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Panda migration???
gecko109
Posts: 8,231 ✭
This was 1st posted in the Precious Metals forum, but since some of you dont make it over there, I decided to post here as well.
Silver Baron's recent F.U.N. metals report has reinforced my suspicions/theory on the current "Great Panda Migration". Although there was bullion gold galore at this years show, only a very tiny fraction of it was made up of those cuddly bears. What has been happening in the past 2-3 years is that a few well known (in panda circles) Americans of Chinese descent in this country have been buying every panda they can get their hands on. What are they doing with all these coins? Its simple...."re-exporting" them to China!
For the great majority of the panda years (1982-present), it was actually illegal for Chinese citizens to own gold. Therefore almost every single gold panda was exported to other parts of the world, with the U.S. getting the lion's share. This came to a halt in 2009, when they were allowed to buy gold legally for the 1st time in over 50 years! Now, with China's new prosperity and newly "minted" millionaires, it seems gold pandas have become quite a popular way for these people to collect gold. With miniscule mintages, compared to any other major Government issued bullion, and a huge Chinese population, the supply of these coins are in fact drying up rapidly.
Just how low are the mintages? For statistics up to date to 2006, the highest single mintage of 1 oz gold pandas was the 1988 at 289,000 pieces. The lowest is the 1982 at around 13,000 pieces struck. For the U.S. gold eagle series, 2001 leads the way in LOWEST mintage with 143,000 pieces struck, while there are at least 4 different years with mintages past the million mark! A vast majority of the panda years fall into the 23,000-55,000 range for mintages, thus making them quite scarce when considering the potential demand! I have read that there were more 1978 K-Rands minted than there were 1 oz gold pandas from 1982-2004!!! That is simply startling when you begin to think about just how few pandas there actually are.
Prices of pandas are also confirming this migratory species. It is very difficult to consistantly find pandas selling on par with their counterpart bullion coins. Ebay closing prices are almost always higher for pandas (any given year) than they are for GAE's, Maples, or K-Rands. In fact, common date pandas are even outpacing the popular U.S. gold Buffalos. And im sure that after a few more years of production, the Buff's premiums will soon fade.
I am currently about 43% done with my gold panda complete (139 coin) set (as expressed by weight, not number of coins), and its becomming harder and harder to find the coins I need for anywhere near melt prices. I feel that this trend will continue as more and more of these wonderful coins are sent back to the motherland. In 15-20 years, pandas will be an endangered, if not extinct coin species in this country!
Silver Baron's recent F.U.N. metals report has reinforced my suspicions/theory on the current "Great Panda Migration". Although there was bullion gold galore at this years show, only a very tiny fraction of it was made up of those cuddly bears. What has been happening in the past 2-3 years is that a few well known (in panda circles) Americans of Chinese descent in this country have been buying every panda they can get their hands on. What are they doing with all these coins? Its simple...."re-exporting" them to China!
For the great majority of the panda years (1982-present), it was actually illegal for Chinese citizens to own gold. Therefore almost every single gold panda was exported to other parts of the world, with the U.S. getting the lion's share. This came to a halt in 2009, when they were allowed to buy gold legally for the 1st time in over 50 years! Now, with China's new prosperity and newly "minted" millionaires, it seems gold pandas have become quite a popular way for these people to collect gold. With miniscule mintages, compared to any other major Government issued bullion, and a huge Chinese population, the supply of these coins are in fact drying up rapidly.
Just how low are the mintages? For statistics up to date to 2006, the highest single mintage of 1 oz gold pandas was the 1988 at 289,000 pieces. The lowest is the 1982 at around 13,000 pieces struck. For the U.S. gold eagle series, 2001 leads the way in LOWEST mintage with 143,000 pieces struck, while there are at least 4 different years with mintages past the million mark! A vast majority of the panda years fall into the 23,000-55,000 range for mintages, thus making them quite scarce when considering the potential demand! I have read that there were more 1978 K-Rands minted than there were 1 oz gold pandas from 1982-2004!!! That is simply startling when you begin to think about just how few pandas there actually are.
Prices of pandas are also confirming this migratory species. It is very difficult to consistantly find pandas selling on par with their counterpart bullion coins. Ebay closing prices are almost always higher for pandas (any given year) than they are for GAE's, Maples, or K-Rands. In fact, common date pandas are even outpacing the popular U.S. gold Buffalos. And im sure that after a few more years of production, the Buff's premiums will soon fade.
I am currently about 43% done with my gold panda complete (139 coin) set (as expressed by weight, not number of coins), and its becomming harder and harder to find the coins I need for anywhere near melt prices. I feel that this trend will continue as more and more of these wonderful coins are sent back to the motherland. In 15-20 years, pandas will be an endangered, if not extinct coin species in this country!
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