$14 is the bottom
bronco2078
Posts: 10,225 ✭✭✭✭✭
until the next one I mean
5
bronco2078
Posts: 10,225 ✭✭✭✭✭
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JP Morgan and no one else will tell you the bottom. The only problem is they aren't telling anyone.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Probably getting cheap enough to have some long term value eventually, May be early, but I'm slowly buying some GDXJ.
Maybe even a poured 100oz silver bar, if I can find a smaller premium.
Still some room for momentum with DUST. The smart money cashed in recently at $45, re-entered at $37.25.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I don't mean a spot bottom so much as a physical bottom over the counter . Sellers seem to be holding pretty firm . I'm not seeing anything good for sale , just trickles locally. No panic , no bargains , nothing I actually want to tell the truth . I mean I had a guy offer me 20 rolls of war nickles but I'm good thanks.
10% ebay bucks and I'm looking for 2 hours now and I can't find anything to buy .
Glad to see you've regained control of your account. I was getting worried in the other thread.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
There is a flight to quality in physical silver.
Little nooks are selling at much higher than 14$ an ounce. Morgan dollar silver is $25 an ounce or more on ebay .
try buying one of the good cinco pesos for spot , the big boy 47 or 48 are over 25 bucks and they are not rare .
I wonder if anyone ever attempted to chart historical premiums on certain types of silver? It wouldn't be easy to do but it would be very interesting.
Heh, I can't find any coin of any type I want to buy. Guess my needs for coins are currently fulfilled. Now if the bullion would go up, I'd sell some and buy a rare US coin dated 1793-1798.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
well it could also be that search is so broken that we just can't see them
But most is selling much lower, generic silver 1oz bars, rounds, and most foreign crap can be had for $10 you just need to know where to look.
Where?
Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb
Bad transactions with : nobody to date
As always you worry about the wrong things.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
ya but that stuff doesn't protect on the downside. If you bought morgan dollars 4 or 5 years ago though you are still even if you sell on ebay , but bars and ase's , not so much. ASE's were created to sub in for silver dollars but things got out of hand . There are too many now and a lot of people don't realize they put too many eggs in that basket.
A majority of stackers , well everyone really , forget about the tortoise and the hare .
Of course the quantity of counterfeit coins ( thanks China!!!) are a new wrinkle that present a problem for the premium stuff.
I was just being selfish....I don't know what I'd do if you discovered logic and pragmatism.
djm, too am interested in $10 silver.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I wouldn't be surprised if it fell to $10 in the next few years.
Man I don't know where you folks are selling , but you cant give the sht away here. I cant even get 14 oz for rounds, cant get 9.5 x face for 90. gold 1 oz coins forget it, cant sell them for anywhere near spot.
been taking everything to the refinery at 97% (best I can get period)
You're looking in the wrong places...ebay: 90% junk silver goes for 12+ x face, you can't get silver rounds at or even neat spot, all are above spot. 10 oz bars: $1.50 to $2.00 above spot per oz.
I'm sure if you list your rounds on the BST for slightly above spot, you'll have lots of takers.
Agreed . If people were worried silver might crater from here wouldn't they be selling at spot?
As a stacker who likes to collect coins I was hoping I could find some hoards coming to market but theres nothing. I'd like a big lot of 50% silver florins or shillings as a goof. Stuff I'd never buy at $30 an ounce ,I'd take a flyer on at $14.
Is there a surplus of supply over demand in the silver market. $14 would seem to imply that, along with the usual manipulation and lack of oversight. Anybody have a good current reference? GATA? CPM? Who has the most reliable data?
I knew it would happen.
Do not forget that silver spot price is determined in the paper futures markets. Because silver futures contracts can be bought and sold without physical backing, the sky is the limit with supply (of the paper product). It is estimated that 100 ozs. of paper are traded for every 1 oz. in their warehouses. This occurs without interruption because most futures traders never actually take physical delivery.
Here is an older report that explains supply and demand in the Gold/Silver futures markets.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Do not forget that silver spot price is determined in the paper futures markets.
That's why I posed the question about actual supply & demand. It's been awhile since I studied economics, but somewhere back in the ancient recesses of my memory I recall that supply & demand might somehow be important.
I know, I know - getting real data is nigh onto impossible in the mining industry, so I continue in mushroom mode - being kept in the dark, etc., etc..........
I knew it would happen.
Premium over spot for the physical does seem to be affected by the supply and demand of the physical stuff. Until something breaks the paper pushers will continue to control the spot price.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
its actually very complicated , there is an ebb and flow to the premium. If silver is selling for 15x face and spot drops that price is sticky at15x for a period of time. If it continues to sell at that price then the shop won't lower , theres no reason to. If people won't pay 15x then the shop will probably wait a week or whatever andd go to 14x to see if buyers start spending. They will adjust buy prices lower almost instantly.
On a sudden up move you will see sell prices increase instantly but buy prices linger at the lower level for a while.
Then you have to add the sellers personality in to the mix. Do they think half dollars are worth more or not? Are morgans worth more than peace dollars , do they like ASE's or maples or whatever? Do the buyers ask for certain things because of regional demand, are you near canada or mexico ?
All in all it seems impossible to chart , you get a feel for the different sellers in your area though and can see where they diverge from the big boys. APMEX and provident for instance have oddball stuff that they list with huge premiums that would not be sold that way over the counter. I used to have a guy that saved koala and kookaburras for me that at the big places would sometimes sell for 2 or 3 times melt based on the year or all the other nonsense like privy marks. He would sell them to me for a few bucks over spot , basically like ASE pricing , he could see the online prices as well as I could , but putting them in a display case he knew no one would pay up like that. There was a certain unquantifiable collector demand but it wasnt worth chasing after if he only had 2 or 3 random examples.
I still buy stuff like that with an eye towards future collectors buying from me but its anyones guess if they will be in or out of favor.
Thing is that there's no real RETAIL demand for 90% coin.
ROUNDS ROUNDS ROUNDS.....ad nauseam.
The other thing the big boys do when spot is down is to put items on a sort of rotating out of stock system. So silver or gold is still for sale but the gates are up and they try to herd you into items they might want to lighten up on or are able to leverage a premium for whatever reason. Thats savvy business thinking as it usually works with a little fine tuning.
For instance look at the mexican gold pesos on provident
https://www.providentmetals.com/gold/mexican-gold-coins.html
That 2 peso is way over priced and they conceal it a little by virtue of the 2.5 peso being out of stock. 2 peso is small though and people without a lot of money to spend might well stretch for it since its the cheapest gold on the site. Its also below $100 threshold that triggers free shipping so a buyer might then add some other items , and pay a premium just to get free shipping.
Or they do the teaser price "as low as" but you have to buy 50
, which no one is going to do right? I mean if you had that money to spend you would buy 10 10 peso coins or 20 5 pesos or some such, maybe 2 50 pesos and save a few hundred bucks.
Everyones methods break down under some level of scrutiny buyers sellers whatever. Like if you want 90% for barter maybe you want dimes , but do you want all your silver to be dimes? I might want 1000 dimes or 5000 but I don't want a million . That means you either have to commit to that exact strategy or add something else and justify that format. I know people that want to have a few bags of morgans so thats 1000 right , but the actual bag isn't important so if you had 900 or 1100 you are probably okay . The OCD stacker probably envisions collecting 1000 to make a bag then selling that bag at some future time , but that would be retarded obviously. The perils of OCD
Lol....look at Ebay and your favorite bullion dealers. Is everything "out of stock"?
Yeah...you're really kept in the dark. Open your eyes man!! Lol
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
25 thousand metric tons of silver were mined worldwide in 2017.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Smart Money" LOL, my favorite oxymoron
Buy low, sell high.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I can't speak for anyone else , but I'm a mature stacker now as far as what I'm looking for . I don't ever want another generic round or ASE even at a bargain price. I am looking for junk halfs , circ pre 1921 morgans , world crown size coins 90% and down to 72% , and Standing liberty quarters with full dates pretty much , although I am snagging newfie sterling and aussie sterling and 50% from New zealand just because. I will grab 1 oz kooks koala pandas and libertads (balance scale preferably I just like them ) for near spot. No year of the (blank) no britannias no noahs ark or turtles etc.
No bars , no 40% halfs unless they are at face value from an unwitting bank teller.
No war nickles , no Canadian smaller than a dollar.
I view silver as a way to bolster cash flow when I'm old. I figure I can sell loose morgans or rolls of halfs piece meal in person or at an antique booth or flea market table. Market some of the collectible stuff on ebay or whatever. Anything sold on ebay has to be above spot because of the over head , thats morgans , maria theresa , french and mexican crown size that i'm sitting on. Bars don't fit either strategy , while they are liquid , no one cares about generic enough to bid it up enough on ebay and locally I don't think people really care either. In person I want stuff that sells itself.
A fly in the ointment with ebay is what that will be like 15 or 20 years from now. fees will be higher is the obvious thing but will it even exist and what will replace it ?
@bronco2078
I appreciate your willingness to share your strategy, I like it
Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb
Bad transactions with : nobody to date
He's talking about himself....so yes, an oxymoron indeed. Hahaha Come on derryb, thats funny.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Ok...so lets play. There are 32,150.75 oz in a metric ton, so thats 803,768,750 ounces mined last year. According to
the interweb, a 1 oz JM bar is 2 inches long. So if this silver were refined into 1oz JM bars and laid end to end it would extend for 25,371 miles!!! Yeah, thats all the way around the Earth---almost exactly!!
Think about this....the circumference of the Earth is about 24,900 miles at the equator. Which, strangely, is also the length of this 1 oz JM bar thingy. Hmmm. Yeah, this definitely proves manipulation. And a conspiracy among the miners to keep the string of silver from exceeding the circumference of the Earth.
The Space Bros DO have this figured out!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
25,000*1000kg = 25,000,000kg or 25,000,000,000 grams /31.1g = ~804,000,000 troy ounces in 2017. A huge number to be sure but..........1/10 of a troy ounce per person on Earth.
All the silver mined in the history of the world would allow each person currently alive to own about 7 ounces. In 2017 I got mine (no pun).
I love stats.