What part(s) of the US numismatic market is (are) now illiquid?

291fifth · August 21, 2011 9:32AM

Put another way, what part(s) of the numismatic market has little or no demand at its current price level?

How much will it have to come down for demand to reappear?

MrEureka · August 21, 2011 9:47AM

Put another way, what part(s) of the numismatic market has little or no demand at its current price level?

Everything is liquid at a price.

291fifth · August 21, 2011 9:55AM

<< Put another way, what part(s) of the numismatic market has little or no demand at its current price level?

Everything is liquid at a price. >>

True, but what is currently not moving because there is no demand at the price now being asked?

adamlaneus · August 21, 2011 9:56AM

Guess:

60/61 graded widgets? When you can get higher grades for basically the same price?

AnkurJ · August 21, 2011 9:57AM

Trimes.

MrEureka · August 21, 2011 10:01AM

True, but what is currently not moving because there is no demand at the price now being asked?

The price being asked by whom? Various sellers often ask very different prices for essentially identical coins.

291fifth · August 21, 2011 10:08AM

<< True, but what is currently not moving because there is no demand at the price now being asked?

The price being asked by whom? Various sellers often ask very different prices for essentially identical coins. >>

You are being difficult. Please stand in the back of the classroom.

Coins911 · August 21, 2011 10:11AM

Have you ever tried to sell a so-called dollar?

Bear · August 21, 2011 10:15AM

Dealers seem stocked to the gills with low grade coins. It would appear, that J6P Collectors

have cut back their coin budgets to a serious extent. This means, If dealers cannot sell the

product, then they will not buy the product. These coins take up space and are not turning over.

Thus they are not only soft on pricing, they are illiquid when collectors go to sell.

COALPORTER · August 21, 2011 10:36AM

<< Dealers seem stocked to the gills with low grade coins. It would appear, that J6P Collectors

have cut back their coin budgets to a serious extent. This means, If dealers cannot sell the

product, then they will not buy the product. These coins take up space and are not turning over.

Thus they are not only soft on pricing, they are illiquid when collectors go to sell. >>

What is a J6P Collectors? Is that like a Gen Xer?

adamlaneus · August 21, 2011 10:37AM

It is either a very special desirable pattern...

Or it's Joe Six Pack.

COALPORTER · August 21, 2011 10:39AM

Wait "joe six pack" - i got it

Can anyone who buys $1000 ever really be called j6p?
remember ,a j6p is someone who takes his dates to sit in the walmart garden center.

shorecoll · August 21, 2011 10:40AM

A lot of J6P grade coins are trading at melt...lots of nice washies, walkers, roosies, frankins and barbers up to VG are in or headed to bullion bags. I see lots of people on eBay trying to pretend it ain't so, but it is for now.

bolivarshagnasty · August 21, 2011 11:04AM

<< Put another way, what part(s) of the numismatic market has little or no demand at its current price level?

How much will it have to come down for demand to reappear? >>

No one wants to offend another Collector's series, but I can think of numerous examples. Don't want to offend. Mel

tydye · August 21, 2011 11:16AM

Proof sets from 68 to present

RedTiger · August 21, 2011 11:16AM

An ill-formed question because everything moves at a price. The spread between retail and wholesale tends to be wider on esoteric, low volume items, such as medals, and also on low value raw items that require a lot of labor to price, package and sell. A person never has to ask that question because those factors basically never change.

As to which series and grades have weak demand or strong demand, there were many comments on many threads on recent ANA auction results, and a person can mull those over.

BBN · August 21, 2011 11:27AM

PR69DCAM moderns. One can make decent money on these if they do not mind setting a 30 BIN for a higher price and win these things on a running auction. Example; a PR69DCAM state quarter that auctions out at $7 with free or low shipping and then put on a 30 day BIN for like $12.99 with a couple bucks shipping. Even better profit margin for this method is 1940s-50s MS64 widgets bought in auction format and then let sit in a 30 day BIN for a higher price. They may site for awhile, but someone will eventually come along and pay your price and create a decent return on your money.

7over8 · August 21, 2011 12:17PM

<< An ill-formed question because everything moves at a price >>

Not really ill formed at all.

There are times in the numismatic market where certain items are "not wanted", where there is virtually "no demand", and most buyers just shy away - at almost ANY price.

And only STUPID offers are made..........it's getting that way for Statehood Quarters, certain USM products (common proof sets, etc) right now. No one wants to inventory items that collect dust and dont sell.

ambro51 · August 21, 2011 12:22PM

Ive seen a lot of stuff at the coin club auctions...and at shows...and lots (most) of it goes back home with the guy who brought it.

The stuff that doesnt is the stuff that someone, hopefully ..two people..go "WOW" when they see it.

The WOW factor isnt too much related to price since WOW cheap coins sell as quickly as a WOW seven figure coin.

Proof sets, modern blah 69s, old common lincolns in 2X2s, theres no wow there so unless you want to basically give the stuff away no one is "needing" it and certainly no one is going "WOW" over it.

jmski52 · August 21, 2011 12:27PM

I'm waiting for a massive monetary deflation crash to make my closet full of nickels and clad Kennedys worth something.

GAT · August 21, 2011 1:14PM

Some modern commemorative silver Dollars have been selling for more then 20% discount from melt on the der Bay. The 2002 West Point coin is one example.

CoinCrazyPA · August 21, 2011 2:11PM

Clad proof sets from 2000-08 are at fire sale prices.

RedTiger · August 21, 2011 2:22PM

<< 

<< An ill-formed question because everything moves at a price >>

Not really ill formed at all.

There are times in the numismatic market where certain items are "not wanted", where there is virtually "no demand", and most buyers just shy away - at almost ANY price.

And only STUPID offers are made..........it's getting that way for Statehood Quarters, certain USM products (common proof sets, etc) right now. No one wants to inventory items that collect dust and dont sell. >>

Perhaps I misunderstood the question then, and I thought the person asking has more sense than to ask a question if the answer is as you stated, common clad proof sets and state quarter rolls. Its been a long time since common proof sets attracted strong retail prices. Was that really the question though? Maybe its me, but I give the op more credit than to ask such a simple question.

Some alternative questions might be:
1) Which items are trading for the most below the quoted sheet prices or retail guide prices? This is more of a price guide question and may not be correlated with recent price movements.

2) Which items have seen the greatest percentage in real price declines in the last year? Not changes in guide prices, but real market price declines. This is more of a current coin market question and rate of change question, and may have little correlation to guide pricing.

3) Or was the question as I answered it, the items that tend to have the widest spreads between wholesale cash offers and retail asking prices, the coins that tend to the take the biggest hits in a fire sale, vs. retail ask?

Number three is the textbook definition of illiquid, and I gave that answer. However, like your answer, I don't think my answer was what the op had that in mind, that's why I say the question was not clear, and ill-formed. Probably #2 is the most relevant, but clarification is in order, as the answers might be very different after clarification.

MrEureka · August 21, 2011 2:30PM

To be accurate, "liquidity" is the degree to which the sale of an item (in various quantities) will affect price levels. So, to be accurate, virtually all extremely rare and all esoteric items will tend to be relatively illiquid. (For example, consider how the market would react to a roll of 1933 Eagles.) Additionally, some less rare items that sell easily at current levels in small quantities must be discounted in any significant quantity, and should be considered relatively illiquid. (Consider 1881-O DMPL Morgans.) Highly liquid items are easily salable in large quantities at current levels. (Consider K-Rands or common date Morgans in 65.)

The question "How much will (prices) have to come down for demand to reappear?" doesn't make sense. Perhaps the question should have been "How much would prices have to drop for the market to absorb (a defined) large quantity?"

pennyannie · August 21, 2011 2:52PM

291fifth- I would say a lot of 2 cent, 3 cent, 10cent, 25 cent etc is going no where. I stop by 3 local B@M's on a regular basis and i would say well over 60 percent of the coins for sale in the cases (raw for sure) were there last year, the year before that and the year before that....

but even this junk would sell if the price was right.

I would think that most B@M's have 3 cases that see the most action and the other 30 just collect dust and make the store look fluffier.

7over8 · August 21, 2011 3:15PM

<< Its been a long time since common proof sets attracted strong retail prices. Was that really the question though? >>

Common clad proof sets are only an example of "illiquid" items in the numismatic market.

It is not a question of the largest spread (bid--ask) or the greatest loss in the last year, it really has to do with a buyer not wanting to deploy his capital into the item at ANY price.

It is just not worth it for them - especially if it will sit without a buyer for many months.

Although everything has a price, how about FACE?

DeepCoin · August 22, 2011 12:39PM

Many people make the mistake of thinking what they paid for a coin should affect the price they ask. Given how many things have pulled back, if you do not reprice you will be buried. The only way to make money is via turnover. Sometimes you have to eat the loss in order to get your money back in play. Business 101, but lost on many

What part(s) of the US numismatic market is (are) now illiquid?

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