i'll give ya one good reason why graded/slabbed/authenticated is not only important to our hobby, it's imperative......FAKE JORDAN ROOKIE.
when i first got really into buying and flipping collections, just about anything was worth a try, particularly since so many people were just dumping entire accumulations, it was safe to assume that dollar for dollar spent, a handsome reward could be realized, either in cash or cards/collectibles.....but, it took a learning experience in dealing with a person who was a kid working in a card shop, someone so young, and yet SO keen on what to know about the hobby....i sold him FAKE JORDAN ROOKIE without knowing that it was because at that point in time i still trusted everyone, it's a hobby right? supposed to be FUN.
so what if some hustlers like me are dredging up people's stuff and repopulating the market with it, as long as it's legit.
well, my guy called me up the next day and told me i had sold him FAKE JORDAN ROOKIE and i needed to come and get it back and refund the cash to him....he wasn't upset, at least not with me, but he was disappointed that the hobby was being plagued by bad material and the Jordan card was a perfect example of why something needed to be done, something to help strengthen the position of the new money coming into the hobby being spent by wealthy speculators.
I think the OP meant when he said "infinite" was that people are "creating" these high end vintage cards. This has been a view held by a lot of the older collectors of pre war material. Basically the idea is that they never saw NM to Mint quality T cards and E cards in any kind of quantity until after PSA and SGC started grading. Where did all of these come from was the question? To some the answer is they were created by trimming, soaking, replacing backs, cutting off of sheets etc.
This topic was covered by Davallio a couple of years ago I believe and so nothing new to see here.
If PSA/SGC didnt exist Ebay wouldn't be the worlds largest card show, auction houses never would have taken off (may of been a good thing) and collectors couldn't buy virtually sight unseen cards from someone halfway around the world.
Card collecting grew thanks to PSA/SGC not shrank. Older collectors are griping about the increased competition for cards and dealers are mad because they couldn't control pricing and condition anymore.
Currently completing the following registry sets: Cardinal HOF's, 1961 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1972 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1980 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, Bill Mazeroski Master & Basic Sets, Roberto Clemente Master & Basic Sets, Willie Stargell Master & Basic Sets and Terry Bradshaw Basic Set
Wow, I'm surprised at the one-sidedness of the opinions here. Well, I guess I shouldn't be given this is a graded card forum.
I agree that TPG's have added much value to the industry. But I think we have blinders on if we fail to see a potential downside slide. The disease of low pops being falling knives in stock term parlance has now spread to post 50's vintage commons in general. As pops go up, supply increases while demand has been stagnant except for issues that are hot or have registry competition. Put aside the hot sets or issues for a moment and riddle me this, Batmen: aside from the obvious low pops, tell me what 1960's commons, for example, are worth slabbing these days in PSA 8. Let's pick a year there, any year, oh, 1963. You buy a common for Beckett price, $4 or $5. You get it slabbed for another $5 (probably a minimum cost ignoring shipping). It returns as a PSA 8. Great you say, it's $22 in the SMR. Problem is, that card is selling for $10-$15 on Ebay already slabbed all day long. And this is if the card returns in an 8 holder. If it's a PSA 7, you've thrown away money because no one wants 7's commons anymore, not even in many 50's issues.
And then there's demographics. The baby boomers who have invested the most in cards over the years are going to die eventually. Will they be replaced in equal numbers by the following generation? Again, supply and demand. I think there's a reasonable probability that fewer collectors are in the market 10-20 years from now.
I'm generally one of the most optimistic folks around when it comes to the hobby but to think there's not a downside is just foolhardy.
Ron Burgundy
Buying Vintage, all sports. Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
However,the slab industry has taken awayany skill /knowledge from the hobby,and hasinstead created a milieu of "mine is biggerthan yours"!!
Reading this, I'm wondering whether his so-called "sour grapes" is spoken from the angle of a card collector and its competitive aspects as opposed to that of a seller's angle? In other words, perhaps his beef is that someone with little knowledge of the hobby, but deeper pockets than his, can today, with TPG, build a collection that would bury his in terms of quality? Of course, I'm assuming he is (or was) a card collector, but I don't think it's a bad assumption given that he seems to have more than a passing knowledge of card grading.
<< <i>I'm generally one of the most optimistic folks around when it comes to the hobby but to think there's not a downside is just foolhardy. >>
I definitely agree with you when it comes to commons. Of course paying a huge sum premium for an unexciting sports player from 50 years ago doesn't sound like the best of ideas on paper.
I think the strength of the grading market lies in it's original reason. Security. I probably go back to this because I am experienced in Risk Management. With all the fraudulent practices in existense like trimming, recoloring, etc. I would never put my money down on $250+ raw card on ebay. The PSA plastic on the outside of the card however, gives me the warm fuzzy feeling to trust the card and if I like it's appearance I go for it. I've always heard buy the card not the grade.... but I think to a degree you buy the card and the grade. You buy the card that meets your eye appeal and by grade, you are buying the verification of it's unaltered authenticity, including an assessment of the corners/creasing/coloration.
There are clearly bad money spots to get caught in grading and I think Ron did great to point those out. The favorite one I have as an example is one I'd like... a PSA 10 1986 Topps Nolan Ryan. Look how far that puppy has fallen in a year and a half.
Buying low pop is generally a losing venture... selling low pop is a winning deal. All this because we know low pop isn't often forever (unlike the true low pop like T206 Honus Wagner).
I predict a day where one of the second tier, but fairly reputable, grading companies like GAI or the company whose name slips my mind but uses the 100 point scale- you typically see vintage stuff in their slabs- land a contract with Topps or UpperDeck to grade their cards right off of the press at the factory. Not for every brand but for either their high end line, their rookie product, or both.
Just a side note to waxpack- many in the hobby already see PSA as number 2.
My only gripe with the grading system is how it's done. If I owned a grading company, each and every card would be graded by three people and the average of the three grades would be the end-grade. One grader leaves too much to opinion.
Here's my take on graded vs. raw. I love graded cards.
A little history of myself. Growing up I loved watching and playing sports, but never collected cards. In 1986 we moved to a new neighborhood and the kids there were sports nuts. They collected every sports card that came out and so I went along with them. New kid in the neighborhood wanting to fit in and never really liked doing it. Then came high school and college and couldn't care less about cards, but then something happened my last year in college. I meet a new friend through my girlfriend (now wife) and he was into cards so much that he talked about them all the time. So I started thinking what a great way to reconnect with my love of sports from the past.
I went on to collecting raw sets. Found some places online and bought sets that they described as mint. At the time I didn't know about card grading. Then one day was online looking around and found a site that sold graded cards, so I decided to take a look at my raw sets and see how they compared. It wasn't pretty. Cards that were so oc that I don't think an oc qual would do it justice. Corners that were so rounded it looked like a nascar track.
I vowed from that day forward that I would never buy another raw card, and I haven't. I feel that graded cards are the way to go, because sellers can't say that the cards they have are mint when all they really have is vg cards. Also TPG do not have a vested interest in the cards they are grading.
I also agree with the other posters that say buy your cards because you love collecting.
<< <i>My only gripe with the grading system is how it's done. If I owned a grading company, each and every card would be graded by three people and the average of the three grades would be the end-grade. One grader leaves too much to opinion. >>
Don't they all claim that more than one set of eyes looks at each card now?
---------------------- Working on the following: 1970 Baseball PSA, 1970-1976 Raw, World Series Subsets PSA, 1969 Expansion Teams PSA, Fleer World Series Sets, Texas Rangers Topps Run 1972-1989 ----------------------
Successful deals to date: thedudeabides,gameusedhoop,golfcollector,tigerdean,treetop,bkritz, CapeMOGuy,WeekendHacker,jeff8877,backbidder,Salinas,milbroco,bbuckner22,VitoCo1972,ddfamf,gemint,K,fatty macs,waltersobchak,dboneesq
<< <i>My only gripe with the grading system is how it's done. If I owned a grading company, each and every card would be graded by three people and the average of the three grades would be the end-grade. One grader leaves too much to opinion. >>
only problem I see there is from a business prospective, by having each card reviewed by 3 graders you are essentially tripling the number of man hours required to grade product.
Not to mention the potential inherit issues, like what to do if 2 graders grade a card a 9 and the other thinks he sees a micro-wrinkle and gives it a 5. In my mind the card is likely either a 9 or a 5.. not a 7.67
<< <i>But if you had some kind of 'index fund' for sports cards it would have been steadily falling for 20 years now. >>
I think this is a great idea! Who says one couldn't be created?
How about it, Joe? Why not track an "SMR index" each month? Each sport, non-sport, pre-war, etc. >>
PSA did do this for a few years in the late 90's when card values were exploding. It was printed in the SMR ever month and every month the value of the fund increased. Then when the economy tanked and card values took a hit they stopped printing it.
<< <i> Both sports cards and real estate have proven to be pretty sound when compared to the S&P. >>
There's no way this is true. If you data mine and pick certain years/players after their cards have already appreciated, then yes. But if you had some kind of 'index fund' for sports cards it would have been steadily falling for 20 years now.
I 'think' the S&P has averaged about 10% growth a year for the last twenty years, and I cannot believe that sports cards have kept up with that. It's very easy to look at something like a PSA 8 '52 Mantle and say 'hey, check that out- this card has gone up 300% in the last 10 years', but we have to look at ALL sportscards, and even if you restrict that to vintage you see that the vast, vast majority of cards have barely kept up with inflation. In fact, the only thing I'm sure has really climbed is high grade vintage*. Everything else, including mid-grade vintage, has shown virtually no growth (in real terms).
* I don't know about pre-war, so this applies only to 1952-present. >>
Boo:
My apologies if my post suggested that ANY sports cards would be sound compared to the S&P. I will contend that a well managed sports card portfolio featuring blue chips has and will continue to produce positive returns.
There is very little that I've purchased over the past 10 years that I've seen a loss on (some have been stagnant, however). But then again, I've been buying higher grade vintage football, have nearly completed the 1948 Leaf Football Master Set and have focused on above average for the grade (sharp and well centered) rookie and/or limited cards of the greats of baseball, basketball and hockey in addition to the "undervalued" football cards that I've been buying a little less selectively.
I also have several private investors for whom I've been managing portfolios for the past 5-8 years. All have realized double digit increases annually using available market pricing. In fact, one just cashed out early this past summer. His total investment was just over $8K. After he deducted ALL of his selling expenses (he sold most on eBay and a few items through Memory Lane) and my management expenses, he realized a net profit of just under $3500 on a portfolio I managed for just nearly 4 years. >>
I don't doubt any of this, Scott. You seem like an uncommonly savvy collector/investor. As far as cards go, my feeling is that high profile cards in high grades will at least hold their value, since I think the demand for them amongst the well heeled will always remain firm.
My pet peeve-- and again, this is not directed to you, but more towards a set of 'hobby assumptions' that I seem to run into frequently-- is this notion that anything printed pre-65 is money in the bank, and the rest of it is trash. The fact is this: TPG's exploited a latent demand for cards in unusually good condition. But if someone was putting together a 'vintage index' which included everything, including off-grade HOFers and what not, that index would have been essentially stagnant for the last 25 years. To the best of my knowledge there has been NO uptick in stuff like EX-MT '63 Mays' and Aarons since the mid-1980's, and I don't want anyone here to put up a copy of a price guide from 1984 in an effort to prove me wrong, since a) I'm talking about real terms, not nominal, and b) price guides have never reflected actual market value.
For people who have no informational advantage over the average collector, cards are not a good place to put one's money. There are basically no exceptions to that. Also, virtually everyone who thinks they have an informational advantage does not.
<< <i>For people who have no informational advantage over the average collector, cards are not a good place to put one's money. There are basically no exceptions to that. Also, virtually everyone who thinks they have an informational advantage does not. >>
Isn't this true of any investment vehicle? The uninformed will follow the path of least resistance and usually end up on the negative side in such endeavors.
And don't worry, Boo, I wasn't taking your comments as a slight and I realize that I have a little more insight than most. Actually, it isn't really insight as much as it is foresight and a well managed thought process that is readily willing and able to jettison and replace items that no longer fit the profile of what I consider "investment" worthy.
<< <i> Isn't this true of any investment vehicle? >>
Yep, it's called the efficient market hypothesis. It assumes that all information is readily available to all investors. >>
For those who might be interested, here a link to a great blog where the EMH is analyzed. The distinction between informational and allocative efficiency is an important one, if only because it helps explain the rise of bubbles (like what we saw in the graded card market 10 years ago).
To the best of my knowledge there has been NO uptick in stuff like EX-MT '63 Mays' and Aarons since the mid-1980's
Probably not. As pure investments, they wouldn't pass. The advantage with those cards is that if bought below market their profit can be easily predicted. They're not going to go down. Also, it's easier to get above market prices (for sellers who are reasonably patient) because novice collectors shop for them.
Not to get off the investment talk - because I find it compelling.
There's an area that the OP is alluding to that 'is' a major problem - fakes and alterations.
Do "we" as collectors do enough to educate and arm ourselves with the ability to weed out fakes and alterations on our own?
I say - we do.
I remember there was an issue which PSA slabbed and it was pointed out on this forum the fact that it was a "reprint" - can't remember the card right now.
Can we do better? Most definitely - many enjoy buying raw - sometimes for the fun and enjoyment of submitting for grading - a challenge of sorts.
I guess what I'm saying is that it might not be a bad idea if we review these concepts from time to time.
When someone wrote - this is old news?
It's NEVER old news - anyone who's in a profession where one "practices" understands the importance of the review of knowledge and skills.
<< <i>"...many in the hobby already see PSA as number 2...."
//////////////////////////////
The only metric that counts is units graded.
If PSA grades 100K per month, the new #1 would have to beat that number. >>
Depends how one define #1. I'd say in the sense that we are talking, it wouldn't be based on units graded (i.e. volume), but rather the value defined by the holder in which it resides (PSA 7 vs SGC 7 vs GAI 7). IMO, #1 is not based on quantity, but quality, but really it is semantics at this point.
I think card grading has been a huge boon to the hobby. I know I would not have come back if not for it. The fact that I can buy a card sight unseen on the internet and 99% likely be happy with the card I receive is proof of that. I used to buy from mail order catalogs in the early 80's and that was a disaster, same goes for card shows.
Now as far as cards as an investment, I do feel there is a big bubble in the value of many graded cards. I pretty much think that nearly all psa 7-8's 50-70's cards do not really have much room to go up and are more likely to drop. Heck I have nearly all Roberto Clementes in PSA 8-9 and they are all nearly down 10-20% on vcp and I really think they could drop more. I think commons from this period are a time bomb waiting to go off and any one investing in these is going to be in trouble in the future, buying low pops is playing with fire. IMO Years like 1975 minis I dont see any way they can go up over the next 10 years as more and more get graded.
This is not to say I think all cards in this time frame are going down, I really think the PSA 4-6 superstar market is healthy, it has never really gone up and its not really dropped and I think over time it will keep creeping up. I also think demand for HOF rookies will stay strong, esp for the 50's players. Combine the two and I think rookie cards like Clemente, Aaron, Mays, Koufax, etc in PSA 4-6 are great buys. I also like most scarce regional issue like Kahns, etc in mid grade.
I am heavy into pre ww2 vintage and I am happy with what it has done but its not a given that all issue will increase. I collect exhibits and one collector left the market and just that has driven down prices on many of them. That said rare cobbs, wagners, etc are as good as they get and wish i had more of them.
<< <i>The next generation of collectors? It's right here. I would say most of you are in your mid to late 30's, continuing to boost your discretionary income, with many years of collecting ahead of you.
Are the kids today into cards like previous generations? Probably not, but that doesn't mean they won't move into collecting later. It seems virtually everyone on the boards stopped collecting at some point in their teen years and picked it up again later. Today's kids will also have the advantage of collecting on line, opening up a whole new world of cards we never saw at local shows when we were kids. >>
Comments
when i first got really into buying and flipping collections, just about anything was worth a try, particularly since so many people were just dumping entire accumulations, it was safe to assume that dollar for dollar spent, a handsome reward could be realized, either in cash or cards/collectibles.....but, it took a learning experience in dealing with a person who was a kid working in a card shop, someone so young, and yet SO keen on what to know about the hobby....i sold him FAKE JORDAN ROOKIE without knowing that it was because at that point in time i still trusted everyone, it's a hobby right? supposed to be FUN.
so what if some hustlers like me are dredging up people's stuff and repopulating the market with it, as long as it's legit.
well, my guy called me up the next day and told me i had sold him FAKE JORDAN ROOKIE and i needed to come and get it back and refund the cash to him....he wasn't upset, at least not with me, but he was disappointed that the hobby was being plagued by bad material and the Jordan card was a perfect example of why something needed to be done, something to help strengthen the position of the new money coming into the hobby being spent by wealthy speculators.
the year was 1991.
This topic was covered by Davallio a couple of years ago I believe and so nothing new to see here.
If PSA/SGC didnt exist Ebay wouldn't be the worlds largest card show, auction houses never would have taken off (may of been a good thing) and collectors couldn't buy virtually sight unseen cards from someone halfway around the world.
Card collecting grew thanks to PSA/SGC not shrank. Older collectors are griping about the increased competition for cards and dealers are mad because they couldn't control pricing and condition anymore.
I agree that TPG's have added much value to the industry. But I think we have blinders on if we fail to see a potential downside slide. The disease of low pops being falling knives in stock term parlance has now spread to post 50's vintage commons in general. As pops go up, supply increases while demand has been stagnant except for issues that are hot or have registry competition. Put aside the hot sets or issues for a moment and riddle me this, Batmen: aside from the obvious low pops, tell me what 1960's commons, for example, are worth slabbing these days in PSA 8. Let's pick a year there, any year, oh, 1963. You buy a common for Beckett price, $4 or $5. You get it slabbed for another $5 (probably a minimum cost ignoring shipping). It returns as a PSA 8. Great you say, it's $22 in the SMR. Problem is, that card is selling for $10-$15 on Ebay already slabbed all day long. And this is if the card returns in an 8 holder. If it's a PSA 7, you've thrown away money because no one wants 7's commons anymore, not even in many 50's issues.
And then there's demographics. The baby boomers who have invested the most in cards over the years are going to die eventually. Will they be replaced in equal numbers by the following generation? Again, supply and demand. I think there's a reasonable probability that fewer collectors are in the market 10-20 years from now.
I'm generally one of the most optimistic folks around when it comes to the hobby but to think there's not a downside is just foolhardy.
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
Reading this, I'm wondering whether his so-called "sour grapes" is spoken from the angle of a card collector and its competitive aspects as opposed to that of a seller's angle? In other words, perhaps his beef is that someone with little knowledge of the hobby, but deeper pockets than his, can today, with TPG, build a collection that would bury his in terms of quality? Of course, I'm assuming he is (or was) a card collector, but I don't think it's a bad assumption given that he seems to have more than a passing knowledge of card grading.
<< <i>I'm generally one of the most optimistic folks around when it comes to the hobby but to think there's not a downside is just foolhardy. >>
I definitely agree with you when it comes to commons. Of course paying a huge sum premium for an unexciting sports player from 50 years ago doesn't sound like the best of ideas on paper.
I think the strength of the grading market lies in it's original reason. Security. I probably go back to this because I am experienced in Risk Management. With all the fraudulent practices in existense like trimming, recoloring, etc. I would never put my money down on $250+ raw card on ebay. The PSA plastic on the outside of the card however, gives me the warm fuzzy feeling to trust the card and if I like it's appearance I go for it. I've always heard buy the card not the grade.... but I think to a degree you buy the card and the grade. You buy the card that meets your eye appeal and by grade, you are buying the verification of it's unaltered authenticity, including an assessment of the corners/creasing/coloration.
There are clearly bad money spots to get caught in grading and I think Ron did great to point those out. The favorite one I have as an example is one I'd like... a PSA 10 1986 Topps Nolan Ryan. Look how far that puppy has fallen in a year and a half.
Buying low pop is generally a losing venture... selling low pop is a winning deal. All this because we know low pop isn't often forever (unlike the true low pop like T206 Honus Wagner).
Just a side note to waxpack- many in the hobby already see PSA as number 2.
Good morning,
Here's my take on graded vs. raw. I love graded cards.
A little history of myself. Growing up I loved watching and playing sports, but never collected cards. In 1986 we moved to a new neighborhood and the kids there were sports nuts. They collected every sports card that came out and so I went along with them. New kid in the neighborhood wanting to fit in and never really liked doing it. Then came high school and college and couldn't care less about cards, but then something happened my last year in college. I meet a new friend through my girlfriend (now wife) and he was into cards so much that he talked about them all the time. So I started thinking what a great way to reconnect with my love of sports from the past.
I went on to collecting raw sets. Found some places online and bought sets that they described as mint. At the time I didn't know about card grading. Then one day was online looking around and found a site that sold graded cards, so I decided to take a look at my raw sets and see how they compared. It wasn't pretty. Cards that were so oc that I don't think an oc qual would do it justice. Corners that were so rounded it looked like a nascar track.
I vowed from that day forward that I would never buy another raw card, and I haven't. I feel that graded cards are the way to go, because sellers can't say that the cards they have are mint when all they really have is vg cards. Also TPG do not have a vested interest in the cards they are grading.
I also agree with the other posters that say buy your cards because you love collecting.
<< <i>My only gripe with the grading system is how it's done. If I owned a grading company, each and every card would be graded by three people and the average of the three grades would be the end-grade. One grader leaves too much to opinion. >>
Don't they all claim that more than one set of eyes looks at each card now?
Working on the following: 1970 Baseball PSA, 1970-1976 Raw, World Series Subsets PSA, 1969 Expansion Teams PSA, Fleer World Series Sets, Texas Rangers Topps Run 1972-1989
----------------------
Successful deals to date: thedudeabides,gameusedhoop,golfcollector,tigerdean,treetop,bkritz, CapeMOGuy,WeekendHacker,jeff8877,backbidder,Salinas,milbroco,bbuckner22,VitoCo1972,ddfamf,gemint,K,fatty macs,waltersobchak,dboneesq
<< <i>My only gripe with the grading system is how it's done. If I owned a grading company, each and every card would be graded by three people and the average of the three grades would be the end-grade. One grader leaves too much to opinion. >>
only problem I see there is from a business prospective, by having each card reviewed by 3 graders you are essentially tripling the number of man hours required to grade product.
Not to mention the potential inherit issues, like what to do if 2 graders grade a card a 9 and the other thinks he sees a micro-wrinkle and gives it a 5. In my mind the card is likely either a 9 or a 5.. not a 7.67
<< <i>
<< <i>But if you had some kind of 'index fund' for sports cards it would have been steadily falling for 20 years now. >>
I think this is a great idea! Who says one couldn't be created?
How about it, Joe? Why not track an "SMR index" each month? Each sport, non-sport, pre-war, etc. >>
PSA did do this for a few years in the late 90's when card values were exploding. It was printed in the SMR ever month and every month the value of the fund increased. Then when the economy tanked and card values took a hit they stopped printing it.
"...many in the hobby already see PSA as number 2...."
//////////////////////////////
The only metric that counts is units graded.
If PSA grades 100K per month, the new #1 would have
to beat that number.
<< <i>This topic was covered by Davallio a couple of years ago I believe and so nothing new to see here >>
Post of the decade!
First, my point was not to dredge up an old topic, as such, but rather to see if anyone read anything into the TONE of the writter.
That's the part that's interesting - there's such a difference between illuminating and pontificating IMO.
Last - what's the point of the comment?
I would be tempted to infer that it should NEVER be brought up again since it was talked about before?
Better, I should read the ENDLESS threads on how ebay blows, the grader blows, paypal blows, life blows?
Nothing new here?
Sure there is - there's newcomers here - people hungry for more insight and knowledge. But, thanx for the excellent charactization and commentary.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i> Both sports cards and real estate have proven to be pretty sound when compared to the S&P. >>
There's no way this is true. If you data mine and pick certain years/players after their cards have already appreciated, then yes. But if you had some kind of 'index fund' for sports cards it would have been steadily falling for 20 years now.
I 'think' the S&P has averaged about 10% growth a year for the last twenty years, and I cannot believe that sports cards have kept up with that. It's very easy to look at something like a PSA 8 '52 Mantle and say 'hey, check that out- this card has gone up 300% in the last 10 years', but we have to look at ALL sportscards, and even if you restrict that to vintage you see that the vast, vast majority of cards have barely kept up with inflation. In fact, the only thing I'm sure has really climbed is high grade vintage*. Everything else, including mid-grade vintage, has shown virtually no growth (in real terms).
* I don't know about pre-war, so this applies only to 1952-present. >>
Boo:
My apologies if my post suggested that ANY sports cards would be sound compared to the S&P. I will contend that a well managed sports card portfolio featuring blue chips has and will continue to produce positive returns.
There is very little that I've purchased over the past 10 years that I've seen a loss on (some have been stagnant, however). But then again, I've been buying higher grade vintage football, have nearly completed the 1948 Leaf Football Master Set and have focused on above average for the grade (sharp and well centered) rookie and/or limited cards of the greats of baseball, basketball and hockey in addition to the "undervalued" football cards that I've been buying a little less selectively.
I also have several private investors for whom I've been managing portfolios for the past 5-8 years. All have realized double digit increases annually using available market pricing. In fact, one just cashed out early this past summer. His total investment was just over $8K. After he deducted ALL of his selling expenses (he sold most on eBay and a few items through Memory Lane) and my management expenses, he realized a net profit of just under $3500 on a portfolio I managed for just nearly 4 years. >>
I don't doubt any of this, Scott. You seem like an uncommonly savvy collector/investor. As far as cards go, my feeling is that high profile cards in high grades will at least hold their value, since I think the demand for them amongst the well heeled will always remain firm.
My pet peeve-- and again, this is not directed to you, but more towards a set of 'hobby assumptions' that I seem to run into frequently-- is this notion that anything printed pre-65 is money in the bank, and the rest of it is trash. The fact is this: TPG's exploited a latent demand for cards in unusually good condition. But if someone was putting together a 'vintage index' which included everything, including off-grade HOFers and what not, that index would have been essentially stagnant for the last 25 years. To the best of my knowledge there has been NO uptick in stuff like EX-MT '63 Mays' and Aarons since the mid-1980's, and I don't want anyone here to put up a copy of a price guide from 1984 in an effort to prove me wrong, since a) I'm talking about real terms, not nominal, and b) price guides have never reflected actual market value.
For people who have no informational advantage over the average collector, cards are not a good place to put one's money. There are basically no exceptions to that. Also, virtually everyone who thinks they have an informational advantage does not.
<< <i>"...many in the hobby already see PSA as number 2...."
//////////////////////////////
The only metric that counts is units graded.
If PSA grades 100K per month, the new #1 would have
to beat that number. >>
You could build a fair argument that the total value of cards graded in a given time frame is a superior metric to units graded.
<< <i>For people who have no informational advantage over the average collector, cards are not a good place to put one's money. There are basically no exceptions to that. Also, virtually everyone who thinks they have an informational advantage does not. >>
Isn't this true of any investment vehicle? The uninformed will follow the path of least resistance and usually end up on the negative side in such endeavors.
And don't worry, Boo, I wasn't taking your comments as a slight and I realize that I have a little more insight than most. Actually, it isn't really insight as much as it is foresight and a well managed thought process that is readily willing and able to jettison and replace items that no longer fit the profile of what I consider "investment" worthy.
<< <i>
Isn't this true of any investment vehicle? >>
Yep, it's called the efficient market hypothesis. It assumes that all information is readily available to all investors.
<< <i>
<< <i>
Isn't this true of any investment vehicle? >>
Yep, it's called the efficient market hypothesis. It assumes that all information is readily available to all investors. >>
For those who might be interested, here a link to a great blog where the EMH is analyzed. The distinction between informational and allocative efficiency is an important one, if only because it helps explain the rise of bubbles (like what we saw in the graded card market 10 years ago).
Scroll down to 'The Invincible Markets Hypothesis"
Probably not. As pure investments, they wouldn't pass. The advantage with those cards is that if bought below market their profit can be easily predicted. They're not going to go down. Also, it's easier to get above market prices (for sellers who are reasonably patient) because novice collectors shop for them.
There's an area that the OP is alluding to that 'is' a major problem - fakes and alterations.
Do "we" as collectors do enough to educate and arm ourselves with the ability to weed out fakes and alterations on our own?
I say - we do.
I remember there was an issue which PSA slabbed and it was pointed out on this forum the fact that it was a "reprint" - can't remember the card right now.
Can we do better? Most definitely - many enjoy buying raw - sometimes for the fun and enjoyment of submitting for grading - a challenge of sorts.
I guess what I'm saying is that it might not be a bad idea if we review these concepts from time to time.
When someone wrote - this is old news?
It's NEVER old news - anyone who's in a profession where one "practices" understands the importance of the review of knowledge and skills.
Good discussion - one I've immensely enjoyed.
Just wanted to say hi to Mike.
Hello
Steve
<< <i>I have nothing really to add as everything has been said.
Just wanted to say hi to Mike.
Hello
Steve >>
Hi Steve
PM sent.
<< <i>"...many in the hobby already see PSA as number 2...."
//////////////////////////////
The only metric that counts is units graded.
If PSA grades 100K per month, the new #1 would have
to beat that number. >>
Depends how one define #1. I'd say in the sense that we are talking, it wouldn't be based on units graded (i.e. volume), but rather the value defined by the holder in which it resides (PSA 7 vs SGC 7 vs GAI 7). IMO, #1 is not based on quantity, but quality, but really it is semantics at this point.
"Common sense is the best distributed commodity in the world, for every man is convinced that he is well supplied with it"
I think card grading has been a huge boon to the hobby. I know I would not have come back if not for it. The fact that I can buy a card sight unseen on the internet and 99% likely be happy with the card I receive is proof of that. I used to buy from mail order catalogs in the early 80's and that was a disaster, same goes for card shows.
Now as far as cards as an investment, I do feel there is a big bubble in the value of many graded cards. I pretty much think that nearly all psa 7-8's 50-70's cards do not really have much room to go up and are more likely to drop. Heck I have nearly all Roberto Clementes in PSA 8-9 and they are all nearly down 10-20% on vcp and I really think they could drop more. I think commons from this period are a time bomb waiting to go off and any one investing in these is going to be in trouble in the future, buying low pops is playing with fire. IMO Years like 1975 minis I dont see any way they can go up over the next 10 years as more and more get graded.
This is not to say I think all cards in this time frame are going down, I really think the PSA 4-6 superstar market is healthy, it has never really gone up and its not really dropped and I think over time it will keep creeping up. I also think demand for HOF rookies will stay strong, esp for the 50's players. Combine the two and I think rookie cards like Clemente, Aaron, Mays, Koufax, etc in PSA 4-6 are great buys. I also like most scarce regional issue like Kahns, etc in mid grade.
I am heavy into pre ww2 vintage and I am happy with what it has done but its not a given that all issue will increase. I collect exhibits and one collector left the market and just that has driven down prices on many of them. That said rare cobbs, wagners, etc are as good as they get and wish i had more of them.
<< <i>times change, if you don't evolve you'll be extinct. Someone else is buying his cards and grading them.
or not buying them, since most likely he is asking Mint "beckett" prices for EX cards. >>
Was this written in 1990? Or was it a card shop owner who still quotes Beckett high book on Junk Wax?
Ryan
1951 Topps Red backs psa 8 only!
1960 Golden Press Presidential set Psa 8 's - Psa 9's
1961 Golden Press psa 9's
1976 Topps baseball psa 9 Stars
1980 Kelloggs baseball Psa 9's - Psa 10's
1988-1989 Fleer Basketball psa 9's
1988-1989 Fleer Stickers psa 9's
1989-1990 Fleer Basketball psa 10's
1992 Coca-Cola Donruss Nolan Ryan 1-26 Psa 10 only Gpa 9.80++ E-mail Newyork00007@aol.com
<< <i>The next generation of collectors? It's right here. I would say most of you are in your mid to late 30's, continuing to boost your discretionary income, with many years of collecting ahead of you.
Are the kids today into cards like previous generations? Probably not, but that doesn't mean they won't move into collecting later. It seems virtually everyone on the boards stopped collecting at some point in their teen years and picked it up again later. Today's kids will also have the advantage of collecting on line, opening up a whole new world of cards we never saw at local shows when we were kids. >>
I am here and 19 years old!
1951 Topps Red backs psa 8 only!
1960 Golden Press Presidential set Psa 8 's - Psa 9's
1961 Golden Press psa 9's
1976 Topps baseball psa 9 Stars
1980 Kelloggs baseball Psa 9's - Psa 10's
1988-1989 Fleer Basketball psa 9's
1988-1989 Fleer Stickers psa 9's
1989-1990 Fleer Basketball psa 10's
1992 Coca-Cola Donruss Nolan Ryan 1-26 Psa 10 only Gpa 9.80++ E-mail Newyork00007@aol.com
"Molon Labe"