Bridgewater, Massachusetts; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Fidelitrade; Wilmington, Delaware; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Dillon Gage Inc.; Dallas, Texas; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Manfra, Tordella & Brookes, Inc., MTB; New York City; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ American Precious Metals Exchange, APMEX; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ The Gold Center; Springfield, Illinois; silver only.
    ➤ ScotiaMocatta; New York City; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Deutsche Bank AG; Frankfurt, Germany; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤  Bayerische Landesbank; Munich, Germany; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Tanaka Kinkkinzoku Kogyo K.K.; Tokyo, Japan; gold and platinum
    https://www.coinworld.com/news/precious-metals/2018/02/us-mint-has-12-authorized-purchasers-for-bullion.all.html

    I never said that Harlan J. Berk, Ltd. was an official U.S. Mint distributor. Whereever did you get that idea?

    The company is a major retail operation that buys U.S. Mint bullion from one or more official distributor(s).

    As they say in the wallpaper trade, "How's it hanging?"
  • @CaptHenway said:

    @Teamplayer1 said:

    @CaptHenway said:
    Back when I was still working at Harlan J. Berk in Chicago and kept track of this stuff, the December sales in any given calendar year were almost always pre-orders for the new coins of the NEXT calendar year, so that the distributors could pick up their coins on January 2 and immediately ship orders to dealers like us that had pre-ordered rolls from the distributor. We always had a standing order for two rolls of the one ounce golds and a solid roll of each fractional, and then we just re-ordered one ouncers as needed. We also ordered two solid cases of the silvers, with the understanding that we would get one from the initial delivery and the second one when the distributor had enough to go around.

    Carry overs of old date coins were rare. Then in 2002 the Mint added a new distributor late in the year, and since he knew that future allocations when supplies were scarce were based upon previous sales, he ordered a million silver eagles and offered them to dealers virtually at cost just to get established in the supply system. The Mint struck another million silver eagles to replace them, but none of the distributors ordered any because the market was saturated with the cheap loss leaders.

    Just before Jan. 1, 2003, the Mint informed the distributors that their initial orders for 2003 silver eagles would be filled with 40% 2002-dated coins until the 2002 coins were gone. No option to refuse the 2002 coins. The distributors were screwed, as they had pre-sold 2003-dated coins to dealers like us and they could not deliver 2002 coins. They had to re-order just to get more 2003's, and in doing so got more 2002's that they had to eat. Our distributor was offering cases of 2002's below cost just to get rid of them. It was a mess.

    Then in January of 2003 the Mint had the official release of the Illinois Statehood Quarter at the State of Illinois Building two blocks from our store, and Harlan hosted a meet-and-greet reception for the Mint Director in our Library afterwards. Several local collectors came over from the ceremony, as well as Mike Pesha of Gold Dust Coins in Chicago. Gold Dust was a sub-distributor for the official distributor down in Springfield.

    Pesha told the Director about the fiasco over the silver Eagles, and she said that this was the first she had heard of it. I was there and believed her. She returned to D.C. that evening and the next day the Mint announced that from then on the Mint would melt leftover bullion coins after the end of the calendar year.

    This is why the Mint stops production of the current calendar year in November after giving distributors one last chance to order, and then begins production of the next calendar year coins. It also sells them for delivery after Jan. 1.

    So, the Mint sold 3,000 gold half eagles in Dec. of 2017 and 30,000 in Jan,-Nov. of 2018. The likely final mintage is 33,000, quite a bit more than the 24,100 of 1991 but still legitimately scarce.

    TD

    Thank you! How come H Berk is not listed as a Direct US Mint gold Distributer?

    Us Mint Gold Distributers:
    The vendors, their location, and the bullion coinage the Mint has authorized each to purchase are:
    ➤  A-Mark Precious Metals; Santa Monica, California; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤  Jack Hunt Coin Broker; Buffalo, New York ; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Coins 'N Things; Bridgewater, Massachusetts; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Fidelitrade; Wilmington, Delaware; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Dillon Gage Inc.; Dallas, Texas; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Manfra, Tordella & Brookes, Inc., MTB; New York City; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ American Precious Metals Exchange, APMEX; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ The Gold Center; Springfield, Illinois; silver only.
    ➤ ScotiaMocatta; New York City; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Deutsche Bank AG; Frankfurt, Germany; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤  Bayerische Landesbank; Munich, Germany; silver, gold, platinum.
    ➤ Tanaka Kinkkinzoku Kogyo K.K.; Tokyo, Japan; gold and platinum
    https://www.coinworld.com/news/precious-metals/2018/02/us-mint-has-12-authorized-purchasers-for-bullion.all.html

    I never said that Harlan J. Berk, Ltd. was an official U.S. Mint distributor. Whereever did you get that idea?

    The company is a major retail operation that buys U.S. Mint bullion from one or more official distributor(s).

    Your right you didn’t. I misinterpreted your post. Sorry.

    In any event, I am not sure your information is accurate regarding US Mint sales and Mintages because your firm was not a US Mint distributor. Your orders were to a 3rd party and did not impact when the mint booked sales.

  • 92vette92vette Posts: 411 ✭✭✭

    @Teamplayer1 said:

    @92vette said:

    @Teamplayer1 said:
    The data for 1991 below is wrong (see annual production figures). The below link provides monthly sales data- and it does not break out the dates of the coins sold. In other words- January sales frequently include leftovers of coins minted from the prior year. We will not know actual production figures for the given year until about two years afterwards. What we do know is that the mintage cannot be higher than the sales number if the mint is sold out before the year ends- as is the case this year with the 1/2 oz coins.

    Can anyone confirm the accuracy of my statements?

    @Hemispherical said:
    2018 1/2 oz AGE at 15,000 oz or 30,000 coins, still need the rest of November and December numbers.

    2017 1/2 oz AGE at 18,500 oz or 37,000 coins.

    1991 1/2 oz AGE at 19,500 oz or 38,000 coins.

    US Mint: https://www.usmint.gov/about/production-sales-figures/bullion-sales

    It's not true that the mintage number cannot be higher than the sales number. I ran a spreadsheet last year and found plenty of years with mintage higher than sales for the 1/2 oz bullion AGE. It all depends on when the mint 'books' sales and I doubt the public is privy. That said, it's entirely possible that the '17 and '18 could finish with mintage below sales.

    I qualified my statement that the mintage number cannot be higher than the sales number “IF THE MINT IS SOLD OUT BEFORE THE YEAR ENDS”. The mint sent a letter to their distributors that they were sold out in early November and would not be producing anymore coins. Therefore, if the Mint makes sales in December for 2019 coinage the sales in 2018 will be greater than the mintage.

    The questions are-

    1. Were the 3,000 1/2 sold in 2017 dated (2017 or 2018). Can anyone confirm that the Mint even sells coins in the end of the year for the next year?
    2. Were the 16,000 1/2 coins sold in January 2018 all 2018 coins or could there have been leftovers from 2017 in the total?
    3. Can anyone confirm the letter that the Mint is sold out of 1/2 ounce coins and that they will not make more?

    It appears that the 2018 1/2 oz coins will be the second lowest regular issue 1/2 ounce gold eagle. This may be significant because these coins are marketed and collected separately from the burnished and proof coins- which would explain why they are more valuable- There are numerous issues of the regular issue bullion coins that are worth more than the proofs while having higher mintages than the proofs (or burnished when applicable).

    This is a topic I'm interested in because I bet heavily last year that the '17's would end up a low mintage, and smaller bet this year that the '18s would be low also. I combed and could find neither any info that the '17s sold out early, nor that the mint fulfilled orders in January '18 for any leftover '17's. As the link I provided shows, the mint have done this as recently as 2014. Unfortunately the mint these days is in no hurry at all to provide final mintages; there are coins now 5 years in the can that where finals still haven't been provided.

  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 26,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Just spoke with my old contact at one of the official Distributors. The Mint's policy has indeed changed several times since I retired in 2010.

    On all bullion product lines, they no longer pre-sell in December. The Mint asks the distributors for estimates as to what they expect to order after Jan. 1, and the Mint pre-strikes coins to meet this expected demand. No order is finalized until after Jan. 1, when the sales are booked and physical deliveries begin around Jan. 7 or later.

    In some recent years the Mint has forced the distributors to take the old date coins at full premium as part of their first delivery of the new date coins. The contact says that they don't like this but have no choice. In other years there has been no carry over.

    In January of 2018 the distributors were forced to take some 2017 fractionals (I do not know which sizes or the numbers of each) along with their 2018 fractionals, but at a reduced premium than they were charging for the 2018 fractionals. That sounds to me like there were a lot of leftover 2017 fractionals, but that is speculation on my part. It also means that the 3,000 gold half eagles sold in December of 2017 were not 2018 coins.

    The Mint has no more 2018 fractionals for sale. It still has 2018 one ounce gold eagles for sale.

    TD

    As they say in the wallpaper trade, "How's it hanging?"
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 15,570 ✭✭✭✭

    Why would I not want the 2006-W half oz. coins at around HALF the mintage of 2018? Those 2006-W still sell (12 years later) at around only 50% over melt in 70 grade! In 25 years when one tries to buy coins in this series, and there are half as many 2006-W in the world as compared to 2018, why will anyone care that the Mint sold the W coins directly to collectors while the bullion coins went to a small group of dealers first? Won’t the W coins be about twice as hard to find with about half the mintage.

    What am I missing?

    Wondercoin.

    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 411 ✭✭✭

    @wondercoin said:
    Why would I not want the 2006-W half oz. coins at around HALF the mintage of 2018? Those 2006-W still sell (12 years later) at around only 50% over melt in 70 grade! In 25 years when one tries to buy coins in this series, and there are half as many 2006-W in the world as compared to 2018, why will anyone care that the Mint sold the W coins directly to collectors while the bullion coins went to a small group of dealers first? Won’t the W coins be about twice as hard to find with about half the mintage.

    What am I missing?

    Wondercoin.

    Date collecting must be more popular than mintmark collecting. Why else would the tougher-date 1/2 oz AGE bullions command so much more than the unc-w's despite being much more populous?

  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 5,052 ✭✭✭✭

    Wondercoin: the key is dipersion. The burnished series 2006-08 plat and gold really did not seem to "hit" with the general collector and also seems to be held in large numbers by many people...

    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 26,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There are regular bullion issues that you can collect by year and denomination, and there are the special issues that you can collect as a separate series. The Mint shot itself in the foot with the first special issue, the 1995-W silver Proof with a mintage of only 30,125, that you could only get by buying a gold set for about $1000 with the "free" special issue in it. That limited the number of potential sets of special issues to that number for all time.

    As they say in the wallpaper trade, "How's it hanging?"
  • @CaptHenway said:
    Just spoke with my old contact at one of the official Distributors. The Mint's policy has indeed changed several times since I retired in 2010.

    On all bullion product lines, they no longer pre-sell in December. The Mint asks the distributors for estimates as to what they expect to order after Jan. 1, and the Mint pre-strikes coins to meet this expected demand. No order is finalized until after Jan. 1, when the sales are booked and physical deliveries begin around Jan. 7 or later.

    In some recent years the Mint has forced the distributors to take the old date coins at full premium as part of their first delivery of the new date coins. The contact says that they don't like this but have no choice. In other years there has been no carry over.

    In January of 2018 the distributors were forced to take some 2017 fractionals (I do not know which sizes or the numbers of each) along with their 2018 fractionals, but at a reduced premium than they were charging for the 2018 fractionals. That sounds to me like there were a lot of leftover 2017 fractionals, but that is speculation on my part. It also means that the 3,000 gold half eagles sold in December of 2017 were not 2018 coins.

    The Mint has no more 2018 fractionals for sale. It still has 2018 one ounce gold eagles for sale.

    TD

    Thank you for confirming my suspicion that 2017 US Mint sales cannot include 2018 coins.

    Also, you have confirmed that the US Mint likely sold fractional 1/2 oz coins dated 2017 in January of 2018. This is significant because 16,000 1/2 oz coins were sold in January of 2018.

    Therefore, the highest the 2018 mintage can be is 30,000 and it’s possible that the mintage is close to or below the series key- the 1991 which is worth between $2,500 and $6,500 in grades 69 and 70.

  • @wondercoin said:
    Why would I not want the 2006-W half oz. coins at around HALF the mintage of 2018? Those 2006-W still sell (12 years later) at around only 50% over melt in 70 grade! In 25 years when one tries to buy coins in this series, and there are half as many 2006-W in the world as compared to 2018, why will anyone care that the Mint sold the W coins directly to collectors while the bullion coins went to a small group of dealers first? Won’t the W coins be about twice as hard to find with about half the mintage.

    What am I missing?

    Wondercoin.

    Sir, these coins are marketed and collected by series. The regular issue mint state bullion coins are a separate set from the proofs and burnished coins and the keys are valued relative to those in the set.

    This is similar to classic coins. There are many proof coins with dramatically lower mintages than their business strike counterparts of the same date that are worth dramatically less.

    If rarity was all that mattered the first spouse coins would be much, much higher.

    The issue is the combination of supply and demand (not one without the other).

    Using price as the arbiter there is much more demand for the scarce dates of the more common business Strike bullion issues than of the collector coin counterparts (Burnushed and proof).

    Bottom line: apples and oranges.

  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 26,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I would rather say that it is possible that the Mint sold 2017 half eagles in January of 2018, as we have no means yet of assessing the probability that this happened.

    As they say in the wallpaper trade, "How's it hanging?"
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 15,570 ✭✭✭✭

    “Bottom line: apples and oranges”

    I respectfully disagree. It’s all about promotion. A few years back when the 2006-W $25 GE were being “promoted”, I believe they reached around $1,600 - $1,800/coin (raw) - right up there at the time with the 1991’s. In fact, the 2006-W $25 was included in the Top 100 Moderns set by the top “braintrust” at PCGS, while the 1991 $25 GE just missed the cut! Promotion ended on the 2006-W $25 and prices on the coin were essentially cut in half. It still has its super low mintage going for it - promotion or no promotion. So, time will tell what happens with these W coins in the series.

    As always, just my 2 cents.

    Wondercoin.

    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 26,902 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The W burnished AGEs are a popular subset for collectors, especially since they generally have low mintages.

    All debt-based consumption steals from the future to gratify the present. It is tomorrow’s consumption pulled forward. It signs a perpetual check against an overdrawn future.

  • 92vette92vette Posts: 411 ✭✭✭

    The better date bullion AGE's also enjoyed a promotion a few years back which took about 8 different dates well over $1200 ea. with the '91 going to about $3100. The bullion AGE's prices today have held up way better than the unc-w's. The 'key' $25 unc-w, the 2007, is comparable in price with the 3rd-place or 4th place bullion $25 AGE. The situation is similar with the ASE's, bullion vs. burnished leading me to believe, again, that dates not mintmarks rule. With respect of course.

  • I saw that 3 2018 $25 Pcgs ms70s sold on eBay for over $1300. The last sale price was on the day the MINT announced it shut down production on the 2018 1/2 oz - $801. That’s a pretty significant move. The grading services has only been designating about 30% of thes coins as ms70s which is unusually low for recent 1/2 gold eagles. I think we’ll see quite a large premium on 70s versus 69’s as a consequence.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,547 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I noticed the other day that a roll of MintDirect 1/2 oz 2018 AGEs from Apmex was about $6,500 over the pre-sale price of the 2019 1/2 ozers. Now, the premium over a 2019 roll is $7,918.

    MintDirect is Apmex assurance that the coins haven't been picked-over.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • @Gradedmoderncoins said:
    I saw that 3 2018 $25 Pcgs ms70s sold on eBay for over $1300. The last sale price was on the day the MINT announced it shut down production on the 2018 1/2 oz - $801. That’s a pretty significant move. The grading services has only been designating about 30% of thes coins as ms70s which is unusually low for recent 1/2 gold eagles. I think we’ll see quite a large premium on 70s versus 69’s as a consequence.

    Interesting. There is a large price gap in MS70 between $1,300 (2018 1/2) and $6,500 (1991 1/2). The 69 price differential is wide too, although not that dramatic ($800+ to $2,700).

  • The 1990 $25 is a $1500-1600 coin in ms69 and that has a higher mintage than the 2018, so once these coins are distributed into long-term holders' hands so their is minimal available supply, I would imagine the 2018 could get to a similar or perhaps even higher price level.

  • @Gradedmoderncoins said:
    The 1990 $25 is a $1500-1600 coin in ms69 and that has a higher mintage than the 2018, so once these coins are distributed into long-term holders' hands so their is minimal available supply, I would imagine the 2018 could get to a similar or perhaps even higher price level.

    The PCGS MS70 1990’s trade for over $15,000! These won’t ever reach that level but there is a nice runway here. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

  • Does anyone know who is the lowest seller of “fresh rolls”?

  • There was an article on the front page of Coin World. Its to early to tell but the supply is drying up fast.

  • ernie11ernie11 Posts: 930 ✭✭✭

    Back to the original post, I just noticed on the Mint's website that the bullion sales total for 2018 is now listed as 32,000, not 30,000.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,547 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 4, 2018 11:07AM

    32,000 must have been the final end-of-month posting. On the other hand, the January 2018 sales probably included some 2017 coins, since I don't recall any discussion of the Mint being out of stock last November or December.

    The question is, what percentage of 2017 coins did the Mint allocate to the orders fulfilled in January of 2018? In the past, I think there has been an allocation of old coins along with the new, but that was for Silver Eagles.

    Are there any distributors or knowledgeable dealers posting here who can clarify the question concerning the 2018 1/2 oz coins?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 411 ✭✭✭

    In early summer 2015 I sought out 2014 bullion 1/2 oz'ers. By that time they were completely gone from every online dealer out there, and hardly any on ebay. Calendar year sales showed 46,000 but finals had just revealed 35,000.

  • It looks like CW picked up on this thread. https://www.coinworld.com/news/precious-metals/2018/11/us-bullion-coin-sales-losing-traction.all.html

    Coins appear to be trying up.

  • @jmski52 said:
    32,000 must have been the final end-of-month posting. On the other hand, the January 2018 sales probably included some 2017 coins, since I don't recall any discussion of the Mint being out of stock last November or December.

    The question is, what percentage of 2017 coins did the Mint allocate to the orders fulfilled in January of 2018? In the past, I think there has been an allocation of old coins along with the new, but that was for Silver Eagles.

    Are there any distributors or knowledgeable dealers posting here who can clarify the question concerning the 2018 1/2 oz coins?

    I was told by one of the distributers that The has to take 2017 1/2 ounce coins in January. They did not recall how many.

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