The rant of a non-believer in graded - what do you think?
Stone193
Posts: 24,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
I would like your input on this post - it was OT to my thread/post - a bit of a hijack if you will - this is a baseball board discussion forum...
What's your impression? I'll reserve mine till after people read it.
Post #1:
Guys
Not attempting to get on a tangent but
I remember "in the old days" pre slabbing
(1970 -1990's) when acquring cards took some
skill in discerning what was a 7 vs a 9.
However,the slab industry has taken away
any skill /knowledge from the hobby,and has
instead created a milieu of "mine is bigger
than yours"!!. It has become an unfortunate
battle to acquire the best and highest graded
set in the "official registry".
I feel sorry for the card collectors who
base their collection on these grading company
reports ,and leave it to their jaundiced eyes
to ascertain the value,like reading the
Wall Street Journal.
I never believed that the card collectors
would defer to the so called grading experts
who seem to have their share of mistakes.
In fact, another "watergate" with the grading
companies appears to be in the winds with
trimmed ,skinned, and doctored cards.
Post #2:
I guess you never know you are in an asset
bubble till it bursts. We all can recall
the internet,credit, and real estate bubbles.
With the infinite supply of baseball cards,
you name the series . Whether it is Old Judge
or T206 or Goudeys , the holy grail of slabbing
with the next shoe to drop(expose of shill
bidding ,grading scams,bogus population reports),
the manipulated inflated prices of all these
cards will eventually be added to the list
of tulips in Holland in 1637.
Enjoy them while you can,just do not be the
last guy out the door !!!!
What's your impression? I'll reserve mine till after people read it.
Post #1:
Guys
Not attempting to get on a tangent but
I remember "in the old days" pre slabbing
(1970 -1990's) when acquring cards took some
skill in discerning what was a 7 vs a 9.
However,the slab industry has taken away
any skill /knowledge from the hobby,and has
instead created a milieu of "mine is bigger
than yours"!!. It has become an unfortunate
battle to acquire the best and highest graded
set in the "official registry".
I feel sorry for the card collectors who
base their collection on these grading company
reports ,and leave it to their jaundiced eyes
to ascertain the value,like reading the
Wall Street Journal.
I never believed that the card collectors
would defer to the so called grading experts
who seem to have their share of mistakes.
In fact, another "watergate" with the grading
companies appears to be in the winds with
trimmed ,skinned, and doctored cards.
Post #2:
I guess you never know you are in an asset
bubble till it bursts. We all can recall
the internet,credit, and real estate bubbles.
With the infinite supply of baseball cards,
you name the series . Whether it is Old Judge
or T206 or Goudeys , the holy grail of slabbing
with the next shoe to drop(expose of shill
bidding ,grading scams,bogus population reports),
the manipulated inflated prices of all these
cards will eventually be added to the list
of tulips in Holland in 1637.
Enjoy them while you can,just do not be the
last guy out the door !!!!
Mike
0
Comments
times change, if you don't evolve you'll be extinct. Someone else is buying his cards and grading them.
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
or not buying them, since most likely he is asking Mint "beckett" prices for EX cards.
I myself have been collecting since the 1983. I think grading has helped BUT I also think it has hurt. I think the true collector is the guy that does NOT care if is stuff is graded. He's a collector not a what's my stuff worth. I have a cousin that's been collecting since the 1970's. He has unopened wax from all 4 sports and WILL NOT send anything for grading Including 86 Fleer Basketball that he bought for $12.00 a box. I trust his views more than alot of big time dealers.
On the down side I keep telling him that if he ever sells, he will have to get his stuff graded to get the big bucks.
or not buying them, since most likely he is asking Mint "beckett" prices for EX cards.
Bob
email bcmiller7@comcast.net
Post #2. Some valid concerns
http://www.unisquare.com/store/brick/
Ralph
I believe you are right; but I hope you are wrong. Where are the new collectors going to come from? My son and his friends are huge into sports; but they don't care about cards. I know very few people who collect cards.
To me this rant sounds like the bitter, unthinking schlub who shows up to the local shows month after month with the same stash of vg-ex crap priced at nr-mt-mt prices and complains when he can't make a sale. He doesn't seem to realize that on a basic level professional grading, while not perfect, nonetheless takes out a sizable portion of altered, overly graded and fake cards that buyers had been getting burned on for years. (Trust me, I've had my own experiences!) Yes, there are still issues to be dealt with including shill bidding and card switching (e.g. WIWAG) but I think that card collectors on the whole have been in the game long enough to know that crap abounds. The difference is we have forums like this to expose frauds and thieves.
Keep in mind - this is a Baseball BOARD Forum - so the guy may not even collect cards.
Both sports cards and real estate have proven to be pretty sound when compared to the S&P. In fact, the real estate "bubble" is a poor example for anyone to cite as since the Depression, there has not been a single year that could be selected where real estate was not more valuable 10 years later. Pick a height in the market and 10 years later, prices were higher. Once just needs to be able to endure the valleys to come out on top on the other side.
Grading will suffer when the subject is a mass marketed and readily available issue. In the modern market, as with most collectibles, the initial offerings will typically sell for the most and steadily decline to a "true" market price once supply meets demand. Player performance is usually the only factor that will effect upward or downward trends on modern material.
The vintage market is a much more stable vehicle, albeit, low pop items with "artificial" prices will tend to be more volatile than the standard blue chip items.
In any respect, there are probably far more non-believers than there are those that are active in the graded market and this belief is held by far more people than we care to imagine. Luckily, there are enough people involved in the graded market to sustain it and see it through the ebbs of a poor economy. Education, judicious purchasing and balancing of one's collection (portfolio) are a great tools to hedge against most any sluggish period.
<< <i>Post #1. Sour grapes
Post #2. Some valid concerns >>
///////////////////////////////////
Could likely be so.
It is always important not to dismiss valid info simply
because it is delivered by a self-interested messenger.
<< <i>Sour grapes were also the first thing that came to my mind. He also sounds like most of the people at the local monthly card show I go to. Oddly enough, there seems to be many more people who prefer raw over graded. You're right about them wanting WAY too much for their raw cards. Some of them want graded card prices for their raw! I simply skip those folks. >>
..and some want too much for their "low pop" graded cards as well. Take a look at card shows and raw sales on ebay and tell me how easy it is to find a pre even 1980 card in PSA 10 shape? Countless CASE busts and still very few!!! Some of these "low pop" cards will not hold value, others may increase as sub after sub doesnt hurt the pop reports, more cards are locked away in sets newer collectors are pursuing.
"expose of shill
bidding ,grading scams,bogus population reports),
the manipulated inflated prices"
This has gone on, and continues to go on in EVERY free market from Real Estate to convenience stores.
<< <i>With the infinite supply of baseball cards,
you name the series . Whether it is Old Judge
or T206 or Goudeys , >>
Nothing like a bit of hyperbole to ram home a point?
Whether it be 1 or 10 million, all card runs are "finite."
<< <i>
<< <i>With the infinite supply of baseball cards,
you name the series . Whether it is Old Judge
or T206 or Goudeys , >>
Nothing like a bit of hyperbole to ram home a point?
Whether it be 1 or 10 million, all card runs are "finite." >>
Reminds me of one of the funnier rants last month
" ALL CARDS. ALL CARDS WILL BE WORTH LESS IN 50 YEARS. ALL CARDS. ALL CARDS. ALL CARDS. ALL CARDS WILL BE WORTH LESS IN 50 YEARS. "
<< <i> Both sports cards and real estate have proven to be pretty sound when compared to the S&P. >>
There's no way this is true. If you data mine and pick certain years/players after their cards have already appreciated, then yes. But if you had some kind of 'index fund' for sports cards it would have been steadily falling for 20 years now.
I 'think' the S&P has averaged about 10% growth a year for the last twenty years, and I cannot believe that sports cards have kept up with that. It's very easy to look at something like a PSA 8 '52 Mantle and say 'hey, check that out- this card has gone up 300% in the last 10 years', but we have to look at ALL sportscards, and even if you restrict that to vintage you see that the vast, vast majority of cards have barely kept up with inflation. In fact, the only thing I'm sure has really climbed is high grade vintage*. Everything else, including mid-grade vintage, has shown virtually no growth (in real terms).
* I don't know about pre-war, so this applies only to 1952-present.
<< <i>
<< <i> Both sports cards and real estate have proven to be pretty sound when compared to the S&P. >>
There's no way this is true. If you data mine and pick certain years/players after their cards have already appreciated, then yes. But if you had some kind of 'index fund' for sports cards it would have been steadily falling for 20 years now.
I 'think' the S&P has averaged about 10% growth a year for the last twenty years, and I cannot believe that sports cards have kept up with that. It's very easy to look at something like a PSA 8 '52 Mantle and say 'hey, check that out- this card has gone up 300% in the last 10 years', but we have to look at ALL sportscards, and even if you restrict that to vintage you see that the vast, vast majority of cards have barely kept up with inflation. In fact, the only thing I'm sure has really climbed is high grade vintage*. Everything else, including mid-grade vintage, has shown virtually no growth (in real terms).
* I don't know about pre-war, so this applies only to 1952-present. >>
Boo:
My apologies if my post suggested that ANY sports cards would be sound compared to the S&P. I will contend that a well managed sports card portfolio featuring blue chips has and will continue to produce positive returns.
There is very little that I've purchased over the past 10 years that I've seen a loss on (some have been stagnant, however). But then again, I've been buying higher grade vintage football, have nearly completed the 1948 Leaf Football Master Set and have focused on above average for the grade (sharp and well centered) rookie and/or limited cards of the greats of baseball, basketball and hockey in addition to the "undervalued" football cards that I've been buying a little less selectively.
I also have several private investors for whom I've been managing portfolios for the past 5-8 years. All have realized double digit increases annually using available market pricing. In fact, one just cashed out early this past summer. His total investment was just over $8K. After he deducted ALL of his selling expenses (he sold most on eBay and a few items through Memory Lane) and my management expenses, he realized a net profit of just under $3500 on a portfolio I managed for just nearly 4 years.
Are the kids today into cards like previous generations? Probably not, but that doesn't mean they won't move into collecting later. It seems virtually everyone on the boards stopped collecting at some point in their teen years and picked it up again later. Today's kids will also have the advantage of collecting on line, opening up a whole new world of cards we never saw at local shows when we were kids.
"Molon Labe"
<< <i>But if you had some kind of 'index fund' for sports cards it would have been steadily falling for 20 years now. >>
I think this is a great idea! Who says one couldn't be created?
How about it, Joe? Why not track an "SMR index" each month? Each sport, non-sport, pre-war, etc.
I was around when companies like Superlative and ASA started.
Tho ASA - the brainchild of Alan Hager - had merit with respect to the development of the Arrowhead holder - used by PSA - and the 10 pt. grading system - there was a fall from grace when Hager got in the business of grading AND selling his own cards!
SGC started up with the 100 pt system and failed at first - but the king was PSA (around 1992) who rocketed to success with the grading of the Wagner and the rest is history.
Perhaps - to some - the genesis of the "Registry" - spawned the madness of the Pop 1 or 2. I.e., people fighting over a Pop 1 common - inflating to a couple of grand and being sold to become top dog - where the same card a few years earlier might have gone for a buck or two? I'll leave this to the experts to figure where this whole thing winds up.
But, I will say - that today's Pop 1 could be tomorrow's Pop 22? So, there could easily be some dissatisfaction and disillusionment in the collector such that he quits the hobby and jumps into collecting beanie babies or pogs?
I don't know whether there's a "bubble" - but that's just the chance we take with a hobby I guess?
<< <i>
<< <i>But if you had some kind of 'index fund' for sports cards it would have been steadily falling for 20 years now. >>
I think this is a great idea! Who says one couldn't be created?
How about it, Joe? Why not track an "SMR index" each month? Each sport, non-sport, pre-war, etc. >>
Yeah, and I'll write the credit default swaps on the index..
F
2/25/10 Price........11.78
03/6/09 Price............1.65
1-Yr Return.............+ 489%
........................
BAC
2/25/10 Price.........16.55
03/6/09 Price.........3.00
1-Yr Return............+ 322%
..........................
EBAY
2/25/10 Price......23.00
3/6/09 Price.......9.91
1-Yr Return.........+ 112%
.................................
CLCT
2/25/10 Price.........9.41
3/4/09 Price.........3.05
1-Yr Return........... + 179%
.................
And, there are hundreds of other examples.
Cards are good for flipping, if you can pick the right ones and steal them.
Stocks are usually better/safer/easier, but prolly not as fun.
<< <i>I gotta stop the
Yes and no.
The poster that I quoted - tho talking about graded, as such - also alluded to the internet, credit and real estate bubbles...
So he's not just talking about grading - he's hinting about collecting as an investment I guess - alluding to the high cost of graded cards and the potential of the bottom falling out.
As long as I'm at this point in the discussion - my problem is not with the over all premise but rather the boorish tone - I felt a bit like I was being lectured at - I felt he was pontificating instead of illuminating.
"...Yeah, and I'll write the credit default swaps on the index...."
//////////////////////
And I'll write the reinsurance on all the CDS'.
If we can find enough suckers to burn, the govt
will bail us out when we all implode.
<< <i>"...Yeah, and I'll write the credit default swaps on the index...."
//////////////////////
And I'll write the reinsurance on all the CDS'.
If we can find enough suckers to burn, the govt
will bail us out when we all implode. >>
Now that's funny.
On another note, for those of you worried about your PSA graded cards becoming worth zilch if PSA folds or another Grading company coming out, far more more superior than PSA. Then I suggest you hedge your investment if your PSA collection is worth that much to you.
The only way I see it, is by either A) Taking a short postion in PSA stock or,
<< <i>Storm...did you have to remind me of Ford.. I'm still having nightmares of bailing at $5 Got in at 1.50 avg
On another note, for those of you worried about your PSA graded cards becoming worth zilch if PSA folds or another Grading company coming out, far more more superior than PSA. Then I suggest you hedge your investment if your PSA collection is worth that much to you.
The only way I see it, is by either A) Taking a short postion in PSA stock or,
that's too complicated.
I've got all my money tied up in cash.
<< <i>
<< <i>I gotta stop the
Yes and no.
The poster that I quoted - tho talking about graded, as such - also alluded to the internet, credit and real estate bubbles...
So he's not just talking about grading - he's hinting about collecting as an investment I guess - alluding to the high cost of graded cards and the potential of the bottom falling out.
As long as I'm at this point in the discussion - my problem is not with the over all premise but rather the boorish tone - I felt a bit like I was being lectured at - I felt he was pontificating instead of illuminating. >>
Stone... I'm sorry. I stopped reading and did not respond off the whole question. But still think grading has it's pros and cons.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I gotta stop the
Yes and no.
The poster that I quoted - tho talking about graded, as such - also alluded to the internet, credit and real estate bubbles...
So he's not just talking about grading - he's hinting about collecting as an investment I guess - alluding to the high cost of graded cards and the potential of the bottom falling out.
As long as I'm at this point in the discussion - my problem is not with the over all premise but rather the boorish tone - I felt a bit like I was being lectured at - I felt he was pontificating instead of illuminating. >>
Stone... I'm sorry. I stopped reading and did not respond off the whole question. But still think grading has it's pros and cons. >>
You don't have to apologize - this is just a friendly discussion on something that caught my eye/attention.
Keep in mind - again - this was a baseball board forum - and this was totally out of the blue that the guy jumped on the soap box and started to rant.
I totally agree about graded cards - there's plenty of merit - I don't think - ever - the intent of TPG's was to affect investment in any fashion - it was to provide a grade to the card; safeguarding the collector from fakes and alterations.
Of course - it's not 100% - but what is? Check that - aging is 100% - we WILL die.
"Common sense is the best distributed commodity in the world, for every man is convinced that he is well supplied with it"
<< <i>
<< <i>Storm...did you have to remind me of Ford.. I'm still having nightmares of bailing at $5 Got in at 1.50 avg
On another note, for those of you worried about your PSA graded cards becoming worth zilch if PSA folds or another Grading company coming out, far more more superior than PSA. Then I suggest you hedge your investment if your PSA collection is worth that much to you.
The only way I see it, is by either A) Taking a short postion in PSA stock or,
that's too complicated.
I've got all my money tied up in cash. >>
I hope its in the BANK OF SEALY
<< <i>
On another note, for those of you worried about your PSA graded cards becoming worth zilch if PSA folds or another Grading company coming out, far more more superior than PSA. Then I suggest you hedge your investment if your PSA collection is worth that much to you. >>
I care that my cards hold value, I don't like throwing money down the drain. I'm saying... what if PSA Became GEM grading. Would we send our cards to the new number one, I think so.
edit sorry
<< <i>Mike, finally an interesting thread. I agree the original poster sounds like a bitter old school dealer. Before TPGs, dealers were the experts in the hobby calling the shots. With the advent of TPGs, I think most dealers were dealt a justifiable blow to their egos and pocketbooks. >>
Thanx Curt.
I do believe that it levelled the playing field.
And, more importantly - gave a little more confidence to the novice collector.
Before grading came on the scene - the list of dealers that over-graded as much as 2 grades was too numerous to count!
My favorite to this day - guys that sell in SCD - list a card in PSA 8 for 450 bucks and have the same card listed as MINT for 250 bucks! What?
E.g. Pologrounds. I may have misquoted the amounts a bit - but I'm not off on their model - they do this all the time - I just don't have an SCD in front of me to reference - but if I were to dig one out - I think I'm not off by much.
Now, the thing I didn't mention but we're all aware - with the growth of some really fine companies like PSA, SGC and Beckett, there's the low of lows like Gem and Pro - who for a price will grade just about anything!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Storm...did you have to remind me of Ford.. I'm still having nightmares of bailing at $5 Got in at 1.50 avg
On another note, for those of you worried about your PSA graded cards becoming worth zilch if PSA folds or another Grading company coming out, far more more superior than PSA. Then I suggest you hedge your investment if your PSA collection is worth that much to you.
The only way I see it, is by either A) Taking a short postion in PSA stock or,
that's too complicated.
I've got all my money tied up in cash. >>
I hope its in the BANK OF SEALY
Now that's funny!
I'll take the present with the vast selection of cards on ebay, PSA graded cards, etc, over the past situation anytime.
By sending your cards to the new #1 you will most likely take a huge hit investment wise.
IMO...The next generation of grading will be all computer software driven. No more human grading
<< <i>All ya have to do is go into a typical B&M card shop to see how things "used to be" and of course still are if the only place ya buy cards is at a typical B&M weasel card shop. Most card shops have little or no PSA graded cards and all the overgrading and recolored, trimmed, ripoff overpriced vintage and modern cards are all there for sale - that's the way it used to be everywhere.
I'll take the present with the vast selection of cards on ebay, PSA graded cards, etc, over the past situation anytime. >>
I can't argue with ya on that one.
I believe you're talking - especially - about the early 90s and on - when there was immense growth in the hobby. And anyone with a few bucks and cards was opening up shops in relatively cheap strip malls? Not sure on this - but it's just a guess on my part.
I will tell ya - if one were to enter a card shop in the early 80s, you might find a seller to be a little more accomodating, professional, informant and helpful. Grading was still alot looser IMO but that was pretty much old school across the board.
<< <i>I care that my cards hold value, I don't like throwing money down the drain. I'm saying... what if PSA Became GEM grading. Would we send our cards to the new number one, I think so.>>>
By sending your cards to the new #1 you will most likely take a huge hit investment wise.
IMO...The next generation of grading will be all computer software driven. No more human grading >>
I find the idea of a scanner grading cards interesting - and I would sure like to see something like that in action!
On the cards holding value? No one knows fer sure - and I'm with ya - I don't like the idea of throwing money down the drain - but I buy cards because I like them - they're a form of entertainment - so I have little interest in ROI.
If ones hobby were golf - one can sink all kinds of dough into playing and equipment - is there a ROI? Sure - it's the fun of playing.
I think - just to be on the safe side - one might find a bit more joy approaching the hobby from that perspective - just my opinion.
So in reality, there will be no traditional bubble with high dollar commons. i can't see any "normal" investor/speculator paying thousands of dollars for vintage commons thinking this could be a good long term investment, or even short term investment.
<< <i>I care that my cards hold value, I don't like throwing money down the drain. I'm saying... what if PSA Became GEM grading. Would we send our cards to the new number one, I think so.>>>
By sending your cards to the new #1 you will most likely take a huge hit investment wise.
IMO...The next generation of grading will be all computer software driven. No more human grading >>
You're already taking a hit if PSA goes to number two. PSA value drops.
<< <i>
<< <i>All ya have to do is go into a typical B&M card shop to see how things "used to be" and of course still are if the only place ya buy cards is at a typical B&M weasel card shop. Most card shops have little or no PSA graded cards and all the overgrading and recolored, trimmed, ripoff overpriced vintage and modern cards are all there for sale - that's the way it used to be everywhere.
I'll take the present with the vast selection of cards on ebay, PSA graded cards, etc, over the past situation anytime. >>
I can't argue with ya on that one.
I believe you're talking - especially - about the early 90s and on - when there was immense growth in the hobby. And anyone with a few bucks and cards was opening up shops in relatively cheap strip malls? Not sure on this - but it's just a guess on my part.
I will tell ya - if one were to enter a card shop in the early 80s, you might find a seller to be a little more accomodating, professional, informant and helpful. Grading was still alot looser IMO but that was pretty much old school across the board. >>
Mike - I'll take your word on that. I was mostly only into collecting coins back around the time you mentioned. My card collection as a kid was mostly dormant during that time...my interest in cards again rejuvenated yes I guess it was around the early 90's maybe a few years before.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>All ya have to do is go into a typical B&M card shop to see how things "used to be" and of course still are if the only place ya buy cards is at a typical B&M weasel card shop. Most card shops have little or no PSA graded cards and all the overgrading and recolored, trimmed, ripoff overpriced vintage and modern cards are all there for sale - that's the way it used to be everywhere.
I'll take the present with the vast selection of cards on ebay, PSA graded cards, etc, over the past situation anytime. >>
I can't argue with ya on that one.
I believe you're talking - especially - about the early 90s and on - when there was immense growth in the hobby. And anyone with a few bucks and cards was opening up shops in relatively cheap strip malls? Not sure on this - but it's just a guess on my part.
I will tell ya - if one were to enter a card shop in the early 80s, you might find a seller to be a little more accomodating, professional, informant and helpful. Grading was still alot looser IMO but that was pretty much old school across the board. >>
Mike - I'll take your word on that. I was mostly only into collecting coins back around the time you mentioned. My card collection as a kid was mostly dormant during that time...my interest in cards again rejuvenated yes I guess it was around the early 90's maybe a few years before. >>
I am generalizing - with no agenda.
I will say - I went into a shop in 1985 in the St Louis area - the guy didn't even acknowledge my presence - I didn't know what I wanted - but he got a "no sale" since I wound up walking out.
Perhaps if he had engaged me in a conversation, I would've gotten interested in something - back in the early 80s, I had no idea what I wanted to collect.
I didn't start to get really active till 1989 - and by that time prices were already started to climb something awful!
<< <i>Don't invest... just collect. >>
That really is the bottom line. If the bubble bursts I'll be left with a lot of beautiful, well protected cards that I love.
Hope I can cope...
<< <i>I care that my cards hold value, I don't like throwing money down the drain. I'm saying... what if PSA Became GEM grading. Would we send our cards to the new number one, I think so.>>>
By sending your cards to the new #1 you will most likely take a huge hit investment wise.
IMO...The next generation of grading will be all computer software driven. No more human grading >>
I could not agree more. Just seems inevitible. If you think that PSA goes down in value when it happens, seems logical to me that it will be PSA that does it. I would be shocked if they have not had some type of work already done on this.