OT: DJIA Chart
ctf_error_coins
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I know my dad did not coin the phase but he would say to me, " You can not go broke taking a profit"
Unfortunately, I did not take that advice during the internet boom /bust. 7 K to 100K to zero K. LMAO lessons learned.
I have been studying the DJIA chart for the last month. Right now there is a gap above and a gap below. Most gaps get filled, not all.
I do know that the economy is on fire right now, plus great economic / Nafta news today. A nice spike. I expect the upper gap to be filled in the next few days. Feels like I am playing Russian Roulette Tho.
Most Bull Markets do not last much longer than 9 years. We are in a 9 year plus bull market right now. I see one of two things happening very soon. There is the gap above and above that a DJIA high. Will the market fail that test ( Double Top) or blow through it? That is the big question in my mind. The VIX is kinda low which scares me, LOL
Besides all the other risks in the world, you HAVE to look at political risk.
Mueller will be coming out with a report at some point in the future. Not saying anything political here, it is just a potential fact. No one knows whats in the report.
There is not suppose any political news coming out of the DOJ the last two months before an election (ya, ya, ya, I know) . I do not think his report will be ready in the next week or so but other bombshells could certainly drop. Cutoff date SHOULD be the beginning out Sept.
We changed our investments today taking some out of stock. We went with 33% in a stock fund and 67% in a capital preservation fund. If the dow hit 30,000 we will go 100% capital preservation fund. If the market tanks, then we will go 100% stock fund.
Should be fun.
Please discuss the DJIA Chart, VIX Chart, The Economy and make this a learning thread and stay away from politics.
Comments
I agree that you can’t go broke taking profits but missed opportunities can be expensive. People who stayed out of the market during the run up may have just as much money as they did when they got out, but think about how they could have done had they bought in at the bottom.
Al that said I have no idea how the market will react to any of this.
My Ebay Store
I am not a chartist.
I am also in for the long haul so I don't get upset by corrections along the way. Has worked for me for the last 45 years.
I'm still diversified but still about 65% in stocks.
But I am protected with stop-limit orders in case of a free fall.
“In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." - Thomas Jefferson
My digital cameo album 1950-64 Cameos - take a look!
Most stock "analysis", no matter how sophisticated, whether classical or innovative, ends up looking like, "Could go up....could go down".
I stopped trying to guess a LONG time ago....
Heard several analysts on CNBC suggest a 10% run for the remainder of the year. I'm spread across SP500 and NASDAQ but watching closely.
I know and agree. But.
Picking tops is hard to do.
I do think it could run to almost 30K. We do have 1/3 in the market as of today.
The VIX is too complacent, IMO, that could be a scary sign.
We have have been in the market this time for 10 years and it has gone up 9 and a half of those years. Stocks never go up forever. Still not enough hype, I think I sold early. Just more cautious now. Really want to protect Big gains. Plan to get back in after .....?
I thank you all for your opinions. I have been severely screwed in the stock market in the past. Never coins, those have appreciated greatly.
When it comes to the overall market, I'm not a fan of charts. I am a fan of news and predicting news.....ie will there be a trade deal with Canada now that Mexico completed one? Will No Korea reneg on its denuke deal? Will the Fed move too fast raising interest rates? etc. Too many variables can disrupt (positively or negatively) the short term movements of the Dow.........My prediction: I believe the market moving forward will be... new trade deals will be created now that Mexico has done one. Other Countries will not want to be left behind. I believe this will set the Dow to reach new highs, Assuming wars and terrorist attacks from interfering. JMO
Yes, a trade deal with Canada would spike the market even more.
Perhaps sell the news, I don't know. Just trying to do the right thing for my families financial future.
Thanks all for the insight.
I'm one of those people who has been sitting on the sidelines and have kicked myself at each progressive peak. Hindsight is 20/20.
I am not a chartist but I sure do like to look at charts.
It definitely says it will either go up or down a lot, IMO
Or Up then down a lot, IMO
Personally, I can not see after 9 and a half years of a bull market that it goes up, up up.
Off topic, move it to the PM forum which at least is tangentially connected to equities.
From the King of OT disguised as something else. Good one. LOL.
The reason I asked, Is because I feel that there are some extremely smart people on the US Coin forum that can help me learn.
Einstein can't help you.
Ya, think.
He is dead.
@Cameonut
"But I am protected with stop-limit orders in case of a free fall."
I use to feel this way also but I believe limit orders would be useless in a market free fall. As a hedge against normal up and down I'm all for limit orders.
Successful BST transactions with lordmarcovan, Moldnut, erwindoc
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That a really good way to be taken out on an intentional spike down BEFORE a big upswing
What is cool is that we come can back to this thread as the market progresses. I put my mark down. I put my money where my mouth is. I will be proven wrong or right.
I am not picking a top yet. I am picking a 2/3 top.
So you intend on bumping an off topic thread. Good gosh.
Sensitive today, are your panties in a twist? Geez
How about this, 4 minutes after my one post I had another thought and posted it.
Ya bumping a thread already on top makes a helluva lotta sense.
How about his, maybe learn something instead of making snarky comments.
Or not, you do seem to know it all. How about some wisdom.
I am traditionally a technician versus being a fundamentalist, but in this case I must cut to the chase. Let’s ask Jim Cramer his take on the market!!
In all seriousness, September and October are historically the worst months for the stock market. Let’s see what happens.
Thank you for your input.
It seems that what is going on now will be so obvious in future hindsight.
It all depends on where you place the limit orders to bail out. I have a fair amount of risk tolerance so my exit point is designed to handle most downward spikes.
Others actually manage my accounts, so if a big downturn occurs with a big rebound, I expect they will put me back in the market where I got off. (or at least close).
I used to manage my investment accounts myself. I did quite well over the years.
Then I found a professional investment advisor that thought like I did and I hired him to do the day-to-day worrying. Best move I ever made. He knows my risk tolerance and longer term outlook. He does quite well so I am happy.
Investing has become more of a minefield since I got my MBA in 1982 - I can't even begin to understand all the nuances of the markets these days, much less all the options available. I learned in the '80s that you can't time the market so I stayed for the long haul - trusting that the US economy would be a great place to be. Later, in order to reduce risk, I have ventured into international equities, but don't like the exchange rate risk with fluctuating currency values.
And never forget that the world markets today are far different than they were decades ago. Things change - that is what makes it fun.
“In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." - Thomas Jefferson
My digital cameo album 1950-64 Cameos - take a look!
We discuss this type of stuff on the precious metals forums
Sorry, I never go there. I do not do PM's
I know you all here and respect almost all of your opinions and insights on a multitude of subjects.
Care to add your insight here on this subject on the US coin forum?
I was curious about this so I just looked it up. September is the worst by a good bit, followed by February. I was quite surprised as the most memorable crashes happened in October.
It doesn’t make sense to measure the length of a bull market because it isn’t a well-defined observation. It certainly has been a well-sustained run but there were decent pullbacks in 2011 and 2015.
I manage financial risk for a living and I am nervous about the current levels. Of course, I’ve thought the same thing for a while now and I’ve been wrong thus far! If you are curious about a well-constructed portfolio given a time horizon and risk tolerance send me a PM.
Thank you but I think I got a handle on it.
I do thank you for your insight and it seems I might be on the right track.
The largest part of our portfolio is my coin inventory which just keeps on growing so that is my main focus.
I have been thinking about this stock to preservation allotment for some time now. I like selling on spike ups. Thus the move today.
Time will certainly tell.
In a free fall a stop limit order will likely not get executed. Should use a market order instead.
While your order may get skipped in the event of a flash crash or similar price jump, a market order could potentially hit a bad tick, which has its own risk.
Well, I was wrong as the Dow closed up 14 points
Listening to the commentary, seems everyone is super bullish .....
"A dog breaks your heart only one time and that is when they pass on". Unknown
My advice: If you don't need access to the money for 5+ years, stay long. Timing the market is very, very difficult.
Dave
Looks like an overinflated pig to me but then again a company stops making a profit just replace them with another to keep the party going. Up, up and up. Ponzi 101.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Try it, you'll like it.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
When I reopen the Gold Mining Claim this fall / winter perhaps
Compare how the DJIA chart and the MS64 PCGS Morgan set chart for the last 20 years compare.
There, it is now on topic.
https://www.pcgs.com/pricehistory#/?=7072-64,index84 I could only do one MS64 Morgan and don't know how to copy the chart, but their is the link.
I retired from the semiconductor industry 8 years ago, and put my pension (lump sum) into equities. I have a 401K, stock options and profit sharing, but that is it, no "guaranteed" check, unless I want to start taking Soc Sec, but I am delaying it due to have a young wife (she can use the widow benefits later). When I retired, the company stock was at 16. It now is at $115. I sold a lot after it hit $50, roughly 10% for every $10 increase. Do I wish I had kept it all til now? Yes, but it could have gone right back down (dot come it was at $100, and tanked). Fat Hogs get slaughtered.
I worked for Amazon to keep from getting bored, and took stock options in lieu of a higher paycheck. They are worth far more than what I ever made, and they are guard banded. If Amazon drops more than 10%, 50% go away. etc.
For some, the stock market is the ONLY way they will ever see a "fortune". I had a single woman working for me, very nice, hard worker, making less than $22 an hour, IIRC, in her 60's. She came to me one day, VERY apologetic, she was quitting that day, no notice, had to go, sorry sorry sorry.
Short version: She had been with the company over 35 years. Profit sharing was paid in the form of company stock, that could not be touched while an employee, only after leaving the company. This was during Dot Com, and the stock had been marching straight up, and she could not stand it anymore, she had to cash out. She was the only one I knew who hit it on the Dot Com High for the day, about $100 a share. 18 months later, it was $15. I asked her if she was going to be OK, as she was too young for Social Security. She told me, very embarrassed, that her profit sharing account had gone from roughly $300K to over $5 million in about 18 months, and she could not focus on work anymore, and knew if it collapsed, she could never make it up again.
I was extremely happy for her,even though I lost a great worker.
Mustangmanbob I agree with the above, but for the part about the common ms64 morgan dollar. It is very irrelevant in my case because of the price increase of major error coins over that 20 year period.
I agree to stay invested for the long haul. We have not made a move in 10 years. I just have a hunch. We made a partial move of 67% assets to a 2% capital preservation fund waiting for a crash / correction. We will get back in for the long term. I just got a hunch.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/29/second-estimate-of-q2-2018-gdp.html
GDP growth revised up this morning, Canada will be bending the knee to stay in NAFTA and other countries will follow to jump on the gravy train. New trade deals will continue to spur the growth for US jobs....and hopefully helping wages increase as well.
The DJIA is also not the greatest index to go off for technicals and chart reading, but that's just my opinion. Different strokes for different folks. Sounds like your risk tolerance has changed a bit, which is normal. Sounds like you re-adjusted holdings which is good. Your investments should always be working for you, not keeping you awake at night.
Shadydave, Thank you, lmao for sure my risk has changed.
During the 2000 internet run up / bust, I was fully Margined !!!!
Job growth? Heh, gotta keep them burgers flippin. Only trading going on around here is flipping big macs for diabetes. $$$$ Semper Fi!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I briefly toyed with the idea of market charting, timing, trading, etc.
The vast majority of my invested assets are in the Government employee 401(k), (Thrift Savings Plan, by name). And up until maybe 2010(?), it was unlike MOST 401(k)'s in that it allowed active trading since there was no penalty, or fees, or limits on moving from fund to fund. (Rather unfair in that a small number of "traders" were responsible for most of the trading costs borne by the entire population of investors....so they finally ended the practice by putting transaction limits on everyone...one move a month, or some such.)
Anyway, I followed a message board specifically dedicated to trading in the TSP. With a limited number (6) well known and daily reported investment funds available, it was easy for them to track EVERYONE'S returns if they all posted their moves. (They didn't have to post $$ values, just percentage invested in each fund, and when they made changes.)
I watched, learned, and even made a few trades when I "felt the urge". Then I took the time to look at everyone's returns. Compared to just leaving their investments in a "normal" diversified allocation, (whatever I determined that to be at the time), for the 18 month time span I looked at, about 30% of the people were doing WORSE.....maybe 50% were pretty much the same....and only 20% were actually beating the "normal". And based on the (lack of) logic I witnessed, I had no reason to believe that 20% didn't rotate frequently, and over a longer term, I'm not sure ANYONE was really beating the system to any great degree.
So, i gracefully bowed out, put everything into a pre-allocated "lifecycle fund", and stopped watching.
The funniest guy was the one who ran the message board. In the entire time I followed it, (maybe 2 years), he was SURE there was a market crash coming. And all of his assets were in a low yield government bond fund for the entire time. I stopped watching before the "crash" in 2007 or 2008, but I'm sure he was proud of himself about missing that. Unfortunately, he also missed the entire run-up before that, and if I were placing a bet, he probably missed the entire run-up AFTER that waiting for a second dip. But, he considered himself a master trader. In reality, he was just scared.
I'm getting to the age of being more careful about my allocations, just for safety, but I think I'll still leave the active trading to someone else.....
34 years of putting 12-18% in a 401K... the first 30 years were growth,growth,growth the last few where preservation."tweeked" my portfolio to mainstay dividend stock mutual funds.
Dollar cost average....
Don't worry about peaks and bottoms,the main thing everyone should do is to start early and "pay yourself first"
Will actually retire in Oct. at the age of 59 1/2
I was buying upon you selling
..... I can afford to weather a fews corrections for the average longterm gain 
Thanks all and I agree about leaving it alone an not tweaking it.
"lifecycle fund" Yes, ours is in something similar which bonds out more near retirement.
Remember Ten years of no changes so far. Excellent growth admitted. 33% still in.
Honestly, I do think it will go lower in the near term of now to months from now upon whatever news.
The chart looks hard to maintain long-term without some relaxing, read correction.
I am looking for 20 to 30 % to pop back in 100% and then forget about it. If less then so be it .
If this happens, my wife will think I am a genius.
I am selling gold and silver right now
Stock charts are only good for analyzing the past, not predicting the future.
true, but if I am buying, I want the VIX to be spiking
I think there's another problem with "charting" right now. The landscape has changed recently!
That huge tax cut to corporations has ballooned their profits! Beyond those paper profits, they are buying back stock, and driving up stock prices even more. Any charting assuming the old tax system is going to assume this is a bubble...right? Yet, it might go on for quite some time(?) (And I'm not sure there is any common wisdom for guessing when it does POP).....
I'm not sure that it's good for the economy long term, (DEFICIT!!) But right now, those of us lucky enough to have investments can sheepishly reap some gains.
@ErrorsOnCoins
You are still young and has so much in the tank growing your business....
C'mon don't go chicken on your portfolio! 80/20 is conservative enough given your current financial well being as long as your liquid is sufficient enough to survive in a down time.
P.S: I am more than happy to bump it up
I agree and a lot of that is priced in. Future earnings will tell the market which way to go.
IMO, the exception, which is just my hunch, could be a news driven event that hits the market hard.
Short term, If the market goes to new highs, I expect a very nice upward spike.
I am a gambler at heart and ten years is a long time to do nothing.