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A stupid and costly grading experiment: Results are in.
RYK
Posts: 35,799 ✭✭✭✭✭
Today I sent off 7 NGC-graded New Orleans gold coins for crossover service. Allowing 3 days to arrive in CA, 2 days to get processed, and 7 days to grade, I should have the results in two weeks.
Here are the coins and what I think about their chances. (In parentheses, the current PCGS population for each in the current grades, and higher grades):
1. 1859-O $10 NGC-45: No brainer cross. An original, no problem coin that is solid for the grade. So dirty that a trip to NCS might get the coin bumped to 50, but not on my watch! (10/19)
2. 1855-O $10 NGC-58: Lustrous, but dipped, overall very attractive; the coin is all there. One rim hit at 12 o'clock on the obverse detracts. I have noticed that the plastic edge of the NGC holder tends to magnify or call one's attention to any rim issues. Slim chance of crossover. (1/2)
3. 1857-O $20 NGC-45: Nice, original choice XF-45 coin. Should cross. (21/57)
4. 1856-O $10 NGC-55: I used to think that this coin was overgraded but have since seen numerous 55 in PCGS holders similarly struck with sunken dies. At any rate, this is the only coin in which I indicated a minimum grade below that the coin is currently graded (53). (3/8)
5. 1846-O $10 NGC-53: Really nice coin for the grade, but who knows? 50-50. (3/0)
6. 1852-O $10 NGC-55: One of my personal favorites in my New Orleans $10 collection. Should cross. (5/3)
7. 1844-O $10 NGC-58: Very nice coin, but again, who knows? (4/2)
Grade aside, one thing that goes against any of these AU coins crossing is that we are getting into the low pop/condition census range, and from what I hear, PCGS is resistent to make new coins in the stratosphere grades.
Final prediction:
The XF coins both cross (2/2), and one AU (1/5) crosses.
Here are the coins and what I think about their chances. (In parentheses, the current PCGS population for each in the current grades, and higher grades):
1. 1859-O $10 NGC-45: No brainer cross. An original, no problem coin that is solid for the grade. So dirty that a trip to NCS might get the coin bumped to 50, but not on my watch! (10/19)
2. 1855-O $10 NGC-58: Lustrous, but dipped, overall very attractive; the coin is all there. One rim hit at 12 o'clock on the obverse detracts. I have noticed that the plastic edge of the NGC holder tends to magnify or call one's attention to any rim issues. Slim chance of crossover. (1/2)
3. 1857-O $20 NGC-45: Nice, original choice XF-45 coin. Should cross. (21/57)
4. 1856-O $10 NGC-55: I used to think that this coin was overgraded but have since seen numerous 55 in PCGS holders similarly struck with sunken dies. At any rate, this is the only coin in which I indicated a minimum grade below that the coin is currently graded (53). (3/8)
5. 1846-O $10 NGC-53: Really nice coin for the grade, but who knows? 50-50. (3/0)
6. 1852-O $10 NGC-55: One of my personal favorites in my New Orleans $10 collection. Should cross. (5/3)
7. 1844-O $10 NGC-58: Very nice coin, but again, who knows? (4/2)
Grade aside, one thing that goes against any of these AU coins crossing is that we are getting into the low pop/condition census range, and from what I hear, PCGS is resistent to make new coins in the stratosphere grades.
Final prediction:
The XF coins both cross (2/2), and one AU (1/5) crosses.
0
Comments
Looking for alot of crap.
RYK
Being a newb on this, I must ask....why didn't you crackout?
Two reasons:
1. I am afraid that the coin will get harmed by me or in transit.
2. I did not want to risk the coin getting bagged or significantly downgraded for fear of further financial pain. On the other hand, I think having the coin submitted as a crossover reduces the chance of it getting crossed.
3. A propos to #2, I am a chicken.
If you hear the big sucking sound on this experiment.......
try it again in 6 months with crackouts and mix things up...
The way a friend of mine sells over priced dogs is to stick them individually between two Ferrari's. The dog looks cheap by comparison.
Works every time. You need to borrow some 63-66 stuff.
Don't the dealers try it until they succeed?
Didn't one artist just return 11,000 broken cases back to PCGS?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Because I felt like subjecting my coins to this costly and stupid experiment.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
If the submission yields knowledge about how PCGS grades with respect to NGC, that knowledge is valuable. It may even give you a bit of a competitive advantage.
I consider these types of submissions to be like "tuition for my coin grading education". When viewed in that light, it can hardly be called stupid unless you go overboard unnecessarily.
“In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." - Thomas Jefferson
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Reece, the coin blahs are history! I am fully engaged.
myCCset
The good news is that the most valuable coin in the group (59-O $10) crossed to 45, as did the 57-O $20 (ahem, Reece).
The 56-O $10 crossed from NGC AU-55 to PCGS AU-53. I allowed the one point drop because I thought the coin might be aggressively graded. In retrospect, the coin is a dead ringer for the 1848-O $10 in PCGS AU-55 that I own.
The 55-O $10 AU-58, as expected, did not cross.
The 44-O, 46-O, and 52-O all did not cross. I have seen lesser coins in like grade PCGS holders, and I would guess that if I cracked the coins out and resubmitted them, one or two would cross, maybe all eventually.
<< <i>The 56-O $10 crossed from NGC AU-55 to PCGS AU-53. I allowed the one point drop >>
I've been out of school a long time, but I'm pretty sure 55 minus 53 is two points.
Russ, NCNE
By convention, many of those of us that buy/sell circulated coins consider each grading step on the grading scale to be a point.
<< <i>
<< <i>The 56-O $10 crossed from NGC AU-55 to PCGS AU-53. I allowed the one point drop >>
I've been out of school a long time, but I'm pretty sure 55 minus 53 is two points.
Russ, NCNE >>
Please show me an AU-54 coin.....
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Yes, I could probably buy one or two for the Dansco with the proceeds from those.
I really do have to do this. I am going to wait a few months before doing so. This really is STUPID and COSTLY.
<< <i>This really is STUPID and COSTLY. >>
Nah, as you are an MD, I know you understand the value of research.
edited: cause I dont write good.
<< <i>IM(very humble)O, the 59-O $10 crossing paid for the rest (and then some). >>
Absolutely! Congratulations!
Our eBay auctions - TRUE auctions: start at $0.01, no reserve, 30 day unconditional return privilege & free shipping!
<< <i>Please show me an AU-54 coin.....
Give the TPGs a little time.
Maybe it's just me with a jaded attitude, but having coins not cross that should cross just seems like a stupid, biased game. You've seen coins of the same quality in pcgs holders, but they do not want to grade yours because they came from ngc plastic??
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Agree, but there are some people I know and many I don't know who will only buy coins in PCGS holders. No one I know will only buy coins in NGC holders.
Maybe it's just me with a jaded attitude, but having coins not cross that should cross just seems like a stupid, biased game.
Hence, the stupid (and costly) experiment.
<< <i>Results are in and are mixed, but not unexpected.
The good news is that the most valuable coin in the group (59-O $10) crossed to 45, as did the 57-O $20 (ahem, Reece).
The 56-O $10 crossed from NGC AU-55 to PCGS AU-53. I allowed the one point drop because I thought the coin might be aggressively graded. In retrospect, the coin is a dead ringer for the 1848-O $10 in PCGS AU-55 that I own.
The 55-O $10 AU-58, as expected, did not cross.
The 44-O, 46-O, and 52-O all did not cross. I have seen lesser coins in like grade PCGS holders, and I would guess that if I cracked the coins out and resubmitted them, one or two would cross, maybe all eventually.
Remember sometimes if there is something questionable and not visible because of the slab it automatically does not cross for the same grade. If it was raw or set to cross at any grade it may have gotten the same grade once seeing it out of the slab.
<< <i>
<< <i>Results are in and are mixed, but not unexpected.
The good news is that the most valuable coin in the group (59-O $10) crossed to 45, as did the 57-O $20 (ahem, Reece).
The 56-O $10 crossed from NGC AU-55 to PCGS AU-53. I allowed the one point drop because I thought the coin might be aggressively graded. In retrospect, the coin is a dead ringer for the 1848-O $10 in PCGS AU-55 that I own.
The 55-O $10 AU-58, as expected, did not cross.
The 44-O, 46-O, and 52-O all did not cross. I have seen lesser coins in like grade PCGS holders, and I would guess that if I cracked the coins out and resubmitted them, one or two would cross, maybe all eventually.
Remember sometimes if there is something questionable and not visible because of the slab it automatically does not cross for the same grade. If it was raw or set to cross at any grade it may have gotten the same grade once seeing it out of the slab. >>
In "A Stupid and Costly Experiment II", I tried another group with "cross at any grade" and most of the coins downgraded. I guess that experiment was stupid and more costly.
My OCD would have gone crazy seeing different slabs mixed together. It's worth the cost for me to have everything in one type of slab. Now I just wish PCGS would come out with something better, I'd like to see the edgeview and some kind of label on top added to thier holders.
I am thinking it will be easier to grade NGC coins in their new slabs now that they have edge view accross the board.
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<< <i>LOL, it reads like there was no pause in the last 4 years. >>
Good posts are always applicable.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>LOL, it reads like there was no pause in the last 4 years. >>
The scary part is that I actually remember this thread from when it was orginally posted. And yet, I can't remember parts of last week.
Mike
My how your perspective on things changes over time.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.