Cards: BIN/Auction Ratio Now Above 10-to-1
storm888
Posts: 11,701 ✭✭✭
Search Return
Cards
Total Listings... 4,200,609
Auctions......... 337,814
BINs.............. 3,862,795
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Cards PSA
Total Listings...... 190,402
Auctions.............. 16,601
BINs................... 173,801
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Looks like sellers finally cracked the code.
Folks Who Bite Get Bitten. Folks Who Don't Bite Get Eaten.
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Comments
<< <i>I just hope they crack the code for pricing otherwise they wont sell anything if they dont start listing items for FMV. Or at least have best offer option to hopefully get that FMV. >>
Because so many people who sell on Ebay have zero profit motive, the market price is usually a price that realizes no profit for the seller. Seller who have a profit motive need to sell for above FMV, which is where the BIN comes into play.
If Bing Cashback didn't exist then none of these BIN's would EVER sell. Ebay is supposed to be an auction site not just another online store, that's what brought them the spotlight and all of the profits to begin with. There should be a totally different site for anything that isn't being auctioned.
Specializing in Certified Autograph Cards, Rookies, Rare Inserts and other quality modern cards! Over 8000 Cards in stock now! Come visit our physical store located at 1210 Main St. Belmar ,NJ
<< <i>interesting ratios. Of course I would never know because I only search auctions. When all of the sellers using ridiculous BIN's stop selling altogether then it will revert back to auctions or they will starve. Or maybe they'll just hold onto their cards and the market price will go shooting up due to a supply shortage.
If Bing Cashback didn't exist then none of these BIN's would EVER sell. Ebay is supposed to be an auction site not just another online store, that's what brought them the spotlight and all of the profits to begin with. There should be a totally different site for anything that isn't being auctioned. >>
Call me cheap, but I agree. It doesn't bother me if people put a BIN at 2x what an auction for the same card goes for, just as they shouldn't be insulted when I make an offer at 60% of their price. I am sure there are BIN's w/ the Best Offer option that are older than my kid...who is 2 1/2. Do those folks even want to sell?
Edit to add - check the completed sales (not listings)...what is the ratio of Bins/Stores to Auction? Certainly nowhere near 10:1...maybe 1:1 for what I look at? That may be generous to BINs
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I could not have said it better. I totally agree with every point you both made.
Mickey71
<< <i>Too many sellers realized they can no longer make money with auctions. Thos sellers who need quick cash will still use auctions, while smart sellers will continue to mainly use BINs. >>
I disagree. Buyers of collectibles prefer auctions to overpriced BIN's, and so auctions may grow even more appealing as they become fewer in number. I've had many recent auctions end far higher than my BIN would've been. Last week I sold a '77T set for $420 at auction. My BIN would've been around $200. It's not like it's a rare set, it just had some competitive bidding on the last day. I sold a 79T PSA 10 for $55 and based on the pop I expected around 20. I agree it can work the other way, too. I've had several auctions end quite a bit lower than I hoped, but they seem to be offset (and then some) by the bidding wars that still occur on items at auction.
We are about 2-years into JD's 3-year plan to fundamentally transform EBAY
via "disruptive innovation."
Sadly, for everybody involved, JD failed to read what Clayton Christensen -
the academic father of DI - made pretty clear in his writings: You will almost
always destroy an existing business, if you employ DI tactics. (Typical Bain
Capital alum mistaken thought process. If it works for startups, it must work
even better for an existing market leader, thought JD.)
AMZN has always been JD's target. The problem is that he has not hit the
target ONCE, but he keeps shooting anyway.
Neither EBAY nor any public company can adequately grow numbers as an
online-auction venue. JD did get that part right, but failed to understand that
changing EBAY into an AMZN was simply neither possible nor needed by the
retail marketplace. When I can get what I need from AMZN, why would I
want to buy it from an EBAY seller?
The silver lining - for collectors - in the tragedy is that AMZN has shown no
interest in the collectibles market. This has created a "wholesale for everybody"
atmosphere at EBAY that is just now being displaced.
If AMZN were to make a move into collectibles/auctions, the market MIGHT well
recalibrate and deliver reasonable pricing for buyers AND profitable transactions
for sellers. The challenge is that AMZN absolutely KNOWS you cannot make easy
money running an auction venue UNLESS you have a captive payment scheme
(PayPal) that spits out "money for nothing" on every transaction.
Further, the market has already decided that auctions of non-collectible items
were just a passing fad. Since collectibles make up less than 10% of EBAY's
listings, AMZN has, apparently, decided to let its incompetent competitor keep
them.
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eBay Traffic at 6-Year Low for March Data
By Ina Steiner
AuctionBytes.com
April 15, 2010
eBay's traffic for the month of March was at a 6-year low compared to previous March numbers. Data provided by Nielsen show that eBay received 49.6 million unique visitors in March 2010, down over 18% from 61 million in March 2007, the peak year for March data.
eBay CEO John Donahoe initiated a 3-year plan to turnaround the marketplaces business after taking the helm in 2008. But unless sales defy traffic trends, he may have a tough time convincing shareholders that the plan is working when he faces them at the company's annual meeting at the end of the month.
It will be difficult for the CEO to blame the economy. Forrester Research pegged online retail sales as growing 11% in 2009. (It's forecasting similar growth rates for 2010.) And while Nielsen 2-year numbers reveal that eBay's traffic decreased 13% in March 2010 compared to March 2008, Amazon.com's traffic increased 17% for the same period.
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I can understand where sellers would want to put BIN's because cards have been selling so low at auctions lately....
Sure they're not going to sell much using BIN, but at least they won't be losing any money at auction.
I would think that more auctions would come up since that free listing thingy, where if you list cards for 99 cents starting bid is free. I guess thats ebay way of trying to make people put their stuff up and make customers happy that they bought a $50 card for 5 bucks.... Its bad for sellers and buyer right now and hope things will get better in the near future.
"...auctions may grow even more appealing as they become fewer in number. I've had many recent auctions end far higher than my BIN would've been..........just had some competitive bidding on the last day.......I agree it can work the other way, too. I've had several auctions end quite a bit lower than I hoped, but they seem to be offset (and then some) by the bidding wars that still occur on items at auction...."
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You are right. But, hit and miss results are really not what
most sellers are looking for.
The BIN/Auction ratio is certain to fluctuate until it hits its
comfort zone; sellers with deep pockets are now in a spot
to decide what that zone will be.
If their is a settling point, I expect it will be in the 25/1 range -
or worse - UNLESS EBAY becomes a more fun/reasonable place
for sellers to operate.
<< <i>i recall seeing a bunch of psa/dna autographs bin a month ago they still linger >>
Ive been watching tons of graded 50's-60's cards of BIN's for 10 months and they are still lingering. With the small number of auctions, this is actually good news for reputable sellers who still use auctions. Because of the little competition they are getting nice prices.
<< <i>Search Return
Cards
Total Listings... 4,200,609
Auctions......... 337,814
BINs.............. 3,862,795
Search Return
Cards PSA
Total Listings...... 190,402
Auctions.............. 16,601
BINs................... 173,801
.........................................................................
Looks like sellers finally cracked the code. >>
<< <i>eBay's traffic for the month of March was at a 6-year low compared to previous March numbers. Data provided by Nielsen show that eBay received 49.6 million unique visitors in March 2010, down over 18% from 61 million in March 2007, the peak year for March data. >>
Perhaps the decline in traffic is correlated to the decline in auctions? Fewer auctions = fewer unique visitors? Cuz BINs are just boring. You buy what you need, ho hum, then you go away. Like you said, if Ebay is becoming just another Amazon, what's the point anymore? And what's the incentive for a new buyer to create an ebay account - so they can buy an ipod with the same BIN price they can find at Walmart? No more deals to be had. Auctions are what made Ebay unique and appealing. People like sorting through them, finding good deals. Can't do that with just BIN format. It makes sense to me that people have lost interest in the site.
I just hope that by the time Ebay goes 100% BIN, they've spun off another site dedicated to auction-only, for collectibles and such.
"...if the cracks in the armor of ebay can't or won't be repaired, and Amazon is trenched firmly in place, do you see any viable true-auction company -existing or startup - that with a rational business plan taking over where ebay basically jumped ship? ...."
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I think it is possible, but not very likely.
The challenge is nobody can figure out how to make money
doing it.
NO big public company can profit enough by trying it.
NO little startup can spend enough to break in.
NObody big has gotten mad enough at EBAY to punish them
by jumping in. MSFT/GOOG/YHOO/AMZN and others have
certainly looked at it, but crushing opponents for "free" is
really not much of a motivator for public companies.
With "financial reform" looming, it is possible that EBAY will
spinoff PayPal for HUGE money, at some point, to avoid the
regulators. That could cause a new crew to get back to
basics, after the windfall was distributed to existing shareholders.
(The pressure would be off AND they would still have the
"leading" auction venue.)
MA has been making moves that indicate they have some
interest in some kind of online retailing. (V, also.) But, at
this point, it looks like they really just want to make the
credit-card transaction rake on sales that come from any
merchandise portals they are involved in.
MANY public companies would pay for the secret sauce, but
so far nobody has invented it. Show them HOW to make
money and they will pay you for the secret.
I think we are likely pretty much stuck with EBAY for a long
time to come.
BIN and BING ...very similar on purpose?
Making money in any market requires work. Whether it's cars, boats, sportscards, etc...I work my ass off to find deals and close them. Then I go the extra mile when listing something. I provide a ton of scans, a lot of detail, and answer all questions. It's the formula for success in any retail sales business. You give the customer great support, become a top seller, and realize greater profits. As long as you buy stuff in the correct range, it's a foolproof business model. I start all of my listings at .99 with no reserve whether it's a $5 item or a $5000 item.
I believe that buyers are starting to realize that you have to sift through the BIN's to find product these days - and the BO option facilitates some back and forth. Ignoring BIN's completely at this point is probably a mistake - just use your same prospecting abilities as there are certainly deals out there in BIN-land.
Bosox1976
<< <i>just use your same prospecting abilities as there are certainly deals out there in BIN-land. >>
I've found some great deals, but they've all involved email negotiations to get the BIN price down.
WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
Pardon me for jumping in . . . but I have informally tracked PSA listings (on ebay) for a while cuz that's nearly always a key word for me.
If memory serves, the ratio has generally been about 2:1 i.e., 2 BINs for every 1 auction -- I didn't track the absolute numbers.
Now that search is consistent with Storm's observation -- currently greater than 10:1
Given the new pricing (free .99c listings) I would have assumed the trend to move in the other direction due to a flood of .99c auctions but apparently that is not happening.
As an auction-buyer / BIN-seller, I'm having a tougher time buying -- but similar sales results.
Longer term (assuming this continues) I expect this to slow/reduce my sales because I'll have less to sell as it is very hard (if not impossible) to make $ buying at BIN and reselling at BIN.
Scott
Always plenty of PSA-graded cards in my ebay store -- https://ebay.com/str/thelumbercompanysportscards
Folks, for all the griping about them - and I do it too - stores work. Stuff has been selling out of my rather small store like hotcakes. It has to be priced right, however.
I actually think auctions still can work for certain items and if you list them in volume.
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
These fee changes are probably a major cause of the traffic drop on eBay, and they are a reflection of John Donahoe's attempt to compete against Amazon. He has not succeeded and probably won't, for many reasons, only one of which is that Amazon has much tighter control over the end-to-end customer experience. For example, if I'm a merchant selling on Amazon's marketplace, I better darn well ship quality product in a timely fashion. If I don't, they boot you off in short order. For Amazon itself, they do a fantastic job on assortment, pricing, shipping, and logistics--FAR superior to eBay.
I think eBay will be around for a long time, and they'll find a way to carve out a portion of the market for BINs; however, Amazon has been, and will likely continue to take market share so long as they continue to provide a superior end-to-end customer experience.
<< <i>Storm, what was the ratio before the changes? >>
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I dunno.
Some of the late posted estimates may be correct.
It is prolly apples/oranges though. With the new scheme
of counting everything in CORE, previous ratios might
not be too meaningful. The "good" info will come when
we can compare todays 10-to-1 numbers with those
we get as time passes.
............
In tomorrow's conference call, JD will likely lightly/heavily
address the current ratio AND what he thinks it means to
his "transformation" efforts.
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Today's Listing Counts (Top Three Sites, Excluding AMZN)
eBay ........... 102,224,974.......... -376,459
eCrater ......... 3,307,714 .... +4,256
Bonanzle ....... 2,992,716 ..... +25,650
Counts at both the moon and the ranch have benefited from
the recent EBAY "changes."
"...These fee changes are probably a major cause of the traffic drop on eBay, and they are a reflection of John Donahoe's attempt to compete against Amazon. He has not succeeded and probably won't, for many reasons, only one of which is that Amazon has much tighter control over the end-to-end customer experience. For example, if I'm a merchant selling on Amazon's marketplace, I better darn well ship quality product in a timely fashion. If I don't, they boot you off in short order. For Amazon itself, they do a fantastic job on assortment, pricing, shipping, and logistics--FAR superior to eBay...."
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The March numbers noted were calcd before the scheme change.
The traffic-trend has been DOWN and will continue to be DOWN.
I dunno if it will get worse, but it will NEVER return to the heyday.
AMZN is indeed VERY strict. Bad EBAY-sellers should not waste
their time trying it; they will not make it.
BUT, AMZN is not petty/arbitrary/ridiculous/stupid like EBAY is.
The AMZN fulfillment scheme is second to none.
When I need/want to buy something, AMZN and WMT are my
choices. (WMT lets you order online and pickup at your closest
store. The lines in rural areas are short or none; city lines are
sometimes quite long. Lines are shortest late at night.)
<< <i>"..
AMZN is indeed VERY strict. Bad EBAY-sellers should not waste
their time trying it; they will not make it.
>>
I went to amazon the other day to look for some cd's. I had trouble finding sellers with 100% feedback(unlike ebay). Most were around 95-96% which is considered not that great on ebay.
Being amazon dont accept money orders/checks, OR paypal, i dont buy from that site.
<< <i>Being amazon dont accept money orders/checks, OR paypal, i dont buy from that site. >>
Amazon accepts Credit Cards which is actually the most foolproof way to buy something!
Also bear in mind, the majority of people DO NOT leave feedback on Amazon. You are more likely to hear from the few disgruntleds than the many happy buyers. Thats the nature of the beast.
<< <i> You get the idea.........Foolish negatives can help bring a seller's average down.
Just the same with ebay.
<< <i>Being amazon dont accept money orders/checks, OR paypal, i dont buy from that site. >>
Amazon accepts Credit Cards which is actually the most foolproof way to buy something!
>>
The problem with credit cards is, many cc users have low limits, especially with the new cc laws it is much worse. For instance i have a mastercard and have a $1000 a month limit. After i pay a few bills, there isnt much left to spend. And there are alot of people who cant get credit cards anymore due to stolen identity.
<< <i>
<< <i> You get the idea.........Foolish negatives can help bring a seller's average down.
Just the same with ebay.
<< <i>Being amazon dont accept money orders/checks, OR paypal, i dont buy from that site. >>
Amazon accepts Credit Cards which is actually the most foolproof way to buy something!
>>
The problem with credit cards is, many cc users have low limits, especially with the new cc laws it is much worse. For instance i have a mastercard and have a $1000 a month limit. After i pay a few bills, there isnt much left to spend. And there are alot of people who cant get credit cards anymore due to stolen identity. >>
Amazon accepts more than just credit cards. The accept debit cards, or you can have purchase taken right out of your checking account.
<< <i>Also bear in mind, the majority of people DO NOT leave feedback on Amazon. You are more likely to hear from the few disgruntleds than the many happy buyers. Thats the nature of the beast. >>
That has been my experience. I usually get feedback from 70-80% of my buyers on eBay, but I have not gotten any feedback from the 5 or 6 sales I've done on Amazon. I have gotten some very complimentary pms from buyers, though.
As to the differences between eBay and Amazon, here's an experience I had yesterday. I had been looking for some sports-related DVDs and searching the BINs on eBay. I finally found one of the DVDs at the lowest possible eBay BIN price (including free shipping) and was ready to hit the Buy It Now button. But just for grins, I went and checked for the same DVD on the Amazon Marketplace. I found it for $1.52 less (shipping included) on Amazon, FROM THE SAME SELLER I WAS GOING TO BUY FROM ON EBAY!!!
- John Wooden