86-87 Fleer Basketball - What Does the Future Hold??
Nathaniel1960
Posts: 2,331 ✭✭✭✭✭
Except for low pops and high grade Jordans, I see this set continuing to go south from its highs of the early 90's. Does anyone pay close attention to this set to provide insight? On a lark I picked up a partial set tonight for what I thought was shockingly low. About 120 cards with Magic, Jabbar, Worthy, CL, and some other RC's and stars for $80 DLVD. Then I went to see how hard it would be to pick up the Bird, Barkley, Olajuwon, etc. and they were surprisingly low.
86-87 Fleer Lot
Where does this set bottom out, with a PSA 7 Jordan rounding it out? $300? 400?
86-87 Fleer Lot
Where does this set bottom out, with a PSA 7 Jordan rounding it out? $300? 400?
Kiss me once, shame on you.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
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Last time I checked, if memory serves, there were close to 2000 PSA 9s in this particular card. Despite Jordan's enduring popularity, I find myself wondering how it sustains it's $1000+ price point. I'd really like to have one in my collection, but these thoughts make it difficult to pull the trigger.
<< <i>I'd really like to have one in my collection >>
That's one of the reasons they are still selling very well. Many who couldn't afford the card,want to add one to their collection.The most important factor is the availability of unopened product. Although there are a few thousand PSA 9's, you wont see that number increasing significantly over time. You've also got to consider the crack/resubmit game many people play with this card.
#39, Yellow print dot near the top left corner ( Rickey Green)
Sticker #5 Julius Erving, Slightly OC left to right, and a rought left edge, which is usual.
Both have been stored in CU1's since I pulled them from a pack this past year.
PM me if you still need them.
I think at the very least, those high grade cards will retain their current value because I believe that for the most part, anyone who has any high grade 86 Fleer has had them graded, which made the supply surpass the demand, which obviously made the prices drop.
I've read some people's opinion that there are still thousands of sets of this stuff put away in closets, but I don't believe it. No one who owns a significant amount of these cards could possibly have been in the dark about them for over a decade now.
Anyone who has ANY sort of interest in basketball cards at all knows this is the set to have and I think in the next 2-3 yrs, the demand will gradually catch back up with the supply.
<< <i>Everyone would like to have one in their collection, that is why they sell for so much. I follow the Jordan in all grades and it never seems to get any cheaper. There are always a lot of PSA 8s and 9s on ebay and they always draw a lot of bids. It is "The Basketball Card". If you tell any random person that you collect basketball cards, one of their first questions will be "Do you have a Michale Jordan rookie card?". Factor in all the other stars and rookies in the set and it is a hobby cornerstone. >>
can't argue with ya Allen.
Heck, it was pricey back in 1990! Many didn't like the design when it came out and it bombed - if memory serves.
Can't remember how much the retail was on a pack? It was either a quarter or half buck?
mike
<< <i>U dont think out of all of those who bought case after case of 1986 topps baseball not even 10% of them didnt buy 1986 Fleer Bk. There will be finds in the future of this product. It will come out. It was only 20+ years ago. I think it will go down in price. >>
My understanding was that they didn't print anywhere near what Topps did.
mike
My distributor would get case upon case of baseball each week. When basketball shipped he got it 1x and he got 2 cases.
This was a guy with one of the larger candy wholesale operations.
Steve
<< <i>My understanding was that they didn't print anywhere near what Topps did.
mike >>
understatement of all-time, perhaps?
Here are the factors that make 86 Fleer basketball far superior than other other set in the past 25 years combined:
limited print - there hadn't been a basketball set made in 4 yrs for a reason...no one was interested. So if you think that the print run of 86 Fleer was even close to 86 Topps baseball, you're crazy
very condition sensitive - those red borders, cheap stock, OC and rough cuts, wax and gum stains make high grade copies tough to find
Jordan RC, not to mention several other HOF RCs - this set is loaded with star power
The sticker got the wax stain too.
Steve
<< <i>Can't remember how much the retail was on a pack? It was either a quarter or half buck?mike >>
Mike ... back in the late 80s, when I was selling and buying at shows every friggin weekend (more buying than selling),
I had the opportunity to buy as many boxes of 86 Fleer Basketball as I wanted for $10 - $15 per box. But I knew it all ...
those things were not worth it! LOL So instead I bought a couple thousand dollars worth of 1988 Fleer and Donruss
BASEBALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That $2,000 invested in FL BB wax @ $15 per box would be worth over ONE MILLION today. great move, eh? LMFAO
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
<< <i>U dont think out of all of those who bought case after case of 1986 topps baseball not even 10% of them didnt buy 1986 Fleer Bk. There will be finds in the future of this product. It will come out. It was only 20+ years ago. I think it will go down in price. >>
Yeah with buy offers of $90,000 out on cases I am sure people are just sitting on them. When one case surfaced like 3 years ago it made big news in the hobby and at the time they commented it was the first case found in the last 6 or 7 years IIRC.
Allen hit the nail right on the head. The stuff is scarce.
Steve
<< <i>Yes there are people sitting on them. >>
86 Fleer baseball, maybe
<< <i>Yes there are people sitting on them. >>
Wife: "Dang it Earl, when you gonna sell them ol' ball cards you $400 per case for?"
Husband: "When they are worth sellin, I can only get $225,000 per case for em right now."
I'm not saying the bottom is gonna fall out - I just think I wouldn't gamble - my gut tells me there's very little left in the way of cases anymore?
But, ya never know?
mike
<< <i>
I think at the very least, those high grade cards will retain their current value because I believe that for the most part, anyone who has any high grade 86 Fleer has had them graded, which made the supply surpass the demand, which obviously made the prices drop.
. >>
You could be right, but there are two things worth noting:
1) No modern product has ever 'rebounded' in value. Or at least not a single one I can think of. There are never peaks and valleys with this stuff; it hits a high, and then it starts to bottom out.
2) The hobby is shrinking. As such, supply remains constant while demand continues to shrink.
The future for '86 Fleer BKB is probably grim, but that's the case with almost everything printed after 1971.
<< <i>
1) No modern product has ever 'rebounded' in value. Or at least not a single one I can think of. There are never peaks and valleys with this stuff; it hits a high, and then it starts to bottom out. >>
This is a great point and worthy of its own thread. I'd like to know any exceptions to this rule.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
collecting RAW Topps baseball cards 1952 Highs to 1972. looking for collector grade (somewhere between psa 4-7 condition). let me know what you have, I'll take it, I want to finish sets, I must have something you can use for trade.
looking for Topps 71-72 hi's-62-53-54-55-59, I have these sets started
As for modern sets that have rebounded, look at some of the 90's basketball insert sets. A lot of that junk wax is suddenly much more expensive largely due to the international interest in basketball and the newfound love of the 1990's basketball sets.
<< <i>Wife: "Dang it Earl, when you gonna sell them ol' ball cards you $400 per case for?"
Husband: "When they are worth sellin, I can only get $225,000 per case for em right now." >>
LMAO, fantastic! If there was someone holding a large amount of cases back,we'd know by now. The 75 Topps Mini hoard wasn't a secret. I can't see a hoard showing up that someone doesn't know about and isn't sharing. I see this set increasing (long term) as basketball becomes ever more popular around the world.
1961-62 Fleer packs. Rare but not to valuable 1000.00 a pack seems cheap to me because its from 1961. And it has Wilt C and many other rookies like the 1986. But the price per pack in about 1996 was only about 400.00 a pack. There were only a few cases found nothing like the 1986 product. And it has most likely peaked itself. It may hit 1500.00 a pack but that will be years from now. I can see the 1986 Fleer product going back to the 225-265 per pack from a reputable dealer in 10 years. Its a very nice product but its at its prime and going down.
Just for the sake of discussion, I'm curious how someone who was "very young" in 2001 could end up with a case and 4 boxes of 86 fleer basketball.
I couldn't swear to every detail but it's certainly true that it is a story.
I'd be interested to know whether the majority of the board felt this card was overpriced, underpriced, or accurately priced.
At present, I'll have to be content with the 1985 Nike card. The card looks great in a slab in my opinion.
Believe what you want it really doesnt matter to me. Just giving yall some insight on a deal that happened.
<< <i>One of the cases will have all the Js showing in the Red and the other case will have the Js showing in the blue. But this one was where you couldnt see the js so the w packs have the jordan. >>
I don't doubt your story,there are some interesting details you've shared. So with the two case differences,you'd be able to know whether or not there were Jordan base cards on the front of the packs? Or are you talking about the stickers showing on the back of the packs?Either way,the cases back then were a pretty penny.Again, I seriously doubt there are cases upon cases of this product laying around.
I work at a warehouse that distributes to C stores and Ma and Pa stores. Back in the 80's when everybody thought you could get rich by buying and selling cards the owner would put a case of everything we got in, away for him. Back then it wasn't too hard with only a few products coming out a year.
So along with the case of 87 and 88 topps baseball he has a case of 86 Fleer Basketball put away. I once heard don't bother telling him how much some of this stuff is worth. He just nods and says one day it will be worth more.
I guess that's the attidude you have when money is of no concern.
Now if he was smart enough to do something like this how many others did the same thing only do forget about it years later.
BTW. I didn't work there at the time. When I got there everything was already "junk wax" that came in through the door.
<< <i>
<< <i>
1) No modern product has ever 'rebounded' in value. Or at least not a single one I can think of. There are never peaks and valleys with this stuff; it hits a high, and then it starts to bottom out. >>
This is a great point and worthy of its own thread. I'd like to know any exceptions to this rule. >>
I think it's because of the nature of sportscard collectors. This is a hobby that runs through fads, and once a fad passes it never regains steam. This is the issue that (IMO) people overlook on something like '86 Fleer. I'll agree that there probably aren't hordes of wax cases kicking around in a warehouse somewhere, but supply even remains constant where is this excess demand going to come from? Prices have been flat (or going down) for 10 years, and the hobby is shrinking every month. For there to be a shift in the market price for a product that had a print run in the 100's of 1000's you're going to need hundreds upon hundreds of new collectors of this set to enter the market while none of the existing enthusiasts exit.. To date, this has never happened. That might change, but why would we expect it to?
The parallel to '90's inserts has some merit, but it's a little like comparing apples to oranges. Many of the '90's inserts had very limited print runs- much smaller than 86 Fleer. As such, it only takes a few dozen guys to enter the market in order to see a price increase. This isn't true for '86 Fleer.
Also, while the price of '86 Fleer is high by modern standards, this isn't really an expensive set to build in high grade. You can put together a mint, graded s et for a few thousand dollars, and a nice raw set for less than that. Because of this, I think almost all current collectors who want to put this set together already have done so. I wouldn't expect to find many people who are desparate to put together this set, but haven't yet done so because the price is too high. This means that the floor for this set--whatever it might be-- probably hasn't been hit yet. It's not like something like '52 Topps (another iconic set), which has had a firm hobby base for 35 years, and literally thousands of collectors who haven't done the set yet only because it's too cost prohibitive. As with most modern sets, almost everyone who wants one already has one, and that doesn't bode well for the future of this set either.
<< <i>see a j is showing through the red >>
So you mean pressing on the front of the pack and identifying what card is visible thru the wrapper? So with what you stated, Fleer made two case types, and A & B.(Were they marked "A" & "B"?). If the front card of the wax pack had a "player with the last name of J" then it was likely to have a Jordan in the pack? Also,only "B" cases had that sequence? Otherwise, "A" cases were a crapshoot? Basically,any chance of me pulling a Jordan in any graded pack,not from a sealed case, is minimal?
Edited to add: I know about the stickers,assumed you got more in an "A" case or "B" case.
Both packs have the same cards( but some variance with the number of card in each pack , but on average this works,, 12 cards 132 in the set. 11 packs almost makes a set leaving a few to change each pack as it goes)
Not sure I explained it well enough, are you familiar with this product. Send me a Pm and I may be able to help.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
1) No modern product has ever 'rebounded' in value. Or at least not a single one I can think of. There are never peaks and valleys with this stuff; it hits a high, and then it starts to bottom out. >>
This is a great point and worthy of its own thread. I'd like to know any exceptions to this rule. >>
I think it's because of the nature of sportscard collectors. This is a hobby that runs through fads, and once a fad passes it never regains steam. This is the issue that (IMO) people overlook on something like '86 Fleer. I'll agree that there probably aren't hordes of wax cases kicking around in a warehouse somewhere, but supply even remains constant where is this excess demand going to come from? Prices have been flat (or going down) for 10 years, and the hobby is shrinking every month. For there to be a shift in the market price for a product that had a print run in the 100's of 1000's you're going to need hundreds upon hundreds of new collectors of this set to enter the market while none of the existing enthusiasts exit.. To date, this has never happened. That might change, but why would we expect it to?
The parallel to '90's inserts has some merit, but it's a little like comparing apples to oranges. Many of the '90's inserts had very limited print runs- much smaller than 86 Fleer. As such, it only takes a few dozen guys to enter the market in order to see a price increase. This isn't true for '86 Fleer.
Also, while the price of '86 Fleer is high by modern standards, this isn't really an expensive set to build in high grade. You can put together a mint, graded s et for a few thousand dollars, and a nice raw set for less than that. Because of this, I think almost all current collectors who want to put this set together already have done so. I wouldn't expect to find many people who are desparate to put together this set, but haven't yet done so because the price is too high. This means that the floor for this set--whatever it might be-- probably hasn't been hit yet. It's not like something like '52 Topps (another iconic set), which has had a firm hobby base for 35 years, and literally thousands of collectors who haven't done the set yet only because it's too cost prohibitive. As with most modern sets, almost everyone who wants one already has one, and that doesn't bode well for the future of this set either. >>
I'm interested in this topic and think it is deserving of a thread as well. Has a modern set ever rebounded in value? One just popped into my head and I wonder if it passes the test. 1993 Baseball Finest Refractors. Around 1995, I remember buying an Albert Belle raw (naturally) card in SCD for like $550, then sold it for a slight profit a couple months later due to anxiety. It might have been the only wise card decision I have ever made (moving that card before the swoon) so I remember that set fondly. I think the set plummeted in value for some time as that was once THE scarce set and then you started having scarcity all over the place. But I feel although it would take a while to return to the hype it had in the mid-90s, it has rebounded to a degree. I feel like there was a time I could have got my Belle back for $8 but would probably pay $20-30 now. Maybe there was the quick exit because people felt that the widespread scarcity didn't make it as special. But after everyone headed for the turnstiles, something happened and people returned. Interested in others thought on this.
<< <i>86-87 Fleer Basketball - What Does the Future Hold?? >>
the time traveller picks up a box and it turns to dust.
Its price has been pretty stable over time, and I suspect it will remain so.
<< <i>Just went and cherry picked 10 cases my neighbor had in his garage. I looked for the "W" and "J" showing and now I have 24 nice Marques Johnson #54's. Thanks >>
Is your neighbor interested in selling any of his cases? Or is he sitting on them, like all of my neighbors are?
The PSA 9 continues to hold and even go up gradually which I believe is only due to people trying to buy the 9's and resub trying to hit the gold ring.
JMHO
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