@Paradisefound said: @ErrorsOnCoins
You are still young and has so much in the tank growing your business....
C'mon don't go chicken on your portfolio! 67/33 is conservative enough given your current financial well being as long as your liquid is sufficient enough to survive in a down time.
P.S: I am more than happy to bump it up cause I don't have twisted panty on
I am not chickening out, I am gambling actually. Going against the tide
@Redglobe said:
34 years of putting 12-18% in a 401K... the first 30 years were growth,growth,growth the last few where preservation."tweeked" my portfolio to mainstay dividend stock mutual funds.
Dollar cost average....
Don't worry about peaks and bottoms,the main thing everyone should do is to start early and "pay yourself first"
Will actually retire in Oct. at the age of 59 1/2
Your a very intelligent investor........
I just turned 60 and have always maxed out and have been in the most aggressive stock funds offered.
Still am.......
Will be......
@NIPSZX said:
If you're an investor in ETF's or looking to invest in ETF's, before you start make sure you research and understand these following entities:
@NIPSZX said:
If you're an investor in ETF's or looking to invest in ETF's, before you start make sure you research and understand these following entities:
OK, when I posted the OP there where 3 gaps that needed to be filled. Two below and one above. One of the below gaps got filled and today the upper gap was filled.
Now what?
Two options IMO, Blow through the old high to make new highs or a massive double top?
@ErrorsOnCoins said:
OK, when I posted the OP there where 3 gaps that needed to be filled. Two below and one above. One of the below gaps got filled and today the upper gap was filled.
Now what?
Two options IMO, Blow through the old high to make new highs or a massive double top?
Being a bear, makes you gay automatically. Look at Ron Paul
It's funny how the NYT was just running the percentage drop today so as not to disturb people probably; of course when it goes up a lot they run the points increase. Asset preservation is the #1 rule of investing.
I actually ask my wife about a week and a half ago if she wanted to get out the last one-third of our account that was still in the market. She said no let it ride as at that point the market was higher than were we sold. Today it is lower than that point.
@logger7 said:
It's funny how the NYT was just running the percentage drop today so as not to disturb people probably; of course when it goes up a lot they run the points increase. Asset preservation is the #1 rule of investing.
Better than CNN where the frantic TH was noting that 800 points is one of the highest drops in history. Percentages are of course a more accurate reflection for the numerically challenged.
@logger7 said:
It's funny how the NYT was just running the percentage drop today so as not to disturb people probably; of course when it goes up a lot they run the points increase. Asset preservation is the #1 rule of investing.
Better than CNN where the frantic TH was noting that 800 points is one of the highest drops in history. Percentages are of course a more accurate reflection for the numerically challenged.
It wouldn't be that hard to do both; percentage/points. If they do points when it goes up or when changes are minimal and percentages when it drops significantly, people can question their motives.
I dunno. I know nothing goes up forever. I'm still in the part of my career where a weaker stock market would help more than hurt me. This upward trend makes it more expensive to get in, but everything I've invested so far looks good on paper.
After studying this for a few decades, the only thing that makes sense to me is to diversify, be a bit more aggressive when young, dollar cost average, put some in non-traditional areas, and gradually move assets to more protected areas the closer I get to retirement. Even this is speculating. Trying to time the market is a minefield.
I have a couple of subscriptions to Hedgeye. I followed them for years before doing so. They changed the way I position myself in the market. They have been moving us towards long bonds duration, long bond proxies, etc. Some of the data over the past couple of weeks have caused some discomfort with rising 30yr rates, but I last bought more at 3.23%.
Their overall call is that we are headed to slowing growth and slower inflation, till Q1/Q2 2019. The rate of change YoY comps are going to be tough. Therefore rotate out of growth sectors like tech. Basically, rotate out of things that work during rising growth and rising inflation. I also learned to trade in and out of positions based on risk ranges.
I sleep much better at night, and my better half is on board with the program, and holding more money market then we ever did before.
The second best part is -- in my mind -- not wasting time watching CNBC/Bloomberg. And yes the cost of the subs has paid for itself.
As an accountant by education, I can tell you there are some fundamentals that need to be understood with investing. One is do not rely on charts. The reason? Because you do not invest in all the charted companies unless you are in a mutual fund.
When you put your money in a stock do so because you believe that that company will grow, make money and thus improve it's stock price as the company becomes more valuable.
Do not invest in companies that do not have positive earnings.
Do not invest in companies who's debt only gets bigger every year (profit or not)
lot's of other rules, but do start with these two.
Of course there are exceptions to every rule but those are rare and certainly hard to predict.
bob
PS: I look at the companies balance sheet first
Registry: CC lowballs (boblindstrom), bobinvegas1989@yahoo.com
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
@bigjpst said:
I agree that you can’t go broke taking profits but missed opportunities can be expensive. People who stayed out of the market during the run up may have just as much money as they did when they got out, but think about how they could have done had they bought in at the bottom.
Al that said I have no idea how the market will react to any of this.
If you knew how the marks would react, you could be the next multi-billionaire. Absolutely no one knows.
@Redglobe said:
34 years of putting 12-18% in a 401K... the first 30 years were growth,growth,growth the last few where preservation."tweeked" my portfolio to mainstay dividend stock mutual funds.
Dollar cost average....
Don't worry about peaks and bottoms,the main thing everyone should do is to start early and "pay yourself first"
Will actually retire in Oct. at the age of 59 1/2
Very, very interesting. I retired at 59 1/2 in 2007. I was burned out in my consulting work. So retired. When you can retire, DO IT. I see these corrections so often and I really try to ignore them. Years ago I reduced our debt to zero. So now at age 70 1/2, I obviously watch but try to keep a conservative eye on the real whole picture. I do not invest for the quick profit or worry about cashing in my profits. At my "delicate" age, I invest for protecting my nest egg and also reducing income tax. I found some very well performing funds that do just that. So I am trusting their program. For me, I really look at investing, if the market really goes to poop, I will just sell all and slowly withdraw only enough to satisfy the federal government tax wise (RMD) and other than that satisfy our monthly needs. I no longer look for quick profit, however if the market works in my favor go for returns.
@ErrorsOnCoins said:
Thanks all and I agree about leaving it alone an not tweaking it.
"lifecycle fund" Yes, ours is in something similar which bonds out more near retirement.
Remember Ten years of no changes so far. Excellent growth admitted. 33% still in.
Honestly, I do think it will go lower in the near term of now to months from now upon whatever news.
The chart looks hard to maintain long-term without some relaxing, read correction.
I am looking for 20 to 30 % to pop back in 100% and then forget about it. If less then so be it .
If this happens, my wife will think I am a genius.
Remember no matter what the DJIA is showing, the economy is definitely doing very well. Actually right now, if you had the available funds with this down turn now is a great time to buy more. That given be conservative and buy funds that will protect your investment, however, allow for some growth. I will no offer any funds to do that, however, just offer the advice, do not give up. Ignoring and political hoopla, the economy in the USA is doing very good. So stick with it.
@TommyType said:
I briefly toyed with the idea of market charting, timing, trading, etc.
The vast majority of my invested assets are in the Government employee 401(k), (Thrift Savings Plan, by name). And up until maybe 2010(?), it was unlike MOST 401(k)'s in that it allowed active trading since there was no penalty, or fees, or limits on moving from fund to fund. (Rather unfair in that a small number of "traders" were responsible for most of the trading costs borne by the entire population of investors....so they finally ended the practice by putting transaction limits on everyone...one move a month, or some such.)
Anyway, I followed a message board specifically dedicated to trading in the TSP. With a limited number (6) well known and daily reported investment funds available, it was easy for them to track EVERYONE'S returns if they all posted their moves. (They didn't have to post $$ values, just percentage invested in each fund, and when they made changes.)
I watched, learned, and even made a few trades when I "felt the urge". Then I took the time to look at everyone's returns. Compared to just leaving their investments in a "normal" diversified allocation, (whatever I determined that to be at the time), for the 18 month time span I looked at, about 30% of the people were doing WORSE.....maybe 50% were pretty much the same....and only 20% were actually beating the "normal". And based on the (lack of) logic I witnessed, I had no reason to believe that 20% didn't rotate frequently, and over a longer term, I'm not sure ANYONE was really beating the system to any great degree.
So, i gracefully bowed out, put everything into a pre-allocated "lifecycle fund", and stopped watching.
The funniest guy was the one who ran the message board. In the entire time I followed it, (maybe 2 years), he was SURE there was a market crash coming. And all of his assets were in a low yield government bond fund for the entire time. I stopped watching before the "crash" in 2007 or 2008, but I'm sure he was proud of himself about missing that. Unfortunately, he also missed the entire run-up before that, and if I were placing a bet, he probably missed the entire run-up AFTER that waiting for a second dip. But, he considered himself a master trader. In reality, he was just scared.
I'm getting to the age of being more careful about my allocations, just for safety, but I think I'll still leave the active trading to someone else.....
Wow I am totally confused what you were invested in. I had a Keogh fund (self invested) and then rolled it over to a self-directed IRA. With the self directed IRA I am totally open to what I invest in. I ended up selecting funds that for me are almost tax-free. They are tax consideration invested funds. I will not divulge funds as I absolutely do not want to recommend a fund. However, as much as I can I try to ignore market downturns as we are having now. Because the funds I invest in actually make money from these kind of market actions, their price may drop, however, you have to keep in mind, that is how they make their profit. I.E. puts, options, etc. Very complicated, however, in one point, they are way beyond my concept of investing, however, after all these years, they obviously know so much more than me in this investing world, I am confident in their performance. Individual stock picking is absolutely so risky that at my age I will not ever attempt that. These stock fund investors are paid to perform and you are well advised to (after study) go with them.
Easy math EOC, is that the high earning multiples will not survive a sustained increase in interest rates. If you believe that the 10yr note rate is going to return to it's historical average of 4% or higher, bearish is the call.
Update: The market is kinda doing what I expected. The VIX is climbing. My holdings stand at 67% Out of the market in Stable a Bond Fund producing dividends and 33% still in the market.
Everyone was so positive when I got out at 26050, sentiment seems to be changing. Not ready to get back in until I see Panic! Watch the VIX
Buy-and-hold at the appropriate asset allocation (AA), with rebalancing when required to return to the AA, has been excellent for my financial health over the past 25 years or so. Jumping in and out based on the signal du jour is the path to financial destruction.
@RYK said:
Buy-and-hold at the appropriate asset allocation (AA), with rebalancing when required to return to the AA, has been excellent for my financial health over the past 25 years or so. Jumping and out based on the signal du jour is the path to financial destruction.
I did not make a move for ten years. I saw the chart as unsustainable and needed some fixing. I do not day trade as I know from experience that is a way to go broke.
I will go all in in a growth fund when the VIX tells me to.
Somebody please post the current chart for Decembrrrrrrrr!
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
@ErrorsOnCoins, VIX is a nice thing to watch for timing and direction. You might get your spike(s) -- Feb2018 -- soon. I'm thinking early Feb2019.... just in time for 4qtr/full year data to arrive. Slowing growth and slowing inflation. Looks like 4qtr GDP is going to have a "1" print. Market is way above that now...
In any case, there is always a bullish trend somewhere.
It's interesting that @ErrorsOnCoins AND @FadeToBlack can use the same trigger to execute their trade position. EOC will go long and FTB can close his short!
Comments
I am not chickening out, I am gambling actually. Going against the tide
well....90/10 then
and ride the waves....
@ErrorsOnCoins said
I am not chickening out, I am gambling actually. Going against the tide
I am going 100% preservation fund it the dow hits 29,499 in the short term.
The sheep always get led to slaughter. Enjoy.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Your a very intelligent investor........
I just turned 60 and have always maxed out and have been in the most aggressive stock funds offered.
Still am.......
Will be......
I just killed it with TLRY.......
If you're an investor in ETF's or looking to invest in ETF's, before you start make sure you research and understand these following entities:
decay
contango
price resetting
price deviation
tracking errors
You can follow me @UNSCAMMABLE on Twitter for more investment knowledge.
Or just put everything you have in TLRY and retire next month.
Good call.
OK, when I posted the OP there where 3 gaps that needed to be filled. Two below and one above. One of the below gaps got filled and today the upper gap was filled.
Now what?
Two options IMO, Blow through the old high to make new highs or a massive double top?
Being a bear, makes you gay automatically. Look at Ron Paul
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bear_(gay_culture)
Ok...I predict an 800 point drop on 10/10!
It's funny how the NYT was just running the percentage drop today so as not to disturb people probably; of course when it goes up a lot they run the points increase. Asset preservation is the #1 rule of investing.
I actually ask my wife about a week and a half ago if she wanted to get out the last one-third of our account that was still in the market. She said no let it ride as at that point the market was higher than were we sold. Today it is lower than that point.
I drove past Warren Buffett's house , today.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Better than CNN where the frantic TH was noting that 800 points is one of the highest drops in history. Percentages are of course a more accurate reflection for the numerically challenged.
All gaps have been filled except the one below at 25,250 which I expect to get filled soon.
The VIX spiked today. Fear!
It wouldn't be that hard to do both; percentage/points. If they do points when it goes up or when changes are minimal and percentages when it drops significantly, people can question their motives.
Also futures are down a lot more than today's loss: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-10/carnage-continues-after-hours-dow-down-1000-pts-nasdaq-collapses-5
I didn't see this thread until today.
I dunno. I know nothing goes up forever. I'm still in the part of my career where a weaker stock market would help more than hurt me. This upward trend makes it more expensive to get in, but everything I've invested so far looks good on paper.
After studying this for a few decades, the only thing that makes sense to me is to diversify, be a bit more aggressive when young, dollar cost average, put some in non-traditional areas, and gradually move assets to more protected areas the closer I get to retirement. Even this is speculating. Trying to time the market is a minefield.
I have a couple of subscriptions to Hedgeye. I followed them for years before doing so. They changed the way I position myself in the market. They have been moving us towards long bonds duration, long bond proxies, etc. Some of the data over the past couple of weeks have caused some discomfort with rising 30yr rates, but I last bought more at 3.23%.
Their overall call is that we are headed to slowing growth and slower inflation, till Q1/Q2 2019. The rate of change YoY comps are going to be tough. Therefore rotate out of growth sectors like tech. Basically, rotate out of things that work during rising growth and rising inflation. I also learned to trade in and out of positions based on risk ranges.
I sleep much better at night, and my better half is on board with the program, and holding more money market then we ever did before.
The second best part is -- in my mind -- not wasting time watching CNBC/Bloomberg. And yes the cost of the subs has paid for itself.
As an accountant by education, I can tell you there are some fundamentals that need to be understood with investing. One is do not rely on charts. The reason? Because you do not invest in all the charted companies unless you are in a mutual fund.
When you put your money in a stock do so because you believe that that company will grow, make money and thus improve it's stock price as the company becomes more valuable.
Do not invest in companies that do not have positive earnings.
Do not invest in companies who's debt only gets bigger every year (profit or not)
lot's of other rules, but do start with these two.
Of course there are exceptions to every rule but those are rare and certainly hard to predict.
bob
PS: I look at the companies balance sheet first
SPLUNGE!!!!!!!!!
If you knew how the marks would react, you could be the next multi-billionaire. Absolutely no one knows.
Interesting.
Psychological top was likely hit when investors began calling their 401K's, 802K's
Very, very interesting. I retired at 59 1/2 in 2007. I was burned out in my consulting work. So retired. When you can retire, DO IT. I see these corrections so often and I really try to ignore them. Years ago I reduced our debt to zero. So now at age 70 1/2, I obviously watch but try to keep a conservative eye on the real whole picture. I do not invest for the quick profit or worry about cashing in my profits. At my "delicate" age, I invest for protecting my nest egg and also reducing income tax. I found some very well performing funds that do just that. So I am trusting their program. For me, I really look at investing, if the market really goes to poop, I will just sell all and slowly withdraw only enough to satisfy the federal government tax wise (RMD) and other than that satisfy our monthly needs. I no longer look for quick profit, however if the market works in my favor go for returns.
Remember no matter what the DJIA is showing, the economy is definitely doing very well. Actually right now, if you had the available funds with this down turn now is a great time to buy more. That given be conservative and buy funds that will protect your investment, however, allow for some growth. I will no offer any funds to do that, however, just offer the advice, do not give up. Ignoring and political hoopla, the economy in the USA is doing very good. So stick with it.
__Some of the data over the past couple of weeks have caused some discomfort with rising 30yr rates, but I last bought more at 3.23%
Meant to say rising 10yr rates, and I bought more at 3.23%
Wow I am totally confused what you were invested in. I had a Keogh fund (self invested) and then rolled it over to a self-directed IRA. With the self directed IRA I am totally open to what I invest in. I ended up selecting funds that for me are almost tax-free. They are tax consideration invested funds. I will not divulge funds as I absolutely do not want to recommend a fund. However, as much as I can I try to ignore market downturns as we are having now. Because the funds I invest in actually make money from these kind of market actions, their price may drop, however, you have to keep in mind, that is how they make their profit. I.E. puts, options, etc. Very complicated, however, in one point, they are way beyond my concept of investing, however, after all these years, they obviously know so much more than me in this investing world, I am confident in their performance. Individual stock picking is absolutely so risky that at my age I will not ever attempt that. These stock fund investors are paid to perform and you are well advised to (after study) go with them.
I prefer real time and up to date business news than reading charts.
The gap got filled, now what?
I do see another gap at 23,000
Easy math EOC, is that the high earning multiples will not survive a sustained increase in interest rates. If you believe that the 10yr note rate is going to return to it's historical average of 4% or higher, bearish is the call.
Update: The market is kinda doing what I expected. The VIX is climbing. My holdings stand at 67% Out of the market in Stable a Bond Fund producing dividends and 33% still in the market.
Everyone was so positive when I got out at 26050, sentiment seems to be changing. Not ready to get back in until I see Panic! Watch the VIX
Buy-and-hold at the appropriate asset allocation (AA), with rebalancing when required to return to the AA, has been excellent for my financial health over the past 25 years or so. Jumping in and out based on the signal du jour is the path to financial destruction.
Turbulence... timing is key. 😎
LOL, Please post your opinion in my nonsense discussion about stacking coins. THANKS!
Get out your loupe
...it is there!
I did not make a move for ten years. I saw the chart as unsustainable and needed some fixing. I do not day trade as I know from experience that is a way to go broke.
I will go all in in a growth fund when the VIX tells me to.
Could be soon, could be 6 to 8 months from now.
No worries.
YIKES! OLD THREAD ALERT.
Best of all we can see how everyone's predictions worked out.
It's an everything bubble. Equities are one of the first to pop.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Not ready to buy. The VIX needs to spike. We need Panic in the streets
Bahhh!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Somebody please post the current chart for Decembrrrrrrrr!
SPLUNGE!!!!!!!
@ErrorsOnCoins, VIX is a nice thing to watch for timing and direction. You might get your spike(s) -- Feb2018 -- soon. I'm thinking early Feb2019.... just in time for 4qtr/full year data to arrive. Slowing growth and slowing inflation. Looks like 4qtr GDP is going to have a "1" print. Market is way above that now...
In any case, there is always a bullish trend somewhere.
It will be interesting to see how the end of the year “window dressing” goes for equities.
Or tax loss selling
Or option hedges if they won't sell in 2018. Think your VIX is going to like that !?!
It's interesting that @ErrorsOnCoins AND @FadeToBlack can use the same trigger to execute their trade position. EOC will go long and FTB can close his short!