Very interesting thread. Strip away the toning from these toners and all you have are common coins in high condition selling for 100-1000x multiples of their market value, worth a few hundred to a few thousand dollars. So in 10 years is this coin going to sell again for $129,000. I am fairly sure though that a 1921S Walker in ms 65 is going to retain its $100,000+ price tag. This is like the tulip craze or dot comm bubble. Some people are
Probably going to take a big hit down the road. They are being sold on promotion and illusion. Fool’s gold.
@Rubicon said:
Very interesting thread. Strip away the toning from these toners and all you have are common coins in high condition selling for 100-1000x multiples of their market value, worth a few hundred to a few thousand dollars. So in 10 years is this coin going to sell again for $129,000. I am fairly sure though that a 1921S Walker in ms 65 is going to retain its $100,000+ price tag. This is like the tulip craze or dot comm bubble. Some people are
Probably going to take a big hit down the road. They are being sold on promotion and illusion. Fool’s gold.
I have little confidence that either coin will retain a six figure valuation in the next decade.
@Rubicon said:
Very interesting thread. Strip away the toning from these toners and all you have are common coins in high condition selling for 100-1000x multiples of their market value, worth a few hundred to a few thousand dollars. So in 10 years is this coin going to sell again for $129,000. I am fairly sure though that a 1921S Walker in ms 65 is going to retain its $100,000+ price tag. This is like the tulip craze or dot comm bubble. Some people are
Probably going to take a big hit down the road. They are being sold on promotion and illusion. Fool’s gold.
I have little confidence that either coin will retain a six figure valuation in the next decade.
I agree with much that have been said. Also, The auction company that is promoting many of these coins are very good at what they do. There are a lot of people that get too aggressive on the toning and registry hype. Both have their place in consideration, but if you pay too much, it’s probably going to cost down the road when you try to sell. It is well document that Dell Loy Hansen paid to much for a couple of Mercury dimes a couple years back. You don’t see him doing that any more. It appear after he stopped, some others did as well. For this coin, I am surprised it sold for the amount it did. It has been available on the market for awhile for about twice as much as it realized. If it was purchased by a dealer thinking they can quickly flip for a nice profit. They may see it to be a bit more of effort than they thought. Just my two cents that probably not worth one cent.
@Rubicon said:
Very interesting thread. Strip away the toning from these toners and all you have are common coins in high condition selling for 100-1000x multiples of their market value, worth a few hundred to a few thousand dollars. So in 10 years is this coin going to sell again for $129,000. I am fairly sure though that a 1921S Walker in ms 65 is going to retain its $100,000+ price tag. This is like the tulip craze or dot comm bubble. Some people are
Probably going to take a big hit down the road. They are being sold on promotion and illusion. Fool’s gold.
I have little confidence that either coin will retain a six figure valuation in the next decade.
Why. A 1921S is a legitimate rare key date coin in a popular series. A 1958 Franklin is only a condition, tone freak rarity but a common date as well, with a narrow collector base willing to pay big money
@Rubicon said:
Very interesting thread. Strip away the toning from these toners and all you have are common coins in high condition selling for 100-1000x multiples of their market value, worth a few hundred to a few thousand dollars. So in 10 years is this coin going to sell again for $129,000. I am fairly sure though that a 1921S Walker in ms 65 is going to retain its $100,000+ price tag. This is like the tulip craze or dot comm bubble. Some people are
Probably going to take a big hit down the road. They are being sold on promotion and illusion. Fool’s gold.
I have little confidence that either coin will retain a six figure valuation in the next decade.
Why. A 1921S is a legitimate rare key date coin in a popular series. A 1958 Franklin is only a condition, tone freak rarity but a common date as well, with a narrow collector base willing to pay big money
We have greatly differing definitions of rare. The 1921-S is a better date/key and scarcer than the Franklin to be sure, but I wouldn’t consider most 20th century coins rare. Also rarity does not necessarily guarantee a high price valuation let alone a six figure price tag. One could argue most segments of the U.S. coin market are overpriced especially compared to other coins. The last decade has been illustrative of how thinly capitalized the so called rare coin market really is.
@Rubicon said:
Very interesting thread. Strip away the toning from these toners and all you have are common coins in high condition selling for 100-1000x multiples of their market value, worth a few hundred to a few thousand dollars. So in 10 years is this coin going to sell again for $129,000. I am fairly sure though that a 1921S Walker in ms 65 is going to retain its $100,000+ price tag. This is like the tulip craze or dot comm bubble. Some people are
Probably going to take a big hit down the road. They are being sold on promotion and illusion. Fool’s gold.
I have little confidence that either coin will retain a six figure valuation in the next decade.
Why. A 1921S is a legitimate rare key date coin in a popular series. A 1958 Franklin is only a condition, tone freak rarity but a common date as well, with a narrow collector base willing to pay big money
We have greatly differing definitions of rare. The 1921-S is a better date/key and scarcer than the Franklin to be sure, but I wouldn’t consider most 20th century coins rare. Also rarity does not necessarily guarantee a high price valuation let alone a six figure price tag. One could argue most segments of the U.S. coin market are overpriced especially compared to other coins. The last decade has been illustrative of how thinly capitalized the so called rare coin market really is.
Your point is well taken and valid. Maybe some segments of the coin market are overpriced. However the 1921S in ms 65 has less than 10 coins available and some maybe are resubmissions. In ms 66 I think only 1 or 2. Compared to the 1916D Mercury dime that has 10 in ms67 fb alone one can argue it is cheap. The 1916 slq has 100 coins in ms 65 and is a $40,000 coin.I always wanted to own one as I think the Walker is arguably the most beautiful 20th century coin.
There is no accounting for tastes and preferences. If you have the money and want it and buy it, case closed. It's their money, you cant take it with you.
@Rubicon said:
Very interesting thread. Strip away the toning from these toners and all you have are common coins in high condition selling for 100-1000x multiples of their market value, worth a few hundred to a few thousand dollars. So in 10 years is this coin going to sell again for $129,000. I am fairly sure though that a 1921S Walker in ms 65 is going to retain its $100,000+ price tag. This is like the tulip craze or dot comm bubble. Some people are
Probably going to take a big hit down the road. They are being sold on promotion and illusion. Fool’s gold.
I have little confidence that either coin will retain a six figure valuation in the next decade.
Why. A 1921S is a legitimate rare key date coin in a popular series. A 1958 Franklin is only a condition, tone freak rarity but a common date as well, with a narrow collector base willing to pay big money
We have greatly differing definitions of rare. The 1921-S is a better date/key and scarcer than the Franklin to be sure, but I wouldn’t consider most 20th century coins rare. Also rarity does not necessarily guarantee a high price valuation let alone a six figure price tag. One could argue most segments of the U.S. coin market are overpriced especially compared to other coins. The last decade has been illustrative of how thinly capitalized the so called rare coin market really is.
Your point is well taken and valid. Maybe some segments of the coin market are overpriced. However the 1921S in ms 65 has less than 10 coins available and some maybe are resubmissions. In ms 66 I think only 1 or 2. Compared to the 1916D Mercury dime that has 10 in ms67 fb alone one can argue it is cheap. The 1916 slq has 100 coins in ms 65 and is a $40,000 coin.I always wanted to own one as I think the Walker is arguably the most beautiful 20th century coin.
It depends upon your future assumptions and how far out you are projecting.
Longer term, mine include a likely smaller US collectors base, a noticeably poorer population, and adverse demographics using US Census projections. The first is less certain but the last two I'd consider a "slam dunk". The biggest positive I can think of is an intervening bull market in gold and silver which will help many but not all (US) coins.
None of what I wrote applies to a specific coin especially in a specific quality but the example you provided isn't exactly cheap given what it is as a collectible and what else can be bought as an alternative. Even for someone who wants that specific coin, a slightly lower quality example is a lot cheaper.
I'm speechless at the price.....I do love Franklin's, and I paid what I thought was crazy strong money for a MS -66+ CAC 1958 toner but now it seems an absolute bargain. Here it is:
@Rubicon said:
Very interesting thread. Strip away the toning from these toners and all you have are common coins in high condition selling for 100-1000x multiples of their market value, worth a few hundred to a few thousand dollars. So in 10 years is this coin going to sell again for $129,000. I am fairly sure though that a 1921S Walker in ms 65 is going to retain its $100,000+ price tag. This is like the tulip craze or dot comm bubble. Some people are
Probably going to take a big hit down the road. They are being sold on promotion and illusion. Fool’s gold.
I have little confidence that either coin will retain a six figure valuation in the next decade.
Why. A 1921S is a legitimate rare key date coin in a popular series. A 1958 Franklin is only a condition, tone freak rarity but a common date as well, with a narrow collector base willing to pay big money
We have greatly differing definitions of rare. The 1921-S is a better date/key and scarcer than the Franklin to be sure, but I wouldn’t consider most 20th century coins rare. Also rarity does not necessarily guarantee a high price valuation let alone a six figure price tag. One could argue most segments of the U.S. coin market are overpriced especially compared to other coins. The last decade has been illustrative of how thinly capitalized the so called rare coin market really is.
Your point is well taken and valid. Maybe some segments of the coin market are overpriced. However the 1921S in ms 65 has less than 10 coins available and some maybe are resubmissions. In ms 66 I think only 1 or 2. Compared to the 1916D Mercury dime that has 10 in ms67 fb alone one can argue it is cheap. The 1916 slq has 100 coins in ms 65 and is a $40,000 coin.I always wanted to own one as I think the Walker is arguably the most beautiful 20th century coin.
It depends upon your future assumptions and how far out you are projecting.
Longer term, mine include a likely smaller US collectors base, a noticeably poorer population, and adverse demographics using US Census projections. The first is less certain but the last two I'd consider a "slam dunk". The biggest positive I can think of is an intervening bull market in gold and silver which will help many but not all (US) coins.
None of what I wrote applies to a specific coin especially in a specific quality but the example you provided isn't exactly cheap given what it is as a collectible and what else can be bought as an alternative. Even for someone who wants that specific coin, a slightly lower quality example is a lot cheaper.
Not to mention that today’s 64+ and possibly 64 coins will be 65s with grade inflation in the near future. And don’t necessarily count on today’s 65s getting a bump as grade inflation can be unpredictable. It is part of the reason the coin market has taken such a major hit over the last decade. The crack out artists and grading services (through resubmission revenue) win while collectors flounder. It has been one of the driving forces pushing me out of the hobby.
@Cougar1978 said:
Wow super toner! Amazing bid up that high. Seller must be thrilled. Billionaires in a bid war?
Sometimes, it’s better to read, before posting. This thread is originally from 2018. And as has been posted, the coin was recently re-sold and brought a staggering amount less than it did previously,
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
$47k still strikes me as moon money. I would have considered $20k strong money given the overall stagnation of the Franklin series. The last “regular” 67+ FBL fetched $10.5k at Legend in 2019 and is probably an $7.5k-$10k coin today. I would have guessed $15k - $17.5k for the toner.
Edited: Then again I’ll probably eat my words and the coin will end up grade inflated into a 68FBL holder and sell for more than the original auction. This coin looks light years better than Tomaska’s garish 68 from a few years ago.
Comments
@AuroraBorealis
Wayne, Did you shop lift the pooty?
Very interesting thread. Strip away the toning from these toners and all you have are common coins in high condition selling for 100-1000x multiples of their market value, worth a few hundred to a few thousand dollars. So in 10 years is this coin going to sell again for $129,000. I am fairly sure though that a 1921S Walker in ms 65 is going to retain its $100,000+ price tag. This is like the tulip craze or dot comm bubble. Some people are
Probably going to take a big hit down the road. They are being sold on promotion and illusion. Fool’s gold.
I have little confidence that either coin will retain a six figure valuation in the next decade.
I agree with much that have been said. Also, The auction company that is promoting many of these coins are very good at what they do. There are a lot of people that get too aggressive on the toning and registry hype. Both have their place in consideration, but if you pay too much, it’s probably going to cost down the road when you try to sell. It is well document that Dell Loy Hansen paid to much for a couple of Mercury dimes a couple years back. You don’t see him doing that any more. It appear after he stopped, some others did as well. For this coin, I am surprised it sold for the amount it did. It has been available on the market for awhile for about twice as much as it realized. If it was purchased by a dealer thinking they can quickly flip for a nice profit. They may see it to be a bit more of effort than they thought. Just my two cents that probably not worth one cent.
My 20th Century Gold Major Design Type Set ---started : 11/17/1997 ---- completed : 1/21/2004
Why. A 1921S is a legitimate rare key date coin in a popular series. A 1958 Franklin is only a condition, tone freak rarity but a common date as well, with a narrow collector base willing to pay big money
We have greatly differing definitions of rare. The 1921-S is a better date/key and scarcer than the Franklin to be sure, but I wouldn’t consider most 20th century coins rare. Also rarity does not necessarily guarantee a high price valuation let alone a six figure price tag. One could argue most segments of the U.S. coin market are overpriced especially compared to other coins. The last decade has been illustrative of how thinly capitalized the so called rare coin market really is.
Your point is well taken and valid. Maybe some segments of the coin market are overpriced. However the 1921S in ms 65 has less than 10 coins available and some maybe are resubmissions. In ms 66 I think only 1 or 2. Compared to the 1916D Mercury dime that has 10 in ms67 fb alone one can argue it is cheap. The 1916 slq has 100 coins in ms 65 and is a $40,000 coin.I always wanted to own one as I think the Walker is arguably the most beautiful 20th century coin.
Probably DeLoy Hansen.
There is no accounting for tastes and preferences. If you have the money and want it and buy it, case closed. It's their money, you cant take it with you.
This story reminds of what an old school rare book dealer once told me. Regarding collecting books,
"Buy the book because you like what's in it. Don't buy it because you think you can make money off it."
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
It depends upon your future assumptions and how far out you are projecting.
Longer term, mine include a likely smaller US collectors base, a noticeably poorer population, and adverse demographics using US Census projections. The first is less certain but the last two I'd consider a "slam dunk". The biggest positive I can think of is an intervening bull market in gold and silver which will help many but not all (US) coins.
None of what I wrote applies to a specific coin especially in a specific quality but the example you provided isn't exactly cheap given what it is as a collectible and what else can be bought as an alternative. Even for someone who wants that specific coin, a slightly lower quality example is a lot cheaper.
I'm speechless at the price.....I do love Franklin's, and I paid what I thought was crazy strong money for a MS -66+ CAC 1958 toner but now it seems an absolute bargain. Here it is:
Not to mention that today’s 64+ and possibly 64 coins will be 65s with grade inflation in the near future. And don’t necessarily count on today’s 65s getting a bump as grade inflation can be unpredictable. It is part of the reason the coin market has taken such a major hit over the last decade. The crack out artists and grading services (through resubmission revenue) win while collectors flounder. It has been one of the driving forces pushing me out of the hobby.
Wow super toner! Amazing bid up that high. Seller must be thrilled. Billionaires in a bid war?
Sometimes, it’s better to read, before posting. This thread is originally from 2018. And as has been posted, the coin was recently re-sold and brought a staggering amount less than it did previously,
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
$47k still strikes me as moon money. I would have considered $20k strong money given the overall stagnation of the Franklin series. The last “regular” 67+ FBL fetched $10.5k at Legend in 2019 and is probably an $7.5k-$10k coin today. I would have guessed $15k - $17.5k for the toner.
Edited: Then again I’ll probably eat my words and the coin will end up grade inflated into a 68FBL holder and sell for more than the original auction. This coin looks light years better than Tomaska’s garish 68 from a few years ago.