Options
What coins will garner the strong prices in 2011
Bear
Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
Silver Type in MS...which specifically
Silver Type in PR "
Copper Type in MS "
Copper Type in PR "
Gold coins in MS "
Gold coins in PR "
Colonials "
? "
Silver Type in PR "
Copper Type in MS "
Copper Type in PR "
Gold coins in MS "
Gold coins in PR "
Colonials "
? "
There once was a place called
Camelot
Camelot
0
Comments
Successful BST Transactions!SIconbuster, Meltdown, Mission16, slothman2000, RGjohn, braddick, au58lover, allcoinsrule, commemdude, gerard, lablade, PCcoins, greencopper, kaz, tydye, cucamongacoin, mkman123, SeaEaglecoins, Doh!, AnkurJ, Airplanenut, ArizonaJack, JJM,Tee135,LordMarcovan, Swampboy, piecesofme, Ahrensdad,
I don't think too many people can go wrong long term by sticking to these ideals.
Not really looking for much these days but if I were, it might be a toner.
Best if they are in the top 10% and approved by a GNJ. The coins that should do the very best are the ones that those with money are chasing after: top pops or the
top 2 or 3 coins in each series that are strong to high end and will improve point scores. There are some series where after you get past the top 2 or 3 coins the other ones
become novelty items. So one has to be aware of how many people are chasing top pop Barber halves at any time for example. In seated quarters that number might have
been as high as 3-4 back in 2007. Now that number might be only 1 or 2.
roadrunner
to have the greatest percentage increases. Indeed, the increases are likely to
accelerate substantially.
I think the prices of plus graded coins will go up substantially once the true rarity of these coins is realized by the market. If I had known how little PCGS has been using the + I would have paid up stronger for a few I let go and I wouldn't have been so quick to sell a couple of others that I have owned!
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 700
lesser coins will go side ways with a downward bias. Dealers are
tight on money, will buy only when they feel they have a quick flip
to a customer or another dealer. The dregs of the market will find buyers at 50%
or more on the dollar. Commems will continue to be soft all the way up to MS-66.
MS-67 and up or commems with outstanding natural color will hold their price.
The very top Type silver, will be steady to strong. There will be bidding wars for finest known.
WEAK MARKETS, TEND TO REPLACE QUALITY COINS BACK INTO STORAGE, UNTiL BETTER TIMES!
proof type even in top grade will lag MS state but not by much.
Morgan dollars will be soft up to MS-66 and a little stronger at MS-67 and up in grade. PL, Cameo
and DMPL in grades up to MS-65 will be lower, but it may prove to be a buying opportinity for these lively mirroe coins.
Gold coins in type,in higher grades, will continue to be in short supply ansd will be strong thru the year.
Gold proofs, as always will be the peac**ks tongues as always.
Bullion gold and low grade gold will be fairly weak.
The key will be coins with the look or the WOW factor. They will remain in high demand with strong prices.
The ANA Show as usual, will provide some measure of direction for the coin industry. For better or worse, this
seems to be the big bell weather Show.
Camelot
<< <i>While all precious metal coins see a boost when the market price for those metals increases I think we are in for a long period of economic stagnation and only high end coins that are purchased by those with a disposable income not really affected by recession concerns are going to be the coins that garner strong prices in 2011. >>
That has been the case (more or less) since the recession began. I initially thought that lots of nice collector coins would come out of the wood work as people needed to raise cash. I was dead wrong---what dealers saw come into their shops were bullion items, old jewelry, post-1945 mint products, and B-C classic coins. The good stuff (A coins) remains, for the most part, in strong hands. This is impacting small dealers seriously, as the collectors with modest budgets sit on the sidelines. The bull market for bullion is keeping these guys in business.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
For the mid level buyer (collector) mid-grade Barber coinage in the VF-EF range will see gains in prices just as in the past couple of years.
There have been more and more collectors of these coins,especially the well learned ones...these people will drive up prices because of the so few of these coins that are out there.Mainly because I feel that these collectors are set builders,not type collectors.
I also feel some of these collectors are holding on to the nicer coins and dates thus making some of these coins impossible to find in the above said grades.
Rob
As for what I think will be strong:
Silver should make a comeback soon, and that means MS63-66 Morgans also rebounding, bringing back by the end of the year the prices we saw back in early May. The trickle-up will also affect Peace dollars, Franklin halves, and Walking Liberty halves for the same reason, though the halves to a lesser extent than the dollar coins. Raw, circulated silver commons, behaving like bullion, will also climb accordingly.
At the very cheapest end of the spectrum, people are starting to notice the pre-1982 cents and hoard them from circulation. This will be the year they start disappearing from circulation. As the economy improves, we'll see less of people gutting their long-term savings jars, and the surge of wheat cents and other old coins turning up in circulation will subside.
The spread right now between gold bullion and MS63-65 Saints as well as MS62-64 Liberty $20s is rediculously low. Gold has gone up and up, and these coins have stayed the same or come down. This trend will have to change, otherwise, MS63 Saints will be cheaper than their gold content by January 2012--which obviously is not going to happen. Expect people to catch on the next time gold levels off. It is kind of plateaued now, but it will start climbing up again, soon, maybe to $1650 or $1700 an ounce before rebounding or stalling. That's when the double eagles make their comeback. Late date Liberty and common Indian Eagles will also climb around the same time, for the same reason, though the double eagles will benefit more.
I don't expect gold to crash any time soon. But, if it did, the shift in focus among gold collectors will probably switch over to rarities. At this point, the absurdly low-pop $5 and $10 Liberties that are going for just a hair over generic will start going up, while noteworthy and distinct rarities in the $1000 to $5000 range at present will start climbing--Classic head $2.5 and $5s, the 1911-D quarter eagle in AU grades, $3s, and odd branch mint gold (C, CC, and Dahlonega, as well as some O-mint dates) will climb.
Precious metals are likely to continue hogging the headlines, and with it the coin market. For this reason, the best-performing moderns will be bullion pieces, particularly low-mintage, high-profile pieces like the 5-ounce ATB quarters and the UHR 2009 Saint.
The Daniel Carr "1964-D" Peace dollar overstrike as a novelty is also likely to become a collector's item, in part because of its interest as a conversation piece. Expect it to hold its price for awhile. Don't expect any other imitations to compete, though; Carr's pieces are better-made and are the original source of the controversy.
Contrary to the misleading worries about ineligibility for re-grading, Secure Plus graded coins will garner a premium because of the added benefit of having been scanned and having passed "drug testing." NGC has recently advertised their own testing methods against doctoring on newly holdered coins, so coins in the newest holders will probably soon have some of the advantages that coins in the oldest holders have on the market--with a transient and slight drop in demand for coins in holders in the styles from the last decade. Expect an arms race between coin doctors and the grading services. Back-alley nose thumb and microwave ovens won't fool anyone anymore, and only the professionals--similar to the ones getting hammered in PCGS' lawsuit--will be able to develop more sophisticated ways around the grading services' evolving CSI-like labs. (Queue music by "The Who")
And, expect what's always true to remain true--the rare gets rarer, while the common gets telemarketed.
<< <i>Hello,
For the mid level buyer (collector) mid-grade Barber coinage in the VF-EF range will see gains in prices just as in the past couple of years.
There have been more and more collectors of these coins,especially the well learned ones...these people will drive up prices because of the so few of these coins that are out there.Mainly because I feel that these collectors are set builders,not type collectors.
I also feel some of these collectors are holding on to the nicer coins and dates thus making some of these coins impossible to find in the above said grades.
Rob >>
I agree. Years ago, I put together a set of Barber halves in ChAU---I did so because I could not afford MS63 and up coins. (I sold the set in 2007.) Since putting together this set, I have watched prices escalate to the point where mid-level collectors have been priced out of AU grades, and increasingly out of XF grades. The key is to exercise GREAT discrimination (i.e., only choose eye-appealing coins, and look for ones with original-looking surfaces) when buying these coins---putting together a nice set (ignoring the micro-O) will test one's patience.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
If I may ask, did you make a profit on the sale of the set,and do you regret selling it now?
Also, how long did it take you to put the set together.
Rob
<< <i>Sonoran-
If I may ask, did you make a profit on the sale of the set,and do you regret selling it now?
Also, how long did it take you to put the set together.
Rob >>
I made a very nice profit, and I VERY much regret selling it (as I realize that I sold it too soon). I spent almost 20 years putting it together (but it is important to note that I did not have the benefit of the internet when doing this). When I was done, the coins sat in a safety deposit box for more than 5 years without even being looked at. I was emotionally done with them, and used the money to buy early 19th-century U. S. coins (my main interest now).
There are lessons to be learned here. First, keep your ear to the ground as far as the sectors of the coin market that interest you are concerned--I didn't, and sold too soon (but I did not need the money). Second, there are many kinds of great investments in coins that do not involve buying choice-gem-superb MS or PR coins. Where there is genuine collector demand, coins in mid-circulated grades can yield good profits (even factoring in inflation and taxes). What is important is to be very choosy---quality for the grade has always been important and, given the way the market is heading, is increasing in importance (affecting price and liquidity).
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]