Who WILL get into the HOF?

markj111 · January 5, 2010 7:55AM

We all have our own standards for who we think should be in. Who do you think will make it?

My prediction:

Only Alomar makes it. Blyleven gets closer, Dawson slips a little, and Raines picks up support.

RonBurgundy · January 5, 2010 7:59AM

I'll predict Alomar, Bert, and Dawson all make it in. Raines tops 50% in voting.

TheVon · January 5, 2010 8:45AM

2010 candidates - from MLB.com:
• Roberto Alomar
• Harold Baines
• Bert Blyleven
• Andre Dawson
• Andres Galarraga
• Barry Larkin
• Edgar Martinez
• Don Mattingly
• Fred McGriff
• Mark McGwire
• Jack Morris
• Dale Murphy
• Dave Parker
• Tim Raines
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell
• Other candidates - i.e. people who don't really have a prayer.

I think the middle infielders in this group have the best shot: Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin. I think Dawson finally makes it in this year too.

Personally, I'd like to see Martinez and Raines make it in though. Especially Raines.

metsfan · January 5, 2010 9:51AM

Think it will be Blyleven and Raines.

Orioles · January 5, 2010 10:38AM

Blyleven gets in. Raines comes close and Todd Zeile ends up with 2 votes.

HGenesis · January 5, 2010 10:56AM

Edgar Martinez should be a no-doubt about it, first ballot hall of famer. If the argument is 'specialists' like a DH shouldn't make it, then why are relievers being voted in?

lsutigers1973 · January 5, 2010 12:17PM

Relievers were always a part of the game and are in both the AL and NL. If a DH is sent to the NL they call it retirement.

megatron · January 5, 2010 12:22PM

Todd Zeile rocks!!!

HGenesis · January 5, 2010 12:32PM

<< Relievers were always a part of the game and are in both the AL and NL. If a DH is sent to the NL they call it retirement. >>

No, relievers were not always a part of the game...just look at the obscene number of complete games old-time pitchers used to throw. Regardless of when they came into being, relievers are a specialist just like the DH is.

lsutigers1973 · January 5, 2010 12:40PM

If a DH is sent to the NL they call it retirement.

bking · January 5, 2010 12:52PM

<< 

<< Relievers were always a part of the game and are in both the AL and NL. If a DH is sent to the NL they call it retirement. >>

No, relievers were not always a part of the game...just look at the obscene number of complete games old-time pitchers used to throw. Regardless of when they came into being, relievers are a specialist just like the DH is. >>

Yes, there were an obscene number of CGs, but every staff had guys who pitched relief, just not as frequently or as specialized.

Edgar Martinez is not getting in unless he makes it rain in the veterans committee meeting someday.

HGenesis · January 5, 2010 12:59PM

<< 

<< 

<< Relievers were always a part of the game and are in both the AL and NL. If a DH is sent to the NL they call it retirement. >>

No, relievers were not always a part of the game...just look at the obscene number of complete games old-time pitchers used to throw. Regardless of when they came into being, relievers are a specialist just like the DH is. >>

Yes, there were an obscene number of CGs, but every staff had guys who pitched relief, just not as frequently or as specialized.

The reliever role only came into prominence in the 70s, when guys like Goose Gossage came into prominence. The era of the specialized reliever has been around just as long as the DH. Ergo, if the position of 'reliever' or 'closer' has only become hall of fame worthy since then (no reliever before then has ever been inducted into the hall) then there is no valid argument against the inclusion of DH.

But wait, you say, the DH plays no defense. So what? How many guys not named Ozzie Smith are inducted for the defensive abilities? It's a hypocritical argument, at best, ignorance at worst.

Edgar is widely regarded as one of the best hitters to ever play the game, and will rightly be enshrined in the hall. It might not be this year, but he will be there.

HGenesis · January 5, 2010 1:00PM

<< If a DH is sent to the NL they call it retirement. >>

This line makes absolutely, positively no sense. Simply saying it over and over doesn't make it make any more sense.

bking · January 5, 2010 1:13PM

<< 

Edgar is widely regarded as one of the best hitters to ever play the game, and will rightly be enshrined in the hall. It might not be this year, but he will be there. >>

Well, according to baseball ref, he's been Moises Alou for most of his career.

Most similar players (top 5) Will Clark, Todd Helton, John Olerud, Moises Alou, & Bobby Abreu.

Most similar by age:

Most Similar by Ages
View Player Links in Pop-up
Hold mouse over #'s to see names

27. Joe Randa (970) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
28. Dave Stapleton (971) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
29. Corey Koskie (941) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
30. Jackie Robinson (940) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
31. Pepper Martin (935) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
32. Johnny Frederick (942) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
33. Rusty Greer (921) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
34. Moises Alou (890) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
35. Moises Alou (889) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
36. Moises Alou (875) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
37. Babe Herman (882) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
38. Moises Alou (873) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
39. Chuck Klein (872) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
40. Moises Alou (883) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
41. Moises Alou (879) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

Guy had a nice career, but without the DH he wouldn't have lasted that long at all. He never played over 155 games in a season, and only played 140 in half of his years. While fielding isn't everything, he was done as a fielder by 30, and it's not like the M's had any stellar 3B to push him to DH.

lsutigers1973 · January 5, 2010 1:14PM

<< The reliever role only came into prominence in the 70s, when guys like Goose Gossage came into prominence. >>

Really? You remind me of someone else that used to hang around here that knew nothing about baseball history.

Google Baseball Almanac Relief Pitchers and tell me when you think closers came into prominence.

Just so you don't have to google something else, DH wasn't even a position until 1973.

grote15 · January 5, 2010 1:18PM

For a DH to get in, he'd have to be at least an outstanding player at a regular position in the field, unless he is lights out at the plate. Edgar is pretty close, but it's going to be tough for him to overcome the DH bias...another thing to realize in the reliever vs DH debate is that the best relievers are groomed to perform in that role while many DHs (not all, but many) are DHing because they are a liability in the field, or are aging players whose wheels aren't what they used to be, and that creates a negative perception among the voters.

VintageCardLover · January 5, 2010 4:35PM

Edgar didnt get a full time job until he was 25/26 and he missed a LOT Of games over the years, impressive career batting average and a superb hitter with high OPS but he will not be, nor does he deserve to be a first ballot HOF'er.

Roberto Alomar is one of the best all around 2B to play the game. he is a first ballot HOF'er.

Bert deserves to go in finally, i think he gets in.

Larkin gets a lot of votes, but doesnt get in, another guy who barely played a full season his entire career.

lanemyer85 · January 5, 2010 4:51PM

who will go into the Hall this year?

Dawson
R.Alomar

who should get in this year but won't?
Blyleven (I think he'll get in next year fwiw)
Larkin (see above)
Trammell
Raines
Lee Smith

HGenesis · January 5, 2010 5:14PM

If the argument is against the DH because of the theory that it extends players career, why was Molitor allowed in? His career (unlike Edgar's) was extended due to his becoming a full time DH. If Edgar gets into the bigs a few years earlier, he easily clears 3000 hits, and that silly, arbitrary, ridiculous number would make him an automatic hall of famer. It's comical to think of a hall of fame where a player like Craig Biggio, who stuck around for far too long, will be a hall of famer for clearing 3000 hits but was never the hitter that Edgar was.

And this notion about someone being a hall of famer, but not being a first ballot hall of famer is a joke. Either they're hall-worthy or they're not. Edgar passes all the tests. Those that truly follow baseball (i.e. those in the sport) know Edgar was the best bat of his generation. Suggesting that because he didn't play in the field, while at the same time not discounting relievers who don't throw more than one inning is the epitome of hypocrisy.

One need to look at just one statistic to prove simply how dominant he was, the number of seasons with OPS+ of 150 or more. OPS+, for those who don't know (or don't care to know about new ways of determining a batter's value), takes a players OPS and adjusts it for era, park, etc. so you can compare players of different eras. 150 or more is an amazing season, and Edgar had 8 of them. That's more than Reggie Jackson, who was a sure-fire, no doubt about it hall of famer. Only 24 players have done it in their careers, and every one (besides Edgar) either is in the hall or is a mortal lock (guys like Thome and Pujols).

So, take out your disdain of the DH if that's your reason. Take out your pre-conceived notions that injuries are what caused Edgar to move to DH (they didn't, he only had one major injury in his career). Take out your west-coast biases and look at the numbers, and they'll tell you he deserves the hall of fame.

bking · January 6, 2010 12:35AM

<< If the argument is against the DH because of the theory that it extends players career, why was Molitor allowed in? His career (unlike Edgar's) was extended due to his becoming a full time DH. If Edgar gets into the bigs a few years earlier, he easily clears 3000 hits, and that silly, arbitrary, ridiculous number would make him an automatic hall of famer. It's comical to think of a hall of fame where a player like Craig Biggio, who stuck around for far too long, will be a hall of famer for clearing 3000 hits but was never the hitter that Edgar was.

And this notion about someone being a hall of famer, but not being a first ballot hall of famer is a joke. Either they're hall-worthy or they're not. Edgar passes all the tests. Those that truly follow baseball (i.e. those in the sport) know Edgar was the best bat of his generation. Suggesting that because he didn't play in the field, while at the same time not discounting relievers who don't throw more than one inning is the epitome of hypocrisy.

One need to look at just one statistic to prove simply how dominant he was, the number of seasons with OPS+ of 150 or more. OPS+, for those who don't know (or don't care to know about new ways of determining a batter's value), takes a players OPS and adjusts it for era, park, etc. so you can compare players of different eras. 150 or more is an amazing season, and Edgar had 8 of them. That's more than Reggie Jackson, who was a sure-fire, no doubt about it hall of famer. Only 24 players have done it in their careers, and every one (besides Edgar) either is in the hall or is a mortal lock (guys like Thome and Pujols).

So, take out your disdain of the DH if that's your reason. Take out your pre-conceived notions that injuries are what caused Edgar to move to DH (they didn't, he only had one major injury in his career). Take out your west-coast biases and look at the numbers, and they'll tell you he deserves the hall of fame. >>

You're asking people to "drop their biases" and accept some ifs. Let's flip the debate and ask you to do the same. You say that "if" he reached the majors earlier, he'd be a lock, but the fact is he didn't. You say that he didn't move to DH because of injury, and you're right - he moved because he couldn't play the field as well as Mike freakin' Blowers. He apparently couldn't even slide across the diamond to 1B and field adequately, as the M's hardly had All-Star 1B talent either after Tino left. You correctly mention that he has more high-ops+ seasons than just about anyone, and that's a VERY nice endorsement for him, but when that's his only job it's not fair to compare him to guys that played the field. His career OPS+ is only 8pts over Reggie, and Reggie somehow managed to play about as many games per year as him while still primarily manning RF up until age 37 or so, and Reggie also has that post-season mystique going for him.

He may get in, and he may even deserve it in the eyes of many, but he is certainly not a no-brainer IMO.

EDIT: I don't think the argument against the DH is that it extends careers, or at least that's not my argument. Mine is that playing DH virtually your entire career means you have a black mark (not being able to field a position) and also means that your offensive stats had better far outshine other candidates who DID play the field.

markj111 · January 6, 2010 1:07AM

We need to make the distinction between "closer" and "relief pitcher." For the 1st half of the 20th century (actually a little more), the relief pitcher was usually a starter who came in for a couple of innings between starts. The first relief specialist I am aware of was Firpo Marberry of the Senators in the early twenties. Even he started nearly 200 games in his career. I believe it was not until the 50s that we had relievers who were reviewed as something other than pitchers not good enough to start (Face and Wilhelm come to mind). The true closer (brought in to pitch the ninth) was a pretty much a LaRussa invention. Prior to that, your best relief pitcher would be brought in earlier (Sutter, Gossage, Perranoski, Marshall, Fingers). Check the IPs v appearances for the relief pitchers of the 50s, 60s, and 70s. The DH actually predates the closer, but not the relief specialist.

MAD · January 6, 2010 2:58AM

Blyleven is definitely overdue.

I am biased towards Robbie Alomar as I was always a big fan of his and I've got a 1992 Humpty Dumpty in sealed pack to prove it.

I am more hopeful than I was that we'll see Roberto Alomar elected.

I just don't know that enough time has passed for the entire Hirschbeck incident to be overlooked.

Connecticoin · January 6, 2010 3:03AM

Alomar, and hopefully, Blyleven.

lsutigers1973 · January 6, 2010 4:23AM

Edgar Martinez 195 (36.2%)

So close. If he had just doubled his vote total he would be...ummm...still out.

ziggy29 · January 6, 2010 4:26AM

<< Alomar, and hopefully, Blyleven. >>

They both *barely* missed, and both had over 73% of the vote. Blyleven got 400 votes and Alomar 397; they needed 405 for induction.

TheVon · January 6, 2010 4:30AM

Blyleven and Alomar's totals indicate they'll both make it in next year.

VintageCardLover · January 7, 2010 12:30AM

"Blyleven and Alomar's totals indicate they'll both make it in next year"

true dat.

its a travesty that they didnt get in.

Blacklabelsociety · January 12, 2010 7:03PM

The whole thing is a joke.

TomGshotput · January 13, 2010 2:14PM

I know it is a week late, but Martinez and Biggio is a good comparison. For his career Martinez had an OPS 20% higher than the average DH. Biggio had an OPS only 8% higher than the average second baseman. But when you look at only his best seasons covering 2000 games to make it more comparable with Martinez it increases to 11%, adjust for playing in the Astrodome and it increases to 13 or 14% higher, I believe

Of course Biggio also had a defensive value even higher than the average second baseman and additional 800 games where he was good enough to contribute to the Astros and 400 steals. With 500 games at third, I guess we could also say Martinez had a little more defensive value than the average DH over his career

I definitely prefer Biggio more than Martinez, though can certainly accept those who see things differently. But there is a lot more to it than 146 OPS+ or 3000 hits

Also, how many years did Dick Allen have with an OPS+ above 150. If you are going to make the Hall-of-Fame based virtually 100% on hitting the ball, you need to be the best hitter not yet in the Hall-of-Fame

WeekendHacker · January 13, 2010 3:58PM

It'd be nice to see all the BBWAA reveal their votes. I'd like to see some of the writers get elected to the writers wing after having their ballots revealed and knowing they didn't vote for Ripken, Ryan, Gwynn, Brett, Henderson.........................etc, etc,etc......maybe more importantly see if they voted for Segui, Ventura, Appier and players who appeared on the ballot for just one year. Afterall, we are all evaluated on our jobs and get awarded on our performance, maybe the members of the BBWAA should be living by the same standard as most hard working americans.

Estil · January 14, 2010 9:18AM

What is up with all this talk about revealing their votes? I thought the idea of a secret ballot was a sacred American institution. I don't see people calling for revealing all the Presidential votes from 2008.

DeutscherGeist · January 14, 2010 11:51AM

I am still on the fence with Edgar Martinez. It wouldn't upset me at all to see him enshrined as he really was one of the best hitters of his generation.

Martinez is not far off from the type of hitter that Mattingly was: excellent contact hitter, some power, lots of doubles, high average with RISP.... With Mattingly, we have an excellent fielder, not someone who was a defensive liability and was placed at 1B. (first base was also one of those positions that teams hid their worst fielder).

I understand the argument that Mattingly's drop off was too severe later in his career, but his defense did not. With Edgar, there was no defensive accolades to speak of, but he was consistently a dominant hitter. However, Mattingly's peak was arguably higher than Martinez' and one of the few players with a seasonal OPS+ that led MLB at least twice.

Was Frank Thomas a better hitter than Martinez? We need to know because one cannot elect every good hitter from the 80s, 90s and 00s. The line has to be drawn somewhere. Out of all the DHs or first basemen on the ballot, that are present now and coming up in the next few years, I think Thomas has to get the nod first before anyone else.

Who WILL get into the HOF?

Comments