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mtg alpha common / uncommon pop?
nuhurricane
Posts: 59
ok so i know there were 1100 of each rare printed- and 2.6 mil print run - but i've been googling this morning and can't figure out how many of each uncommon were made. assuming the 1/3/13 2/13/45 when you take into account the land percentage in wrong spot ~ you'd get something like:
2.600.000 = (r) + (u) + (c)
(r) = 1100 * 116 * 1.0331= 131 823.56 ---- not sure on this one but adding in chance for land in rare slot because i still think # of rares printed is a known number 3.31% land / rare spot
(umax) = ((1100*116)/95)*6.5*0.785= 6 853.46316 ---- 21.5% land in u spot
(umin) = ((1100*116)/95)*3*0.785= 3 163.13684
w/out the /95's = 651 079 total uncommons max
w/out the /95's = 300 498 total min
(umax) > each uncommon > (umin)
6,854 > each uncommon > 3163
(cmax) = ((1100*116)/74)*22.5*0.6198= 24 046.5649 ---- 38.02% land in c spot
(cmin) = ((1100*116)/74)*13*0.6198= 13 893.5708
w/out 74's= 1 779 445 max common
w/out 74's= 1 028 124 min common
(cmax) > c > (cmin)
24,047 > c > 13894
man it has been a while since i've done a lot of math - i'm sure you can get this into a graph somehow and see various probabilities. hrm let's try x=%starters and using w/land% in
2600000=(r)+(u)+(c)
2600000=(131824) + (651079)(x) + (1-x)(300498) + (1779445)(x) + (102824)(1-x)
2600000=131824 + 651079x + 300498 - 300498x + 1779445x +102824 - 102824x
2600000=535146 +2027202x
2064854=2027202x hrm that mean x>1 = wrong gotta facter out land i guess
ok w/out land% in let's see if better #.
2600000=(r)+(u)+(c)
2600000=(131824) + (829400)(x) + (1-x)(382800) + (2871000)(x) + ( 1658800)(1-x)
2600000=131824+829400x+382800-382800x+2871000x+1658800-1658800x
2600000=1658800x+2173424
426576=1658800x
x=257 or 25.7% starters- now that could work- lets backtrack again now and figure out how many of each uncommon / common with these numbers- this could be fruitful
(u-land) = ((651079)(.257)+(.743)(300498))/95
(c-land) = ((1779445)(.257)+(.743)(102824))/74
taking into account % land / my math on booster / starter
4111.5 copies of each uncommon
7212 copies of each common
anyone can see some flaws in my math or does this work out?
edit- argh comon is not cmax>c>cmin so i think i screwed that up i'll go back and check later though i need a lil break
2.600.000 = (r) + (u) + (c)
(r) = 1100 * 116 * 1.0331= 131 823.56 ---- not sure on this one but adding in chance for land in rare slot because i still think # of rares printed is a known number 3.31% land / rare spot
(umax) = ((1100*116)/95)*6.5*0.785= 6 853.46316 ---- 21.5% land in u spot
(umin) = ((1100*116)/95)*3*0.785= 3 163.13684
w/out the /95's = 651 079 total uncommons max
w/out the /95's = 300 498 total min
(umax) > each uncommon > (umin)
6,854 > each uncommon > 3163
(cmax) = ((1100*116)/74)*22.5*0.6198= 24 046.5649 ---- 38.02% land in c spot
(cmin) = ((1100*116)/74)*13*0.6198= 13 893.5708
w/out 74's= 1 779 445 max common
w/out 74's= 1 028 124 min common
(cmax) > c > (cmin)
24,047 > c > 13894
man it has been a while since i've done a lot of math - i'm sure you can get this into a graph somehow and see various probabilities. hrm let's try x=%starters and using w/land% in
2600000=(r)+(u)+(c)
2600000=(131824) + (651079)(x) + (1-x)(300498) + (1779445)(x) + (102824)(1-x)
2600000=131824 + 651079x + 300498 - 300498x + 1779445x +102824 - 102824x
2600000=535146 +2027202x
2064854=2027202x hrm that mean x>1 = wrong gotta facter out land i guess
ok w/out land% in let's see if better #.
2600000=(r)+(u)+(c)
2600000=(131824) + (829400)(x) + (1-x)(382800) + (2871000)(x) + ( 1658800)(1-x)
2600000=131824+829400x+382800-382800x+2871000x+1658800-1658800x
2600000=1658800x+2173424
426576=1658800x
x=257 or 25.7% starters- now that could work- lets backtrack again now and figure out how many of each uncommon / common with these numbers- this could be fruitful
(u-land) = ((651079)(.257)+(.743)(300498))/95
(c-land) = ((1779445)(.257)+(.743)(102824))/74
taking into account % land / my math on booster / starter
4111.5 copies of each uncommon
7212 copies of each common
anyone can see some flaws in my math or does this work out?
edit- argh comon is not cmax>c>cmin so i think i screwed that up i'll go back and check later though i need a lil break
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i just woke up and this is frying my brain. i love it!!! i need to come back to it later, but i'm very interested. keep it up!
-will
<< <i>(c-land) = ((1779445)(.257)+(.743)(102824))/74 >>
should be 1028124 then yields
commons: 16503.8 * 95 = 1 567 861
uncommons: 4111.5 * 74 = 304 251
rares: 1100* 117 = 128 700
which would leave: 599188ish lands at the 2.6 mil print run total, or 59919~ of each of the 10 land prints.--- i wonder if this will all hold up
Uncommon: 4,500
Common: 16,000
Land: 85,000
is what I've seen elsewhere - not sure what the original source was though.
<< <i>Rare: 1,100
Uncommon: 4,500
Common: 16,000
Land: 85,000
is what I've seen elsewhere - not sure what the original source was though. >>
Here's another thread where some of the gang posted counts for print runs:
MTG Alpha/Beta land count
Yeah, the thread Tony linked to has all the info you're looking for I think - be sure to check it out
BTW, nice to see you drop in Tony - how's the family doing these days?
Take it easy,
Jared
Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting
Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
As I own a set of uncut Beta AP sheets, I thought I would pass along a quick FYI on the composition of the lands on A/B/U sheets:
* There are 4 "RARE" Islands on the Beta and Unlimited Sheets, 5 on Alpha. 1 of the Alpha Islands was supposed to be the rare dual land Volcanic Island.
* There are 26 Lands on the Uncommon Sheet broken down as 2 Islands, 6 Swamps, 6 Plains, 6 Mountains, 6 Forests.
* There are 41 Lands on the Beta and Unlimited Sheets broken down as 10 Islands, 9 Swamps, 8 Plains, 10 Mountains, 9 Forests. There is one additional land on the Alpha Common sheet that took the spot of the C.O.P Black.
--------------------------------------------------------
Since Dave seems to have a little too much time on his hands these days, I'll toss out a little more information so he can decipher exactly how many of each land picture are available
*Disclaimer, this will ONLY pertain to the Beta and Unlimited sets as I am unsure which land pictures replaced which from the Alpha Sheets as there were only 2 of each picture on the Alpha printing and 3 for Beta and Unl.
Rare Sheet = 4 Islands
2x Islands pic 1 (Blue)
2x Islands pic 2 (red)
Uncommon Sheet = 2 Islands, 6 Forests, 6 Mountains, 6 Plains, 6 Swamps
1x Island pic 1 (blue)
1x Island pic 3 (dark red)
2x Forest pic 1 (shadow)
2x Forest pic 2 (path)
2x Forest pic 3 (eyes)
2x Mountain pic 1 (left snow)
2x Mountain pic 2 (right snow)
2x Mountain pic 3 (no snow)
2x Plains pic 1 (clouds)
2x Plains pic 2 (trees)
2x Plains pic 3 (dark clouds)
2x Swamps pic 1 (low branch)
2x Swamps pic 2 (hi branch)
2x Swamps pic 3 (dark)
Common Sheet = 10 Islands, 9 Forests, 10 Mountains, 8 Plains, 9 Swamps
4x Island pic 1 (blue)
3x Island pic 2 (red)
3x Island pic 3 (dark red)
3x Forest pic 1 (shadow)
3x Forest pic 2 (path)
3x Forest pic 3 (eyes)
4x Mountain pic 1 (left snow)
3x Mountain pic 2 (right snow)
3x Mountain pic 3 (no snow)
2x Plains pic 1 (clouds)
3x Plains pic 2 (trees)
3x Plains pic 3 (dark clouds)
3x Swamps pic 1 (low branch)
3x Swamps pic 2 (hi branch)
3x Swamps pic 3 (dark)
GET TO WORK DAVE, WE DEMAND ANSWERS!!!!!!!!!
I'll see if I can get an answer to exactly what the ratio of Starters and Boosters were for these sets. I know a few peeps up here that might have the answer and will see if they'll share.
<< <i>assuming the 1/3/13 >>
Actual breakdown for boosters were 1R/3U/11C = 15 cards per pack
<< <i>I'll see if I can get an answer to exactly what the ratio of Starters and Boosters were for these sets. I know a few peeps up here that might have the answer and will see if they'll share. >>
Hey Len,
That info's in the other thread too
Take it easy,
Jared
PS - I broke down and got the Alt 4th Jandor's , btw
Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting
Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
Alt 4th Jandor's? You lost me there.
Len
<< <i>DAMN! Nice grade Jared. Out of curiosity, when did they start doing Alternate 4th cards? I remember busting open a case of starters when the hype for this set first started and we sold thru a ton of it. Not sure what we still have laying around but if you are in need of anything to complete a set, I think we have some nice pieces still in the shop. >>
<< <i>As for the offer - thanks Len. I've had my eye on a Jandor's Saddlebags in your inventory for some time now, as it's the last single I need for my 2nd raw set (the one I'm trying to get autographed... don't ask). It's a little more than I'm looking to spend on a bulk rare (plus shipping), but if we ever work out another deal maybe I can get you to toss it in >>
Just goes to show how weak I can be at times...
Take it easy,
Jared
Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting
Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
Take it easy,
Jared
Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
Hypnotized by you if I should linger,
Staring at the ring around your finger" - Sting
Ray Thiel (1964-2007) - the man who showed me more wonderful games & gaming sessions than I ever dreamed possible... you ran out of hit points too young, my friend.
This would simply amazing who calculates this!
I would a free alpha or beta bgs 9.5 or PSA 10 card of my choice (not a land) to the person that determines the true count for alpha, beta, unlimited...
- daniel