Happy 10th Anniversary 2008 financial crisis
derryb
Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
was ready for you then, be seeing you again soon?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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Charts are history, and in that respect, valuable. Their only predictive value is 'it will happen again... sometime'....Cheers, RickO
Yup, not "if, but when" !!!
Have we learned anything yet?
I was looking for a house but atm, everything is crazy expensive and sometimes even going several thousand $$ over what the house is worth. No, I’m too gun shy to get a house now and settled for an apartment for the time being.
Awesome chart! Connect the tops and extend that line into the future... then connect the bottoms and extend that line. Now predict your lifespan, and there is your design space. Enjoy!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Hint: many of us will live to see the Pot Bubble and the True virtual reality bubbke and the actual Space Bubble.
I wouldn't name now Everything, instead it's Social media, online shopping bubble, electric car , video game bubble, cryptocurrency and dark web and disinformation bubble, etc.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
What makes you think the Pot Bubble isn't already happening.
Oh it's certainly bubbling and smoldering like a 4 foot long bong, but not as high as it will get, pot bubble far from topping imo, even as the different enterprises shake out
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I heard the next recession will be the worse one yet, maybe even a depression
Met with one of my investor chat neighbor buddies yesterday, he's done pretty good with the pot stocks the past year. There's legs there, especially if more legalization and hopefully banking acceptance come into play.
Have you ever hear someone say the next time won't be as bad as the last? Of course you havent. These folks use fear to control you. You can choose to be a puppet or a master. The choice is yours, and yours alone.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
All I thought that would happen, didn’t. I thought debt mattered. I thought greater govt intrusion mattered. I thought truth mattered. It’s a good thing I kept my night job.
The next recession - when it comes - will just be a recession, maybe shorter, maybe longer than the last. We just know it will happen. There are worse possibilities out there, let's hope none of them come true. Rest assured, at some point in time, there will be a major black swan event. What it will be, when it may happen and how vast the devastation is all unknown and unpredictable. Just keep living and do the best you can.
Cheers, RickO
It will. Unsustainable debt always has a bad ending.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
_All I thought that would happen, didn’t. I thought debt mattered.
It does.
I thought greater govt intrusion mattered.
It does.
I thought truth mattered.
It does.
It’s a good thing I kept my night job.
Good move!
I knew it would happen.
After 10 Years of "Recovery," What Are Central Banks So Afraid Of?
"Wait a minute: so the patient has been on life-support for 10 years and authorities are telling us the patient is now super-healthy? If the patient is so healthy, then why is he still on life support after 10 years of "recovery"? If the global economy is truly healthy, then central banks should end all their stimulus programs and let the market discover the price of credit, risk and assets."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
At the rate things are going? Much sooner than later. Careful with your paper, although toilet paper is certainly nice to have. lulz
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180904/
Good read, ADG. Thanks!
I knew it would happen.
Keep hiking:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Just last week I got an announcement of a TRUST DEED Meetup group.
Those can be good except now I am completely convinced that houses are in bubble mode again.
I had some back in 2003 that were ...SWELL
One must remember what causes these bubbles - easy money that will not be repaid. It could be for houses, cars, college education or even investments. Wash, rinse, repeat.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I did a brief review this morning and I still can't fathom how bad it is and how bad it was. It's still standard practice for the banks to create leveraged debt money out of thin air, and to come up with leveraged financial packages to sell as low-risk deals to pension funds, municipalities and sovereign wealth funds to name a few - anybody with money. They reap fees for selling these large deals, and so do the lawyers. Ok, fine.
But, when the deals went south for Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and they declared their bankruptcies, "the system" was on the hook because there was nobody on the other end of the deal for the payout to the bagholders (such as AIG and Goldman Sachs, and BoA and the rest). Hank Paulson, former Goldman alumnus, handed $700 billion to the banks, who promptly used the money to liquidate their bad debts, and the money didn't go for lending to business in a slow economy as was promised by Paulson.
AIG was bailed out so that Goldman didn't have to eat the 6.1 billion pounds ($8.8 billion) in losses that they otherwise would have incurred from their claims with AIG that weren't going to be paid. In celebration, 443 Goldman partners got an average of over $4,000,000 in Christmas bonuses that year. That's never going to be okay, period.
The corruption in the banking and political systems went all the way to the top. No one was ever held accountable and no one was ever prosecuted for the bad deals, the bad loans, the lies to regulators, the over-extended leveraged financial packages that were obviously mis-represented as low risk financial instruments when they were being sold.
According to what I now read, the leverage in the system is now much, much greater than it was back in 2008. As interest rates rise, what the heck do you think is going to happen? "Someone" is going to lose out on a leveraged deal. As derryb says - wash, rinse, repeat.
Lastly, it's worldwide now. Every government and pension scheme has made financial promises that can't be kept. The word "ponzi" simply doesn't even come close to what's been set up. It's what comes next that will be a mess.
I knew it would happen.
The only thing that has changed is that the 2008 wallpaper has faded.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Without QE, "bread and circuses" has simply become "circuses".
I knew it would happen.
QE will return.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
and the de-dollarization continues
"Once the dollar loses world reserve status, the transfer of price inflation into the U.S. will be immense. Dollars held overseas will come flooding back into the country, as they will no longer be needed for international exchange of goods and resources."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
And when the queen grows balls she'll be king.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Has anyone ever stopped to think what might precipitate such an event? It's like everything is held static except the poor old USA.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
There is gathering sentiment afoot to find alternatives as the U.S. becomes a less reliable international stabilizer and sponsor of international convention, as other economies and others' geopolitical clout develops (read: China), as technological means of monetary exchange respond to innovation, etc. Yes, it would be difficult. But nothing is permanent. And if international determination remains strong, it will happen sooner than later.
theweek.com/articles/759509/dethroning-dollar
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
China wants to create a currency backed by gold. that might be a more popular currency someday
And if international determination remains strong, it will happen sooner than later.
Yeah, the entire world against the USA. We're so alone. No friends. No allies. No commonality. Just us alone.
Lol
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The US is by no means alone.
It's just that times do change and are changing, and IMHO we should be wary of becoming too dependent on having the kind of clout, flexibility and indebtedness that having the world reserve currency enables.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Fact is, other nations, even our best allies, are now seeking, creating and finding alternatives in international trade in US$. Those dollars returning to the US will fuel US inflation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Please quantify.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
dow down 831 points, interest rates up with debt now costing more. gold up a bit
Quantify it yourself. Time to expand the current limits of your research. You might start with ZH. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I got chickens, fertile farmland, timber, wildlife, gold, gunz and butter off the top of my head. Bring it, expose the paper ponzi scheme for what it is. I learned a few things since 2008. I sleep very well at night. lol
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Please quantify.> @derryb said:
I did and found nothing to corroborate your claim (lie). Apparently you are just making up more nonsense again
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I read somewhere within the past few days that the yuan accounts for something like 3% of global trade. But they are selling Treasuries now because of their own liquidity problems.
Nevertheless, their plan is to step back from the dollar (including not just China but all of the BRICs and others), which means that there's a long way to go from 3% and the size of China's economy does mean that there will be a significant impact on the dollar.
I knew it would happen.
Pecuniarily speaking, If America gets a cold, the rest of the world would be on life support.
Unless your country is in the stone age, trading pretty shells for pelts, it doesn't want anything terrible to happen to the dollar.
My Saint Set
At least until it rids themselves of them.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
And you don't get much for your $$$. I'm glad I bought when I did.
I disagree. The economies nowadays in countries like India, China and Russia are nowhere near what they were 30 years ago. They make up a larger portion of the buying power; we are no longer the only large consumer.
Add the fact that other nations are now realizing their dependence on the dollar economy brings them the blowback of bad dollar management. Fed policy has international implications.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The same people who say the dollar is being used to manipulate gold prices are saying the dollar is loosing power over foreign currency.
It could possibly be true but it seems weird.
My Saint Set
The same people who say the dollar is being used to manipulate gold prices
Who is saying that? That's not what I've been hearing (or saying).
are saying the dollar is loosing power over foreign currency
Who is saying that the dollar "has power over" foreign currency? What kind of power? By what mechanism?
Not sure what you are saying...
I knew it would happen.
I disagree with your chart. We have accumulated Debt since war time and never paid it off. So to label it one reason or another is just like blaming the road your on when oncoming traffic hits your car. I think as a conservative (don't yell) I want to Audit the Fed. Way too much going on to not have a look see. What we see in the Public market is only one side.
Point of no return has come & gone I fear.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
Next black swan: Saudi influenced rapid increase in oil prices, unless US succeeds in regime change.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I disagree with your chart. We have accumulated Debt since war time and never paid it off.
The chart isn't public debt (i.e., Treasury debt), it's corporate debt/GDP, which I would tend to regard as some measure of the real economy's activity level/health.
The chart isn't showing whether or not any debt was being paid off (it was, just as it was also being continuously re-issued by corporations as part of the business cycle) - the chart is just showing the corporate debt to GDP ratio and how that particular debt to GDP ratio seems to be correlated to each bubble.
In other words, each bubble has been caused by too much speculative corporate borrowing. An important variable (not shown) would also be an overlay of the Fed Funds rate during each of these time periods, because that would provide an indicator of the degree to which the Fed's interest rate policies were causal.
Corporations are funny things in their own right. Different set of players than the public sector debt, with different motivations. Both sectors use debt to fund their goals. Corporations are on the hook to pay it back in order to survive but government debt simply puts the taxpayers on the hook and doesn't care if the taxpayers survive or not.
To wit - the Fed shouldn't be in the middle of other private companies' business. The Fed shouldn't be in the business of buying public debt to control interest rates. The Fed shouldn't be in anyone's business. It's a non-governmental, privately-owned cartel. They shouldn't be exempt from anti-trust laws & regulations.
The Fed is just another scam that's been ingrained into the system. It's a huge conflict of interest, no different than if the Secretary of Defense were sitting on the boards of directors for Boeing, Sikorsky, and Martin Marietta.
I knew it would happen.
Or....is the chart simply showing that corporate debt has peaked at the beginning of each recession? Corporations borrow money to expand or upgrade, which they rarely do during recessions.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear