Coin pop manipulation

NewParadigm · February 11, 2011 10:20AM

How do the tpg's keep the pop reports reflective of the environment. Stated another way: Being that many collectors crack coins out and resubmit them (2,3+ times), doesn't that give a false illusion of over population of a coin? Won't this hurt the values of coins, especially low pop key dates?

RWB · February 11, 2011 10:38AM

Population reports are rarely accurate for the reasons you mention.

sinin1 · February 11, 2011 10:39AM

the TPGs ask that you return cracked out inserts periodically

if you had a low pop coin that you cracked out, it would probably be in your best interest to do so

Coinosaurus · February 11, 2011 10:51AM

Conversely you can use the crackout strategy to inflate the pops & deflate the prices.

Then buy 'em up when the price is down and send all your tags back in afterwards.

Voila, the pops go down and the price goes up again.

I can only see this working for condition rarities with very small pops (10 coins or less).

I've never heard of anyone actually doing it, but I am sure people have tried. It's not necessarily something you want to brag about, at least not in writing.

BAJJERFAN · February 11, 2011 11:34AM

For 1881-s Morgans in 65 the pops are prolly immaterial. For some of the low pop rare stuff, the serious high rollers probly know where each coin is and whether or not it has been regraded. If the Langbord Saints ever get into collectors' I'd guess those coins couldn't even fart without someone knowing about it or think they know about it.

keets · February 11, 2011 11:45AM

i think the affect of crack-outs is probably overstated and a non-factor for most coins as a whole. some ultra-low-pop issues or some coins with very small numbers at high grade levels may be a victim of this phenomenon, but those are few and far between.

NewParadigm · February 11, 2011 12:06PM

Thanks. All of you brought up very good points.

lusterlover · February 11, 2011 12:56PM

If you know your series, you know what the tough coins are (whether date or condition) regardless of what the pop report says.

avenue7 · February 11, 2011 12:58PM

For the reasons mentioned above, the coin pop is not 100% accurate but can be used as an indicator of general "rarity" of the series

roadrunner · February 11, 2011 1:21PM

<< <i>For the reasons mentioned above, the coin pop is not 100% accurate but can be used as an indicator of general "rarity" of the series >>

I was presented with this method on seated quarters recently and then realized that the majority of the dates below unc are low pop. One cannot really come to any general conclusions other than among the unc coins submitted. It's a guide, and many times not a good one. There are some series where in particular grades it's probably dead on. In some other areas it's dead off.

For comparing different series as a whole in mint state and unc/pf type coins it is very useful since the resubmission rates are pretty comparable.

roadrunner

Coin pop manipulation

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