Silver Surplus for 2018 — Your thoughts?

HemisphericalHemispherical Posts: 6,887 ✭✭✭✭✭

From Coin World.

“Silver Institute survey projects metal surplus for 2018“

Excerpt: “The survey pegs the surplus at 35.3 million ounces, compared with 2.4 million ounces recorded for calendar year 2017.”

https://www.coinworld.com/news/precious-metals/2018/11/survey-projects-silver-surplus-in-2018.html

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Comments

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,022 ✭✭✭✭✭

    buyers are expecting lower prices. Waiting for a bottom.

    All debt-based consumption steals from the future to gratify the present. It is tomorrow’s consumption pulled forward. It signs a perpetual check against an overdrawn future.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,596 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Obviously fake news as folk right here on this very form have consistantly reported silver shortages.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 20,976 ✭✭✭✭✭

    LoL, yeah go to Apmex and the like... no silver for sale in any form

    😁

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,022 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Obviously fake news as folk right here on this very form have consistantly reported silver shortages.

    that was, uh, silver eagle shortages

    All debt-based consumption steals from the future to gratify the present. It is tomorrow’s consumption pulled forward. It signs a perpetual check against an overdrawn future.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,022 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Baley said:
    LoL, yeah go to Apmex and the like... no silver for sale in any form

    😁

    There will always be silver for sale at some price.

    All debt-based consumption steals from the future to gratify the present. It is tomorrow’s consumption pulled forward. It signs a perpetual check against an overdrawn future.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 20,976 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My point is, look at all the silly crap novelties they turn it into ..

    And the ridiculous prices asked.

    It's kind of embarrassing to call myself a silver investor.

    Not to mention the atrocious comparative returns..

    Thank goodness it's only a few percent of my dough.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,596 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 19, 2018 5:13PM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Obviously fake news as folk right here on this very form have consistantly reported silver shortages.

    that was, uh, silver eagle shortages

    LOL....I just did a simple search for the words "silver shortage" in the precious metals forum and got 26 pages (of 10 threads each) of results...thats an average of 1 "silver shortage" thread every month for that last 12 years. They say if you want someone to believe a lie, then keep telling it over and over again. Open yer eyes derryb. ;)


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,638 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 19, 2018 5:42PM

    They say if you want someone to believe a lie, then keep telling it over and over again.

    Since you've opted to represent one of my comments from 8 years ago as a lie, I would remind you simply that the Mint specifically referred to a shortage in silver blanks as the reason for their running out of silver eagles in the middle of the year.

    The post by goingbroke refers to CPM Group's statement about tightness in the silver market in 2011. You're such a big proponent of the "official" versions of these markets - so, are you disputing CPM Group's explanation as well?

    What gratification do you get from trolling about factual posts that were made 7 and 10 years ago? Inquiring minds want to know.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,022 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don't believe discussing and asking questions about possible silver shortages equates to declaring silver shortages. Try harder buttercup.

    All debt-based consumption steals from the future to gratify the present. It is tomorrow’s consumption pulled forward. It signs a perpetual check against an overdrawn future.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,596 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 19, 2018 5:44PM

    @jmski52 said:
    They say if you want someone to believe a lie, then keep telling it over and over again.

    Since you've opted to represent one of my comments from 10 years ago as a lie, I would remind you simply that the Mint specifically referred to a shortage in silver blanks as the reason for their running out of silver eagles in the middle of the year.

    The post by RBinTex refers to CPM Group's statement about tightness in the silver market in 2011. You're such a big proponent of the "official" versions of these markets - so, are you disputing CPM Group's explanation as well?

    What gratification do you get from trolling about factual posts that were made 7 and 10 years ago? Inquiring minds want to know.

    I didnt pick on you jmski (or RibinTex--or anyone else), its just that these posts were in the first page of results. Why you need to feel so defensive?


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,638 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I didnt pick on you jmski, its just that your post was in the first page of results. Why you need to feel so defensive?

    Perhaps because you said that those results were lies, and it appears to me that they were all substantiated sources. So, the point you were trying to make and the language you chose to make it with were poorly chosen, at the least.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,596 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 19, 2018 6:42PM

    @derryb said:
    I don't believe discussing and asking questions about possible silver shortages equates to declaring silver shortages. Try harder buttercup.

    So youre saying there is no silver shortage. There you go..baby steps. LOL


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,596 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,022 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    I don't believe discussing and asking questions about possible silver shortages equates to declaring silver shortages. Try harder buttercup.

    So youre saying there is no silver shortage. There you go..baby steps. LOL

    Doesn't matter what I say, you are the authority. LOL

    All debt-based consumption steals from the future to gratify the present. It is tomorrow’s consumption pulled forward. It signs a perpetual check against an overdrawn future.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,596 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    I don't believe discussing and asking questions about possible silver shortages equates to declaring silver shortages. Try harder buttercup.

    So youre saying there is no silver shortage. There you go..baby steps. LOL

    Doesn't matter what I say, you are the authority. LOL

    Verily.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,638 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 20, 2018 6:53AM

    To the OP's point, I must say that 35.3 million oz is a fairly large number in this market - the largest surplus I can recall without doing the research.

    I wasn't aware of a surplus in 2017, but that would've been the first time I've ever heard of a surplus silver supply in the market.

    If that's the case, we'll have to see what happens when copper & zinc mining tapers off. Recent reports are that the demand for these primary industrial metals has dropped along with new housing starts, and since the main source of silver is as a secondary mining product it seems reasonable that the silver supply will drop next year.

    That will reduce the need for illegal naked shorting, thus easier accumulation - possibly at a lower price. Interesting times.

    Then again, we don't know what demand will do. Compared to the bond markets, silver is tiny.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,022 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Choice of asset changes with the tides.

    All debt-based consumption steals from the future to gratify the present. It is tomorrow’s consumption pulled forward. It signs a perpetual check against an overdrawn future.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,638 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Don't be picking up coins on the beach when the tsunami comes in.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 40,588 ✭✭✭✭✭

    We know there's no shortage of copper, silver, gold, palladium, platinum, brass, bronze, tin, copper , etc., There's no shortage of anything but common sense, nowadays.

  • rickoricko Posts: 67,744 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Shortages in metals is more often contrived - either through actual manuevers or hype.... In fact.. there is plenty of silver (even new large resources in Russia) Whether or not it will translate in pricing is up to powers beyond my reach. Cheers, RickO

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,022 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The supply is literally endless as long as their is a synthetic (futures) market.

    All debt-based consumption steals from the future to gratify the present. It is tomorrow’s consumption pulled forward. It signs a perpetual check against an overdrawn future.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,638 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There has been talk of a dollar shortage and a liquidity crunch among the big international banks. The more I think about that, the more ludicrous it seems.

    If the big banks can pressure the FASB to change the accounting rules (which they did) such that toxic loans are considered to be 100% valued (even though nobody will ever buy them, at any price), then exactly where's the liquidity problem?

    Dollar shortage? Does anyone really know how many more $21 trillions are stuck away into another defense dept. budget black hole? Gimme a break. They can do just about anything they want with money creation and we'll never see it.

    I always have to wonder how some banks can be so mismanaged and still be in business with no prosecutions even when their gross malfeasance and criminality is uncovered as it was in 2008. Oddly enough, if you have any skepticism about these rigged and corrupt systems, you are a small-minded conspiracy theorist who, instead of wisely becoming rich in stock & bond investments, is hopelessly mired in a mindset that will keep you poor for your entire life.

    Which is not true, by the way - but that's the "storyline" that gets spoon-fed to everyone by the financial snake oil salesmen of the world, all of the time.

    You become poor by not becoming educated, by not having a viable career, by not managing your finances and having a lifelong savings plan, by falling for get-rich-quick investment schemes, by handing control of your finances over to an "expert" who is all too happy to charge you fees for making decisions that you should be making about your own finances.

    You don't become poor by buying gold & silver, or even by putting gold & silver ahead of paper assets that have counterparty risks attached to them. You average your costs and manage your taxes just like you would do with any other viable asset.

    The thing that you do when you buy precious metals is to take responsibility for your own assets by removing control from the financial system - reducing your exposure to fees and systemic risk at the same time.

    It's not rocket science.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 20,976 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Very well said jmski52.

    Everyone has a different mindset and outlook for the different asset classes, and we're just sharing thoughts here.

    I learned a lot from my Dad about what Not to do investing, if i wanted to achieve my goals.

    He cash- out refinanced the house often, and bought new cars. I drive beaters to the ground, and paid extra on the mortgage.

    He has no appetite for being a landlord and never was.. I own and manage both long term and vacation properties.

    He never accumulated any precious metals.. I own large SDBs full of them.

    He never invested in the stock market, too Risky. My large diversified portfolio has taken three steps forward and one step back for over 30 years

    He never held employee company stock options, always sold them for immediate bird in hand. My long term held company equity has grown and grown as the businesses became successful, even after i had moved on.

    My good old dad retired comfortably at 55, and as i approach that age, think i still have a decade left in me, doing what i love, which is oncology R&D and helping build therapeutics companies.

    Anyway, everyone has their own preferences and chooses their own path, I'm respectful and grateful to all for sharing, and wish all my friends on this forum a very Happy Thanksgiving!

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,638 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It sounds like your dad took time to enjoy some things, knew when to quit and still managed to retire comfortably. That is the way to do it. Don't forget to do some of that yourself. Sometimes, you don't know how fast the time goes, and you can't get it back.

    Happy Thanksgiving, Baley. And everyone.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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