Trend, or Sign of the Times?
Obiwancanoli
Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭
I admit it... I buy coins via Ebay. For the moment, there's not a convenient, local B&M near me, I don't know anyone in my meighborhood (so to speak) that's a collector as well, and I haven't personally met anyone on this forum who might serve as a resource for the coins I'm interested in. Thusly do I spend my time - as carefully as the circumstance will allow - searching, watching, learning as I go.
Hard to know how successful I've been, but I've noticed something lately, and wonder if anyone else is having similar results.
It doesn't happen all the time, of course, but I've found that more often than not, my admittedly limited tallent for discerning the quality of a coin seems not nearly as accurate as I'd hoped. By that I mean that coins I choose to watch, as much as I can determine from the pix, seem not to auction for nearly the amounts I sometimes feel they would otherwise command. In short, it appears I'm assigning a greater value to the end result than the coins actually sell for.
Many of these coins I watch seem excellent examples of the series, or at least, of high enough quality to pique my interest. And as I attempt to determine their likely value, based on a grade I guesstimate, I'm finding that many coins I'm certain are top quality simply do not auction for nearly the amount the highest grade I might assign would justify. When that happens, I could kick myself in the backside for not bidding the coin beyond the end result, since I wouldn't have watched the coin if I weren't interested in the first place.
For example, this 1873 Seated Liberty Half Dime appears to me to be at least MS-63, and may more nearly be accurately graded MS-64. I believe MS-65 might be a stretch, but even at 64, FMV is about $800 +/-. And yet, it sold for much less. I would have bought the darn thing, but I've already spent too much, and haven't even started my Christmas shopping!
There are tens of other examples I could cite, coins I've watched for no more reason that to see how accurate my estimate of value a particular coin might auction for. It often surprises me that I've gotten so close in my estimates, yet I have no illusions that QDB had better watch his back! Far be it from me to assume such arrogant pomposity.
Still, I can't help but wonder if some coins today simply aren't selling for what various guides might suggest. I check the greysheet, PCGS, the US Coins guide, and anything else I can, in order to get a feel for what a coin could - or should - command at auction. I set my limits, and rarely bid (if I am bidding a coin) more than the guidelines I've set. If auction bids are higher than my estimates, I almost always let the coin pass. Another will come along.
Is it possible there are fewer coins being sold at higher prices due to the economy? Are fewer people bidding? Is it simply the holidays, and traditional coin buyers are spending their dollars elsewhere? Is there some trend I don't recognize which is sending some coin values sinking below what greater minds than mine have noted they're worth?
Hard to know how successful I've been, but I've noticed something lately, and wonder if anyone else is having similar results.
It doesn't happen all the time, of course, but I've found that more often than not, my admittedly limited tallent for discerning the quality of a coin seems not nearly as accurate as I'd hoped. By that I mean that coins I choose to watch, as much as I can determine from the pix, seem not to auction for nearly the amounts I sometimes feel they would otherwise command. In short, it appears I'm assigning a greater value to the end result than the coins actually sell for.
Many of these coins I watch seem excellent examples of the series, or at least, of high enough quality to pique my interest. And as I attempt to determine their likely value, based on a grade I guesstimate, I'm finding that many coins I'm certain are top quality simply do not auction for nearly the amount the highest grade I might assign would justify. When that happens, I could kick myself in the backside for not bidding the coin beyond the end result, since I wouldn't have watched the coin if I weren't interested in the first place.
For example, this 1873 Seated Liberty Half Dime appears to me to be at least MS-63, and may more nearly be accurately graded MS-64. I believe MS-65 might be a stretch, but even at 64, FMV is about $800 +/-. And yet, it sold for much less. I would have bought the darn thing, but I've already spent too much, and haven't even started my Christmas shopping!
There are tens of other examples I could cite, coins I've watched for no more reason that to see how accurate my estimate of value a particular coin might auction for. It often surprises me that I've gotten so close in my estimates, yet I have no illusions that QDB had better watch his back! Far be it from me to assume such arrogant pomposity.
Still, I can't help but wonder if some coins today simply aren't selling for what various guides might suggest. I check the greysheet, PCGS, the US Coins guide, and anything else I can, in order to get a feel for what a coin could - or should - command at auction. I set my limits, and rarely bid (if I am bidding a coin) more than the guidelines I've set. If auction bids are higher than my estimates, I almost always let the coin pass. Another will come along.
Is it possible there are fewer coins being sold at higher prices due to the economy? Are fewer people bidding? Is it simply the holidays, and traditional coin buyers are spending their dollars elsewhere? Is there some trend I don't recognize which is sending some coin values sinking below what greater minds than mine have noted they're worth?
UBERCOINER
A Truth That's Told With Bad Intent
Beats All The Lies You Can Invent
A Truth That's Told With Bad Intent
Beats All The Lies You Can Invent
0
Comments
the given seller is known to shill bid his own auctions (as has been demonstrated on this forum many a times).
also the coin is not certified.
while you give the grade a nice high grade (you say ms when the coin is clearly a proof,...) does not really mean thats what the coin is.
have you won any of the sellers coins and subsequently submitted it and got the grade you were thinking?
doubtful.
my quess is that 1873 is HEAVILY hairlined and would not get a pf63. it FOR SURE would not get a 64.
my guess is a 61 or 62 and if you get really lucky a 63.
$446 is 31 over greyhseet for a properly graded 63 coin.
I think somebody is going to be quite unhappy if it gets submitted.
I would love to be proven wrong though....
edited for spelling
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
<< <i>first of all obi- you answered you own question with your link.
the given seller is known to shill bid his own auctions (as has been demonstrated on this forum many a times).
also the coin is not certified.
while you give the grade a nice high grade (you say ms when the coin is clearly a proof,...) does not really mean thats what the coin is.
have you won any of the sellers coins and subsequently submitted it and got the grade you were thinking?
doubtful.
my quess is that 1873 is HEAVILY hairlined and would not get a pf63. it FOR SURE would not get a 64.
my guess is a 61 or 62 and if you get really lucky a 63.
$446 is 31 over greyhseet for a properly graded 63 coin.
I think somebody is going to be quite unhappy if it gets submitted.
I would love to be proven wrong though....
edited for spelling >>
Once more I am proven to be a rookie in training... MS vs. proof... what was I thinking?
I'd read about the points you mentioned, joe... thanks. If one learns from one's mistakes, someday I'm gonna be a genius!
A Truth That's Told With Bad Intent
Beats All The Lies You Can Invent
A person buying raw high value coins best know what they are doing, both in terms of grading, and in terms of authenticity. I'd estimate that to be less than 10% of collectors, less than 1% of those with fewer than five years of experience.
Even with certified coins, photography technique or photography enhancement, or deliberately fuzzy photographs can mislead. Be careful out there.
O B 1
I too am a big buyer on eBay not for the reasons you mentioned but because I have
way more time to seach there for coins I want rather than the local B&Ms. There are
fair, good and bad deals out there but you have to seek the knowledge of buying off
eBay. Like many things in life trial & error are a very good educator to any one.
A couple of things I have learned is to stay away from raw coins if I don't know enough
to see a good one from a bad one. Slabed coins mostly the costly ones need to be TPGed.
Two of the most important things to me is that the picture of the coin in the auction is a
PICTURE and not some stupid looking scan that you can't tell anything about the coin. Even
with real pictures like everyone says, they can be altered to look good but that is where you
will learn by doing when the coin gets to ya. Another major thing is to ASK QUESTIONS of the
seller but then you have to hope he ain't some scum sucking lying dog but I have found that for
the most part the sellers on eBay with good feedback tell the truth about the coin, have a little faith.
Yes eBay is a good way to get what ya want and do not forget Teletrade or Heritage auctions, lots of
good stuff there. Just like the Bay tho you need to use the talents you will learn on those sites also.
ebay auction
The linked coin was purchased raw from a seller saying it was MS64+++. The buyer submitted and it came back in a problem holder. Looks like the buyer of the raw coin, is going to lose 50%+ after fees. Ouch. Looks like the original poster may have dodged a similar fate.
Again, be careful out there. Bargains at true auction are unlikely for those that are novices at grading. Those with five years or less in the hobby, tend to be mostly still in the novice category as far as grading. Yes, there are a few exceptions, but those few tend to have made a major effort towards learning to grade and/or have enormous natural talent. Collectors buying a few coins here and there, exclusively over the Internet, will tend to progress more slowly in terms of learning to grade, than collectors that are seeing large numbers of coins in hand.
/edit to add: the cycle might repeat over again, as the buyer of the problem coin might crack it out and sell it raw, with the requisite song and a dance about a possible lofty grade, and lofty valuation.
nothing else needs to be said.
2. learn to know when a pic is almost impossible to determine the
true grade. ESPECIALLY proof coins.
3. ask a few people here via private message what they think before
bidding. heck, ask the whole forum. most here will not bid on the coin
unless you find something truly truly special.
4. play the guess the grade threads and really really try to get it
right. until you are really close do not buy much off ebay.
5. rinse wash and repeat.
Rules to save money by:
If it's a supposedly mint state mid-20th C. or earlier coin on ebay, and it's not slabbed, you would make money betting it was a problem coin.
If it's a better date coin of any series on ebay, and it's not slabbed, it's a problem coin or a fake.
Yes, you'll miss the 1% of good raw coins on ebay, but it's a lot less expensive.
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