Eleven years is hardly a little window in time in anyones investment window. I believe gold will show a 12th consecutive year of increases. I'm not so sure on silver.
I am somewhat confident that silver will need a strong risk on market to thrive in. Therefore a strong stock market would be a positive for silver imo. Today would be a great example. Silver is a tiny tiny market and is easy manipulated in either direction. A weak stock market would be a tough market for silver to excel in regardless.
I continue to see a weaker dollar contrary to many and I think normalcy is still a ways off. I am encouraged by new home starts and I'm nibbling here.
A port with 5% in silver and 10-15% in gold I could still sleep at night. Silver is highly speculative and gold as financial insurance.
A lot of folks are forever out of the stock market and home ownership is no longer a possibility for many. Underwater is the new home equity.
No lay ups in the near future imo.
Some will always be anti precious metals. Like in 99% of financial advisor driven products. At the end of the day we must all pick our own poison.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Buying precious metals now would be a terrible investment, in my opinion. Silver and gold did moderately well from 2003-08 because it had very little downside left and the tech bust pushed investors into other investments, including commodities (not to mention Warren Buffet's 1998 purchase of 20% of the world's supply). Big surprise that metals began to finally move up. All the reasons that caused metals to skyrocket the last 2-3 years have greatly subsided -- the great recession is all but history, the economy is growing again (albeit slowly), and the most serious international calamities have all but disappeared. Only Europe's debt crisis has yet to be resolved and a growing number of investors believe it will be taken care of this year. That leaves gold and silver back where it was -- a high risk investment that only works with lucky timing and a world that's crashing to the floor. Pardon me if I don't wish anyone good luck with that one. In short, waiting to buy gold or silver is never a risk when there are so many other investment options that are much more predictable under normal conditions -- conditions that we are beginning to return to.
We heard the same din of how bad PM's were from 2004-2006. We know how that turned out. It's one of the reason why a special PMs forum was created. That way those that didn't want to continually hear how bullion was outperforming "real investments" wouldn't have to see it on a daily basis. The dollardudes of the world harped on the bulishness of stocks from 2004-2006 stating that metals would go nowhere. We know how that turned out (ie Dow/gold ratio from 42 to a current level of 8). Buffet sold his 120 MILL ounces of silver in the 2005-2006 time frame. It didn't play any real role in silver's rise other than to possibly stunt it. Rumor has it that silver was used for the startup of SLV. Imagine if SLV had to go out and buy a fresh 100 MILL oz of silver on the open market in 2006? Buffet's buying of silver in the late 1990's at $5-$7 per ounce really had no effect on the silver market as it ultimately bottomed in 1999-2001 at $4/oz. And if Warren really purchased 20% of the world's supply when no one cared (ie only 600 MILL oz left - or less than annual world production) then you'd better stock up quick before there is none left to buy. Industrial demand for silver is around 500 MILL oz per year. It's only recycled silver (and naked paper shorting) that was keeping prices from literally exploding. Junk silver can't be recycled indefinitely. The banksters briefly lost their handle on silver in early 2011. But 8 successive CME margin hikes returned their mojo. What are they going to do when silver's paper price eventually divorces from the physical price or silver traders play in a sandbox other than the Comex? How will they control it w/o the margin hike tool? They already lost much of their silver derivative's tool that worked so well in summer of 2008 when JPM held $190 BILL in silver otc derivatives by combining the Bear Stearns holdings with their own (ie shorting the equivalent of 12 yrs of world silver production).
Housing starts don't mean much when there is already a glut of houses, not to mention millions more in foreclosure or waiting to be foreclosed upon. At some point the former homeowners that are being allowed to stay in foreclosed properties will either have to leave or start paying again....regardless of the "bullish" 9% housing starts. No doubt there are pockets of good RE demand in the US. The real issue is the totality of RE demand and supply and its effect on GDP and economy as a whole. North Dakota is doing just fine. Good for them for watching their budgets during the boom years. Unfortunately NY, NJ, Florida, New England, Arizona, California, Pennslyvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Nevada and other states are not. There was no "good reason" for metals to increase from 2003-2011. But they did. Was there any chance that multiplying the nation's debt, credit, and fiat several times over those 10 yrs played a small role? Before we declare the recession over, there's a little issue of $327 TRILL in otc derivatives carried by our top 25 banks that need to be resolved. That's a can that just can't continue to be kicked down the road indefinitely. You cannot possibly restore our banking system to health w/o dealing with this. And 0% interest rates will never lead an economic recovery. Never. And rates can't be raised w/o killing the economy via debt payments. Over 80% of those $327 TRILL derivs are interest rate contracts helping to skew rates low to buy more time, a decade if needed. Derivatives are what took the economy down to begin with. We saw that destructive power in 1998 with LTCM and then a few years later with Enron. We still haven't dealt with the primary cause despite 4 yrs of trying and creating the FrankenDodd bill. Otc derivatives totalled $900 BILL in 1987. Then $100 TRILL by around 2002. Then $1.1 QUAD by 2008. Who knows how much larger today's number is because these are only what's reported to the BIS and OOC. The banks know they are literally dead and so do the regulators. The game from here is to loot what's left of the system while piling the dead assets into the FED, Fannie, Freddie, and Joe Six Pack. The other problem with $1.1 Quad in derivatives is that over 80% of them have maturities under 1 yr. They have to continually be turned over, much like the way US debt is going.
Currently there are 1,100,000,000,000,000 reasons for the price of silver and gold to continue to rise long term. That same number of reasons also apply to TBonds and fiat currency...in the other direction. $1.1 QUAD in world-wide otc derivatives is a huge problem. And a lesser part of that is probably $50-$100 TRILL in Credit Default Swaps as well as forex and metal contracts. The demand for gold is coming from far-sighted investors like central banks. China itself is trying to buy 750 tons of gold per year. There are another dozen CB's looking to add to their piles while western CB's continue to sell, lease, or swap theirs. World gold production is only worth around $135 BILL per year, silver around $27 BILL. These are both drops in the bucket compared to the TRILLIONs in currencies and bonds being created each year by the world's CB's. M2 increased by 10% last year or around $900 BILL....6X world gold and silver production. The USTreasury sold $200 BILL in bonds in Nov-Dec alone. Depreciating fiat is reflected in demand for bullion. The USA would be happy to buy all that bullion up with printed dollars if they could do it w/o jacking up the price of metals. But they can't. So other nations are happy to buy up the excess using printed fiat. Where did the demand come from during the 1970's to raise the gold and silver prices 25 to 35X? (note - it didn't come from J6P nor will it this time).
<< <i>One more thing. Like others, I too believe demand is the single, most important factor in coins and precious metals. Where is this "new and growing demand" coming from that will cause gold and silver prices to return to their historic highs of last year? The investors who made it happen are leaving in droves as other investment opportunities begin to brighten. Already, there are growing predictions of a darn good year in the stock market -- predictions that are based on a whole host of indicators that economists use to gauge upcoming trends. Sorry to burst anyone's bubble, but I just don't see gold and silver rising high again for a long, long time. The facts speak otherwise. >>
I really cannot get excited about predictions of a darn good year in the stock market. I see 2012 as a repeat of 2011.
Burst away. What exactly is a long, long time? While I agree it might not skyrocket in just a couple of years like in the past, gold and silver should still do well the next 5 years. I think gold and silver offer more peace of mind compared to the market. If I may ask how old are you? My parents are both in their seventies and riding the ups and downs of the stock market the last couple of years has been very stressful on them.
BTW I do appreciate you point of view and insight and appreciate the data. Thank you
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>Currently there are 1,100,000,000,000,000 reasons for the price of silver and gold to continue to rise long term. That same number of reasons also apply to TBonds and fiat currency...in the other direction. $1.1 QUAD in world-wide otc derivatives is a huge problem. And a lesser part of that is probably $50-$100 TRILL in Credit Default Swaps as well as forex and metal contracts. The demand for gold is coming from far-sighted investors like central banks. China itself is trying to buy 750 tons of gold per year. There are another dozen CB's looking to add to their piles while western CB's continue to sell, lease, or swap theirs. World gold production is only worth around $135 BILL per year, silver around $27 BILL. These are both drops in the bucket compared to the TRILLIONs in currencies and bonds being created each year by the world's CB's. M2 increased by 10% last year or around $900 BILL....6X world gold and silver production. The USTreasury sold $200 BILL in bonds in Nov-Dec alone. Depreciating fiat is reflected in demand for bullion. The USA would be happy to buy all that bullion up with printed dollars if they could do it w/o jacking up the price of metals. But they can't. So other nations are happy to buy up the excess using printed fiat. Where did the demand come from during the 1970's to raise the gold and silver prices 25 to 35X? (note - it didn't come from J6P nor will it this time). >>
I won't debate the doom and gloom scenarios you're describing but they still don't automatically equate into everyone rushing in to buy precious metals that would be needed to spike up prices again. Some folks will, of course, like yourself, but there are far more investors with far larger purse strings who could see things much differently than you. They see precious metals as a high risk venture, which it is and always will be and any historic price chart will bear this out. You could be right, but you haven't convinced me. Personally, I see a repeat of the post-1980 days for the next 20+ years:
1981: Silver will never get lower than $30/ounce ... buy now! 1984: Silver will never get lower than $20/ounce ... buy now! 1987: Silver will never get lower than $11/ounce ... buy now! 1990: Silver will never get lower than $9/ounce ... buy now! 1993: Silver will never get lower than $6/ounce ... buy now! 2002: Silver will never get lower than $5/ounce ... buy now! (gee, they finally got this one right)
True, there will be an occasional spike, but what we witnessed recently I don't see happening again for quite some time. Bottom line line is someone will need to provide some very hard and convincing evidence that things are somehow different this time before I jump in again Until then, I will sit on the sidelines and be content with being only a collector.
Anyway, I have enjoyed the discussion, roadrunner. You sound like you really know your stuff -- and good luck this year on whatever you choose to invest in. I'll look forward to revisiting this thread a year from now to see how things actually pan out. Alas, I may have to eat crow ... but then again, perhaps not. We shall see.
<< <i>I really cannot get excited about predictions of a darn good year in the stock market. I see 2012 as a repeat of 2011.
Burst away. What exactly is a long, long time? While I agree it might not skyrocket in just a couple of years like in the past, gold and silver should still do well the next 5 years. I think gold and silver offer more peace of mind compared to the market. If I may ask how old are you? My parents are both in their seventies and riding the ups and downs of the stock market the last couple of years has been very stressful on them.
BTW I do appreciate you point of view and insight and appreciate the data. Thank you >>
You're welcome, and I appreciate your input. I'm obviously somewhat new to these boards, although I have watched and read the threads for many years. Not to sound critical, but it seems there has been a gradual trend toward conversations of an investment/speculative nature rather than the pure collecting aspect of coins. Maybe these boards should be called INVESTORS UNIVERSE ... just kidding.
I'm 56, does that make me older than you? My parents are both in their 80's and knowing my conservative father, he would NEVER ever invest in precious metals, although I have encouraged him on several occasions. As I acknowledge in my above reply to roadrunner, I remember all too well the long period after 1980 where PM prices enjoyed a long and slow decline and I have no reason to believe it won't happen again this time. I hope I'm right because there are quite a few items I had been meaning to pick up that are now out of my price range, thanks to these last two years. Once upon a time, I had fun with metals but found I enjoyed the coins themselves much more, both for their historical significance and their artistic beauty.
Take care, and hope 2012 is a good year for you and everyone else here, too. I've learned a lot from many of you!
1) In 2011 silver rose 5% or more on seven different occasions.
2) In six of those seven cases, three days later silver was flat or lower
3) In only one case was silver higher three days later.
past performance does not guarantee future results
<2002: Silver will never get lower than $5/ounce ... buy now! (gee, they finally got this one right)>
and boy did they get it right...........MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
1981: Silver will never get lower than $30/ounce ... buy now! 1984: Silver will never get lower than $20/ounce ... buy now! 1987: Silver will never get lower than $11/ounce ... buy now! 1990: Silver will never get lower than $9/ounce ... buy now! 1993: Silver will never get lower than $6/ounce ... buy now! 2002: Silver will never get lower than $5/ounce ... buy now! (gee, they finally got this one right)
The above description perfect describes a 20 yr bear market, a typical cycle following a 17-18 yr silver bull (1962-1980). But why concentrate on the last bear cycle when the current 15-20 yr bull is only 10 yrs young and too soon to pack it in? Gold and silver have typically put in a series of 3 or more major moves in each bull cycle. Silver's last 3 major moves were from 1962-1967, 1970-1974, and 1977-1980. So many forget the first one because it was in the 1960's. But it still more than doubled up on the price of silver. Gold's first leg is nearly ignored because the public's price was fixed to $35/oz. Yet even in 1967-1969 the price of gold internationally increased from $35 to $44, a decent gain considering the London Gold Pool was in operation from 1962-1968 to suppress gold prices. During that time the LGP sold thousands of tons of G7 gold into the market to manage gold. Had they not done that the price would have doubled up just like silver's. But that would have to wait until August 1971 when gold convertability was officially ended. In any case so far Gold and Silver have at most put in 2 major moves where the 2nd one might still even be in progress. The 3rd one is still out there and maybe won't be seen for 1-2 yrs. In previous PMs bulls gold has done its best when the economy was weak and the Stock Market declining. If there is another occurrence of that into the 60/120 yr economic cycle bottoms (2012-2014) that would be an ideal opportunity for a gold and silver run. But considering that gold and silver did very well during a rising SM (2003-2008) and good economic conditions, their best performances (ie similar to 1977-1980) are probably yet to be seen.
While checking back on this thread in 1 yr might be interesting, it won't prove anything one way or the other unless the price of silver is <$8 or >$50. But I'm all for a revisit a year from now. The driver's in gold, and to some extent silver, are sovereign/state debt, confidence in fiat, QE, and real interest rates. So far there's no real effort to reign in these factors to end the PMs bull.
1981: Silver will never get lower than $30/ounce ... buy now! 1984: Silver will never get lower than $20/ounce ... buy now! 1987: Silver will never get lower than $11/ounce ... buy now! 1990: Silver will never get lower than $9/ounce ... buy now! 1993: Silver will never get lower than $6/ounce ... buy now! 2002: Silver will never get lower than $5/ounce ... buy now! (gee, they finally got this one right)
Some of my first investment coups were in silver bullion and silver contracts between 1977 and 1980. I dipped my toe in one last time in mid-1980 and got burned a little so I was out completely until 1999.
I don't remember any hype to buy, buy, buy silver in the years between 1981 to 1999. I really don't. I did start buying a few gold eagles in 1987-1989, and some platinum in '96 - but as I recall there was no fever or frenzy to buy precious metals during those years, and rightfully so. I do remember however that stocks were being pumped up with bailouts and hype from '82 through Oct. '87, and all throughout the '90s - the "peace dividend" was the concept being hyped for stocks, as I recall.
I tend to think there's a realistic middle ground somewhere between Streeter's expectations and roadrunner's. I also disagree that all of the problems are under control and that the trend is back towards normalcy. None of the systemic monetary and economic issues have been addressed, much less solved. It's been can-kicking down the road with a few extra $Trillion heaped onto the mess for good measure now for about 3 years.
In my view, since late 2008 it's been a stock-kiting scheme financed by money creation in order to avoid a major crash in stock prices due to the destruction in value caused by bad financial derivatives held in the portfolios of our tbtf banking institutions. We are nowhere out of the woods.
I don't expect the economy to boom with a resulting spike in silver prices, but I also don't expect them to crater either, because of their innate monetary component. We do have a monetary crisis in addition to a governance crisis, and I see no reason that silver would somehow become discredited as a backup monetary asset. I'd prefer to own stocks, I just don't see that as being the smartest move (for me). I use fiat currency, but only when I have to interact with "the system". I truly believe that to hold alot of paper assets at this time is risky beyond a reasonable level.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>It will be back in the $12-15 range soon, where it should be >>
And gas will be $1 per gallon soon. Dream on. >>
Oh that's right, I forgot, "It's different this time", "Today is a new paradigm", "We've reached a permanently high plateau", etc, etc. Now that is funny!
PM me for coin photography equipment, or visit my website:
Comments
I am somewhat confident that silver will need a strong risk on market to thrive in. Therefore a strong stock market would be a positive for silver imo. Today would be a great example. Silver is a tiny tiny market and is easy manipulated in either direction. A weak stock market would be a tough market for silver to excel in regardless.
I continue to see a weaker dollar contrary to many and I think normalcy is still a ways off. I am encouraged by new home starts and I'm nibbling here.
A port with 5% in silver and 10-15% in gold I could still sleep at night. Silver is highly speculative and gold as financial insurance.
A lot of folks are forever out of the stock market and home ownership is no longer a possibility for many. Underwater is the new home equity.
No lay ups in the near future imo.
Some will always be anti precious metals. Like in 99% of financial advisor driven products. At the end of the day we must all pick our own poison.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
BST Transactions: DonnyJf, MrOrganic, Justanothercoinaddict, Fivecents, Slq, Jdimmick,
Robb, Tee135, Ibzman350, Mercfan, Outhaul, Erickso1, Cugamongacoins, Indiananationals, Wayne Herndon
Negative BST Transactions:
We heard the same din of how bad PM's were from 2004-2006. We know how that turned out. It's one of the reason why a special PMs forum was created. That way those that didn't want to continually hear how bullion was outperforming "real investments" wouldn't have to see it on a daily basis. The dollardudes of the world harped on the bulishness of stocks from 2004-2006 stating that metals would go nowhere. We know how that turned out (ie Dow/gold ratio from 42 to a current level of 8). Buffet sold his 120 MILL ounces of silver in the 2005-2006 time frame. It didn't play any real role in silver's rise other than to possibly stunt it. Rumor has it that silver was used for the startup of SLV. Imagine if SLV had to go out and buy a fresh 100 MILL oz of silver on the open market in 2006? Buffet's buying of silver in the late 1990's at $5-$7 per ounce really had no effect on the silver market as it ultimately bottomed in 1999-2001 at $4/oz. And if Warren really purchased 20% of the world's supply when no one cared (ie only 600 MILL oz left - or less than annual world production) then you'd better stock up quick before there is none left to buy. Industrial demand for silver is around 500 MILL oz per year. It's only recycled silver (and naked paper shorting) that was keeping prices from literally exploding. Junk silver can't be recycled indefinitely. The banksters briefly lost their handle on silver in early 2011. But 8 successive CME margin hikes returned their mojo. What are they going to do when silver's paper price eventually divorces from the physical price or silver traders play in a sandbox other than the Comex? How will they control it w/o the margin hike tool? They already lost much of their silver derivative's tool that worked so well in summer of 2008 when JPM held $190 BILL in silver otc derivatives by combining the Bear Stearns holdings with their own (ie shorting the equivalent of 12 yrs of world silver production).
Housing starts don't mean much when there is already a glut of houses, not to mention millions more in foreclosure or waiting to be foreclosed upon. At some point the former homeowners that are being allowed to stay in foreclosed properties will either have to leave or start paying again....regardless of the "bullish" 9% housing starts. No doubt there are pockets of good RE demand in the US. The real issue is the totality of RE demand and supply and its effect on GDP and economy as a whole. North Dakota is doing just fine. Good for them for watching their budgets during the boom years. Unfortunately NY, NJ, Florida, New England, Arizona, California, Pennslyvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Nevada and other states are not. There was no "good reason" for metals to increase from 2003-2011. But they did. Was there any chance that multiplying the nation's debt, credit, and fiat several times over those 10 yrs played a small role? Before we declare the recession over, there's a little issue of $327 TRILL in otc derivatives carried by our top 25 banks that need to be resolved. That's a can that just can't continue to be kicked down the road indefinitely. You cannot possibly restore our banking system to health w/o dealing with this. And 0% interest rates will never lead an economic recovery. Never. And rates can't be raised w/o killing the economy via debt payments. Over 80% of those $327 TRILL derivs are interest rate contracts helping to skew rates low to buy more time, a decade if needed. Derivatives are what took the economy down to begin with. We saw that destructive power in 1998 with LTCM and then a few years later with Enron. We still haven't dealt with the primary cause despite 4 yrs of trying and creating the FrankenDodd bill. Otc derivatives totalled $900 BILL in 1987. Then $100 TRILL by around 2002. Then $1.1 QUAD by 2008. Who knows how much larger today's number is because these are only what's reported to the BIS and OOC. The banks know they are literally dead and so do the regulators. The game from here is to loot what's left of the system while piling the dead assets into the FED, Fannie, Freddie, and Joe Six Pack. The other problem with $1.1 Quad in derivatives is that over 80% of them have maturities under 1 yr. They have to continually be turned over, much like the way US debt is going.
Currently there are 1,100,000,000,000,000 reasons for the price of silver and gold to continue to rise long term. That same number of reasons also apply to TBonds and fiat currency...in the other direction. $1.1 QUAD in world-wide otc derivatives is a huge problem. And a lesser part of that is probably $50-$100 TRILL in Credit Default Swaps as well as forex and metal contracts. The demand for gold is coming from far-sighted investors like central banks. China itself is trying to buy 750 tons of gold per year. There are another dozen CB's looking to add to their piles while western CB's continue to sell, lease, or swap theirs. World gold production is only worth around $135 BILL per year, silver around $27 BILL. These are both drops in the bucket compared to the TRILLIONs in currencies and bonds being created each year by the world's CB's. M2 increased by 10% last year or around $900 BILL....6X world gold and silver production. The USTreasury sold $200 BILL in bonds in Nov-Dec alone. Depreciating fiat is reflected in demand for bullion. The USA would be happy to buy all that bullion up with printed dollars if they could do it w/o jacking up the price of metals. But they can't. So other nations are happy to buy up the excess using printed fiat. Where did the demand come from during the 1970's to raise the gold and silver prices 25 to 35X? (note - it didn't come from J6P nor will it this time).
roadrunner
<< <i>One more thing. Like others, I too believe demand is the single, most important factor in coins and precious metals. Where is this "new and growing demand" coming from that will cause gold and silver prices to return to their historic highs of last year? The investors who made it happen are leaving in droves as other investment opportunities begin to brighten. Already, there are growing predictions of a darn good year in the stock market -- predictions that are based on a whole host of indicators that economists use to gauge upcoming trends. Sorry to burst anyone's bubble, but I just don't see gold and silver rising high again for a long, long time. The facts speak otherwise. >>
I really cannot get excited about predictions of a darn good year in the stock market. I see 2012 as a repeat of 2011.
Burst away. What exactly is a long, long time? While I agree it might not skyrocket in just a couple of years like in the past, gold and silver should still do well the next 5 years. I think gold and silver offer more peace of mind compared to the market. If I may ask how old are you? My parents are both in their seventies and riding the ups and downs of the stock market the last couple of years has been very stressful on them.
BTW I do appreciate you point of view and insight and appreciate the data. Thank you
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>Currently there are 1,100,000,000,000,000 reasons for the price of silver and gold to continue to rise long term. That same number of reasons also apply to TBonds and fiat currency...in the other direction. $1.1 QUAD in world-wide otc derivatives is a huge problem. And a lesser part of that is probably $50-$100 TRILL in Credit Default Swaps as well as forex and metal contracts. The demand for gold is coming from far-sighted investors like central banks. China itself is trying to buy 750 tons of gold per year. There are another dozen CB's looking to add to their piles while western CB's continue to sell, lease, or swap theirs. World gold production is only worth around $135 BILL per year, silver around $27 BILL. These are both drops in the bucket compared to the TRILLIONs in currencies and bonds being created each year by the world's CB's. M2 increased by 10% last year or around $900 BILL....6X world gold and silver production. The USTreasury sold $200 BILL in bonds in Nov-Dec alone. Depreciating fiat is reflected in demand for bullion. The USA would be happy to buy all that bullion up with printed dollars if they could do it w/o jacking up the price of metals. But they can't. So other nations are happy to buy up the excess using printed fiat. Where did the demand come from during the 1970's to raise the gold and silver prices 25 to 35X? (note - it didn't come from J6P nor will it this time). >>
I won't debate the doom and gloom scenarios you're describing but they still don't automatically equate into everyone rushing in to buy precious metals that would be needed to spike up prices again. Some folks will, of course, like yourself, but there are far more investors with far larger purse strings who could see things much differently than you. They see precious metals as a high risk venture, which it is and always will be and any historic price chart will bear this out. You could be right, but you haven't convinced me. Personally, I see a repeat of the post-1980 days for the next 20+ years:
1981: Silver will never get lower than $30/ounce ... buy now!
1984: Silver will never get lower than $20/ounce ... buy now!
1987: Silver will never get lower than $11/ounce ... buy now!
1990: Silver will never get lower than $9/ounce ... buy now!
1993: Silver will never get lower than $6/ounce ... buy now!
2002: Silver will never get lower than $5/ounce ... buy now! (gee, they finally got this one right)
True, there will be an occasional spike, but what we witnessed recently I don't see happening again for quite some time. Bottom line line is someone will need to provide some very hard and convincing evidence that things are somehow different this time before I jump in again Until then, I will sit on the sidelines and be content with being only a collector.
Anyway, I have enjoyed the discussion, roadrunner. You sound like you really know your stuff -- and good luck this year on whatever you choose to invest in. I'll look forward to revisiting this thread a year from now to see how things actually pan out. Alas, I may have to eat crow ... but then again, perhaps not. We shall see.
<< <i>I really cannot get excited about predictions of a darn good year in the stock market. I see 2012 as a repeat of 2011.
Burst away. What exactly is a long, long time? While I agree it might not skyrocket in just a couple of years like in the past, gold and silver should still do well the next 5 years. I think gold and silver offer more peace of mind compared to the market. If I may ask how old are you? My parents are both in their seventies and riding the ups and downs of the stock market the last couple of years has been very stressful on them.
BTW I do appreciate you point of view and insight and appreciate the data. Thank you >>
You're welcome, and I appreciate your input. I'm obviously somewhat new to these boards, although I have watched and read the threads for many years. Not to sound critical, but it seems there has been a gradual trend toward conversations of an investment/speculative nature rather than the pure collecting aspect of coins. Maybe these boards should be called INVESTORS UNIVERSE ... just kidding.
I'm 56, does that make me older than you? My parents are both in their 80's and knowing my conservative father, he would NEVER ever invest in precious metals, although I have encouraged him on several occasions. As I acknowledge in my above reply to roadrunner, I remember all too well the long period after 1980 where PM prices enjoyed a long and slow decline and I have no reason to believe it won't happen again this time. I hope I'm right because there are quite a few items I had been meaning to pick up that are now out of my price range, thanks to these last two years. Once upon a time, I had fun with metals but found I enjoyed the coins themselves much more, both for their historical significance and their artistic beauty.
Take care, and hope 2012 is a good year for you and everyone else here, too. I've learned a lot from many of you!
1) In 2011 silver rose 5% or more on seven different occasions.
2) In six of those seven cases, three days later silver was flat or lower
3) In only one case was silver higher three days later.
past performance does not guarantee future results
<2002: Silver will never get lower than $5/ounce ... buy now! (gee, they finally got this one right)>
and boy did they get it right...........MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>the great recession is all but history.. >>
That may be your read on things, but it definitely is not mine. I think we've entered a 10-15 yr credit hangover starting in 2008. Peter Schiff summed it up quite well today: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/peter-schiff-debt-inflation-crisis-taking-longer-thought-170901661.html
To each his own.
best... --aap
1984: Silver will never get lower than $20/ounce ... buy now!
1987: Silver will never get lower than $11/ounce ... buy now!
1990: Silver will never get lower than $9/ounce ... buy now!
1993: Silver will never get lower than $6/ounce ... buy now!
2002: Silver will never get lower than $5/ounce ... buy now! (gee, they finally got this one right)
The above description perfect describes a 20 yr bear market, a typical cycle following a 17-18 yr silver bull (1962-1980). But why concentrate on the last bear cycle
when the current 15-20 yr bull is only 10 yrs young and too soon to pack it in? Gold and silver have typically put in a series of 3 or more major moves in each bull cycle.
Silver's last 3 major moves were from 1962-1967, 1970-1974, and 1977-1980. So many forget the first one because it was in the 1960's. But it still more than doubled up
on the price of silver. Gold's first leg is nearly ignored because the public's price was fixed to $35/oz. Yet even in 1967-1969 the price of gold internationally increased
from $35 to $44, a decent gain considering the London Gold Pool was in operation from 1962-1968 to suppress gold prices. During that time the LGP sold thousands of
tons of G7 gold into the market to manage gold. Had they not done that the price would have doubled up just like silver's. But that would have to wait until August 1971
when gold convertability was officially ended. In any case so far Gold and Silver have at most put in 2 major moves where the 2nd one might still even be in progress.
The 3rd one is still out there and maybe won't be seen for 1-2 yrs. In previous PMs bulls gold has done its best when the economy was weak and the Stock Market declining.
If there is another occurrence of that into the 60/120 yr economic cycle bottoms (2012-2014) that would be an ideal opportunity for a gold and silver run. But considering that
gold and silver did very well during a rising SM (2003-2008) and good economic conditions, their best performances (ie similar to 1977-1980) are probably yet to be seen.
While checking back on this thread in 1 yr might be interesting, it won't prove anything one way or the other unless the price of silver is <$8 or >$50. But I'm all for
a revisit a year from now. The driver's in gold, and to some extent silver, are sovereign/state debt, confidence in fiat, QE, and real interest rates. So far there's no real
effort to reign in these factors to end the PMs bull.
roadrunner
1984: Silver will never get lower than $20/ounce ... buy now!
1987: Silver will never get lower than $11/ounce ... buy now!
1990: Silver will never get lower than $9/ounce ... buy now!
1993: Silver will never get lower than $6/ounce ... buy now!
2002: Silver will never get lower than $5/ounce ... buy now! (gee, they finally got this one right)
Some of my first investment coups were in silver bullion and silver contracts between 1977 and 1980. I dipped my toe in one last time in mid-1980 and got burned a little so I was out completely until 1999.
I don't remember any hype to buy, buy, buy silver in the years between 1981 to 1999. I really don't. I did start buying a few gold eagles in 1987-1989, and some platinum in '96 - but as I recall there was no fever or frenzy to buy precious metals during those years, and rightfully so. I do remember however that stocks were being pumped up with bailouts and hype from '82 through Oct. '87, and all throughout the '90s - the "peace dividend" was the concept being hyped for stocks, as I recall.
I tend to think there's a realistic middle ground somewhere between Streeter's expectations and roadrunner's. I also disagree that all of the problems are under control and that the trend is back towards normalcy. None of the systemic monetary and economic issues have been addressed, much less solved. It's been can-kicking down the road with a few extra $Trillion heaped onto the mess for good measure now for about 3 years.
In my view, since late 2008 it's been a stock-kiting scheme financed by money creation in order to avoid a major crash in stock prices due to the destruction in value caused by bad financial derivatives held in the portfolios of our tbtf banking institutions. We are nowhere out of the woods.
I don't expect the economy to boom with a resulting spike in silver prices, but I also don't expect them to crater either, because of their innate monetary component. We do have a monetary crisis in addition to a governance crisis, and I see no reason that silver would somehow become discredited as a backup monetary asset. I'd prefer to own stocks, I just don't see that as being the smartest move (for me). I use fiat currency, but only when I have to interact with "the system". I truly believe that to hold alot of paper assets at this time is risky beyond a reasonable level.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>It will be back in the $12-15 range soon, where it should be >>
And gas will be $1 per gallon soon. Dream on.
Oh that's right, I forgot, "It's different this time", "Today is a new paradigm", "We've reached a permanently high plateau", etc, etc. Now that is funny!
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