Where in the supply chain is the shortage?

Greeniejr · April 17, 2011 6:21AM

A couple days back Sanction started a thread about the lack of fresh coins hitting the market. I would like to argue that in reality there is no real shortage of material, rather most of the best material is being placed quickly with collectors and disappearing from websites within hours of being listed. There are only 2 groups facing shortages now. The investors that have infinitely deep pockets and are hoarding quantities of material that the size of our industry cannot possibly satisfy. The second group is people who collect material that just doesn't exist anymore. Nice circ Barbers, Walkers and SLQs just don't really exist anymore. They were heavily circulated series and they either survived as BU or AG. Many of the lucky few that survived in VF+ were scrubbed, dipped, treated in the 60s, 70s and 80s. Other than that, I really haven't heard too many complaints from clients about material not coming available.

ColonelJessup · April 17, 2011 7:41AM

Totally agree. As an elitist wannabe I can tell you that there are plenty of good deals around except in the top 1% of quality and 7% of rarity

The sophistry of a "shortage" is based on the simple premise "I can sell more than I can find right now".

LOL, how about that shortage of MS63-67 Morgans

tradedollarnut · April 17, 2011 7:50AM

<< Totally agree. As an elitist wannabe I can tell you that there are plenty of good deals around except in the top 1% of quality and 7% of rarity

The sophistry of a "shortage" is based on the simple premise "I can sell more than I can find right now".

LOL, how about that shortage of MS63-67 Morgans >>

Please offer me some 98.5% quality and 92.5% rarity items.

BaseballAbs · April 17, 2011 7:54AM

In the venues I'm collecting I do see a shortage in quality material. Your not going to get any complaints from clients who collect series of coins that are and seem to always will be in ample supply. ( Morgans would be an example )

Greeniejr · April 17, 2011 8:04AM

<< 

<< Totally agree. As an elitist wannabe I can tell you that there are plenty of good deals around except in the top 1% of quality and 7% of rarity

The sophistry of a "shortage" is based on the simple premise "I can sell more than I can find right now".

LOL, how about that shortage of MS63-67 Morgans >>

Please offer me some 98.5% quality and 92.5% rarity items.

>>

Well TDN let me ask you this, would you pay more than normal retail for quality material? And to that end, is it because you want material or is it because you have outlets with deep pockets who will pay whatever you ask irrespective of their true value.

mrpotatoheadd · April 17, 2011 8:16AM

<< I would like to argue that in reality there is no real shortage of material, rather most of the best material is being placed quickly with collectors and disappearing from websites within hours of being listed. >>

Some of the best material gets sold without ever showing up on websites or price lists.

ColonelJessup · April 17, 2011 8:47AM

<< 

<< Totally agree. As an elitist wannabe I can tell you that there are plenty of good deals around except in the top 1% of quality and 7% of rarity

The sophistry of a "shortage" is based on the simple premise "I can sell more than I can find right now".

LOL, how about that shortage of MS63-67 Morgans >>

Please offer me some 98.5% quality and 92.5% rarity items.

>>

Perhaps didn't express myself clearly as I might have. Top 1% of graded population or established rarity. By rarity logic you should now be convinced that the exquisite Amon Carter 1885 T$1 is right down your alley. And we've discussed how esthetically pleasing the Norweb coin is too. And by the pop-top logic you should have some really nice MS68 S-mint S$1's

I guess the 1836 50/00 50c PCGS PR64 CAC was below your standards, but perhaps SWSNBN was overly relaxed by the insidious effect of the shoulder rub I gave her before the session. Anyway, thanks for the opportunity; I bought it.

Gotta stay on top of that girl, TDN.

Her mind was probably more focused on Her upcoming fishing trip. I've heard She went fishing for sharks and caught two coin doctors.

keets · April 17, 2011 9:20AM

one question-----have most/all/any of the items with a perceived shortage ever been in readily availabe supply, or are they just historically scarce?? to use an example from the OP, i don't ever recall a time when XF Barber Half-Dollars were an easy coin to locate. all this discussion centers on "scarce" coins, but that's why they're referred to as scarce.

tradedollarnut · April 17, 2011 10:38AM

<< 

<< 

<< Totally agree. As an elitist wannabe I can tell you that there are plenty of good deals around except in the top 1% of quality and 7% of rarity

The sophistry of a "shortage" is based on the simple premise "I can sell more than I can find right now".

LOL, how about that shortage of MS63-67 Morgans >>

Please offer me some 98.5% quality and 92.5% rarity items.

>>

Well TDN let me ask you this, would you pay more than normal retail for quality material? And to that end, is it because you want material or is it because you have outlets with deep pockets who will pay whatever you ask irrespective of their true value. >>

If I really want a coin for my collection and the quality is all there then I pay what I can justify. For instance, I had 5 or 6 guesstimates of what the specimen chain cent was worth and they ranged from $1.25M to $1.5M ... I justified the final price of $1.9M somehow - because I really wanted to own the coin.

Completely different if one is a dealer and has to worry about making a profit on a coin.

RYK · April 17, 2011 10:41AM

Despite the shortage of nice coins, it seems that I am rarely in a position where there is nothing of interest to me out there. Instead, I am having to choose between this and that. Perhaps I should tighten up my focus and/or raise my standards.

MrEureka · April 17, 2011 10:53AM

There would not seem to be a shortage if all coins were raw. It only seems that way because most of the coins we might otherwise want to buy are now in slabs that, for one reason or another, make them uninteresting. Think about it...

RWB · April 17, 2011 11:02AM

A "supply chain" model does not fit coin selling very well.

tradedollarnut · April 17, 2011 11:14AM

The shortage isn't about price. You would be surprised at the price I would pay for the following in PCGS w/ CAC:

gem wreath or classic head cent
gem flowing hair silver
gem bust silver

especially a gem small eagle bust dollar

ColonelJessup · April 17, 2011 11:50AM

Mack and Brett have Bullowa's Flowing Hair which I believe graded 64 and they're in at over $1M. My guess on your limit price on your gem?

$1.75M

Not intended to get a public response. Some fool may give it away at $1.3M

Greeniejr · April 17, 2011 12:24PM

<< The shortage isn't about price. You would be surprised at the price I would pay for the following in PCGS w/ CAC:

gem wreath or classic head cent
gem flowing hair silver
gem bust silver

especially a gem small eagle bust dollar >>

To that I ask how many people actually collect those? And further, how many of those are actually collectors and not pure investors who are buying them because they are told to.

tradedollarnut · April 18, 2011 3:32AM

<< Mack and Brett have Bullowa's Flowing Hair which I believe graded 64 and they're in at over $1M. My guess on your limit price on your gem?

$1.75M

Not intended to get a public response. Some fool may give it away at $1.3M >>

I believe it's a 66 and I'm certain it's not for sale. Sometimes, you gotta settle for what you can get

Bochiman · April 18, 2011 3:43AM

There's some stuff out there that I would like for our collection(s), but some of the prices are, in my opinion, way out of line.
I don't mind premiums for nice material, but I am not going to pay 3-4x the rate/value for some of them. I'm no TDN with my pockets

If the dealers get the fish that bites, good for them. If they want to have inventory stay in their cases (and I continue to look at many of them), then that is their choice.
If they got reasonable on the prices, then I, and likely others, would snap them up.

Where in the supply chain is the shortage?

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