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New York Bank Hoard of 16,000 Morgan Dollars
erwindoc
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Thoughts on this and what it will do to coin prices? Just graded at NGC.
2
erwindoc
Posts: 4,927 ✭✭✭✭✭
erwindoc
Posts: 4,927 ✭✭✭✭✭
erwindoc
Posts: 4,927 ✭✭✭✭✭
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The market is already oversaturated for most of these dates. I predict little to no effect.
it's hard to imagine that this WON'T affect prices in an adverse way, and at a time when prices are soft and getting softer. that is a lot of Morgans for the market to absorb and it is probably deflating to many, many collectors that something like this will directly affect their holdings.
Unless there are quantities of scarcer dates this won't affect the market at all.
There was a good date and grade analysis of the expected market effect on Coin Week from July 9th.
CoinWeek First Look at the Pops of the New York Bank Morgan Dollar Hoard
https://coinweek.com/us-coins/coinweek-first-look-at-the-pops-of-the-new-york-morgan-dollar-hoard/
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
Maybe pressure on MS67 1887s.
I wonder if any interesting VAMs?
Glad to see a few toners.......................
Who is a buyer of these Morgan's at current prices?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Sixteen bags of mostly common date Morgan dollars is nothing at all when you are talking 330 million people in the good old USA. Not even a ripple.
Geez !!!
Any thoughts on the price range of these?
CoinFacts ranks 8 of the dates tied for 94th place out of 117 for rarity by series. 2 are ranked at 87th, and 1 is ranked at 81st. Maybe move them back on the rarity by series?
I’d say less than 1% or <3MM would know what a Morgan dollar is even if it hits them on the face, much have interest or collect them.
@KollectorKing And so what is 16,000 coins among 3,300,000 persons?
You may know what a Morgan Dollar is, but you're math challenged.
Sorry I know neither.
If you say you don't know what a Morgan Dollar is, how can I disagree?
You mostly post photos of coins that don't belong to you, anyway.
Bottom line caught you exaggerating/overstating by app. 99% give or take?
No, there are 330 million persons in the U.S.A. No exaggeration, probably ten million shy.
Wrong again:
Population of US:
United States of America/Population
325.7 million (2017)
1950
2000
400M
400M
300M
300M
200M
200M
100M
100M
0
0
Dude get your facts straight before you put your foot in your mouth.
The current population of the United States of America is 326,846,792 as of Sunday, July 15, 2018, based on the latest United Nations estimates. the United States population is equivalent to 4.28% of the total world population. the U.S.A. ranks number 3 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population.
There are small rounding errors, plus the statisticians have been told not to count a lot of folks who are here but possibly shouldn't be.
Per Wikipedia
Jump to Population density · The United States is estimated to have a population of 327,996,618 as of June 25, 2018, making it the third most populous country in the world.
Growth rate: 0.71% (2017-2018 est.)
Nationality: American
That’s mostly because I’ve sold all my favs looong time ago: triple barber qtr keys, 89cc, 79cc, 94p, 93cc, but I have these
Where do you post yours or anyone else’s?
Regardless, that is a lot of Morgan dollars to a guy like me. I think it would be really cool to see something like that coming out of a bank vault regardless of the rarity. Can you imagine how much fun it must of been picking through those bags looking for gem coins?
Wanna see more of MY coins
The question was something along the lines of how many Morgans would it take to disrupt the normal market (or even a 'weak' market).
16 bags of common date Morgans is not enough, even if the coins are in above average condition.
I've been in the happy position where one coin can be quite exciting, if it's the "right" coin.
Are we really arguing over 326 million v. 330 million as a population projection for the U.S.? I'm confused.
But, but, doesn't my nephew who was born this afternoon count? Make that 326,846,793.
Just checked, there are just under 3,000 Registry sets of Morgan Dollars at NGC and PCGS combined. That's less than 6 coins available for each set. I'd guess if there is any impact on the market it will be small and temporary. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see several "New York Bank Hoard" registry sets show up in the near future.
it's crackers to slip a rozzer the dropsy in snide
Think of it this way: It is analogous to dropping a four ton boulder in the middle of Lake Michigan. It may make a splash (garner attention), but the level of water displacement long term is effectively nil.
There are quite a few MS-63’s in this hoard. Some dealers may try to sell them at a premium because of the pedigree to customers that don’t care about what they are really worth, but like the story behind the coin. Hopefully the coins will be graded fairly tight. I had a guy try to dump an MS-63 common date Binion dollar on me because of the pedigree. It was a borderline 60 at best.
I would bet that most, if not all of the 64 and below will show up on TV - the NY Hoard "pedigree" is perfect for the TV coin hucksters to sell to suckers for 2 to 3 times retail.
This thread went from being about morgans to coins they own and population lmao
My Instagram
I guess the 1889 bag was not as nice as the original thread image showed? No 67's from that bag.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1000421/16-000-morgan-dollars-hoard-to-hit-the-market-soon/p1
So, they hype the 67's as rare in terms of how many they graded? Pre-marketing at it's best!
As a buyer: QualityCurrencycom, tychojoe, AurumMiner, Collectorcoins, perfectstrike, ModCrewman, LeeBone, nickel, REALGATOR, MICHAELDIXON, pointfivezero, Walkerguy21D
Trades: georgiacop50
Nature's first green is gold,
Her hardest hue to hold.
Her early leaf's a flower;
But only so an hour.
Then leaf subsides to leaf.
So Eden sank to grief,
So dawn goes down to day,
Nothing gold can stay.
It would be fun to open an old bag of Morgans.... and to find a couple of 67's would be nice...Just from a collector's point of view. I doubt the market will be impacted.... Likely the TV hucksters will have a short lived selling spree...Cheers, RickO
Hoards discovered or recovered aren't that exciting but I bet JA will enjoy them.
I wonder what It cost to get them certified and encapsulated.
BTW there are multiple estimates for US population, not 1, all have official series names. I believe the one being quoted is the middle one. Also, no government stat is considered final for 2 or 3 years after it is published, so we won't know what the real number is for today's pop, until at least 2020. Welcome to my world.
Just thinking out loud, I would presume the NGC prices would fall if anything.
Will this effect upper end host (PCGS) examples? I believe not.
Especially CAC examples.
But it will effect NGC hoarders of said dates - in generic grades, or so it seems. jmho.
Just fatten Dealers stocks for awhile
Steve
I bet they're CONTINENTAL DOLLARS !!!!
Yep, that's what I bet.
my comment is/was meant to pertain to the dates involved in the hoard, the increase in available graded coins won't affect other dates, how/why could it??
perhaps, as someone mentioned above, the coins will enter via telemarketers and be able to be moved, but overall the price on these mostly common dates in MS63-64 will fall. maybe not now, maybe not next month, but eventually the dealers will have them and they will stagnate in inventory.
look at a date like 1878-S or 1881-S: there are far too many of them available right now. judging what I see, an NGC market graded MS63-64 of these dates is an unlovely creature that often can't find a home.
This is exactly what I thought when I read the article. Tailor made!
What does it matter 326 million v. 330 million If there are only 300 buyers that may only want one or two or none of them. I think they are not good for the market. To much water is to much and will take time for it to soak in.
There will be overflow.
Hoard the keys.
Type collectors or those that only do one per date or something comparable... Very few do date and mint mark collections. The 1889 CC and 1893 S are tough in choice to gem BU and are stoppers (among others) for many who might otherwise do a full date and mint mark set. Generic Morgan Dollars basically all look a like with some exceptions (e.g. redesigned 1921 die).
That's basically the point that others are making. The supply is so huge that demand will never come close to catching up, so prices will stay low. There becomes a certain point, however, where it doesn't really matter any more. It is like taking 6 bullets to the heart versus 7 - it's over either way.
One of the dates in the hoard is the 1880-S. There are 2,000 of those in the hoard. PCGS has certified more than 100,000 of these in MS63-MS64, and NGC has certified close another 100,000. At this grade level crossovers are de minimis and may only occur for high end monster toners. Ditto for regrades. What's another 2,000 coins to 200,000+ extant PCGS/NGC coins (1% increase in supply)? There are thousands more raw. Even at the lofty grade of MS67, the services have graded nearly 6,000 pieces so will 28 more MS67s make that much of a difference (<0.005%)? I don't think so.
P.S. My numbers don't include PL or DPL/DMPL populations. That increases the supply of competing 1880-S coins even more.
Curious about the pieces illustrated and labeled in the Coin Week article. Nearly all of them seem to be over graded. The 1878-S can't be MS64 -- scruffy, baggy and MS-62. Naturally, any presumptions are just BS when it comes to trying to grade from tiny photos -- they just look "odd" to me.
Seems like every month another "Hoard" of Morgan's is found.
Maybe the hoards will get together and form a herd? or a gaggle? or a pod?
well, one thing is clear from the "critiques" of my replies --- my first hand experiences aren't the same as everyone else. this much I will say:
1.) I tend to see more collectors who are assembling sets than collectors who just want a nice Morgan Dollar.
2.) as a general rule, buyers don't differentiate "price guide prices" when it comes to the various TPG's.
3.) it doesn't really matter how many coins of a specific grade PCGS/NGC have graded, if those coins go unsold then adding to that number won't help.
I am glad I don't collect Morgan Dollars.