I thought the 10 Langboard coins were certified by NGC. Wouldn't the increase in population reports between the two services be enough to lower estimated value?
<< <i>I thought the 10 Langboard coins were certified by NGC. Wouldn't the increase in population reports between the two services be enough to lower estimated value?
Ron >>
They were certified by NGC. What is still unknown, is whether they will become legal to own. Either way, some of us here have speculated, it is that very prospect which led to the reduced value in the price guide.
<< <i>IF the 10 are legal, the value of the coins are probably in the $1-1.5 mil. range.
Right now, even if they aren't legalized I think the one coin is, in fact, worth about $3 mil.!
I had a notion of why the price dropped. I just wanted to hear opinions. Just KNOWING for sure that there are 10 more (and probably more than that) makes the "magic" of the sole legal one devalue. >>
I'm not sure I buy into this 100%.
The existance of the other 10 coins was known long ago. That 'loss of magic' was long ago.
The downward change in the PCGS price guide was recent. If I were to guess, it seems to have more to do with a recent general public perception of economic malaise.
Now, if the price reduction on the PCGS guide corresponded in time more closely to the discovery of the other 10, then i'd buy into your logic a bit more.
Perhaps I misunderstood the nature of your comment. Care to clarify?
HRH: We have to deal with the Langbord thing. JD: Yeah. HRH: Whatcha think? JD: Well, there's no way I'm paying what the guide says. HRH: Me neither. I'd pay . . . I don't know, maybe $3.5MM for one of the nicer ones. What about you? JD: Sounds about right. HRH: Yeah. But we better call Laura.
<< <i>I thought the 10 Langboard coins were certified by NGC. Wouldn't the increase in population reports between the two services be enough to lower estimated value?
Ron >>
They were certified by NGC. What is still unknown, is whether they will become legal to own. Either way, some of us here have speculated, it is that very prospect which led to the reduced value in the price guide. >>
I guess the point I was trying to convey was, does it really matter the status of the coins or any coins when part of the criteria to the coins value is it's known population.
For example, wasn't there a large hoard of Orphan Annie Dimes that was trying to be unloaded at one time in bulk raw. What would have happened to the price guides if all of these coins were graded first, then offered as a single lot. I honestly believe with the pop reports skyrocketing, it would have drove the price guides down as well. Even though the coins were still only available as a single lot.
<< <i>IF the 10 are legal, the value of the coins are probably in the $1-1.5 mil. range.
Right now, even if they aren't legalized I think the one coin is, in fact, worth about $3 mil.!
I had a notion of why the price dropped. I just wanted to hear opinions. Just KNOWING for sure that there are 10 more (and probably more than that) makes the "magic" of the sole legal one devalue. >>
I'm not sure I buy into this 100%.
The existance of the other 10 coins was known long ago. That 'loss of magic' was long ago.
The downward change in the PCGS price guide was recent. If I were to guess, it seems to have more to do with a recent general public perception of economic malaise.
Now, if the price reduction on the PCGS guide corresponded in time more closely to the discovery of the other 10, then i'd buy into your logic a bit more.
Perhaps I misunderstood the nature of your comment. Care to clarify? >>
This is merely speculation on my part, but when I saw that the Langbord coins had been certified, that made me think a settlement of the lawsuit was more likely. Which in turn makes their sale more likely. And that lowers the value of the one which is currently legal to own. In other words, even an increase in the odds that there will be 10 or more additional legal examples, affects the perceived value of the one coin.
But even then, the coins were graded by NGC long ago. And the price guide change is recent.
Perhaps the prices changed now just because they got around to it now. Perhaps it is unreasonable of me to read in to the timing of this to try to link it to some other event.
Clearly, it would be premature and presumptious for PCGS to reflect a price that included 10 more coins. The Langbords haven't won yet and the government is fighting hard.
I wish the government would deal with Ahmadinejad and Li'l Kim with the same veracity as we are the Langbords!
<< <i>But even then, the coins were graded by NGC long ago. And the price guide change is recent.
Perhaps the prices changed now just because they got around to it now. Perhaps it is unreasonable of me to read in to the timing of this to try to link it to some other event. >>
I think it was only about 2 months ago that the news of the NGC certification came out.
As others have said its logical to think that the value is less now that we know with 100% certainty that others exist in reasonable condition. As far as speculating why the value in the price guide was lowered perhaps maybe no one had considered it till now. In any regards placing value on one last know sale is speculative too. Or perhaps someone called PCGS to complain about the value as maybe they had some for sale and were speculating on tax ramifications. Or perhaps the moon is in the 7th house and Jupiter aligned with Mars.. So my speculation is to blame it on the age of aquarius and its 2150 year occurrence.
just the mere fact that the legal coin is now certainly one of 13 vice one of 3 is enough to justify the price drop. If this lawsuit ever comes close to settlement, the value will drop even more. And once they are legal, all the coins will settle into the $2-3M range.
Assigning values to ultra rarities is actually pretty easy - they all tend to move in concert with one another. I accurately predicted the auction price of the punch on breast Brasher doubloon through this method - even tho it hadn't been sold in decades.
If the Langbords were to win, the 1933 would be at most a $1mil. coin. After all, how do we know that they don't have ANOTHER 10?
We also don't know if there are another 10 1927-d saints hiding out somewhere as well. For now, I don't see the 1933 saints being worth anything less than the 27-d. If anything, the history behind the 1933's is now far more alluring and will tend to keep their prices higher.....assuming another 20-30 aren't found.
Prediction and Fact are not equivalent. If a "price guide" is based on predictions, then it should state that in the introduction.
The above does not conflict with the utility of what Tradedollarnut and many others do to make predictions. Additionally, I expect that the published revised price will be a reasonable number IF the Langboard coins come to market. But, until that happens there is only one open market record for the 1933 DE.
PS: The number available would grow to 11 if the Langboard coins become marketable. The two Smithsonian coins are permanently encumbered and have no market value. Others might turn up – or might not.
It is my understanding that when the NGC news release about it grading the 10 1933 double eagles that are the subject of the pending lawsuit was made public in early November, 2009, there was no settlement afoot.
Me thinks that the lawsuit is heading in a direction where a resolution that avoids a trial will be forthcoming.
If the court rules on the two pending motions in manner whereby the scope of the case is limited to the CAFRA Forfeiture proceeding only with only the Langbords asserting a Claim to the ten double eagles, such a ruling would only speed up the ultimate resolution of the case.
Saint Guru mentions L'il Kim.
Is the government in a dispute with this young female rapper?
You would think the government would focus its energies on nations like,...................... North Korea instead of a rapper
Prices are not "set in stone" but they should represent some aggregation of actual sales - that is the "guide" part. If, on the other hand, it is based on "predictions" - no matter how reliable in the past - then it is not a "price guide" but a "price predictor." The two are not the same: one is based on facts (sales) the other is based on assumption about what might or might not occur (prediction).
Price "guide" does not connote past tense to me - I would think Price "record' or Price "Reporter' would be the title if it was rearward looking rather than forward.
I always though of "realized" being based on reportings of past sales and "guides" being the best estimate of near-future/current sales prices, based on past sales, the direction the market is heading, new specimens being discovered, etc.
Want to buy an auction catalog for the William Hesslein Sale (December 2, 1926). Thanks to all those who have helped us obtain the others!!!
<< <i>Prices are not "set in stone" but they should represent some aggregation of actual sales - that is the "guide" part. If, on the other hand, it is based on "predictions" - no matter how reliable in the past - then it is not a "price guide" but a "price predictor." The two are not the same: one is based on facts (sales) the other is based on assumption about what might or might not occur (prediction). >>
I would hesitate to pay attention to any guide that failed to utilize all pertinent information avaliable in setting its numbers.
For decades, the 1884 trade dollar sold for about 40% of an equivalent 1885 - but the 1885's traded much much less frequently. Are you really saying that a price guide should ignore a relevant data point - such as a recent sale of an 1884 - in pricing an 1885?
From the million dollar coin club writeup. I tend to agree with these values:
1933 $20, MS65 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000 to $3,500,000 (16 to 18 coins, perhaps more). There are approximately 16 to 18 known 1933 $20 Saint-Gaudens, including the ten specimens currently held by the government which are part of a legal battle to determine their legal status. There is one coin which grades an estimated MS65 that sold for $7.59 million at auction in 2002. This is the only example of this rarity which may be legally owned. In 2005, ten more specimens were turned in to the government and those ten coins are currently the subject of a lawsuit by the owners (the Switt family) seeking to have the coins returned to them with the declaration that they are legal to own. The Smithsonian Institution has two examples of the 1933 $20 in their collection and there are a rumored two or three other 1933 $20 gold pieces that may exist. It is our estimate that the 1933 $20 gold pieces that grade MS65, if they were legal to own, would bring $2.5 to $3.5 million each at auction. If the government wins its case and the ten coins it is holding are not legal to own, then the value of the one to four coins outside of government control would increase to well beyond the $3,500,000 price. PCGS Coin# 9195
Comments
Ron
<< <i>I thought the 10 Langboard coins were certified by NGC. Wouldn't the increase in population reports between the two services be enough to lower estimated value?
Ron >>
They were certified by NGC. What is still unknown, is whether they will become legal to own. Either way, some of us here have speculated, it is that very prospect which led to the reduced value in the price guide.
<< <i>IF the 10 are legal, the value of the coins are probably in the $1-1.5 mil. range.
Right now, even if they aren't legalized I think the one coin is, in fact, worth about $3 mil.!
I had a notion of why the price dropped. I just wanted to hear opinions. Just KNOWING for sure that there are 10 more (and probably more than that) makes the "magic" of the sole legal one devalue. >>
I'm not sure I buy into this 100%.
The existance of the other 10 coins was known long ago. That 'loss of magic' was long ago.
The downward change in the PCGS price guide was recent. If I were to guess, it seems to have more to do with a recent general public perception of economic malaise.
Now, if the price reduction on the PCGS guide corresponded in time more closely to the discovery of the other 10, then i'd buy into your logic a bit more.
Perhaps I misunderstood the nature of your comment. Care to clarify?
JD: Yeah.
HRH: Whatcha think?
JD: Well, there's no way I'm paying what the guide says.
HRH: Me neither. I'd pay . . . I don't know, maybe $3.5MM for one of the nicer ones. What about you?
JD: Sounds about right.
HRH: Yeah. But we better call Laura.
<< <i>
<< <i>I thought the 10 Langboard coins were certified by NGC. Wouldn't the increase in population reports between the two services be enough to lower estimated value?
Ron >>
They were certified by NGC. What is still unknown, is whether they will become legal to own. Either way, some of us here have speculated, it is that very prospect which led to the reduced value in the price guide. >>
I guess the point I was trying to convey was, does it really matter the status of the coins or any coins when part of the criteria to the coins value is it's known population.
For example, wasn't there a large hoard of Orphan Annie Dimes that was trying to be unloaded at one time in bulk raw. What would have happened to the price guides if all of these coins were graded first, then offered as a single lot. I honestly believe with the pop reports skyrocketing, it would have drove the price guides down as well. Even though the coins were still only available as a single lot.
Perhaps apples and oranges though..
<< <i>
<< <i>IF the 10 are legal, the value of the coins are probably in the $1-1.5 mil. range.
Right now, even if they aren't legalized I think the one coin is, in fact, worth about $3 mil.!
I had a notion of why the price dropped. I just wanted to hear opinions. Just KNOWING for sure that there are 10 more (and probably more than that) makes the "magic" of the sole legal one devalue. >>
I'm not sure I buy into this 100%.
The existance of the other 10 coins was known long ago. That 'loss of magic' was long ago.
The downward change in the PCGS price guide was recent. If I were to guess, it seems to have more to do with a recent general public perception of economic malaise.
Now, if the price reduction on the PCGS guide corresponded in time more closely to the discovery of the other 10, then i'd buy into your logic a bit more.
Perhaps I misunderstood the nature of your comment. Care to clarify? >>
This is merely speculation on my part, but when I saw that the Langbord coins had been certified, that made me think a settlement of the lawsuit was more likely. Which in turn makes their sale more likely. And that lowers the value of the one which is currently legal to own. In other words, even an increase in the odds that there will be 10 or more additional legal examples, affects the perceived value of the one coin.
Perhaps the prices changed now just because they got around to it now. Perhaps it is unreasonable of me to read in to the timing of this to try to link it to some other event.
I wish the government would deal with Ahmadinejad and Li'l Kim with the same veracity as we are the Langbords!
Tenacity, too.
<< <i>But even then, the coins were graded by NGC long ago. And the price guide change is recent.
Perhaps the prices changed now just because they got around to it now. Perhaps it is unreasonable of me to read in to the timing of this to try to link it to some other event. >>
I think it was only about 2 months ago that the news of the NGC certification came out.
Cant you read?
Important: The PCGS Price Guide prices apply only to PCGS-graded coins.
Or maybe somebody is trying to sneak through a crossover attempt without anyone noticing?
Assigning values to ultra rarities is actually pretty easy - they all tend to move in concert with one another. I accurately predicted the auction price of the punch on breast Brasher doubloon through this method - even tho it hadn't been sold in decades.
We also don't know if there are another 10 1927-d saints hiding out somewhere as well. For now, I don't see the 1933 saints being worth anything less than the 27-d. If anything, the history behind the 1933's is now far more alluring and will tend to keep their prices higher.....assuming another 20-30 aren't found.
roadrunner
The above does not conflict with the utility of what Tradedollarnut and many others do to make predictions. Additionally, I expect that the published revised price will be a reasonable number IF the Langboard coins come to market. But, until that happens there is only one open market record for the 1933 DE.
PS: The number available would grow to 11 if the Langboard coins become marketable. The two Smithsonian coins are permanently encumbered and have no market value. Others might turn up – or might not.
Me thinks that the lawsuit is heading in a direction where a resolution that avoids a trial will be forthcoming.
If the court rules on the two pending motions in manner whereby the scope of the case is limited to the CAFRA Forfeiture proceeding only with only the Langbords asserting a Claim to the ten double eagles, such a ruling would only speed up the ultimate resolution of the case.
Saint Guru mentions L'il Kim.
Is the government in a dispute with this young female rapper?
You would think the government would focus its energies on nations like,...................... North Korea instead of a rapper
Why? What is there about the word "Guide" that makes you think the prices are set in stone?
<< <i>Prices are not "set in stone" but they should represent some aggregation of actual sales - that is the "guide" part. If, on the other hand, it is based on "predictions" - no matter how reliable in the past - then it is not a "price guide" but a "price predictor." The two are not the same: one is based on facts (sales) the other is based on assumption about what might or might not occur (prediction). >>
I would hesitate to pay attention to any guide that failed to utilize all pertinent information avaliable in setting its numbers.
For decades, the 1884 trade dollar sold for about 40% of an equivalent 1885 - but the 1885's traded much much less frequently. Are you really saying that a price guide should ignore a relevant data point - such as a recent sale of an 1884 - in pricing an 1885?
1933 $20, MS65 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000 to $3,500,000 (16 to 18 coins, perhaps more). There are approximately 16 to 18 known 1933 $20 Saint-Gaudens, including the ten specimens currently held by the government which are part of a legal battle to determine their legal status. There is one coin which grades an estimated MS65 that sold for $7.59 million at auction in 2002. This is the only example of this rarity which may be legally owned. In 2005, ten more specimens were turned in to the government and those ten coins are currently the subject of a lawsuit by the owners (the Switt family) seeking to have the coins returned to them with the declaration that they are legal to own. The Smithsonian Institution has two examples of the 1933 $20 in their collection and there are a rumored two or three other 1933 $20 gold pieces that may exist. It is our estimate that the 1933 $20 gold pieces that grade MS65, if they were legal to own, would bring $2.5 to $3.5 million each at auction. If the government wins its case and the ten coins it is holding are not legal to own, then the value of the one to four coins outside of government control would increase to well beyond the $3,500,000 price. PCGS Coin# 9195
1933 $20 St. Gaudens, MS65 (estimated grade) - $3,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Smithsonian), MS65 (estimated grade) - $3,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Smithsonian), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Switt family), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Switt family), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Switt family), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Switt family), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Switt family), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Switt family), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Switt family), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Switt family), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Switt family), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Switt family), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (Ex-Texas bank collection), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (rumored), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
1933 $20 St. Gaudens (rumored), MS64 (estimated grade) - $2,500,000
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