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Interesting read on analysis of "collectibles", past and future.

I found this on another collectible forum and thought i'd share it here since we are in the middle of recession this may be a reflection of our past and future as collectors in general. The book is based on the financial markets however the chapter reviews the collectibles market.

At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market
by Robert R. Prechter Jr.

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  • << <i>Like vinyl record albums, baseball cards have a risk of falling in value for decades until most of those who know and love baseball are gone. >>



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    That really is a good read martin. I think you should have typed it though, you know, courtesy for the dial uppers, lol.
  • akuracy503akuracy503 Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭
    As explained in the chapter, professional grading of cards has placed a new element in the sportscards hobby, further seperating the raw vs graded prices.
    With set registries in play how will our future look for new blood swiping up the investment potential cards.

    There is definitely an elite group of folks controlling the high end of all vintage, it would not be a fair assessment to guage our future on the high end market, the folks with the most money today will always control the top stuff til they get sick of collecting/hoarding or croak and die.

    For the normal joe's which make up another portion of the registry market today who will take over in the future?

    If we see a decline in interest/demand we will continue to prices driven down, or at least until the majority of us are forced to sell and throw in the towel.

    To sum it up are we a dieing breed?

    I am in my early 30's, grew up in the baseball craze generation in the 80's early 90's.
    Case in point I am one of the few out of my peers to continue my love for the hobby today, I buy up vintage cards that I always dreamed of having, yet I am one of only few from my peers.

    I can only imagine with the next generation... hardly any of them growing up collecting cards, are we in denial when we expect our supply of vintage today will fuel the demand of tomorrow?

    I love this hobby but I am starting to come to my senses that the opportunity cost is too great for the risk involved.

    I will continue to collect and expect i'll have enough peers in the sportscard world to fuel my buying/selling until I am too old to comprehend.
    But I sure am not going to pass my collection to my children thinking it was money well invested.

    This topic has been bugging me for quite some time since our recession has kicked into full swing.
    Your views are always welcome and I encourage healthy debates

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  • akuracy503akuracy503 Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭
    I know the traditional I'm not in this for the investment I do it for a "hobby!" arguement will be thrown out here in this discussion.

    But lets get real...if your hobby assets are even a small % of your overall wealth you might want to think about that statement, at this point you are holding an investment of sort.

    If you are financially responsible you'd consider the risks...

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  • akuracy503akuracy503 Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭
    Glad you enjoyed it Trent....
    I took the screen shots of an image so I couldn't cut the text....type all of that out at midnight? yea right I have to be up in 6 hours...

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  • IronmanfanIronmanfan Posts: 5,525 ✭✭✭✭
    Interesting read that I'll have to devote more time to later but I think it's important to know when this was written/printed...(it can't be a current piece). Appears to have been written well over 10 years ago
    Successful dealings with Wcsportscards94558, EagleEyeKid, SamsGirl214, Volver, DwayneDrain, Oaksey25, Griffins, Cardfan07, Etc.
  • chaz43chaz43 Posts: 2,140 ✭✭✭
    As long as they are playing Major League Baseball and as long as they are making sports cards, there will be a sports card market for young and old. Period. chaz
  • akuracy503akuracy503 Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭
    Chaz,

    You stated the obvious...but trends/traditions etc do not always go hand in hand with future cycles.

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  • PoppaJPoppaJ Posts: 2,818
    I personally feel that true collectibles have and will be around a long, long time. To me, a true collectible, in the sport memorabilia arena, is an item that was collected with no intent of monetary gain at the time that it was purchased, but with time, has gained a considerable amount of value mostly due to nostalgia first, and then rarity.

    Collecting sportscards into the '70s hadn't changed much from when I was a kid in the '50s.
    I'm sure many of you can remember how the sportscard/memorabilia hobby spiked during the late '80s aka the Griffey Jr era.
    And then, during the '90s, packs went from 50 cents to $1 to $5 to $20 etc. The day of going to the ballpark to get a free signature from your favorite player was replaced with high-priced signings at a card show etc.

    Then, the hobby, thanks to advanced technology, innovation, and a splash of greed, really got out of hand. Collectors fell in love with Game-Worn Patches, Game-Worn Jerseys, Game-Used Bats, and even Event-Worn Dresses.

    Think about the money that has literally already been tossed away, by so-called collectors, on modern day junk. People are still paying ridiculously high prices for cards today. Unless someone is flipping these cards to make money, why would anyone pay such high prices for players that could suddenly be out of the sport for reasons like bodily injury, criminal action, the next best player to come along, or God forbid even death?

    I'm NOT saying that no one should collect modern day cards etc. Everyone should collect what and who they like. I just feel that too many people today are treating this great hobby with more business interest than personal enjoyment. Many others are simply throwing their money away, when they could have invested it more wisely (if investment was a part of their plan).

    I would love to read an article someday, that separates modern and vintage collectibles, in terms of investment. It's just not the same playing field.

    Vintage has and will endure the best and worst of times; modern has not, and will not.

    p.s. If thinking about investing in gold or silver, buy bars, ingots etc., NOT coins.

    JMHO,
    PoppaJ





  • chaz43chaz43 Posts: 2,140 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Chaz,

    You stated the obvious...but trends/traditions etc do not always go hand in hand with future cycles. >>




    That's right..... it is the obvious and why it will always be with us regardless of cycles. chaz
  • dzolotdzolot Posts: 174 ✭✭
    Great read Akuracy. Thanks very much for posting. Looks like this was written in 95 or 96. I collect cards (mostly vintage) as a hobby, the sense of history the cards give me, etc. I have no intention of selling and always say it is not an investment -- buying apple or google stock is an investment, not baseball cards. With that being said, the value of the cards and cyclical trends, etc. can not be ignored if baseball cards make up a significant (i'd say 5% or more) of one's net worth.

    One thing i'm sure of is that if professional baseball ever disappeared, we're all in big trouble!! Can anyone think of a sport that was played professionally at some point in history that is no longer played? I can't.

    I agree with some of the other posts, that vintage and specifically high-end, or "investment" grade materials generally appreciate the most and hold the best in a down-turn. With all that being said, where do people think we stand in the cycle? Top, bottom, some where in between? What economic conditions are ideal for a boom in card prices?

    I guess in the back of my mind, I have a hope that there will be a bubble in the card market (hope we're not in it now ; ) like the coin market in 89, where prices get so rediculously high that I will be tempted to sell my collection... Of course, after the market crashes, I will buy everything back for a fraction of the price ; )
    I have twelve Sports Cards videos on youtube w/ over 75,000 views in total!! Vintage cards like 1951 Mantle, 33 Goudey Ruth, T206 Cobb, etc (copy and paste link below):

    http://www.youtube.com/user/dzolot

    Thanks for watching. Hope you enjoyed!!

    - I would encourage all collectors to post a video of their collection - I have found it to be a very rewarding way to share my sports cards!!


  • << <i>

    << <i>Chaz,

    You stated the obvious...but trends/traditions etc do not always go hand in hand with future cycles. >>




    That's right..... it is the obvious and why it will always be with us regardless of cycles. chaz >>





    Agree 100%


  • << <i>Think about the money that has literally already been tossed away, by so-called collectors, on modern day junk. People are still paying ridiculously high prices for cards today. Unless someone is flipping these cards to make money, why would anyone pay such high prices for players that could suddenly be out of the sport for reasons like bodily injury, criminal action, the next best player to come along, or God forbid even death? >>



    Death would help sales

    Monetary gain and rarity are nice, but have nothing to do with defining a collectable. Something that is not rare and likely to lose resale value can be just as collectable as anything else. And when someone realizes this when they buy, it gives them a lot more power. You can buy one Peyton Manning card for $5 000, or you can by one for 10-cents, or hundreds for any price inbetween. To me, the only thing that defines whether or not either of those are collectable is if you can still enjoy them at least occasionally, otherwise it simply becomes merchandise or trash (or I guess a gift could be best. . . )

    You can buy this stuff as a hobby, an investment, a job or as a gamble. I've found the first one is be a great value. . .
    Tom
  • Nathaniel1960Nathaniel1960 Posts: 2,331 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I see record collecting making a comeback. Although I bought a stack of Beatles Singles and LPs from the Apple Records pressings for about $1 each, absolute mint condition with sleeves, thinking I'd hit the lotto, then went on Ebay and saw that's what they sell for. Amazing.
    Kiss me once, shame on you.
    Kiss me twice.....let's party.
  • I buy cards that I like. I keep them to enjoy, not for investment purposes.

    If the game of baseball disappeared tomorrow, I'd probably still keep all of my cards and other collectibles as a keepsake and memory.
  • PowderedH2OPowderedH2O Posts: 2,443 ✭✭
    I've always felt that there were too many cards out there. When I grew up collecting (the 70's), if you said 1975 Tom Seaver, everyone knew you meant Topps. Oh sure, there might be a Hostess Twinkie card, or a Frosted Flakes, but the base Topps set was THE Seaver. So, if you are a Seaver fan and want that nostalgic feel, the Topps card is the one you get. But for the kid now that is a Derek Jeter fan, what card does he identify with? Each year there are literally dozens (if not hundreds, if not thousands) of Jeter cards printed. So instead of having that feel for the one card, there are more than he can possibly collect. Fast forward... that kid's highest earning years will be 25-30 years later. How can he have a nostalgic feel for cards he never saw? The hobby is now geared towards inserts and rarities. Well, that's great, but not for me. I grew up collecting complete sets. Now I just wait until the end of the year and pick them up at Target. I've got boxes full of sets that in most cases I have seen the cards only once or twice. The only fun I have is going after the vintage cards that I collected in my youth. I doubt today's youth will have that pleasure in 25 years. That should put a fork in the hobby. Just my opinion.

    Sam
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  • Cool article though a bit dated. Cards as an investment will not return until people start working again and the economy turns around, however I see very little additional upside in prices realized in the future. The new generation may eventually collect the all time greats, but players who were HOFers in a different era will cool off significantly. Just look at the prices on many Rookie Cards from the 50s and 60s compared to some of the prices payed for "scarce" junk from today. Same goes for cards from the recent greats who have fallen short of the lofty expectations (Bonds, Rodriguez, Ramirez, Clemens etc.). Their prices will only go down after they retire if they do not end being the greatest of all time, breaking all the records, or doing roids.
    Not to pick on Pujols, but if I was holding any of his high priced Rookies, I would dump them right now, put the money in a savings account/investment vehicle, and buy them all back in 10 years when they are half the price. I have a may 1992 Beckett sitting on my desk. Just for sanity check purposes let's look at the prices of the Rookie Cards of some of the recently retired or still playing at that time versus their value in a Beckett from the end of 2008:

    1992 Beckett Prices

    Reggie Jackson 1969 Topps Rookie -- 350 Beckett Low 550 Beckett High
    Nolan Ryan 1968 Topps Rookie-- 1050 Beckett Low 1500 Beckett High
    Steve Carlton 1965 Topps Rookie-- 300 Beckett Low 500 Beckett High
    Mike Schmidt 1973 Topps Rookie -- 310 Beckett Low 460 Beckett High

    2008 Beckett Prices

    Reggie Jackson 1969 Topps Rookie -- 150 Beckett Low 300 Beckett High -- 46% Reduction in Price from 1992
    Nolan Ryan 1968 Topps Rookie-- 250 Beckett Low 500 Beckett High -- 66% Reductions in Price from 1992
    Steve Carlton 1965 Topps Rookie-- 100 Beckett Low 200 Beckett High -- 60% Reduction in Price from 1992
    Mike Schmidt 1973 Topps Rookie -- 75 Beckett Low 150 Beckett High -- 67% Reduction in Price from 1992


    So as we can see players who were arguably the greatest of their era have tumbled in price as they have moved further and further away from their playing days. All of these players were extremely popular at the time, but have lost the connection with today's buyers. Coupled with the shrinking card collector's market we have a situation where most of the people who want to own these cards already own them driving down demand further. Nolan Ryan, Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton and Reggie Jackson have no emotional relationship with today's buyers and I really see the prices for their cards even shrinking further.



    Now let’s look at some all time, Mount Rushmore greats, Mantle, Mays and Aaron. For comparison purposes we will look at each of their issues from the 1960 Topps set. You ask why did I pick 1960? Well it is a nice round number, I like the set and all 3 players were established in their careers. I am also avoiding their Rookie Cards which in high grade form go for many multiples of the Beckett High Price and have a large standard deviation from the Beckett average in day to day sales.

    1992 Beckett Prices

    1960 Mickey Mantle – 215 Beckett Low 350 Beckett High
    1960 Willie Mays – 80 Beckett Low 120 Beckett High
    1960 Hank Aaron – 75 Beckett Low 120 Beckett High

    2008 Beckett Prices

    1960 Mickey Mantle – 300 Beckett Low 600 Beckett High 71% Increase from 1992
    1960 Willie Mays – 60 Beckett Low 120 Beckett High 0% Increase from 1992
    1960 Hank Aaron – 60 Beckett Low 120 Beckett High 0% Increase from 1992

    What we see is that players, who were considered all time greats, have maintained the value of their cards over a decade in a half, and with the exception of Mantle who has actually increased in value. Even the Mantle with its 71% increase in price would still be trailing from a return on investment standpoint when compared to broad stock market index such as the S&P 500 over the same time frame.



    What does this all tell me? Cards as an investment are probably still on the down swing and will most likely continue that trend with the exception of the all time greats for the foreseeable future. Players outside of New York or tainted with roids will be in even more trouble if they do not end their career as top 3 all time, and that may not save them either in the case of Clemens and Bonds. Vintage cards will probably hold their value, but could just as easily lose their value as the number of buyers continues to shrink. Money can be made in “prospecting” buy gobbling up rookie cards in the first few years of a player’s career, but if the trends do not predict all time greatness dump in rapid fashion. Treat this like a hobby and not an investment and you will always get enjoyment out of your collection.

  • Thanks, Acuracy. Such reads are interesting and worthwhile.

    I am a relatively new collector to graded cards, just rediscovering the passion last year after leaving the hobby as a teen in the early '90s. I had never seen a graded card until last year. Now in my mid-30s, I've definitely been what most anyone would call a strong buyer, and have spent five figures on a single graded card multiple times. Once my brother, three years my junior, saw what I was doing, he followed suit since he was already eBay savvy. This also rubbed off on one of my local friends, and he's become a new hobbyist and strong buyer too. Two of the three of us are Registry collectors, and two of the three of our group collect football. My younger brother only buys baseball (Cobb, Mays, Musial, Berra, LaRussa, Torre mostly), even though the only baseball he cares to watch are the playoffs. We all buy vintage and from an investment standpoint feel safe here. Intentional or not, one must consider it an "investment" when considerable sums are spent.

    Of course sports card collecting will not be as popular as it was around 1988; that's because it couldn't get more popular. Kids that didn't even like sports had cards then. It's certainly become a mostly-adult hobby now, complete with opportunity to analyze POP reports, VCP graphs, and applied algorithm if one so chooses. I think the hobby is in remarkably strong shape in the short-term (especially once we're post-recession) as a lot of collectors are in their 30s like me. It's also in good shape in the intermediate term as 30s, 40s, and 50s-age collectors become 40s, 50s, and 60s in a decade. However, for the very long-term, it will only continue to thrive if retail sports card packs return to convenience stores soon in order to give future collectors that frame of reference.

    The fact that we're experiencing the strongest economic recession in many generations, yet most vintage cards still sell for 80-100+% of their pre-recessionary levels is amazing to me! This is despite the fact that sports cards have no intrinsic value while joblessness pervades and minimum monthly mortgage payments seem a dream for many. This makes me feel even better about the near and intermediate term going forward. Americans will always like sports, want sports memorabilia, and cards will continue to be the most popular memorabilia for quite some time due to the collectibility. It's also one of the very few investments where one can find a high emotional connection with the likeness portrayed on the card, the antithesis to a droning (but important) quarterly mutual fund statement.

    However, after my latest experience, I think that more of my portfolio will be tilting toward SGC-holdered examples.


  • << <i>Thanks, Acuracy. Such reads are interesting and worthwhile.

    I am a relatively new collector to graded cards, just rediscovering the passion last year after leaving the hobby as a teen in the early '90s. I had never seen a graded card until last year. Now in my mid-30s, I've definitely been what most anyone would call a strong buyer, and have spent five figures on a single graded card multiple times. Once my brother, three years my junior, saw what I was doing, he followed suit since he was already eBay savvy. This also rubbed off on one of my local friends, and he's become a new hobbyist and strong buyer too. Two of the three of us are Registry collectors, and two of the three of our group collect football. My younger brother only buys baseball (Cobb, Mays, Musial, Berra, LaRussa, Torre mostly), even though the only baseball he cares to watch are the playoffs. We all buy vintage and from an investment standpoint feel safe here. Intentional or not, one must consider it an "investment" when considerable sums are spent.

    Of course sports card collecting will not be as popular as it was around 1988; that's because it couldn't get more popular. Kids that didn't even like sports had cards then. It's certainly become a mostly-adult hobby now, complete with opportunity to analyze POP reports, VCP graphs, and applied algorithm if one so chooses. I think the hobby is in remarkably strong shape in the short-term (especially once we're post-recession) as a lot of collectors are in their 30s like me. It's also in good shape in the intermediate term as 30s, 40s, and 50s-age collectors become 40s, 50s, and 60s in a decade. However, for the very long-term, it will only continue to thrive if retail sports card packs return to convenience stores soon in order to give future collectors that frame of reference.

    The fact that we're experiencing the strongest economic recession in many generations, yet most vintage cards still sell for 80-100+% of their pre-recessionary levels is amazing to me! This is despite the fact that sports cards have no intrinsic value while joblessness pervades and minimum monthly mortgage payments seem a dream for many. This makes me feel even better about the near and intermediate term going forward. Americans will always like sports, want sports memorabilia, and cards will continue to be the most popular memorabilia for quite some time due to the collectibility. It's also one of the very few investments where one can find a high emotional connection with the likeness portrayed on the card, the antithesis to a droning (but important) quarterly mutual fund statement.

    However, after my latest experience, I think that more of my portfolio will be tilting toward SGC-holdered examples. >>




    I agree with you for the most part, but I have to say mid-grade card values have gottten absolutely hammered during this recession. I am buying examples of HOFers from the 50s and 60s typically for 33-60% off of SMR when using eBay Auction style format (might be the reason so many Buy it Nows are popping up). It is the new shiny cards with autographs which seem to be holding more value which have a wider appeal to the entire market. If your brother is buying Cobb, Mays, and Musial his "investment" should be somewhat stable, however as my post above showed, these cards have not been appreciating over the past 15 plus years so calling an assest which simply maintains it's value an investment is highly debateable.

    J
  • itzagoneritzagoner Posts: 8,753 ✭✭
    1992 Beckett vs. 2008 Beckett.......interesting......doesn't take into account that in '92 Beckett was gospel.....why? NO SMR.

    PSA was just getting a foothold in the card market around that time, and the progressive movement from raw vintage cards to slabbed vintage cards created an ever evolving price structure.....as more people moved into collecting/investing in slabbed cards, the trust and faith in the raw equivalents virtually disappeared along with the higher values.

    in a somewhat strange twist, it seems more people are moving back to raw rather aggressively as trust and faith in slabbed material seems to be on the fade, and more and more people discover that what potentially altered/trimmed/tampered material might be in the slab could be had just as easily for much less without it.

    one thing is for certain.....there will always be cycles and a market in which to compete or collect.

    i doubt that will ever change.
  • Nice follow-ups, fellas. Thanks.

    Jeff, you eloquently stated just what I was thinking about Beckett card values between 1992 and 2008. It's incomparable due to the proliferation of third-party grading in that time period, and that there is less trust in raw product now than then.

    Justin, congratulations on scooping up some "recessionary" deals on mid-grade cards! You're right; my earlier post should have stated how remarkable it is that it's high grade vintage graded material values that have held up astonishingly well through the worst recession in generations.

    I'm mostly into in traditional investment vehicles, but also am certainly more into real estate, physical metal bullion, and sports memorabilia than most. To be a lucrative investment, it needs more than just asset value now, it needs a future. Skate to where the hockey puck is going, not to where it is. To that end, feeling confident that collectors aged 30s, 40s, and 50s will have even more earning and spending power in ten years (40s, 50s, and 60s) is the dynamic going forward that puts confidence in my investment.

    Yes, I don't know whether my brother is buying the best investment cards for price growth now (Cobb, Mays, Musial, Berra, LaRussa, Torre). I feel better about my own - and that's why I choose to buy them, of course. What do I choose or what have I already added? The 1953 Topps Mickey Mantle, 1957 Topps Bill Russell, 1958 Topps Jim Brown rookie card, 1950 Otto Graham rookie card, 1935 Bronko Nagurski and Red Grange, etc., most in high grade. Why material like this? It's high grade enough to weather recession, and they're old enough cards to be both low POP and better sheltered from POP increases. They depict icons of sports with strong or growing popularity, or have an enduring team association.

    Of course, the above is strictly my take. They're solely my reasons for choosing the sports memorabilia path that I plan to have a lot of fun travelling on.




  • good thread but that book is dated....

    not all modern cards have decreased...

    simply look at the Pujols cards especially if you have a beckett on hand..its dramatic

    i was buying Pujols rookie year autos (sticker) in 2003 and 2004 for $200 a pop.....now you can tget one for under $600

    my 2 bowman chromes i got for $650 and $750..they are now over $3000 each

    Donruss signature could be had for $300 in 2004 now tough to see under $800....

    the Pujols numbered auto rookies (/25) which i was buying for $400 in 2005 are now over $1000 easily at auction.....

    DIDNT see the recession slow down Pujols rookie cards..

    PSS the recession is ending, dont you guys read the wall street journal?



  • << <i>good thread but that book is dated....

    not all modern cards have decreased...

    simply look at the Pujols cards especially if you have a beckett on hand..its dramatic

    i was buying Pujols rookie year autos (sticker) in 2003 and 2004 for $200 a pop.....now you can tget one for under $600

    my 2 bowman chromes i got for $650 and $750..they are now over $3000 each

    Donruss signature could be had for $300 in 2004 now tough to see under $800....

    the Pujols numbered auto rookies (/25) which i was buying for $400 in 2005 are now over $1000 easily at auction.....

    DIDNT see the recession slow down Pujols rookie cards..

    PSS the recession is ending, dont you guys read the wall street journal? >>




    If you bought Pujols early, then now or in the next two years tops is the time to sell. He is still in his prime and people still believe he could end up as one of the all timers. Once he hits his mid 30s, it is a down hill slide in production for most players outside of Bonds. He may end up breaking all the records, but in all of the history of baseball there have only been 3 men with 700 Hrs and one of the men got there by performance enhancements. The odds are against Pujols when you think about the number of baseball players throughout the history of the game and the miniscule number who reach 700 Hr.

    If Pujols ends up with only 600 HR his value will crash as he will be lumped in with all of the other excellent sluggers who were not named Hank Aaron or Babe Ruth.

  • itzagoneritzagoner Posts: 8,753 ✭✭


    << <i>.....one of the men got there by performance enhancements. >>



    yes, how unfair that they surrounded Ruth with all those other great hitters year after year, so they had to pitch to him. image
  • dzolotdzolot Posts: 174 ✭✭
    Here's an updated look at the coin index chart. It's called the PCGS 3000 Index:

    http://www.pcgs.com/coinindex/indexallgraph.chtml

    It's also interesting when you look at it for a ten year period:

    http://www.pcgs.com/coinindex/index10graph.chtml

    I'm sure this does not correlate perfectly with other collectibles (i.e. vintage cards) but i am sure there is some correlation. The biggest difference between the coin index and vintage card prices is likely the metal (specifially gold) impact coin prices.

    Looks like the index is up ~30% from it's low in Jan 1995. (as a point of reference, the S&P is up ~110% over the same period of time)

    I am curious to know where others think we are in the cycle (i.e. prices headed higher or lower, and why)...
    I have twelve Sports Cards videos on youtube w/ over 75,000 views in total!! Vintage cards like 1951 Mantle, 33 Goudey Ruth, T206 Cobb, etc (copy and paste link below):

    http://www.youtube.com/user/dzolot

    Thanks for watching. Hope you enjoyed!!

    - I would encourage all collectors to post a video of their collection - I have found it to be a very rewarding way to share my sports cards!!
  • akuracy503akuracy503 Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭
    image

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  • fkwfkw Posts: 1,766 ✭✭
    Dont kill the messenger .....

    "True" Baseball cards got sick in the late 1970's when the first price guide was issued and completely died in 1991.... when they removed the gum from the pack.

    Cards since then are really a collectors item (ie limited edition, like Beanie Babies, Franklin Mint, Collector Plates, etc.) or simply a collectors issue (ie TCMA), often first sold as a set.

    Per what the bible of our hobby has said for almost 80 years now..... (Jefferson Burdick's American Card Catalog, the book that named T206, R319, W517, M101-5, etc.)

    """"A "True Collector Card" was always issued FREE with a product or service of some kind.""""

    Nowadays the card/set is the product, horded in pristine condition with a predetermined value when issued.

    For something to retain good FUTURE value, it needed to have been basically valueless as issued and a high % played with or used and destroyed over time....... ie. vintage Halloween stuff, lunchboxes, Pez dispensers (Pez started eBay), stamps, coins, pins, bobbleheads, records, cards, postcards, comics, dolls, Hotwheels, Steiff bears, beer cans (one did sell for $19K), movie posters (one sold for over 1/2 million $$), autographs (use to be always be FREE), etc., etc..
    These vintage items became naturally rare over time, not artificially rare (ie 1/1 super glossy gold foil thingies).

    I dont see a big UP in value of modern stuff over the long haul

    Supply and Demand is key too. Newbies who turn Serious Collectors usually move away from modern and go to vintage. And Most Vintage collectors wont touch the stuff.

    PS. I havent bought a pack of cards since 1981 (when I was 15) the same year I traded for my first PreWar card.
  • kidzfundkidzfund Posts: 565 ✭✭✭
    It comes down to why you collect - for the enjoyment, for the completion of a set, getting an autograph of your favorite player, etc. For most of us, cards are a hobby, not a livelihood that we depend on to feed our family or fund our retirement. There are cycles but it really doesn't effect why I collect.

    Joe
  • dzolotdzolot Posts: 174 ✭✭
    Surprising comment coming from someone with the username kidzfund!!
    I have twelve Sports Cards videos on youtube w/ over 75,000 views in total!! Vintage cards like 1951 Mantle, 33 Goudey Ruth, T206 Cobb, etc (copy and paste link below):

    http://www.youtube.com/user/dzolot

    Thanks for watching. Hope you enjoyed!!

    - I would encourage all collectors to post a video of their collection - I have found it to be a very rewarding way to share my sports cards!!
  • kidzfundkidzfund Posts: 565 ✭✭✭
    It's still a college fund but I don't buy cards thinking it's a good investment. or comparing ROI. I just buy what I like.

    Joe
  • Thanks for taking the time to post this.
    Do You Collect image Baseball 1937,1965-94,2008-09?
    Or Regional Canadian Baseball Issues?
    Come be a contributor to the OPC Baseball Wiki. It's free and easy!
    OPeeChee.Wikispaces.Com
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