Are MS-70 coins "value traps"?
Bochiman
Posts: 25,554 ✭✭✭✭✭
Coin week article by John Maben makes for an interesting read....and likely a spirited debate 
It is true that many if not most of the coins (except those intended for general circulation) produced in the past decade or so will seldom grade LESS than 69. While this could be a surprise to a Newbie, I think that the vast majority of repeat retail buyers and virtually all dealers already know this.
Populations most definitely do influence values on 70 coins, but even MORE important is good old fashioned DEMAND. A pop one coin means nothing if no one wants it, likewise I could name many modern coins with pops that are considered high for a modern, that have appreciated considerably in value from their issue price and are in high current demand. If you are ONLY buying modern coins based on the pop figures I would suggest that is a losing strategy.
Above and beyond all else, I suggest buying coins you like, and not as an “investment” but because you enjoy them. If possible, stick with coins that are popular and enjoy high demand. If they appreciate down the road it’s a win-win, if they don’t you still had fun along the way. If you are new to collecting I’d steer clear of any individual or company that gets carried away with silly dramatic hype, especially if it is not factual, and of those that use high pressure sales tactics of any kind whatsoever.
When buying certified modern coins, it usually pays off to be patient. If a new issue is red hot most of the time that means WAIT TO BUY. The risk of waiting is the chance that they could get tougher to find or increase in value, but more times than not they come down in price as the frenzy subsides. Shop around as Mr Golino suggested and make certain you are comparing apples to apples. Some sellers will deliberately make their product a bit confusing in hopes it will be interpreted as something else of greater value.
Full article is at the link below
MS-70 coins - value traps?
It is true that many if not most of the coins (except those intended for general circulation) produced in the past decade or so will seldom grade LESS than 69. While this could be a surprise to a Newbie, I think that the vast majority of repeat retail buyers and virtually all dealers already know this.
Populations most definitely do influence values on 70 coins, but even MORE important is good old fashioned DEMAND. A pop one coin means nothing if no one wants it, likewise I could name many modern coins with pops that are considered high for a modern, that have appreciated considerably in value from their issue price and are in high current demand. If you are ONLY buying modern coins based on the pop figures I would suggest that is a losing strategy.
Above and beyond all else, I suggest buying coins you like, and not as an “investment” but because you enjoy them. If possible, stick with coins that are popular and enjoy high demand. If they appreciate down the road it’s a win-win, if they don’t you still had fun along the way. If you are new to collecting I’d steer clear of any individual or company that gets carried away with silly dramatic hype, especially if it is not factual, and of those that use high pressure sales tactics of any kind whatsoever.
When buying certified modern coins, it usually pays off to be patient. If a new issue is red hot most of the time that means WAIT TO BUY. The risk of waiting is the chance that they could get tougher to find or increase in value, but more times than not they come down in price as the frenzy subsides. Shop around as Mr Golino suggested and make certain you are comparing apples to apples. Some sellers will deliberately make their product a bit confusing in hopes it will be interpreted as something else of greater value.
Full article is at the link below
MS-70 coins - value traps?
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
0
Comments
Yes, of course, but no more so than other coins - even classics - for which there is an exponential increase in price from one MS grade to the next. Grading is far too subjective and inconsistent to fall for such increases.
<< <i>Are MS-70 coins "value traps"?
Yes, of course, but no more so than other coins - even classics - for which there is an exponential increase in price from one MS grade to the next. Grading is far too subjective and inconsistent to fall for such increases. >>
POTD.
<< <i>Are MS-70 coins "value traps"? >>
I'll have to ask the folks making them.
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
<< <i>Are MS-70 coins "value traps"?
Yes, of course, but no more so than other coins - even classics - for which there is an exponential increase in price from one MS grade to the next. Grading is far too subjective and inconsistent to fall for such increases. >>
For example. some Peace dollars shoot up in price by 10X-20X on going from MS64 to MS65
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
<< <i>As with most markets, get out before the trap is sprung
Bingo!
I've played the game before.....order from the mint, submit, get MS/PR70 and sell.
The one time I tried keeping for a little time, I watched sale price go from ~$5000 down to ~$3000
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I'd like to be the first to make a MS69 Jefferson, MS69 Kennedy or MS69 SBA... or the first to make any MS70!
99.8% of the 131,000+ SHQs graded are graded MS68 or lower... I think someone should contact PCGS to inform them that these coins shouldn't grade less than MS69!
I am really surprised no one has brought up what I thought would be immediately challenged..... my assertion that the "perfect" coin does not exist, and the word is way over used and misleading....
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
<< <i>I'd like to find some MS67 Jefferson nickels or some MS68 Statehood quarters from 1999... I'm not greedy; I don't need MS70s!
I'd like to be the first to make a MS69 Jefferson, MS69 Kennedy or MS69 SBA... or the first to make any MS70!
99.8% of the 131,000+ SHQs graded are graded MS68 or lower... I think someone should contact PCGS to inform them that these coins shouldn't grade less than MS69!
It would be highly unusual for a circulation grade coin to be a 70. You don't need ms70 quality coins to buy candy bars. By the same token, as far as designs go that coin operated washing machine couldn't care less if the design of the quarters you use is hokey or not.
<< <i>The best advice of all would be to buy nothing that was struck after 1933.
...or St. Gaudens struck in 1933!
<< <i>
<< <i>I'd like to find some MS67 Jefferson nickels or some MS68 Statehood quarters from 1999... I'm not greedy; I don't need MS70s!
I'd like to be the first to make a MS69 Jefferson, MS69 Kennedy or MS69 SBA... or the first to make any MS70!
99.8% of the 131,000+ SHQs graded are graded MS68 or lower... I think someone should contact PCGS to inform them that these coins shouldn't grade less than MS69!
It would be highly unusual for a circulation grade coin to be a 70. You don't need ms70 quality coins to buy candy bars. By the same token, as far as designs go that coin operated washing machine couldn't care less if the design of the quarters you use is hokey or not. >>
Thats the stuff dreams are made of. Whether an SMS coin is MS68, 69 or 70 means nothing to me as they are supposed to be perfect. But through some freak twist of fate, when a business strike manages to stay MS67 after all the potential abuse it could have had...well...that makes them very special.
<< <i>
I am really surprised no one has brought up what I thought would be immediately challenged..... my assertion that the "perfect" coin does not exist, and the word is way over used and misleading....
John >>
John,
I think most of us here agree that "perfect" coins don't exist. The most common context that I see that assertion is from guys wanting to bash moderns by saying that MS/PR70 is a sham because perfect coins don't exist. But now we seem to accept that MS/PR70 doesn't mean "perfect" and we all coexist pretty peacefully. Even the comment above that you should avoid all coins after 1933 was made politely and respectfully without trying to start an argument. Things have gotten much friendlier around here. --jerry
The 69s are the result of a little defect that occured, the 70s are the ones that bypassed that defect, thats all.
We are again seeing all this "in the moment" and they are looking stupid and easy to find...but step down the road fifty years. How many of those 69s got cracked out? Do you think any more 70s are coming? Not likely, since most of these are made by professionals in large submissions, and they can only work this during the period very soon after initial issue.
Take advantage of these pieces if you are a young collector with a long timeline. These 70s will be the CREME of the crop over the decades and I think if you buy a good coin at a fair price and keep it long enough you will do just fine. Many of the old GREAT collections were formed by people getting nice 'moderns' of their day, and holding them. That still holds but we are chronically short sighted and fail to realize this.
Still, Maben does make it as clear as possible in the quote below.
<< <i>Above and beyond all else, I suggest buying coins you like, and not as an “investment” but because you enjoy them. If possible, stick with coins that are popular and enjoy high demand. If they appreciate down the road it’s a win-win >>
Anyway, it is likely that a grade or service above and beyond the current PF70 is in the future. With some new issues getiing 30% to 50% PF70s at some companies, that leaves room for better 70s and lesser 70s. What they will call it, how they will do it, is an open question. PF70+ would be the easiest and most likely as there are already plus grades for many other lower grades. A computer assisted PF70 grade might take out some of the subjectivity.
As far as the title, any coin at any grade at any quality level can be a value trap, if the price paid is well above realistic market price. A collector is wise to learn about pricing before spending big bucks. The guides and sheets are only part of the pricing puzzle. Actually dealer wholesale cash offers, and retail asking prices, as well as auction results are more pieces of a moving puzzle, as new PF70s come to market each year.
However coins graded 70 (someof them) are very nice and are properly graded and nice to collect. Then there are some that slip into 70 holders that have problems later... THAT'S A BIG PROBLEM
<< <i>The question is not one of MS70's being "value traps", but rather, if all modern coins are "value traps" and to that, I would answer yes. >>
Any coin can be a value trap, as I just wrote, it mostly depends on the price paid. Do moderns tend to have wider spreads and less liquidity than many classic coins? The answer is mostly yes, but, I still think it is mistake to lump all coins in because they were minted after a certain date. For example, many other areas of numismatics such as most tokens, medals, and many foreign numismatic coins tend to have similarly wide spreads and lower liquidity like moderns and ultramoderns. Would it be fair to say that those categories are all "value traps?" A collector of such material is better off understanding what typical cash wholesale dealer offers might be for their material, but if they understand that and still want to buy, they can certainly enjoy the hobby from that perspective.
The same holds for the collector of moderns and ultramoderns, if a collector learns and understands what typical wholesale and retail prices are for their material, and still wants to collect there is no trap. If a person blindly buys based on someone's recommendation (often a telemarketer or TV seller) there is a financial pit, and it won't matter much what year the coin was minted, or if it has intrinsic value or a clad coin.
/edit to add: years back this was a recurring topic with Russ weighing in against Laura from Legend. Russ often pointed to recent strong auction results for top pop Kennedy halves, often record results. As part of that look back, top pop Franklins have been one of the worst places to have money as many have fallen in value 50% with some down 80% from their highs. Mint state common Walkers have been dead money for decades. I have told the story on the forum about a guy at the local coin club that put away a choice MS65 short set after prices had fallen by half in the 1990s. At a recent show he walked his set around and concluded if sold the set wholesale that he would about break even after about 20 years of holding his hand picked MS65 set. Were Franklins and Walkers traps and Kennedies the investment coin series? In hindsight, perhaps yes, but who knew that 20 years ago. In any case, it takes grading skill and market knowledge to do well, even if the series does well, and that holds for PF70 grade coins or MS65 coins, or just about any American coin besides bullion plays.
<< <i>I wrote this in response to the article Mr Golino wrote a week prior.... if you have any interest in moderns at all I would suggest reading both articles. He and I both suggested limiting purchases to NGC and PCGS (not just PCGS) if it is certified moderns that interest you.
I am really surprised no one has brought up what I thought would be immediately challenged..... my assertion that the "perfect" coin does not exist, and the word is way over used and misleading....
John >>
It is not only over used and misleading, the only direction an MS-70 coin can go is down. There have been stories about MS-70 coins going bad and it can happen to anyone on copper, silver or gold. Thanks for your insight and sharing Mr. Golino's insight.
Non-business-strikes are still coins. They are legal tender and can be spent (and sometimes are). Many of them also serve as a store of value, which circulation strikes generally don't do.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Why can there be no perfection? I worked production machinery for years and by God, there CAN be perfection.
The 69s are the result of a little defect that occured, the 70s are the ones that bypassed that defect, thats all.
We are again seeing all this "in the moment" and they are looking stupid and easy to find...but step down the road fifty years. How many of those 69s got cracked out? Do you think any more 70s are coming? Not likely, since most of these are made by professionals in large submissions, and they can only work this during the period very soon after initial issue.
Take advantage of these pieces if you are a young collector with a long timeline. These 70s will be the CREME of the crop over the decades and I think if you buy a good coin at a fair price and keep it long enough you will do just fine. Many of the old GREAT collections were formed by people getting nice 'moderns' of their day, and holding them. That still holds but we are chronically short sighted and fail to realize this. >>
I (very) respectfully disagree. There are better ways to invest that $$$ in coins. A collectible that is marketed to be a collectible can seriously lag behind others that were not made that way. An example of that from another genre are the "made for collectors" comicbooks from the 1990's with the foil holograph covers, inserts, polybags, etc. Everyone bought them and everyone put them away in high grade. So they aren't rare in high grade. That money would have been better spent buying higher grade (but not perfect) specimens of comicbooks that were produced before that period when comics were meant to be disposable instead of investments.
So going back to coins, rather than spend $1,000 to buy pop-top slabbed cents manufactured within the last 5 to 10 years, your money would be better invested to buy the nicest cent that you could afford from the 1930's (or something like that). It should still be pop-top...but should come from an era before pop-tops were relevant.
Why is a 1950 proof coin so valuable but typical 1970 proof coin not that valuable. The answer is that the 1950's stuff wasn't widely purchased as an investment. People bought the 1970 proof sets, in part, because they saw how much the 1950's proof sets increased in value and they figured they could buy and hold them. So now we have more than enough 1970 proofs and still not enough 1950's proofs. Which would you rather spend $1,000 on? I don't think there has been a point in history where it would have been better to spend $1,000 on 1970 proofs than 1950 proofs...except maybe the first year due to initial inefficiency of distribution.
I think the concept of collecting high grade stuff for future value increases is a sound idea, but only if you focus on material that was not over-collected or marketed as investments when they first came out.
Steve
Well put.
Here are the PCGS 70s I made and all are in my permanent collection.
2007 W Jefferson Liberty Gold MS and Proof
2010W Buchanan Liberty Gold MS and Proof
2008 W $25 Gold Buffalo
2008 W $10 American Gold Eagle
2007 Platinum Proof Set
2006 American Silver Eagle Reverse Proof and Regular Proof
2006 $5 and $10 American Gold Eagle
2007 $5 and $10 American Gold Eagle
2009 Ultra High Relief Gold
2007 W $10 Platinum Proof
2008 W $25 Platinum Proof
2008 W Bald Eagle Proof and MS versions
2009 Lincoln Commemorative MS
The above self made 70 coins are only value traps if you want to include the 20%-30% premium I paid over spot for these issues bought directly from the mint or if PMs take a dive.
70 Coins I did not purchase from the mint and are now out of reach price wise and hope to put in my collection:
FS 2008 W Jackson Liberty Gold MS and Proof
FS 2008 W Van Buren Liberty Gold Proof.
These three coins have tripled in price from the original mint issue price in FS PCGS 70s. Those I would venture could be deemed value traps in my opinion. I will not buy them at those prices, though I have plenty of the Buchanan Liberty 70s I would sell to exchange for the Jackson and Van Buren Liberties if the Buchanan's reach their price levels.
Box of 20
<< <i>
<< <i>I think the concept of collecting high grade stuff for future value increases is a sound idea, but only if you focus on material that was not over-collected or marketed as investments when they first came out. >>
Well put. >>
For some of these coins, making and selling them seems to be where the return is.
For NCLT over time, PCGS First Strike 70s seem to hold up the best.
<< <i>Take advantage of these pieces if you are a young collector with a long timeline. These 70s will be the CREME of the crop over the decades and I think if you buy a good coin at a fair price and keep it long enough you will do just fine. Many of the old GREAT collections were formed by people getting nice 'moderns' of their day, and holding them. That still holds but we are chronically short sighted and fail to realize this. >>
Apparently enough people do care, which accounts for the high prices paid for so-called "perfection." A modern, non-circulating mint issue may be beautiful, and to all human eyes, possess superb eye appeal, full strike and fantastic luster. Perhaps it grades 69 or 68. I know, 68, such a lowly, disgusting, worthless grade. How dare I even mention it.
It all sounds so strange, but so far, the joke is on me. Only time will tell if the value of these modern mint products graded MS/PR 70 are really worth THAT much more than slightly lower grades.
It just so happens I have a roll of 99 cents, nickels, dimes, quarters (all of them), halves and SBA's and I have MS-70's of each and all, how many of each do you need?
<< <i>I'd like to find some MS67 Jefferson nickels or some MS68 Statehood quarters from 1999... I'm not greedy; I don't need MS70s! Of course there aren't any MS68 nickels (1) or MS69 SHQs (2) to speak about from 1999, let alone MS70s (0)!
It just so happens I have a roll of 99 cents, nickels, dimes, quarters (all of them), halves and SBA's and I have MS-70's of each and all, how many of each do you need? >>
Forget the coins... I'll have what you're drinking!
MS70s are the BEST profit margin in the coin business if you submit them yourself and sell them quickly. MS/PR 70s have been very,very good to me. They have helped me finance some of my draped bust dollars and key date coins.
This point is well taken, but Maben is avoiding the issue as to whether collectors should buy coins that are certified as grading “MS-70” at current market prices. Are these good values?
Collecting Modern Coins
<< <i>Collecting Modern Coins >>
Great analysis Analyst!
998 out 1000 people cant tell the difference between 69 and 70
100 MS/PF70s broken out with no change would yield only a very small fraction of 70s on regrade.
Proof that plastic is the prime profit motive is PCGS70s are worth much more then NGC70s even if both are truly perfect
Most of the value is based off the grade and not the core object as most 70s minus the 1-3 all but undetectable grading points become uncollectible & unsellable spending money.
The only thing preventing an explosion of the populations for almost all of them is mass submitting which doesn't happen because of cost benefit analysis of a costs of all the junk MS69s
<< <i>MS70s are the BEST profit margin in the coin business if you submit them yourself and sell them quickly. MS/PR 70s have been very,very good to me. They have helped me finance some of my draped bust dollars and key date coins. >>
Hmmm.... can't make a blanket statement like that. I sell TONS of 70's such as current spouse coins, gold eagles, gold buffalo's etc at about a 5% mark up when its all said and done. Yes there is the occasional "hit" but that is not where the bulk of today's modern coin business is... it's in the LOWER margin items, at least in terms of percentage of total sales.
The HIGHEST margins that I see ironically are in lower grade collector coins (such as Lincoln Cents in VG, VF, whatever) sold by retail companies at insanely high prices to people who are not numismatists in the truest sense they are just unsophisticated collectors who enjoy building a set of something... bottom line, they deliver a product that people want and some are willing to pay their price.
RedTiger- I was not in anyway referring ONLY to Proof 70's I was speaking to both MS and Proofs.
"John,
I think most of us here agree that "perfect" coins don't exist. The most common context that I see that assertion is from guys wanting to bash moderns by saying that MS/PR70 is a sham because perfect coins don't exist. But now we seem to accept that MS/PR70 doesn't mean "perfect" and we all coexist pretty peacefully. Even the comment above that you should avoid all coins after 1933 was made politely and respectfully without trying to start an argument. Things have gotten much friendlier around here. --jerry"
Jerry- In any grading scale you must have a top grade. The scale we use has named that top grade a 70, which is kind of stupid, but that's another article for another day on why the sheldon scale is more overdue for an overhaul than the national budget and healthcare combined (well, maybe not). The mistake was equating this 70 grade with perfection. If you accept that perfection is not the true definition of a 70 then you should also accept that it is not a sham. I agree that we all (classic and modern guys) are getting along better these days but think its mainly because you can't argue with years of success and modern coin programs have been hugely successful for many. The old school "classics rule and everything else sucks" guys are shrinking in size. In fact seems every time I turn around another individual or company that used to criticize the modern coin market actually enters it, and some in a big way. The potential for abuse via misrepresentation and/or over-pricing exists in every genre and today is no more prevalent in moderns than in classics, in my opinion.
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
What is “the true definition of a 70”? Furthermore, Maben continues to avoid the issue as to whether collectors should buy coins that are certified as grading “MS-70” at current market prices. Are these good values? What are John Maben’s opinions on the meaning of and current prices of certified “MS-70” coins?
Collecting Modern Coins
Right now it is a diet Mikes hard Lemonade in a glass with ice, plenty hot down here!
<< <i>Forget the coins... I'll have what you're drinking!
Right now it is a diet Mikes hard Lemonade in a glass with ice, plenty hot down here! >>
How was your nap?
I can show you "70" graded coins that are UTTERLY AMAZING values at current levels; values that would blow your mind! Coins you would want to own without question if you had an open mind to diversifying into modern coins with super potential along with classic coins. I can also show you "69" grade coins that are PATHETIC values at current levels. And, of course, I can also show you "70" graded coins that are "AVOID AT ALL COSTS" coins in my book.
Open invitation for YOU ONLY ... if you have a fair and open mind regarding "70" graded moderns, I would be happy to confidentially share with you a few of my very top picks for you to either consider purchasing or simply to follow in the months and years ahead. You could easily track the performance of these 70 graded coins and could report on your financial success (or failure) with these 70's over time. Warning... you may be SHOCKED by what happens. Fair warning.
Wondercoin
<< <i>Maben: <<The scale we use has named that top grade a 70, which is kind of stupid, but that's another article for another day … . The mistake was equating this 70 grade with perfection. If you accept that perfection is not the true definition of a 70 then you should also accept that it is not a sham.>>
What is “the true definition of a 70”? Furthermore, Maben continues to avoid the issue as to whether collectors should buy coins that are certified as grading “MS-70” at current market prices. Are these good values? What are John Maben’s opinions on the meaning of and current prices of certified “MS-70” coins?
Collecting Modern Coins >>
OK, you ask, "What is the TRUE definition of a 70? What I have told you so far is that it is not PERFECTION. What you can assume is that it is a coin that is better than a 69. Everyone will have there own idea of what the definition of a 70 is..... my definition would be no post minting marks, abrasions, hairlines, or spots visible to the (20/20) naked eye under ideal (dark room, 100W bulb lamp) viewing conditions. Very minor defects created during the minting process such as tiny struck thru's as well as raised lines the result of die polishing would be acceptable. I happen to think (my opinion) that both NGC and PCGS use this as the standard now, perhaps not universally but in many, many, cases.
Now..... that's John Maben's definition. The only definitions I've seen from the services usually say something along the lines of no visible marks or flaws with 5X magnification. I respectfully suggest that needs updating.
"Maben continues to avoid the issue as to whether collectors should buy coins that are certified as grading “MS-70” at current market prices. Are these good values? What are John Maben’s opinions on the meaning of and current prices of certified “MS-70” coins?"
You're right, I am avoiding it. There are plenty of dealers who will give advice on what to buy and what not to buy and what represents good value. In fact, I think Mitch just did that in an earlier post and he is certainly most qualified. I RARELY do it and encourage my staff to keep their opinions to themselves as much as possible. You see I have never tried to suggest or portray myself as an advisor of what to buy if the only goal is profit. To the contrary, I believe coin collecting is all about the experience. As I said before, if profits come along that's wonderful. Of course, as a dealer, profit is a primary motive for me or I wouldn't be in business. My niche is not in the area of advice on WHAT to buy, it is in offering a variety of quality products that people want at the lowest prices you will find in many if not most cases. The Wal-Mart model if you will. By the time people come to me, they already know what they want and have done their homework (most of the time) and that helps us to keep prices low. I didn't write the response article here to address the "value" issue, I wrote it to address many other issues that I thought were even more important. Value is perceived, fluid, and contingent on numerous factors.
With regard to prices, I will say that in every case price is driven by demand. We occasionally have a customer that will get upset if something they bought is later offered by us at a lower price as if to suggest that we control the market. The market controls the market, and it's based on supply and demand. We are proficient at quickly spotting trends and responding to supply and demand needs, that translates into frequent price changes or volatility if you will. A perfect example of the market being demand driven is the recent activity in 2010 ATB sets in MS69 and MS69DMPL. Along with many others, we sold sets at all different price levels that started at what now seems like the stratosphere but that was the market at the time and we always tried to price at or below not above market. When I get these now I can offer them at a fraction of earlier prices because I can buy them cheaper...... much cheaper. Apparently, at some point demand subsided big time and supply grew. No hokus pokus, just market forces at work.
I know for sure that many of my customers have made nice profits on coins they have bought from us in the past few years and many have not. It's all according to the choices they made. I know I have many customers that don't really care much about the price swings, they like what they are doing and have no plans to sell. They enjoy the hobby.
John
edited for grammar
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
Think back to the days before the Internet and how much time and effort it would take an average collector to get to:
1) know who the top dealers are for moderns and ultramoderns
2) pick their brains and get relatively straight forward commentary
John: I do "RARELY" as well, as you (in fact, if you do "rarely", you are doing more advising than me LOL). But notice my CONDITIONS here.
1. ONLY for "Analyst"
2. CONFIDENTIAL information between us. The "newspaper reporter" can buy a few coins if he desires or buy none and just track the selections to report on later (even better). Obviously, from what I was reading here, many/most would expect the updates from Analyst over the months/years ahead to be negative in nature since we are dealing with "70's". But, I think both you and I could list a few amazing current values in 70's if we had to. If the selections were being watched fairly and objectively (as I know they would be), I would have no problem sharing a few with Analyst. In fact, it would be fun to do and I do believe the results would likely surprise/shock many.
I do want to repeat my earlier comment that IMHO there are 70's (and plenty of them) to avoid at all costs. Indeed, "value traps" would be an understatement in my opinion. Likewise, there are wonderful classic coins in all grades and very poor ones.
Wondercoin
<< <i>
<< <i>The best advice of all would be to buy nothing that was struck after 1933.
...or St. Gaudens struck in 1933!
Thats terrible advice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It would take out most of my Mercs and Walkers. My 2 favorite series.
(Priest) BLASPHEMY he said it again, did you hear him?
<< <i>The question is not one of MS70's being "value traps", but rather, if all modern coins are "value traps" and to that, I would answer yes. >>
Some Russian moderns increased 24000% this year. Try buying any of the
late '60's/ early '70's Russian issues. A few of these still list for 50c or less but
just try buying them.
People all over the world stopped saving moderns when silver and gold were
removed from coinage. Now coins minted in the tens or hundreds of millions
are almost impossible to find.
So exactly which coins are the value traps; The ones that list for thousands
of dollars now or the scarcities that still list for 75c?
Some day people will be looking for all those "common" US coins too.
<< <i>
<< <i>Collecting Modern Coins >>
Great analysis Analyst!
I have to disagree.
While I do agree with many of the major points they continually lump all post 1934
coinage together and claim that it is common and that they are common in high grade;
"For individual post-1934 coin issues, there could be anywhere from ten thousand to ten million high grade pieces that have never been certified plus numerous low grade pieces extant as well. The number of individual coins that grade from 66 to 69, and become known to the coin collecting community, may rise substantially, particularly in cases where the market values of the respective coins are significantly greater than the pertinent certification fees charged by the PCGS and the NGC."
This is simply ludicrous. People quit saving new coin in 1965. Sure, there are all
the penny rolls well represented and most of the nickel rolls but even "common"
post-1964 rolls like 1965 cents tend to be less than 5% as common as the earlier
issues. Some of the clad wasn't really saved at all. You will not find an original
roll of 1969 quarters for instance. You can by bags of any of the 1955 quarters
but you won't find a roll of 1969. Indeed, you probably can't find even a single
of this date that didn't come from a mint set. This applies to the vast majority of
eagle reverse clad quarters, most clad dimes, and many of the halfs and Ikes.
There are not hoards of most clad coins waiting to hit the market and the few that
were set aside are poor quality and there will be few gems nuch less pop tops.
To illustrate how tough these rolls are the '83-P quarter bids in the $1000 area
and was one of the most heavily saved rolls! Since there were no mint sets the
demand for these is far higher than for other dates. The scarcest rolls go for $100
and the commoner for $1000. How's that for modern math!
Modern coins simply should not be lumped in the same category as 1934 to '65
coinage.
idea to stash them away at face value even at this late date and that goes triple if you can find
high quality. But paying large premiums for recent date coins has been exceedingly risky for a very
long time now and the the definition of "recent" is getting longer.
Anyone interested in coins graded "70" should have a feel for both the market and the individual
issue which they desire in 70. There are 70's that are virtually certain to plummet and there are
some which can stand the test of time.
By the way, I had not read Greg's (Analyst's) article on collecting moderns prior to my invitation I extended to him earlier tonight. I actually just read it a minute ago when I read CK's last posting.
Having read the column now, I believe it would even be more fascinating (and newsworthy) for Greg to follow a basket of compelling modern coins (i.e. potentially the "right" stuff) and to observe the dynamics of those coins. My proposal was extended to Greg with the best of intentions and in the best of good faith and I hope we can do something involving moderns.
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